Showing posts with label Trade Evaluation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trade Evaluation. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 5, 2025

MONDE Trade Evaluation: Trade No. 5/20 – Phase 2 Live Testing Review & Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Performance (Feb 5, 2025)

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

Trade Details

  • Trade No.: 5/20
  • Date: February 5, 2025
  • Action: Buy
  • Entry Type: Momentum Entry from Early Reversal Attempt
  • Signal: Breakout Above Recent Support with Strong Green Bar
  • Stock: Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE)
  • Shares Bought: Last 500 out of 1200 shares allocated (completing full position)
  • Entry Price: ₱7.79
  • Position Size: Full allocation completed

📌 Chart Overview:

  • Daily Chart: MONDE posted a strong +8.06% gain, closing at ₱7.78 with a volume surge of 13.978M shares, showing renewed interest and an early reversal signal.
  • The price is now above ₱7.50 and approaching the 20-MA (₱7.28), a critical short-term resistance level.
  • The 200-MA (₱9.67) remains well above, indicating that MONDE is still in a longer-term downtrend.
  • Monthly Chart: The price action shows a potential bottoming attempt, with MONDE bouncing from multi-year lows. However, the 20-MA (₱9.12) remains a key resistance level.
MONDE stock price monthly chart analysis for live testing under Hybrid 10-Step Strategy as of February 5, 2025.

MONDE Trade No. 5/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Monthly Chart

MONDE stock price daily chart analysis for live testing under Hybrid 10-Step Strategy as of February 5, 2025.

MONDE Trade No. 5/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Daily Chart

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

(Each step scored out of 10 based on trade alignment with strategy.)

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context - Score: 7/10

  • MONDE is in a long-term downtrend but has shown strong signs of a short-term bottom.
  • A recovery attempt is underway, but confirmation is needed above ₱8.00-₱8.50.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels - Score: 8/10

  • Price is now trading slightly above key support levels but remains under major resistance zones (₱8.50-₱9.00).
  • Break above ₱8.00 would confirm a short-term bullish structure.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 9/10

  • Strong green candle with increasing volume confirms buying pressure.
  • A close above ₱7.80 signals continuation potential.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels - Score: 8/10

  • Entry aligns with a bullish move past recent support.
  • A break above ₱8.00-₱8.50 would further validate bullish momentum.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 9/10

  • Stop-loss set below ₱7.50 ensures controlled downside risk.
  • A deeper pullback below ₱7.30 would invalidate the trade setup.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation - Score: 8/10

  • Bullish price action with strong volume confirms upward momentum.
  • Needs continuation above ₱8.00 for stronger validation.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 9/10

  • First target: ₱8.50 (next major resistance).
  • Final target: ₱9.50-₱10.00 (longer-term retracement zone).

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 7/10

  • A pullback to ₱7.60-₱7.70 could offer another entry opportunity.
  • Breakout above ₱8.00-₱8.50 justifies adding more exposure.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management - Score: 8/10

  • Full allocation deployed, limiting further scaling.
  • Risk management is crucial near resistance levels.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 7/10

  • Not a counter-trend trade, but caution is needed near ₱8.50 resistance.
  • Failure to hold ₱7.50 could lead to further downside.

📌 Overall Strategy Score: 80/100

📌 Summary: Trade was well-executed based on momentum confirmation, but resistance near ₱8.50 must be monitored.

Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 8.0/10

✅ Trade Execution: Entry positioned at a breakout level, aligning with short-term trend reversal.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss at ₱7.50 ensures controlled downside risk.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: First target at ₱8.50, scaling out at ₱9.50-₱10.00.

✅ Position Size Strategy: Full allocation, requiring strict risk management.

Next Steps

📌 Monitor price action near ₱8.00-₱8.50. If MONDE holds this level, consider holding the position for further gains.

📌 Watch for weakness below ₱7.50. If momentum weakens, reassess the trade and adjust stop-loss accordingly.

📌 Look for re-entry opportunities. If MONDE retests ₱7.60 and holds, consider adding more exposure in future setups.

🚨 Conclusion: Trade No. 5 remains strong, with a bullish outlook. A move above ₱8.50 would confirm further upside, while a break below ₱7.50 would require caution. 🚨

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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URC Trade Evaluation: Trade No. 5/20 – Phase 2 Live Testing Review & Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Performance (Feb 5, 2025)

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

Trade Details

  • Trade No.: 5/20
  • Date: February 5, 2025
  • Action: Buy
  • Entry Type: Short-Term Reversal Attempt at Multi-Year Lows (Monthly Chart)
  • Signal: Strong bullish momentum with increasing volume
  • Stock: Universal Robina Corporation (URC)
  • Shares Bought: Last 20 out of 70 shares allocated (completing full position)
  • Entry Price: ₱61.65
  • Position Size: Full allocation completed

📌 Chart Overview:

  • Daily Chart: URC posted a strong green candle, closing at ₱61.65 (+6.38%), showing initial recovery from oversold conditions.
  • Volume surged to 3.506M, confirming renewed interest in the stock.
  • The 20-MA (₱68.15) remains above, serving as the first resistance level.
  • The 200-MA (₱95.74) remains significantly above, indicating the long-term trend is still bearish.
  • Monthly Chart: URC is at a multi-year low, indicating potential mean reversion if a sustained rally occurs.

URC stock price monthly chart analysis for live testing under Hybrid 10-Step Strategy as of February 5, 2025.

URC Trade No. 5/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Monthly Chart

URC stock price monthly chart analysis for live testing under Hybrid 10-Step Strategy as of February 5, 2025.

URC Trade No. 5/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Daily Chart

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

(Each step scored out of 10 based on trade alignment with strategy.)

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context - Score: 7/10

  • URC is in a long-term downtrend but has shown a strong daily recovery.
  • First signs of reversal appear, but confirmation is needed above ₱65.00-₱68.00.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels - Score: 7/10

  • Price is still below both the 20-MA (₱68.15) and 200-MA (₱95.74), meaning bearish pressure persists.
  • Entry near ₱61.65 aligns with short-term retracement potential, but resistance remains overhead.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 9/10

  • Strong green candle on high volume suggests a potential shift in momentum.
  • If price can hold above ₱60.00, a higher low structure may form.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels - Score: 8/10

  • Entry at ₱61.65 aligns with the daily green candle confirmation.
  • A break above ₱65.00-₱68.00 would confirm a bullish continuation.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 9/10

  • Stop-loss set below ₱58.50 ensures controlled downside risk.
  • A breakdown below ₱57.50 would invalidate the trade setup.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation - Score: 8/10

  • Bullish price action with strong volume confirms upward momentum.
  • Needs continuation above ₱63.00-₱65.00 to further confirm.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 9/10

  • First target: ₱68.00 (20-MA resistance).
  • Final target: ₱75.00-₱80.00 (next major resistance zone).

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 7/10

  • A pullback to ₱60.50-₱61.00 could offer another entry.
  • Breakout above ₱65.00 justifies scaling further into the position.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management - Score: 8/10

  • Full allocation deployed, limiting further scaling.
  • Risk management is crucial near resistance levels.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 7/10

  • Not a counter-trend trade, but caution is needed near ₱68.00 resistance.
  • Failure to hold ₱60.00 could lead to further downside.

📌 Overall Strategy Score: 79/100

📌 Summary: Trade was well-executed based on momentum confirmation, but resistance near ₱68.00 must be monitored.

Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 7.9/10

✅ Trade Execution: Entry positioned at a breakout level, aligning with short-term trend reversal.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss at ₱58.50 ensures controlled downside risk.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: First target at ₱68.00, scaling out at ₱75.00-₱80.00.

✅ Position Size Strategy: Full allocation, requiring strict risk management.

Next Steps

📌 Monitor price action near ₱65.00-₱68.00. If URC holds this level, consider holding the position for further gains.

📌 Watch for weakness below ₱60.00. If momentum weakens, reassess the trade and adjust stop-loss accordingly.

📌 Look for re-entry opportunities. If URC retests ₱60.50 and holds, consider adding more exposure in future setups.

🚨 Conclusion: Trade No. 5 remains strong, with a bullish outlook. A move above ₱68.00 would confirm further upside, while a break below ₱60.00 would require caution. 🚨

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Monday, January 27, 2025

Evaluation of Trade No. 8 – Manila Electric Company (MER)

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

Trade Details

  • Trade No.: 8/20
  • Date: January 27, 2025
  • Action: Buy
  • Entry Type: Tactical Pullback Entry
  • Signal: Price near 50% retracement support (₱476.85)
  • Stock: Manila Electric Company (MER)
  • Shares Bought: 10 out of 20 allocated
  • Entry Price: ₱475.00
  • Position Size: 1/2 of target allocation

MER Trade No. 8/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Chart


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Each step is scored out of 10 based on trade alignment with the strategy.

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context – Score: 6/10

  • Market phase: MER is in a range-bound phase between ₱450.20 (support) and ₱503.50 (resistance).
  • Trend: Short-term bearish after failing to hold above the 20-MA.
  • Structure: A breakdown below the 50% retracement (₱476.85) suggests further downside risk.
    ✅ Verdict: Moderate risk – Needs recovery above ₱476.85 to confirm strength.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels – Score: 7/10

  • Price is below the 20-MA (₱485.86), indicating short-term weakness.
  • Price is near the 50% retracement level (₱476.85), a key support zone.
    ✅ Verdict: Good support test, but trend bias remains weak.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength – Score: 5/10

  • Today’s red candle shows selling pressure.
  • No strong green bar confirming support yet.
    ✅ Verdict: Weak confirmation – entry is speculative.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels – Score: 7/10

  • Entry at ₱475.00 is slightly below the 50% retracement level (₱476.85).
  • Price action stability is uncertain—failure to hold may lead to ₱450.20.
    ✅ Verdict: Decent entry point, but further weakness is possible.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments – Score: 9/10

  • Stop-loss placed below ₱472.00 (previous low).
  • Limits downside risk while allowing minor fluctuations.
    ✅ Verdict: Good risk management—tight stop placement.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation – Score: 5/10

  • No bullish reversal candle yet.
  • A green close above ₱476.85 is needed to confirm entry validity.
    ✅ Verdict: No confirmation—entry remains speculative.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets – Score: 8/10

  • Target 1: ₱485.86 (20-MA).
  • Target 2: ₱503.50 (previous resistance).
    ✅ Verdict: Profit-taking levels align with resistance zones.

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks – Score: 7/10

  • Possible re-entry at ₱450.20 if support fails.
  • Adding exposure above ₱485.86 remains an option.
    ✅ Verdict: Opportunities exist but require confirmation.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management – Score: 6/10

  • Half allocation used, keeping room for adjustments.
  • Adding the remaining 10 shares only if ₱476.85 holds.
    ✅ Verdict: Position sizing is cautious but speculative.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails – Score: 8/10

  • Not a counter-trend trade yet, but failure below ₱472.00 could lead to a deeper pullback.
    ✅ Verdict: Risk is manageable, but caution is needed.

Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 6.8/10 (Moderate Risk)

✅ Trade Execution: The entry at ₱475.00 is aligned with key retracement levels but lacks strong bullish confirmation.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss at ₱472.00 ensures a controlled downside.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Initial target at ₱485.86, scaling out at ₱503.50.

✅ Position Size Strategy: 1/2 allocation used, leaving flexibility for further adjustments.

Next Steps

📌 Monitor price action near ₱476.85. If price holds above this level, consider adding exposure.

📌 Watch for weakness below ₱472.00. If price fails to hold support, consider exiting earlier.

📌 Look for re-entry opportunities. If price retraces back to ₱450.20, a second tactical entry can be evaluated.

🚨 Final Thought: MER’s price action remains uncertain, with a need for a strong green candle above ₱476.85 to validate this entry. If support fails, expect a retest of ₱450.20. Trade cautiously. 🚨


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Evaluation of Trade No. 6 – Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI)

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

Trade Details

  • Trade No.: 6/20
  • Date: January 27, 2025
  • Action: Buy
  • Entry Type: Momentum Entry
  • Signal: Break above the 20-MA with strong bullish momentum
  • Stock: Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI)
  • Shares Bought: 400 out of 800 allocated
  • Entry Price: ₱17.04
  • Position Size: 1/2 of target allocation

📌 Chart Overview:

  • ATI closed at ₱17.50 (+0.69%), maintaining its breakout structure.
  • The stock surged above the 20-MA (₱16.82), confirming short-term trend reversal.
  • 200-MA (₱18.61) serves as the next major resistance level.
  • Volume at 77.9K suggests steady accumulation.
ATI Closing Daily Chart with moving averages and retracement levels for trade evaluation on January 27, 2025.

ATI Trade No. 6/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Chart


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

(Each step scored out of 10 based on trade alignment with strategy.)

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context - Score: 8/10

  • ATI is transitioning from a downtrend into a potential uptrend.
  • Break above the 20-MA signals trend reversal, but confirmation above ₱18.00 is needed.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels - Score: 8/10

  • Price reclaimed the 20-MA (₱16.82), signaling short-term strength.
  • The next resistance is at the 200-MA (₱18.61), which must be cleared for further upside.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 9/10

  • Strong bullish price action with a breakout candlestick.
  • Momentum suggests continuation, provided volume remains steady.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels - Score: 8/10

  • Entry was well-timed as the price confirmed strength above ₱17.00.
  • A retracement to ₱16.50 would offer another entry opportunity.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 9/10

  • Stop-loss set below ₱16.40 to minimize risk.
  • A breakdown below this level invalidates the trade setup.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation - Score: 8/10

  • Green candlestick formation confirms buying pressure.
  • Needs follow-through above ₱17.50 to confirm continuation.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 9/10

  • First target: ₱18.50 (near the 200-MA).
  • Final target: ₱19.50-₱20.00 (key resistance zone).

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 7/10

  • A retest of ₱16.80-₱17.00 would offer another entry.
  • Breakout above ₱18.00 justifies scaling into the position.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management - Score: 8/10

  • 1/2 position deployed, leaving room for scaling if price stabilizes above ₱18.00.
  • Further exposure should only be added above ₱18.50.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 6/10

  • Not a counter-trend trade, but caution is needed near ₱18.50 resistance.
  • Failure to hold above ₱16.50 would weaken the bullish setup.

📌 Overall Strategy Score: 80/100
📌 Summary: Trade was well-positioned on a momentum breakout, with further upside potential if price clears ₱18.50.

Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 8.0/10

✅ Trade Execution: Entry positioned at a breakout level, aligning with trend reversal.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss at ₱16.40 ensures controlled downside risk.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: First target at ₱18.50, scaling out at ₱19.50-₱20.00.

✅ Position Size Strategy: 1/2 Allocation, keeping flexibility for re-entries.

Next Steps

📌 Monitor price action near ₱18.00-₱18.50. If ATI holds this level, consider scaling up.

📌 Watch for weakness below ₱16.50. If momentum weakens, reassess the trade and exit below ₱16.40.

📌 Look for re-entry opportunities. If ATI retests ₱16.80-₱17.00 and holds, consider adding more shares.

🚨 Conclusion: Trade No. 6 remains strong, with bullish momentum. A move above ₱18.50 would confirm further upside. 🚨


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Evaluation of Trade No. 5 – MacroAsia Corporation (MAC)

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

Trade Details

  • Trade No.: 5/20
  • Date: January 27, 2025
  • Action: Buy
  • Entry Type: Pullback Entry
  • Signal: Price retracing to key support near the 200-MA and retracement zone
  • Stock: MacroAsia Corporation (MAC)
  • Shares Bought: 400 out of 800 allocated
  • Entry Price: ₱5.58
  • Position Size: 1/2 of target allocation

📌 Chart Overview:

  • MAC closed at ₱5.16 (-6.52%), dropping below key moving averages.
  • Price rejected near the 20-MA (₱5.44) and the 200-MA (₱5.31), showing weakness.
  • 50% pullback at ₱6.33 remains a major resistance area.
  • Support near the 0% pullback level at ₱4.96 is now in play.
MAC Closing Daily Chart with moving averages and retracement levels for trade evaluation on January 27, 2025.

MAC Trade No. 5/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Chart


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

(Each step scored out of 10 based on trade alignment with strategy.)

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context - Score: 6/10

  • MAC remains in a corrective phase after a prior uptrend.
  • Failure to hold above moving averages suggests continued selling pressure.
  • A reversal setup is not yet confirmed.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels - Score: 7/10

  • Entry at ₱5.58 was near the 200-MA (₱5.31) but failed to hold.
  • Price is now testing the lower range of the pullback zone, increasing downside risk.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 5/10

  • Bearish candle with increased volume confirms stronger selling pressure.
  • Price needs a strong green candle above ₱5.30-₱5.40 to validate a reversal.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels - Score: 7/10

  • Entry aligned with a logical support level, but price closed weak.
  • A retest of ₱4.96 is possible if no recovery occurs.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 9/10

  • Stop-loss placed below ₱5.00 ensures controlled downside risk.
  • Break below ₱4.96 invalidates the trade.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation - Score: 5/10

  • No clear bullish color change yet.
  • A green candle above ₱5.40 is needed for confirmation.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 8/10

  • First target: ₱5.80-₱6.00 (short-term resistance).
  • Final target: ₱6.33-₱6.50 (major resistance).

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 6/10

  • Re-entry near ₱5.16 may be possible, but a breakdown below ₱5.00 negates the setup.
  • Another opportunity exists above ₱5.40-₱5.50 if strength returns.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management - Score: 7/10

  • 1/2 position deployed, leaving room for scaling if price stabilizes.
  • Further exposure should only be added above ₱5.40-₱5.50.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 5/10

  • Not a counter-trend trade, but weakness below ₱5.00 signals the need for caution.
  • Price needs to reclaim ₱5.40 to justify holding the position.

📌 Overall Strategy Score: 65/100

📌 Summary: Trade entered at a reasonable support zone but failed to hold, requiring immediate risk management decisions.

Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 6.5/10

✅ Trade Execution: Entry positioned at a retracement level, but breakdown occurred.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss at ₱4.96 ensures controlled downside risk.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: First target at ₱5.80, scaling out at ₱6.33-₱6.50.

✅ Position Size Strategy: 1/2 Allocation, keeping flexibility for re-entries.

Next Steps

📌 Monitor price action near ₱5.16-₱5.30. If MAC holds this level, consider holding the position.

📌 Watch for weakness below ₱5.00. If momentum weakens, consider cutting losses.

📌 Look for re-entry opportunities. If MAC retests ₱5.40 and holds, consider adding more shares.

🚨 Conclusion: Trade No. 5 remains weak unless MAC reclaims ₱5.40-₱5.50. If price fails to hold above ₱5.00, an exit is necessary to minimize risk. 🚨


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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