Micro Stock Trader Blog | Ang inyong Batangueñong retail stock trader | MONDE Stock Price Review
Nilalaman:
- Panimula
- Stock Price Review Gamit and Hybrid 10-Step Strategy
- Hatol sa Stock: Bibili ba Dadaan Lang?
- Next Move: Plano Pag Tumama o Sumablay
- Layered Accumulation Plan
- Phased Exit Plan
I. Panimula
Ang stock na tinitingnan natin ngayon ay Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE) — isa sa mga malalaking food manufacturers sa bansa, kilala sa Lucky Me! at iba pang household brands.
TRADE DETAILS
Date: July 15, 2025
Stock: Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE)
Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
Timeframes: Weekly
Closing Price: ₱7.94
High: ₱8.14
Low: ₱7.72
20-MA (Short-Term Trend): ₱7.38
200-MA (Long-Term Trend): ₱10.99
Ang pagsusuring ito ay naka-base sa Hybrid 10-Step Strategy 5.0 – Long-Term Focus Variant na ginagamit natin para sa mas estratehikong pagtingin sa presyo ng stock.
II. Stock Price Review Gamit ang Hybrid 10-Step Strategy
Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context
MONDE ay nasa long-term downtrend pa rin. Price ay nasa ibaba ng 200-week MA (₱10.99). Ngunit may signs ng short-term recovery dahil sa price breakout above the 8- at 20-MA.
➡ Verdict: Wait / Early Watch for Reversal
Step 2: Price Position & Long-Term Value Zones
Current price (₱7.94) is above the 20-MA (₱7.38) and 8-MA (₱7.46), pero below pa rin sa 50-MA (₱8.38) at 200-MA (₱10.99).
➡ Verdict: Wait / Near Breakout Area
Step 3: Power Bars, Price Behavior & Volume Shift
May sunod-sunod na green candles with good volume recently, lalo na ‘yung bar na tumama sa ₱8.14. May lumalakas na momentum pero hindi pa solid breakout.
➡ Verdict: Watch for Confirmation
Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Fundamentals & Technical Triggers
Technically, confirmation na lang ang kulang: solid close above ₱8.40 with volume would seal a bullish breakout.
➡ Verdict: Watch for Trigger Candle
Step 5: Stop-Loss Policy Based on Thesis Violation
Kung papasok sa ₱7.90–₱8.10 range, logical stop-loss ay below ₱7.00 — sa ilalim ng recent higher low support band.
➡ Verdict: Valid Stop Setup
Step 6: Color Change Signals for Trend Validation
May shift from red to green candles in the past 3 weeks. MA crossover ng 8-MA above 20-MA ay bullish early sign.
➡ Verdict: Positive Signal Developing
Step 7: Profit-Taking via Valuation and Growth Cycles
Next resistance zones ay ₱8.80, ₱9.80, then ₱10.90. Pwede itong maging stair-step target sa phased exit strategy.
➡ Verdict: Profitable Zone Potential
Step 8: Re-Entry Plans After Market Dips
Magandang re-entry zone ay kung bumalik sa ₱7.40–₱7.60 range na may reversal bar confirmation.
➡ Verdict: Monitor for Retest Pullback
Step 9: Position Size Planning for Long-Term Portfolios
Pwede nang pumasok tactically, pero hindi pa buhos — magsimula sa maliit habang di pa confirm ang breakout.
➡ Verdict: Tactical Entry Only
Step 10: Ethical and Counter-Trend Opportunity Considerations
Hindi applicable ang counter-trend setup ngayon dahil wala pang significant gap-down o extreme undervaluation na below 200-MA ng 5% or more.
➡ Verdict: Not Triggered
III. Final Stock Recommendation
Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD / TACTICAL WATCHLIST
✅ Recommendation: Maghanda para sa possible tactical entry around ₱7.80–₱8.10 range kung mag-confirm ang breakout.
✅ Risk Management: Initial stop-loss sa ₱6.90
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: ₱8.80 → ₱9.80 → ₱10.90
✅ Position Size Strategy: Start with 10%–20% tactical position, magdagdag upon confirmed breakout with volume above ₱8.40.
IV. Next Steps
🔹 Short-term traders → Huwag muna pumasok hangga't walang breakout confirmation.
🔹 Long-term investors → Puwedeng mag-abang ng dip sa ₱7.40–₱7.60 kung may bullish reversal.
🔹 Existing holders → Hold for now; bantayan ang breakout move above ₱8.40.
🚨 Final Thought: Ang bottoming process ay nagaganap na, pero hindi pa ito kumpirmadong reversal. Wag magmadali. Hintayin ang tunay na breakout. 🚨
V. Layered Accumulation Plan (₱10,000 Capital | 1 board lot = 100 shares)
Layer 1 – Tactical Watchlist Entry
🔹 Buy 100 shares @ ₱7.90 = ₱790
🔹 Rationale: Test positioning kung mag-confirm ang trend shift
🔹 Allocation: ₱1,000 (10%)
Layer 2 – Breakout Confirmation Entry
🔹 Buy 200 shares @ ₱8.50 = ₱1,700
🔹 Rationale: Momentum-based entry above resistance
🔹 Allocation: ₱2,000 (20%)
Layer 3 – Retest Support Entry
🔹 Buy 200 shares @ ₱7.50 = ₱1,500
🔹 Rationale: Reversal confirmation sa support zone
🔹 Allocation: ₱1,500 (15%)
Layer 4 – Full Position Only Upon Reversal Confirmation
🔹 Buy 300 shares @ ₱7.20 = ₱2,160
🔹 Rationale: Full conviction level upon confirmation of higher low
🔹 Allocation: ₱2,160 (20%)
Remaining Cash Buffer:
🔹 ₱3,340 for re-entries, future scaling, or capital protection
VI. Phased Exit Plan (Profit Targets-Based)
Target 1 – Partial Exit
🔹 Sell 200 shares @ ₱8.80 = ₱1,760
🔹 Rationale: First resistance level reached
🔹 % Exit: 20%
Target 2 – Main Exit
🔹 Sell 300 shares @ ₱9.80 = ₱2,940
🔹 Rationale: Next key resistance
🔹 % Exit: 30%
Target 3 – Final Exit / Long-Term Hold Zone
🔹 Sell 300 shares @ ₱10.90 = ₱3,270
🔹 Rationale: Full resistance stretch
🔹 % Exit: 30%
Remaining 20% – Optional long-term hold if momentum sustains above ₱11.00
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Paalala lang: Ang post na ito ay para sa informational purposes only at hindi dapat ituring na financial advice. Laging siguraduhing gumawa ng sarili mong research bago pumasok sa kahit anong trade o investment.
No comments:
Post a Comment