Showing posts with label WLCON Stock Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label WLCON Stock Analysis. Show all posts

Friday, June 13, 2025

Stock Price Review: Wilcon Depot, Inc. (WLCON) Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts as of June 13, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant

Should long-term investors consider accumulating WLCON now, or is it too early? We review WLCON’s charts and apply the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy to decide.

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Review
  • Final Stock Recommendation
  • Next Steps
  • Layered Accumulation Plan
  • Evaluation of Adherence to Strategy

WLCON daily chart showing volume breakout above consolidation as of June 13, 2023

WLCON (PSE) Daily Chart – Multi-Timeframe Breakout Confirmed as of June 13, 2025

WLCON weekly chart showing volume breakout above consolidation as of June 13, 2023

WLCON (PSE) Weekly Chart – Multi-Timeframe Breakout Confirmed as of June 13, 2025

WLCON monthly chart showing volume breakout above consolidation as of June 13, 2023

WLCON (PSE) Monthly Chart – Multi-Timeframe Breakout Confirmed as of June 13, 2025


📍 I. Introduction

TRADE DETAILS
Date: June 13, 2025
Stock: Wilcon Depot, Inc. (WLCON)
Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
Timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly
Closing Price: ₱7.68
High: ₱7.80
Low: ₱7.47
20-MA (Daily): ₱6.57
200-MA (Daily): ₱11.60

After a long and steep downtrend, WLCON has shown signs of reversal on all three timeframes. A recent daily breakout attempt above the short-term moving averages has caught our attention. We now evaluate it using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 5.0 – Long-Term Focus Variant.


✅ II. Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 5.0 – Long-Term Focus Variant Review

1. Market State & Trend Context
Monthly and weekly charts confirm a prolonged downtrend, but recent candles suggest a possible base forming. Daily chart momentum is turning up.
Verdict: HOLD/WAIT (Trend Turn Underway)

2. Price Position & Value Zones
Price is still below the 200-day MA but has reclaimed the 20- and 50-day MA. On the monthly, it trades well below long-term value levels (₱15–22).
Verdict: BUY (Undervalued, Early Recovery Zone)

3. Power Bars & Volume Confirmation
June candles on all timeframes show bullish intent with above-average volume. Daily bar shows volume spike on breakout.
Verdict: BUY (Volume-Confirmed Turnaround)

4. Entry Confirmation (Fundamental & Technical)
While fundamentals remain pressured due to retail sector weakness, the technicals suggest a tactical low is in.
Verdict: BUY (Technical-Driven Recovery Trade)

5. Stop-Loss / Thesis Violation Point
Soft stop around ₱6.30, below short-term moving averages. Violation here would negate early uptrend attempt.
Verdict: BUY with Soft Stop

6. Color Change / Reversal Signals
Green candles now dominate after months of red, signaling reversal in character. Monthly candle has broken prior month’s high.
Verdict: BUY

7. Profit-Taking Strategy
Target zones:

  • Partial: ₱9.50–₱11.00

  • Full: ₱13.00+ if sustained
    Verdict: BUY (Strong R/R Potential)

8. Re-Entry Plans
Re-enter near ₱6.80–₱7.00 or if new base forms above ₱8.00.
Verdict: Prepare Re-Entry Strategy

9. Position Size Strategy
With a ₱6,000 capital and 100-share board lot, plan for 3 layers of ₱2,000 each. Start with test buy, then accumulate.
Verdict: BUY SMALL (Layered Plan)

10. Ethical/Counter-Trend Opportunities
No ethical concerns. Retail-related recovery could play out in 2025.
Verdict: BUY


🚀 III. Final Stock Recommendation

Final Stock Recommendation: BUY

📅 Recommendation: Accumulate between ₱7.00–₱7.70 as a technical turnaround continues with volume confirmation.

🔢 Risk Management: Monitor support at ₱6.30. Violation would require thesis reassessment.

💰 Profit-Taking Strategy: Trim around ₱9.50–₱11.00; exit fully at ₱13.00+ if monthly trend confirms.

📆 Position Size Strategy: Start with 100 shares (~₱760), then add 100 shares each if pullbacks hold support or breakout above ₱8.00 occurs.


🔄 IV. Next Steps

  • Short-term traders: Watch for confirmation above ₱8.00 for swing trade continuation.

  • Long-term investors: Begin layering near current levels; treat this as early stage of value recovery.

  • Existing holders: Hold positions; consider adding near ₱7.00 if pullback occurs.


🧩 V. Layered Accumulation Plan for WLCON

(Based on Php6,000.00 Capital and 100-Share Board Lot)

🔹 Layer 1 – ₱2,000.00 → Entry Zone: ₱7.60–₱7.70 (Initial Buy)
🔹 Layer 2 – ₱2,000.00 → Entry Zone: ₱7.00–₱7.20 (Pullback Entry)
🔹 Layer 3 – ₱2,000.00 → Entry Zone: Breakout above ₱8.10 (Momentum Add-On)

Plan total = 300 shares
Estimated average = ₱7.40 if executed fully


📊 VI. Evaluation of Recent Action for Adherence to the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant

Score: 87/100

Most of the steps confirm a valid early accumulation signal. The only reason for not scoring a full BUY is the absence of a fully confirmed trend reversal on the monthly timeframe, which still suggests caution. However, the strong daily/weekly volume and structure justify the current BUY stance with layered accumulation.


🚨 Final Thought: Patience is key. This is the “value phase” where long-term accumulation matters more than momentum chasing. Stick to layers, respect soft stops, and allow time for trend maturity.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Monday, June 9, 2025

Stock Price Review: Wilcon Depot, Inc. (WLCON) Weekly Chart as of June 9, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant

WLCON stock review using Hybrid 10-Step Strategy – Should long-term investors start accumulating now despite weak technicals?

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Review
  • Final Stock Recommendation
  • Next Steps
  • Layered Accumulation Plan
  • Evaluation of Adherence to Strategy


Weekly chart of WLCON showing resistance at 20-week MA and ongoing downtrend

Wilcon Depot, Inc. (WLCON) weekly chart as of June 9, 2025

🧭 I. Introduction

TRADE DETAILS
Date: June 9, 2025
Stock: Wilcon Depot, Inc. (WLCON)
Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
Timeframe: Weekly
Closing Price: ₱7.09
High: ₱7.34
Low: ₱7.06
20-MA (Short-Term Trend): ₱7.20
200-MA (Long-Term Trend): ₱22.45

WLCON continues to trade significantly below its long-term moving average and is currently testing its short-term 20-week MA from below. Volume has slightly picked up but remains modest compared to major downtrend periods. This review is guided by our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 5.0 – Long-Term Focus Variant, with a focus on patient accumulation and value-zone layering.


📈 II. Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

(Adapted for Long-Term Focus)

1. Market State & Trend Context

WLCON remains in a confirmed long-term downtrend, having declined from above ₱30 in early 2023 to its current levels below ₱8. It is currently attempting to stabilize just beneath its declining 20-week moving average.
Verdict: HOLD/WAIT


2. Price Position & Value Zones

The price sits significantly below the 200-week MA (₱22.45), suggesting a deep discount from long-term valuations. However, price is still not showing strong accumulation signs or base formation yet.
Verdict: WAIT


3. Power Bars & Volume Confirmation

No recent power bar breakout is evident on the weekly chart. Although we’ve seen some green volume bars, they do not yet constitute a confirmed shift in institutional buying behavior.
Verdict: HOLD/WAIT


4. Entry Confirmation (Fundamental & Technical)

Fundamentally, WLCON remains a dominant player in its sector. However, from a technical standpoint, we await more decisive support-building and a base confirmation on longer timeframes.
Verdict: HOLD


5. Stop-Loss / Thesis Violation Point

A soft stop for long-term investors may be set near the ₱6.00 psychological level. Breach below that without rebound may call for re-evaluation.
Verdict: HOLD


6. Color Change / Reversal Signals

We observe minor weekly green candles, but no sustained momentum or “color change” has formed to imply a reversal.
Verdict: WAIT


7. Profit-Taking Strategy

Given the long-term nature of this plan, target zones for partial profit-taking may include ₱10.00 (nearest former support), ₱12.00 (50-week MA), and ₱16.00 (major structure midpoint).
Verdict: HOLD – No trigger yet


8. Re-Entry Plans

Not yet relevant as no prior successful breakout has been initiated. First buy zone consideration may begin only once a base confirms near current levels.
Verdict: WAIT


9. Position Size Strategy (Board Lot Conversion & Layering Plan)

Board lot is 100 shares. Long-term investors may consider starting with minimal layers of 100 to 200 shares only if price dips near ₱6.00, and prepare larger allocations if momentum begins to shift back above ₱8.00.
Verdict: WAIT for better layer trigger zones


10. Ethical/Counter-Trend Opportunities

While WLCON may be fundamentally solid, the technical backdrop lacks ethical trade setup justification at this point. We do not recommend counter-trend buys while the weekly trend remains downward.
Verdict: NOT YET


✅ III. Final Stock Recommendation

Final Stock Recommendation: HOLD/WAIT

📅 Recommendation: Hold and monitor price behavior near ₱6.00–₱6.50 zone. Wait for stronger signs of support-building and institutional accumulation.

🔢 Risk Management: Monitor soft stop below ₱6.00 for downside protection.

💰 Profit-Taking Strategy: Consider taking profits in stages at ₱10.00, ₱12.00, and ₱16.00 once position is established and confirmed.

📆 Position Size Strategy: For investors with limited capital, delay layering until more clarity emerges. Use 100-share entries only after stabilization or a base appears.


🔄 IV. Next Steps

Short-term traders → No tactical trade opportunity yet. Avoid premature entry until clear breakout signals above ₱8.00 are seen.

Long-term investors → Monitor closely. Prepare to layer 100-share blocks if support confirms around ₱6.00 with improving volume.

Existing holders → Hold. Reduce only if new lows below ₱6.00 breach your soft stop threshold.


🧩 V. Layered Accumulation Plan for WLCON

(Based on Php3,000 Capital and 100-Share Board Lot)

Given the 100-share board lot requirement and a cautious stance due to WLCON's ongoing downtrend, we outline a 3-layer accumulation strategy suited for small capital and long-term patience.

  • Layer 1 (Initial Position – Executed June 9, 2025):
    Bought 100 shares @ ₱7.31 = ₱731.00
    Rationale: Modest starter position to build presence near 20-week MA resistance zone.

  • Layer 2 (Pending GTC Order):
    Buy 100 shares @ ₱7.00 = ₱700.00
    Rationale: Averaging down near minor support and psychological level.

  • Layer 3 (Reserve Capital):
    Buy 100 shares @ ₱6.25–₱6.50 (monitor price behavior) = ₱650.00
    Rationale: Final layer at expected soft support zone, contingent on volume and stabilization.

  • Total Projected Capital Use: ~₱2,081

  • Cash Buffer: ~₱900 (30% of capital remains for price rejection or breakout scenario flexibility)

⚖️ This layered plan prioritizes low-cost exposure and disciplined patience, as WLCON remains technically weak but potentially forming a long-term bottom.


📊 VI. Evaluation of Recent Action for Adherence to the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant

Action Evaluated:

  • Entry on June 9, 2025 @ ₱7.31 for 100 shares

  • Placed GTC Order @ ₱7.00 for 100 shares

Using a 10-point scoring system per strategy step, we evaluated our recent action against each component of the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant:

  1. Market State & Trend Context received a score of 6 out of 10. While the downtrend is acknowledged, entering before a base or reversal makes the trade early, though not entirely misaligned.

  2. Price Position & Value Zones earned 7 out of 10, as the entry was just beneath the 20-week MA, which may act as short-term resistance. However, it’s within range of technical interest.

  3. Power Bars & Volume Confirmation scored 4 out of 10 due to the absence of any clear power bar or volume spike at entry.

  4. Entry Confirmation was given 5 out of 10. While the fundamentals are acceptable, there was no strong technical trigger to justify the timing.

  5. Stop-Loss / Thesis Violation scored 7 out of 10, with a soft stop anticipated near ₱6.00, a logical psychological level.

  6. Color Change / Reversal Signal earned only 4 out of 10, as no significant reversal pattern or weekly trend shift has yet emerged.

  7. Profit-Taking Strategy received 6 out of 10, as it is pre-planned in the broader post but not immediately relevant during the entry.

  8. Re-Entry Plan was scored 8 out of 10 because the GTC order at ₱7.00 represents a clear follow-up strategy and cost-averaging plan.

  9. Position Size Strategy achieved a perfect 10 out of 10, demonstrating full compliance with board lot requirements, small exposure, and capital preservation.

  10. Ethical/Counter-Trend Opportunities earned 6 out of 10, as there was no confirmed setup, but the entry still fits the long-term patient accumulation framework.

Final Total Score: 63 out of 100

Interpretation:

Our Layer 1 entry on June 9, 2025, reflects a cautious yet slightly early move into WLCON. While it aligns with long-term accumulation intent, several technical signals such as volume, trend reversal, and power bars were not yet present. As such, this position is considered a speculative but structurally acceptable initial buy under our long-term strategy.

🚨 Final Thought: No stock moves up without demand. Patience is key—allow the stock to form a true base before engaging in new positions.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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