ETHICAL TURNAROUND PICKS | Trading Simulation Capital: ₱150,000 | Subok Series
Micro Stock Trader | Ethical and Halal-Conscious Investing in the PSE
Panimula: Tiyaga at Pagtatasa sa Gitna ng Sideways na Galaw
Balikan natin ang PCOR—noong huling review (August 1, 2025), sinabi nating may early signs ng stabilization sa ₱2.45–2.50 zone pero wala pang malinaw na breakout. Ngayon, August 15, makikita na halos kapareho pa rin ang itsura—nakadikit sa 8/20/50-MA pero di pa rin makatawid sa 200-MA na nasa ₱2.98.
Tanong ngayon: ito na ba ang simula ng mas malawak na turnaround, o mananatili pa rin sa matagal na sideways consolidation?
5 Paghahati ng Biglaang Rizq: May Layunin ang Bawat Piso — Subok ng Puso Series #2
₱1,000,000 Walang Kapalit: Subok ng Puso, Hindi Lang ng Strategy
Nilalaman
1️⃣ Weekly Chart Snapshot
2️⃣ Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Evaluation
3️⃣ Hatol ng Batangueñong Trader
4️⃣ Next Steps (Tactical Plan)
5️⃣ Updated Layered Accumulation Plan
6️⃣ Updated Phased Exit Plan
7️⃣ Final Trade Recommendation
8️⃣ Closing Reflection
1️⃣ Weekly Chart Snapshot
Date: August 15, 2025
Stock: Petron Corporation (PCOR)
Exchange: PSE
Timeframes: Weekly (primary), Daily (supporting)
Closing Price: ₱2.46
High: ₱2.54
Low: ₱2.46
20-MA (Short-Term): ₱2.43
50-MA (Mid-Term): ₱2.46
200-MA (Long-Term): ₱2.98
2️⃣ Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Evaluation
Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context
Consolidation pa rin. Price hovering sa base pero di pa rin makabreakout.
➡ Verdict: WAIT
✅ Score: 7/10
Step 2: Price Position & Long-Term Value Zones
Price nasa ibabaw ng 8/20/50-MA cluster pero malayo sa 200-MA. Good stabilization, pero hindi pa bullish.
➡ Verdict: HOLD CAUTIOUSLY
✅ Score: 7/10
Step 3: Power Bars, Price Behavior & Volume Shift
Volume mababa, candles maliit—walang strong momentum.
➡ Verdict: WAIT
✅ Score: 4/10
Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Fundamentals & Technical Triggers
No strong trigger, pero support hold valid. Tactical plays only.
➡ Verdict: TEST BUY ONLY
✅ Score: 5/10
Step 5: Stop-Loss Policy Based on Thesis Violation, Not Noise
Clear invalidation if breakdown below ₱2.35.
➡ Verdict: VALID
✅ Score: 10/10
Step 6: Color Change Signals for Trend Validation
Walang clear green crossover signal pa.
➡ Verdict: NO CONFIRMATION
✅ Score: 3/10
Step 7: Profit-Taking via Valuation and Growth Cycles
Targets intact: ₱2.70–₱3.00.
➡ Verdict: REASONABLE
✅ Score: 8/10
Step 8: Re-Entry Plans After Market Dips
Buy zone ₱2.35–2.40 remains valid.
➡ Verdict: READY
✅ Score: 9/10
Step 9: Position Size Planning for Long-Term Portfolios
Layer 1 only. Risk-managed.
➡ Verdict: GOOD
✅ Score: 9/10
Step 10: Ethical and Counter-Trend Opportunity Considerations
Still Shariah-compliant turnaround stock.
➡ Verdict: ALLOWED
✅ Score: 8/10
🧮 Total Score: 70 / 100
(Same total as Aug 1 review—confirming na sideways mode pa rin.)
3️⃣ Hatol ng Batangueñong Trader
Parang bangkang nakatali sa pampang—gumagalaw pero di pa rin makaalpas. Ang PCOR ay nasa tiyaga mode. Hindi pa panahon ng malakas na layag, kaya bantay muna at huwag padalos-dalos.
4️⃣ Next Steps (Tactical Plan)
📌 Entry Price Ranges: ₱2.35–2.40 (test re-entry), ₱2.48–2.52 (base hold)
📌 Stop-Loss Level: Below ₱2.35
📌 Target Prices: ₱2.70, ₱2.85, ₱3.00
📌 Add/Trim Plan: Add only on breakout > ₱2.55 with volume
📌 Position Strategy: Small tactical exposure only
5️⃣ Updated Layered Accumulation Plan (₱75,000 Allocation)
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Layer 1 (Executed): ₱2.50 | 10,000 shares | ₱25,000 (July 17, 2025)
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Layer 2 (Support Zone): ₱2.35 | 10,000 shares | ₱23,500
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Layer 3 (Breakout Add-on): ₱2.55 | 10,000 shares | ₱25,500
Total Committed: ₱74,000 (≈99% of capital)
Remaining Cash Buffer: ₱1,000
6️⃣ Updated Phased Exit Plan
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Target 1: ₱2.70 | Trim 30% (9,000 shares)
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Target 2: ₱2.85 | Exit 50% (15,000 shares)
-
Target 3: ₱3.00 | Exit remaining 20% (6,000 shares)
🔴 Hard Stop: Breakdown below ₱2.35
7️⃣ Final Trade Recommendation
Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD / WAIT TO ADD
✅ Recommendation: Hold existing tactical position. Add only on breakout over ₱2.55 or dip near ₱2.35 with reversal signal.
✅ Risk Management: Hard stop below ₱2.35.
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Phased exits at ₱2.70, ₱2.85, ₱3.00.
✅ Position Size Strategy: Stay small; gradual adds only on breakout confirmation.
8️⃣ Closing Reflection
Sa trading, hindi lang tapang kundi tiyaga ang puhunan. Ang PCOR ay parang binhi—hindi agad tutubo, pero kung aalagaan ng disiplina, maaari ring magbunga. Ang mahalaga: wag magmadali, wag sumugal ng sobra.
📌 Trade Simulation Update – Subok Series
Portfolio: Ethical Turnaround Picks
Capital Allocation: ₱75,000
Active Position: 10,000 shares @ ₱2.50 | Current P/L: -1.6%
Quick Hatol: Stable pa rin, pero hindi pa “go time.”
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Paalala lang: Ang post na ito ay para sa informational purposes only at hindi dapat ituring na financial advice. Laging siguraduhing gumawa ng sarili mong research bago pumasok sa kahit anong trade o investment.
Isang koleksyon ng edukasyonal, mindset-based, at strategic posts para sa retail traders na may disiplina sa plano at malasakit sa galaw ng merkado. Para sa maliit ang puhunan, pero malawak ang pag-iisip — at paninindigang Batangueño.
