Showing posts with label Breakout Strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Breakout Strategy. Show all posts

Thursday, June 26, 2025

Trade Evaluation: Wilcon Depot Inc. (WLCON) – Layer 3 Entry at ₱8.28 on June 26, 2025 Assessed Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

WLCON Weekly Chart as of June 26, 2025 showing bullish breakout above 20-MA with high volume. Ideal tactical entry setup.

WLCON Layer 3 tactical buy at ₱8.28 on June 26, 2025 evaluated using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy. Breakout strength confirmed.

Contents:

  • Introduction

  • Trade Execution Overview

  • Step-by-Step Evaluation Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

  • Final Tactical Entry Decision

  • Next Steps

📌 Introduction

We are closely monitoring the recovery play of Wilcon Depot Inc. (WLCON) after its prolonged downtrend. As of the mid-day session on June 26, 2025, WLCON has advanced to ₱8.28, showing strong signs of bullish breakout continuation on the weekly chart. This trade evaluation focuses on the planned Layer 3 buy action—an additional 100 shares to be executed at the 1:00 PM resumption of trading.

This move is part of our ongoing implementation of the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant, under our ₱5,000 capital layering plan.


💼 Trade Execution Overview

  • Stock: Wilcon Depot Inc. (WLCON)

  • Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)

  • Trade Action: Buy 100 shares (Layer 3 Entry)

  • Planned Entry Price: ₱8.28

  • Date: June 26, 2025

  • Session: Mid-day Weekly Chart

  • Board Lot: 100 shares

  • Indicators at Mid-Day:

    • 20-MA: ₱6.98

    • 50-MA: ₱11.89

    • 200-MA: ₱22.29

    • Volume (week-to-date): 12.32M


✅ Step-by-Step Evaluation Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Step 1: Market State & Trend Context
WLCON remains technically in a long-term downtrend but is clearly forming a bullish reversal base. Price has crossed the 20-MA and is now breaking upward with momentum.
➡ Verdict: Wait for full reversal on higher timeframe, but valid for tactical buy.
✅ Score: 7/10

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones
Price now sits above the 20-MA and within the sweet spot of a bullish recovery retracement (40–50% zone). This confirms an attractive range for breakout continuation.
➡ Verdict: Positive tactical zone.
✅ Score: 8/10

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation
Last week’s breakout candle is now being followed by another green bar with mid-week volume already hitting 12.32M—clear institutional interest.
➡ Verdict: Strong confirmation of power move.
✅ Score: 9/10

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals
Your planned entry at ₱8.28 is slightly above the previous week’s high. The price is breaking out from a multi-week base.
➡ Verdict: Valid Layer 3 breakout entry.
✅ Score: 9/10

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management
Logical stop-loss is below ₱7.00 (20-MA level), offering a manageable downside.
➡ Verdict: Proper stop identified.
✅ Score: 8/10

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Confirmation
A consistent shift from red to green candles over the last three weeks confirms bullish reversal.
➡ Verdict: Reversal signal present.
✅ Score: 9/10

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategy with Tactical Exits
Target profit zones include ₱9.80, ₱10.50, and the 50-MA at ₱11.89.
➡ Verdict: Tactical exit zones are well-defined.
✅ Score: 8/10

Step 8: Potential Re-entry Zones
Any pullback to ₱7.80–₱8.00 may serve as a re-entry if profit-taking occurs.
➡ Verdict: Re-entry plan viable.
✅ Score: 7/10

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments
Layer 3 is in line with our ₱5,000 plan (100 shares initial, 200 core, 200 add-on).
➡ Verdict: Position sizing fully compliant.
✅ Score: 10/10

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations
This is no longer a counter-trend play—momentum is now in favor.
➡ Verdict: Valid continuation trade.
✅ Score: 8/10


📊 Final Score: 83 / 100

Interpretation:Good Quality Entry – Confirmed Breakout with Strong Setup Compliance


🎯 Final Tactical Entry Decision

Action: Proceed with buying 100 shares at ₱8.28 during the 1:00 PM trading resumption.

Stop-Loss: Place below ₱7.00 (just under the 20-MA on weekly).

Profit Targets: Take partial profits near ₱9.80 and ₱10.50; consider holding balance to ₱11.89.

Position Sizing: Stay within the total ₱5,000 capital layering framework (up to 600 shares maximum).


📌 Next Steps

🔹 Watch for strong closing volume on Friday to confirm weekly breakout

🔹 Adjust stop-loss to breakeven if price exceeds ₱8.80

🔹 Avoid chasing if price sharply rises beyond ₱8.50 intraday

🔹 Prepare to take profits near ₱10.50 if upward move extends rapidly

🚨 Final Thought: This Layer 3 entry is backed by a strong breakout from base. Manage with discipline—protect capital, follow exits, and allow the trend to work.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Friday, February 7, 2025

Stock Price Review: Manila Electric Company (MER) Daily Chart as of February 6, 2025 – Is a Breakout Forming?

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Technical Analysis: Price and Trend Overview
  • Volume Analysis: Institutional Interest or Just Noise?
  • Breakout Trading Strategy: What Really Matters?
  • Trading Recommendations Based on the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy
  • Final Thoughts

Introduction

Manila Electric Company (MER) closed at 488.60 on February 6, 2025, gaining +3.60 (+0.74%) for the day. While MER has been consolidating within the 460–500 range since December 2024, a recent increase in volume raises questions about whether a breakout is forming. This review will assess MER’s price action, volume trends, and breakout potential using our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy.

A stock chart of Manila Electric Company (MER) showing technical indicators, price action, and moving averages.

MER Daily Chart Analysis – February 6, 2025


Technical Analysis: Price and Trend Overview

1. Current Price Action

  • MER closed at 488.60, up +0.74% for the day.
  • The short-term trend (20-MA at 481.15) is acting as immediate support.
  • The long-term trend (200-MA at 426.54) remains significantly lower, confirming a strong uptrend in the bigger picture.

2. Key Resistance and Consolidation

  • MER has been ranging between 460–500 since December 2024.
  • 500 remains the key breakout level, while 475–480 serves as near-term support.
  • Despite a recent rebound from lows, the price remains within the consolidation zone, meaning no confirmed breakout has occurred yet.

Volume Analysis: Institutional Interest or Just Noise?

Recent Volume Comparison

  • Closing Volume on February 6, 2025: 0.32M
  • 65-Day Volume Average (+20%) as of February 5, 2025: 0.27M
  • 30-Day Volume Average (+20%) as of February 5, 2025: 0.26M

The 0.32M volume is above historical averages, suggesting increased trading activity. However, higher volume alone does not confirm a breakout—price action must also validate the move.


Breakout Trading Strategy: What Really Matters?

A breakout strategy prioritizes price first, with volume acting as confirmation. Here’s how to analyze MER’s current setup:

  1. Breakout Occurs Only When Price Clears 500

    • Price must decisively break above 500 to confirm a bullish breakout.
    • Until then, MER is still inside the 460–500 consolidation range.
  2. Volume Confirms the Move

    • Ideal breakout volume should exceed 0.40M, significantly higher than today’s 0.32M.
    • If volume is low during a price breakout, it could be a false breakout, meaning the price could quickly reverse back inside the range.
  3. No Entry if Price is Not in the Sweet Spot

    • Even with higher volume, if the price is still below 500, the breakout is not valid.
    • Decision: WAIT for the price to break above 500 before considering an entry.

Trading Recommendations Based on the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

🔹 Short-Term Traders (Swing & Momentum)

  • Wait for a confirmed breakout above 500 before entering.
  • If MER tests 490–500 with volume exceeding 0.35M, a breakout is more likely.
  • Support at 480–475 should hold; a breakdown below 475 could signal weakness.
  • Stop-loss at 475 for any short-term buy trades.

🔹 Long-Term Investors

  • MER is above both the 20-MA and 200-MA, confirming a long-term uptrend.
  • Best accumulation zone: 460–470, where price has found support multiple times.
  • Holding is recommended unless the stock breaks below 450, which could indicate a deeper correction.

🔹 Existing Holders

  • No immediate exit needed, but if volume weakens and MER fails to break 500, expect continued consolidation.
  • Consider partial profit-taking at 500–510, as this level has acted as resistance.
  • Use a trailing stop at 475–470 to protect gains.

Final Thoughts

MER is currently in a consolidation phase between 460 and 500, with a potential breakout forming. The increase in volume is encouraging, but price confirmation is still required before entering new positions.

🚨 Final Takeaway: Wait for MER to break 500 with volume exceeding 0.40M before confirming a breakout. No entry until price is in the sweet spot! 🚀



NOTES ON OUR BREAKOUT TRADING STRATEGY


How We Arrived at the 0.40M Volume Recommendation for MER’s Breakout Confirmation

The 0.40M volume threshold for confirming a breakout above 500.00 in MER was determined based on historical volume trends, breakout theory, and institutional activity requirements. Below is a breakdown of how we arrived at this figure.


1. Historical Volume Analysis

Volume Data as of February 6, 2025:

  • Closing Volume: 0.32M
  • 65-Day Volume Average (+20%): 0.27M
  • 30-Day Volume Average (+20%): 0.26M

💡 Interpretation:

  • The 0.32M volume on February 6, 2025, was above both the 30-day and 65-day volume averages, indicating increased trading activity.
  • However, it was not enough to push the price beyond the 500 resistance level, meaning more volume is needed for a confirmed breakout.

2. Breakout Volume Rule of Thumb

A valid breakout should have at least 1.5x to 2x the stock’s average volume, ensuring that the price movement is backed by strong institutional participation and not just retail trading.

🔹 Applying This to MER:

  • 65-Day Adjusted Average Volume: 0.27M
  • Target Volume for Breakout Confirmation:
    • 1.5x of 0.27M → 0.40M
    • 2.0x of 0.27M → 0.54M

Since MER is consolidating within 460–500 and has attempted to break out multiple times without success, the minimum volume threshold for a breakout should be 1.5x the adjusted 65-day average, which equates to 0.40M.


3. Institutional Accumulation Requirement

  • For large-cap stocks like MER, institutions (fund managers, investment firms, and big traders) tend to build positions gradually.
  • A sustained volume surge above 0.40M would indicate strong institutional interest, reinforcing that the breakout is not a false move.

4. Previous Failed Breakout Attempts

  • If past breakout attempts at 500 occurred with volume lower than 0.40M and failed, it confirms that higher volume is needed to sustain a move above 500.
  • MER’s previous range-bound trading suggests that resistance remains strong, requiring significantly higher participation to break through.

Conclusion: Why 0.40M is the Key Breakout Volume Threshold

  • It is 1.5x the 65-day volume average, aligning with breakout theory.
  • It is higher than previous failed breakout volumes, indicating institutional confirmation.
  • It ensures MER’s breakout above 500 is sustainable, avoiding false breakouts.

🚨 Final Takeaway: A breakout above 500 will require volume exceeding 0.40M to be considered valid. If volume remains below this level, the breakout is at risk of failing. 🚀


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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