Showing posts with label Value Investing Philippines. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Value Investing Philippines. Show all posts

Sunday, November 23, 2025

Ethical Turnaround Picks — Now Expanded to SCC, PCOR, and DMC (Starting Nov 24, 2025)

Board Lot Warrior › Special Series › Ethical Turnaround Picks › Expansion Update

Circular dark-green logo labeled “Ethical Turnaround Picks” featuring upward bars and an arrow, with SCC, PCOR, and DMC tickers.
Expansion Update — Ethical Turnaround Picks now includes SCC, PCOR, and newly added DMC starting November 24, 2025.

Habang lumilinaw ang direksyon ng ating portfolio system, napag-alaman nating kailangan natin ng isang dedicated fund para sa mga undervalued, halal, at long-cycle recovery plays.

Dito ipinanganak ang Ethical Turnaround Picks (ETP) — pero ngayong linggo, pinalawak natin ito. Kailangan natin ng mas solid na lineup, mas malinaw na purpose, at mas malaking puwersa.
This post marks the official expansion of ETP and the addition of a crucial stock that strengthens the entire theme.


Why We Expanded the Ethical Turnaround Picks (SCC + PCOR → Now SCC + PCOR + DMC)

Today’s update marks a major step forward for our Ethical Turnaround Picks — a specialized mini-portfolio designed to capture undervalued, high-potential companies that are ethically sound, fundamentally strong, and currently trading at turnaround levels.

Originally composed of SCC and PCOR, the basket now expands to include DMC starting Monday, November 24, 2025, the first trading day of the week.

This decision wasn’t random.
It was strategic, ethical, technically justified, and aligned with the story of the entire Subok ng Puso Series.


1. Why Add DMC Now?

Perfect Ethical Match

DMC operates in real-asset businesses — construction, power, water, mining — with no haram products.
It fits squarely under our ethical lens.

Stable Conglomerate with Turnaround Pricing

DMC is undervalued relative to earnings, NAV, and peer groups.
This creates the kind of deep value + recovery potential that defines an ethical turnaround play.

Strategic Synergy with SCC

DMC is the parent of SCC.
So instead of doubling risk, it smoothens it:

  • SCC = cyclical, volatile

  • DMC = diversified, dividend-driven, steady

This reduces risk AND adds upside.

Market Timing: Monday Entry Makes Sense

The first trading day of the week is:

  • more liquid

  • more predictable

  • aligned with fund flows

  • a clean start for documenting Week 1 performance

Adding DMC on Monday aligns with our weekly execution discipline.


2. The Ethical Turnaround Trio: A More Solid Basket

OLD:

• SCC – Commodity/Energy Turnaround
• PCOR – Refinery/Reopening Turnaround

NEW:

• DMC – Value + Dividend Stability + Parent Strength

DMC creates a triangle of strengths:

  • SCC’s commodity cycle

  • PCOR’s operational recovery

  • DMC’s conglomerate stability

This gives our Ethical Turnaround Picks a more balanced, anti-fragile foundation.


3. Islamic Investing Perspective: Is DMC Halal? Yes.

DMC’s business operations do not involve:

  • riba-based activities

  • gambling

  • alcohol

  • pork

  • prohibited business models

Industries such as construction, water, energy, and mining are allowed,
and from a risk perspective, adding DMC reduces concentration risk, which is aligned with Islamic concepts of:

  • Tadbir Mali (wise stewardship of wealth)

  • Ihtiyat (prudence)

  • Tawakkul after effort

The move is halal, ethical, and structurally sound.


4. How DMC Strengthens the Story of the Series

Each portfolio in the Micro Stock Trader ecosystem has a clear identity:

  • Halal Core Growth → MONDE, URC, WLCON

  • Ethical Turnaround Picks → SCC, PCOR, and now DMC

  • Jimmy Series → tactical and emotional learning

  • SDA Fund → deep averaging long arcs

Adding DMC enhances the identity of Ethical Turnaround Picks by transforming it into a 3-pillar turnaround mini-fund.

This also makes future updates more structured, insightful, and educational for readers.


5. Execution Plan

Tomorrow, November 24, we begin accumulating DMC:

  • We will follow board-lot sizing

  • We maintain ethical and risk awareness

  • We integrate DMC performance into our weekly updates

  • We treat DMC as a stabilizer for the entire turnaround basket

Expect the Day 1 entry to be documented in the next update.


Final Message

With DMC joining SCC and PCOR, the ETP is no longer just a concept — it’s now a full-fledged turnaround portfolio.

Pero habang lumalakas ang ETP, napapansin din natin ang isang malaking overlap sa ating ecosystem: si MONDE.
Before we execute any exit or reallocation, kailangan muna nating talakayin ang malaking tanong:
Saan ba talaga dapat ilugar si MONDE?
Yan ang tatalakayin natin sa susunod na post — The MONDE Dilemma.

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Your official Micro Stock Trader Navigation Hub badge—use this icon to link readers to the main directory of all series and strategies.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Paalala lang: Ang post na ito ay para sa informational purposes only at hindi dapat ituring na financial advice. Laging siguraduhing gumawa ng sarili mong research bago pumasok sa kahit anong trade o investment



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Friday, June 13, 2025

Stock Price Review: Forum Pacific, Inc. (FPI) Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts as of June 13, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant

Should long-term investors continue accumulating FPI after a recent breakout? This review applies the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant.

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Review
  • Final Stock Recommendation
  • Next Steps
  • Layered Accumulation Plan
  • Evaluation of Adherence to Strategy


FPI daily chart showing volume breakout above consolidation as of June 13, 2023

FPI (PSE) Daily Chart – Multi-Timeframe Breakout Confirmed as of June 13, 2025

FPI weekly chart showing volume breakout above consolidation as of June 13, 2023

FPI (PSE) Weekly Chart – Multi-Timeframe Breakout Confirmed as of June 13, 2025

FPI monthly chart showing volume breakout above consolidation as of June 13, 2023

FPI (PSE) Monthly Chart – Multi-Timeframe Breakout Confirmed as of June 13, 2025


📍 I. Introduction

TRADE DETAILS
Date: June 13, 2025
Stock: Forum Pacific, Inc. (FPI)
Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange
Timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly
Closing Price: ₱0.2300
High: ₱0.2300 (Daily), ₱0.2900 (Weekly/Monthly)
Low: ₱0.2300 (Daily), ₱0.2250 (Weekly/Monthly)
20-MA: ₱0.2245 (Daily), ₱0.2210 (Weekly), ₱0.2230 (Monthly)
200-MA: ₱0.2248 (Daily), ₱0.2210 (Weekly), ₱0.2230 (Monthly)

Forum Pacific, Inc. (FPI) has staged a significant breakout attempt, with volume surging and price spiking up to ₱0.29 intraday. Although it closed back at ₱0.23, this movement suggests heightened speculative interest. We recently entered with 10,000 shares at ₱0.25 on June 10, 2025. The strategy used is the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 5.0 – Long-Term Focus Variant.


✅ II. Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 5.0 – Long-Term Focus Variant Review

1. Market State & Trend Context
Volume spike and bullish expansion bar observed on all timeframes. Daily, weekly, and monthly candles are all green, signaling breakout momentum.
Verdict: BUY

2. Price Position & Value Zones
At ₱0.2300, FPI is trading slightly above the 20-day and 200-day MAs across all timeframes. However, it is now below our entry at ₱0.25, suggesting a near-term dip may offer better re-entry.
Verdict: WAIT (for better entry within support zone ₱0.21–₱0.23)

3. Power Bars & Volume Confirmation
The June 10–12 rally featured a strong power bar with extreme volume confirmation—highest in months.
Verdict: BUY

4. Entry Confirmation (Fundamental & Technical)
Fundamental catalysts are still unclear, but technically, FPI printed a rare clean breakout from range. Entry was technically justified but slightly late.
Verdict: BUY (with caution)

5. Stop-Loss / Thesis Violation Point
Soft stop around ₱0.20 to protect capital without disrupting long-term plan. We avoid hard stops due to thin liquidity.
Verdict: HOLD

6. Color Change / Reversal Signals
No red reversal bar yet post-breakout. However, the long wick above ₱0.29 is a short-term caution sign.
Verdict: HOLD

7. Profit-Taking Strategy
First partial exit near ₱0.29–₱0.30, next tier at ₱0.34, and full exit if extended to ₱0.40.
Verdict: HOLD (no trimming until ₱0.29 retest)

8. Re-Entry Plans
Plan re-entry near ₱0.21–₱0.23 if price dips with stabilizing volume.
Verdict: WAIT

9. Position Size Strategy (Include board lot conversion and layering plan)
With ₱6,000 capital and 10,000-share board lot, scaling must be done in 10k blocks. Initial position already placed.
Verdict: HOLD (next entry: on pullback with lower wick confirmation)

10. Ethical/Counter-Trend Opportunities
None at this stage. Breakout was driven by price-action, not fundamental story.
Verdict: HOLD


🚀 III. Final Stock Recommendation

Final Stock Recommendation: HOLD / BUY-on-Pullback

📅 Recommendation: Accumulate more only on dips to ₱0.21–₱0.23. The price is below our entry and near MA clusters, suggesting support.

🔢 Risk Management: Use a soft stop below ₱0.20 in case of sustained sell-off. Avoid panic exits unless breakdown is confirmed on weekly close.

💰 Profit-Taking Strategy: Begin selling at ₱0.29–₱0.30, then ₱0.34 and ₱0.40 if upside momentum continues.

📆 Position Size Strategy: Start with minimum board lot (10,000 shares per layer). Add only if the next red-to-green reversal occurs near the 20-MA.


🔄 IV. Next Steps

Short-term traders → Wait for a red-to-green reversal near ₱0.22 before re-entering.

Long-term investors → Hold core position, watch for weekly close stability above ₱0.23.

Existing holders → Hold. Monitor volume. Consider trimming above ₱0.29 if there is a failed breakout retest.


🧩 V. Layered Accumulation Plan for FPI

(Based on Php6,000 Capital and 10,000-Share Board Lot)

  • First Layer (Executed): ₱0.25 on June 10, 2025, 10,000 shares = ₱2,500

  • Second Layer (Planned): ₱0.23 area if low volume pullback = ₱2,300

  • Third Layer (Planned): ₱0.21–₱0.215 area on dip = ₱2,150

If both layers fill, final average cost will approximate ₱0.23 for 30,000 shares.


📊 VI. Evaluation of Recent Action for Adherence to the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant

Trade: BUY 10,000 shares at ₱0.25 on June 10, 2025

  1. Market State and Trend Context:
    The trade was made during a confirmed breakout phase. There was a strong expansion bar accompanied by a dramatic increase in volume, signaling the start of momentum. This was a near-ideal context to enter based on technical trend behavior.
    Score: 9/10

  2. Price Position and Value Zones:
    Entry at ₱0.25 was slightly above the value zone defined by the cluster of moving averages. While technically justified by momentum, it was not optimal for value accumulation. Pullback opportunities around ₱0.21 to ₱0.23 would have provided better positioning.
    Score: 6/10

  3. Power Bars and Volume Confirmation:
    The power bar printed on June 10 had full body range with strong volume spike—clear institutional or speculative activity. The trade aligned well with this cue.
    Score: 10/10

  4. Entry Confirmation (Fundamental and Technical):
    While there was no known catalyst or news, the technical structure justified the entry. The breakout from months of consolidation was clearly visible across all timeframes.
    Score: 8/10

  5. Stop-Loss / Thesis Violation Strategy:
    A soft stop approach was correctly used, targeting below ₱0.20 as a thesis violation zone. This reflects discipline appropriate to long-term positioning in a thinly traded stock.
    Score: 9/10

  6. Color Change / Reversal Signal:
    No immediate reversal signal was evident, although the presence of a long wick from ₱0.29 is a warning of short-term selling pressure. The trade remains intact but must be monitored for weakness.
    Score: 8/10

  7. Profit-Taking Strategy:
    Profit-taking levels are defined above ₱0.29 and up to ₱0.40. However, none of these levels have been hit yet, and the entry was relatively close to the top of the recent spike. This weakens early exit flexibility.
    Score: 7/10

  8. Re-Entry Plans:
    A better entry window now appears to be forming near ₱0.21 to ₱0.23. The initial trade did not factor this in but planning for a second tranche improves strategic discipline.
    Score: 6/10

  9. Position Size and Layering Compliance:
    The trade adhered to the board lot of 10,000 shares and matched the capital structure defined in our long-term plan. Layering strategy is already in place for follow-up orders.
    Score: 10/10

  10. Ethical and Counter-Trend Considerations:
    No unethical or counter-trend actions were evident in this setup. The trade was aligned with technical breakout conditions and remained within the investor’s ethical and portfolio guidelines.
    Score: 7/10

Overall Score: 80 out of 100

Final Verdict: This was a valid breakout trade executed within strategic parameters. However, the next tranche should aim for deeper value alignment and improved risk-reward balance.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


Related Readings



Stock Price Review: Wilcon Depot, Inc. (WLCON) Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts as of June 13, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant

Should long-term investors consider accumulating WLCON now, or is it too early? We review WLCON’s charts and apply the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy to decide.

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Review
  • Final Stock Recommendation
  • Next Steps
  • Layered Accumulation Plan
  • Evaluation of Adherence to Strategy

WLCON daily chart showing volume breakout above consolidation as of June 13, 2023

WLCON (PSE) Daily Chart – Multi-Timeframe Breakout Confirmed as of June 13, 2025

WLCON weekly chart showing volume breakout above consolidation as of June 13, 2023

WLCON (PSE) Weekly Chart – Multi-Timeframe Breakout Confirmed as of June 13, 2025

WLCON monthly chart showing volume breakout above consolidation as of June 13, 2023

WLCON (PSE) Monthly Chart – Multi-Timeframe Breakout Confirmed as of June 13, 2025


📍 I. Introduction

TRADE DETAILS
Date: June 13, 2025
Stock: Wilcon Depot, Inc. (WLCON)
Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
Timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly
Closing Price: ₱7.68
High: ₱7.80
Low: ₱7.47
20-MA (Daily): ₱6.57
200-MA (Daily): ₱11.60

After a long and steep downtrend, WLCON has shown signs of reversal on all three timeframes. A recent daily breakout attempt above the short-term moving averages has caught our attention. We now evaluate it using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 5.0 – Long-Term Focus Variant.


✅ II. Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 5.0 – Long-Term Focus Variant Review

1. Market State & Trend Context
Monthly and weekly charts confirm a prolonged downtrend, but recent candles suggest a possible base forming. Daily chart momentum is turning up.
Verdict: HOLD/WAIT (Trend Turn Underway)

2. Price Position & Value Zones
Price is still below the 200-day MA but has reclaimed the 20- and 50-day MA. On the monthly, it trades well below long-term value levels (₱15–22).
Verdict: BUY (Undervalued, Early Recovery Zone)

3. Power Bars & Volume Confirmation
June candles on all timeframes show bullish intent with above-average volume. Daily bar shows volume spike on breakout.
Verdict: BUY (Volume-Confirmed Turnaround)

4. Entry Confirmation (Fundamental & Technical)
While fundamentals remain pressured due to retail sector weakness, the technicals suggest a tactical low is in.
Verdict: BUY (Technical-Driven Recovery Trade)

5. Stop-Loss / Thesis Violation Point
Soft stop around ₱6.30, below short-term moving averages. Violation here would negate early uptrend attempt.
Verdict: BUY with Soft Stop

6. Color Change / Reversal Signals
Green candles now dominate after months of red, signaling reversal in character. Monthly candle has broken prior month’s high.
Verdict: BUY

7. Profit-Taking Strategy
Target zones:

  • Partial: ₱9.50–₱11.00

  • Full: ₱13.00+ if sustained
    Verdict: BUY (Strong R/R Potential)

8. Re-Entry Plans
Re-enter near ₱6.80–₱7.00 or if new base forms above ₱8.00.
Verdict: Prepare Re-Entry Strategy

9. Position Size Strategy
With a ₱6,000 capital and 100-share board lot, plan for 3 layers of ₱2,000 each. Start with test buy, then accumulate.
Verdict: BUY SMALL (Layered Plan)

10. Ethical/Counter-Trend Opportunities
No ethical concerns. Retail-related recovery could play out in 2025.
Verdict: BUY


🚀 III. Final Stock Recommendation

Final Stock Recommendation: BUY

📅 Recommendation: Accumulate between ₱7.00–₱7.70 as a technical turnaround continues with volume confirmation.

🔢 Risk Management: Monitor support at ₱6.30. Violation would require thesis reassessment.

💰 Profit-Taking Strategy: Trim around ₱9.50–₱11.00; exit fully at ₱13.00+ if monthly trend confirms.

📆 Position Size Strategy: Start with 100 shares (~₱760), then add 100 shares each if pullbacks hold support or breakout above ₱8.00 occurs.


🔄 IV. Next Steps

  • Short-term traders: Watch for confirmation above ₱8.00 for swing trade continuation.

  • Long-term investors: Begin layering near current levels; treat this as early stage of value recovery.

  • Existing holders: Hold positions; consider adding near ₱7.00 if pullback occurs.


🧩 V. Layered Accumulation Plan for WLCON

(Based on Php6,000.00 Capital and 100-Share Board Lot)

🔹 Layer 1 – ₱2,000.00 → Entry Zone: ₱7.60–₱7.70 (Initial Buy)
🔹 Layer 2 – ₱2,000.00 → Entry Zone: ₱7.00–₱7.20 (Pullback Entry)
🔹 Layer 3 – ₱2,000.00 → Entry Zone: Breakout above ₱8.10 (Momentum Add-On)

Plan total = 300 shares
Estimated average = ₱7.40 if executed fully


📊 VI. Evaluation of Recent Action for Adherence to the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant

Score: 87/100

Most of the steps confirm a valid early accumulation signal. The only reason for not scoring a full BUY is the absence of a fully confirmed trend reversal on the monthly timeframe, which still suggests caution. However, the strong daily/weekly volume and structure justify the current BUY stance with layered accumulation.


🚨 Final Thought: Patience is key. This is the “value phase” where long-term accumulation matters more than momentum chasing. Stick to layers, respect soft stops, and allow time for trend maturity.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


Related Readings



Stock Price Review: AbaCore Capital Holdings, Inc. (ABA) Daily, Weekly, and Monthly Charts as of June 13, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant

Is it time to accumulate more shares of ABA or wait for a pullback? Let’s review its technical chart setup using our Hybrid 10-Step Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant.

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Review
  • Final Stock Recommendation
  • Next Steps
  • Layered Accumulation Plan
  • Evaluation of Adherence to Strategy

ABA daily chart showing volume breakout above consolidation as of June 13, 2023

ABA (PSE) Daily Chart – Multi-Timeframe Breakout Confirmed as of June 2, 2025


ABA weekly chart showing volume breakout above consolidation as of June 13, 2023

ABA (PSE) Weekly Chart – Multi-Timeframe Breakout Confirmed as of June 13, 2025

ABA monthly chart showing volume breakout above consolidation as of June 13, 2023

ABA (PSE) Monthly Chart – Multi-Timeframe Breakout Confirmed as of June 13, 2025

📍 I. Introduction

TRADE DETAILS

  • Date: June 13, 2025

  • Stock: AbaCore Capital Holdings, Inc. (ABA)

  • Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)

  • Timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly

  • Closing Price: ₱0.77

  • High: ₱0.81

  • Low: ₱0.77

  • 20-MA: ₱0.70 (Daily)

  • 200-MA: ₱0.61 (Daily)

ABA continues to consolidate just below its recent high, showing signs of strength while trading above all major moving averages on the daily chart. Momentum remains favorable across all timeframes. This review applies our Hybrid 10-Step Strategy 5.0 – Long-Term Focus Variant.


✅ II. Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 5.0 – Long-Term Focus Variant Review

1. Market State & Trend Context
The daily and weekly charts show a confirmed uptrend with all MAs aligned in a bullish structure. Monthly chart shows a bounce from multi-year lows.
Verdict: BUY

2. Price Position & Value Zones
ABA remains above its 20-day and 200-day MAs. It is currently mid-range between support at ₱0.70 and resistance near ₱0.84. Not yet overextended.
Verdict: BUY

3. Power Bars & Volume Confirmation
While there are no fresh power bars, prior accumulation was supported by strong bullish volume. Average daily volume remains healthy at 8.2M.
Verdict: BUY

4. Entry Confirmation (Fundamental & Technical)
Recent technical strength and long-term bounce structure from monthly lows support a long-term thesis. Fundamentals remain speculative but narrative-driven buying continues.
Verdict: BUY

5. Stop-Loss / Thesis Violation Point
Soft stop revised to ₱0.65 based on 20-day MA and layered support. A break below this would invalidate the recent momentum.
Verdict: BUY (Soft Stop in Place)

6. Color Change / Reversal Signals
No bearish reversal candle yet. Price action remains bullish with higher highs and higher lows.
Verdict: BUY

7. Profit-Taking Strategy
Near-term resistance zones are at ₱0.84, ₱0.95, and ₱1.10. Profit-taking can begin incrementally above ₱0.84.
Verdict: BUY

8. Re-Entry Plans
Re-entry zones if pullback occurs: ₱0.70, ₱0.65, ₱0.61. These are aligned with MAs and Fibonacci levels.
Verdict: BUY

9. Position Size Strategy
With a Php10,000 capital and 1,000-share board lot, the position will be layered into 3 tranches: ₱0.80 (executed), ₱0.70, ₱0.65.
Verdict: BUY

10. Ethical/Counter-Trend Opportunities
No short setups or counter-trend signals detected. Bias remains bullish.
Verdict: BUY


🚀 III. Final Stock Recommendation

Final Stock Recommendation: BUY

📅 Recommendation: Accumulate on pullbacks between ₱0.70 and ₱0.65 while price holds above ₱0.61.

🔢 Risk Management: Monitor soft stop at ₱0.65. Exit partially if price closes below 20-day MA with volume.

💰 Profit-Taking Strategy: Begin trimming at ₱0.84, with targets at ₱0.95 and ₱1.10 for mid-term swing.

📆 Position Size Strategy: Deploy 48% core position at ₱0.80 (executed), layer 32% at ₱0.70, and final 20% at ₱0.65.


🔄 IV. Next Steps

Short-term traders → Consider profit-taking above ₱0.84; rebuy only on confirmed pullback to ₱0.70.

Long-term investors → Continue layering in tranches below ₱0.75; thesis remains valid.

Existing holders → Hold current shares. Add on pullbacks if conviction remains. Monitor for breakout above ₱0.84.


🧩 V. Layered Accumulation Plan for ABA

(Based on Php10,000.00 Capital and 1,000-Share Board Lot)

We are applying a structured accumulation strategy for ABA based on our Hybrid 10-Step Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant. With a capital of Php10,000.00, the plan is as follows:

  • Core Position (Executed): ₱0.80 x 1,000 shares = ₱800.00 (48%)

  • Second Layer (Pending): ₱0.70 x 1,000 shares = ₱700.00 (32%)

  • Final Layer (Pending): ₱0.65 x 1,000 shares = ₱650.00 (20%)

This approach allows for flexibility and downside protection as we build our long-term position.


📊 VI. Evaluation of Recent Action for Adherence to the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant

Executed Action: BUY 1,000 shares @ ₱0.80 on June 3, 2025

Scoring each step out of 10:

  1. Market State: 9

  2. Price Position: 9

  3. Power Bars & Volume: 8

  4. Entry Confirmation: 8

  5. Stop-Loss: 9

  6. Reversal Signal: 9

  7. Profit Strategy: 8

  8. Re-Entry Plan: 9

  9. Position Sizing: 10

  10. Ethics/Counter-Trend: 9

Total Score: 88 / 100

✅ Overall, the action adhered closely to the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy and reflected high-conviction execution.


🚨 Final Thought: In long-term investing, consistency in following a rules-based strategy trumps emotional trades. Be patient, stick to layering zones, and manage soft stops wisely.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


Related Readings



Wednesday, June 11, 2025

Micro Stock Trader’s Guide to Layered Accumulation and Phased Exit Plans – Hybrid 10-Step Strategy 5.0

Learn how Micro Stock Trader applies Layered Accumulation and Phased Exit Plans in its Hybrid 10-Step Strategy – Long-Term Focus.

Contents:

  • What is the Layered Accumulation Plan?
  • What is the Phased Exit Plan?
  • Why It Matters in the Long-Term Focus Variant
  • Final Thought


Bar chart illustration of Layered Accumulation (uptrend) and Phased Exit (downtrend) strategies in a financial investing context.

Visual guide to the Layered Accumulation Plan and Phased Exit Plan under the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant.

When trading long-term in fundamentally promising but technically volatile stocks, Micro Stock Trader employs a refined, capital-conscious methodology built into our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 5.0 – Long-Term Focus Variant. Two of its core features are the Layered Accumulation Plan and the Phased Exit Plan. These aren't just passive holding strategies — they are tactical frameworks designed to increase reward and manage risk while aligning with real-world trading constraints like board lots and capital availability.


📥 What is the Layered Accumulation Plan?

The Layered Accumulation Plan is our disciplined, step-by-step buying strategy. Instead of deploying all available capital in a single entry, we accumulate shares gradually at pre-identified price zones that align with value areas, technical supports, or retracement targets.

Key Features:

  • Capital-Based Layering: We define accumulation layers using actual capital (e.g., ₱3,000 total) and break it into small, board-lot-compliant chunks (e.g., 100-share lots).

  • Zone-Based Triggers: Each layer is activated based on pullback zones, usually near the 20-MA, support lines, or fundamental undervaluation levels.

  • Soft Stop-Loss Principle: We use trend shifts or fundamental deterioration as thesis violation points—not rigid cut-loss prices.

This method reflects patience and value discipline, ensuring we don’t chase price surges and instead build a base in attractive zones with minimal emotional exposure.


📤 What is the Phased Exit Plan?

The Phased Exit Plan is the counterpart of our accumulation method. Rather than waiting for a "perfect" peak to exit, we scale out in portions as price targets or overvaluation zones are hit.

Key Features:

  • Targeted Profit Zones: We exit partial positions as price moves through technical resistances, Fibonacci targets, or trailing breakout peaks.

  • Bias Toward Partial Wins: By locking in profits along the way, we protect gains even if the full run-up doesn't materialize.

  • Trend-Based Final Exit: The last tranche is usually held until a major reversal signal occurs or fundamentals deteriorate.

This approach allows us to protect capital, capture upside gradually, and avoid overconfidence in tops — perfect for volatile, speculative, or developing stocks that may surge unexpectedly then retrace deeply.


🧠 Why It Matters in the Long-Term Focus Variant

The Long-Term Focus Variant of our Hybrid 10-Step Strategy is designed for slow, high-conviction builds on undervalued but promising stocks. Here, patience, scale, and discipline are critical.

  • The Layered Accumulation Plan respects liquidity constraints and allows for adaptive averaging during pullbacks.

  • The Phased Exit Plan avoids the "all-or-nothing" mindset, encouraging a steady realization of gains while still giving room for a potential run-up.

Together, they reflect our belief: Success isn’t built on timing tops and bottoms—it’s built on strategic exposure over time.


💬 Final Thought

In long-term investing, where volatility can mislead and greed can trap, our Layered Accumulation and Phased Exit Plans help enforce structure, reduce regret, and promote consistency. These aren’t rigid rules—they’re flexible frameworks grounded in discipline, patience, and conviction.

This is how we trade not just with charts, but with character.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Tuesday, June 10, 2025

Stock Price Review: Forum Pacific, Inc. (FPI) Weekly and Monthly Charts as of June 10, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant

Is FPI a long-term value opportunity or a speculative breakout? Our updated stock price review explores this question using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy – Long-Term Focus.

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Review
  • Final Stock Recommendation
  • Next Steps
  • Layered Accumulation Plan
  • Evaluation of Adherence to Strategy


FPI weekly chart showing volume breakout above consolidation

Forum Pacific, Inc. (FPI) weekly chart as of June 10, 2025


FPI monthly chart showing volume breakout above consolidation

Forum Pacific, Inc. (FPI) monthly chart as of June 10, 2025

📍 I. Introduction

TRADE DETAILS
Date: June 10, 2025
Stock: Forum Pacific, Inc. (FPI)
Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
Timeframes: Weekly, Monthly
Closing Price: ₱0.2500
High: ₱0.2900
Low: ₱0.2500
20-MA: ₱0.2220 (Weekly), ₱0.2241 (Monthly)
200-MA: ₱0.2368 (Weekly)
50-MA: ₱0.2284 (Weekly), ₱0.2335 (Monthly)
8-MA: ₱0.2275 (Weekly), ₱0.2231 (Monthly)

A 10,000-share position was executed at ₱0.25 on June 10, 2025, anticipating a breakout confirmation following a surge in volume and price.

This review uses the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 5.0 – Long-Term Focus Variant, designed for position trades that accumulate over value zones and hold through long-term cycles.


✅ II. Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 5.0 – Long-Term Focus Variant Review

1. Market State & Trend Context
On the weekly chart, FPI has broken out from a long consolidation base, with volume surging to a 16-week high. On the monthly chart, price is reclaiming territory last seen in mid-2023, above key MAs.
Verdict: BUY (score: 9/10)

2. Price Position & Value Zones
Price has moved slightly above the 200-week MA but is still within the broader long-term value zone identified between ₱0.22 and ₱0.25.
Verdict: BUY (score: 8/10)

3. Power Bars & Volume Confirmation
The most recent weekly candle is a power bar with an extended body and high volume. Monthly candle also shows increasing demand.
Verdict: BUY (score: 10/10)

4. Entry Confirmation (Fundamental & Technical)
There’s limited fundamental news, but technically this is a high-probability volume breakout zone above long-term consolidation.
Verdict: BUY (score: 7/10)

5. Stop-Loss / Thesis Violation Point
A soft stop can be positioned below ₱0.22, the 20- and 50-week MA convergence and volume base.
Verdict: BUY (score: 8/10)

6. Color Change / Reversal Signals
The orange 8-MA is sloping upward, crossing over key MAs. Weekly and monthly trend flips suggest sustained directional change.
Verdict: BUY (score: 9/10)

7. Profit-Taking Strategy
Initial resistance lies at ₱0.30–₱0.34; multi-year resistance band may cap rallies, suggesting partial take-profits at those zones.
Verdict: BUY (score: 8/10)

8. Re-Entry Plans
Pullbacks to ₱0.22–₱0.23 are favorable for re-entry or position additions.
Verdict: BUY (score: 9/10)

9. Position Size Strategy
FPI’s board lot is 10,000 shares per tick size; Php3,000 allows for 1 board lot. Begin with 1–2 lots, add near support.
Verdict: BUY (score: 9/10)

10. Ethical/Counter-Trend Opportunities
No negative ESG news. Low-cap nature adds speculative risk but no violations detected for our ethical account.
Verdict: BUY (score: 8/10)

🎯 Final Score: 85/100 – STRONG BUY ZONE UNDER HYBRID 10-STEP STRATEGY


🚀 III. Final Stock Recommendation

Final Stock Recommendation: BUY

📅 Recommendation: Accumulate at ₱0.22–₱0.25 as price confirms breakout with volume and multi-timeframe alignment.

🔢 Risk Management: Soft stop below ₱0.22 or if large red bar closes under 200-MA.

💰 Profit-Taking Strategy: Consider partial exits at ₱0.30, ₱0.34, and ₱0.45 if volume sustains.

📆 Position Size Strategy: Start with 1–2 board lots (Php2,500–₱5,000) and layer on dips near the 20-week MA.


🔄 IV. Next Steps

Short-term traders → Wait for an intraday pullback toward ₱0.23–₱0.24 to re-enter with tight stops.

Long-term investors → Begin layering from ₱0.22–₱0.25, hold as long as price remains above trend MAs.

Existing holders → Maintain position, observe volume continuation, and consider partial profits if price reaches ₱0.30+


🧩 V. Layered Accumulation Plan for FPI

(Based on Php3,000.00 Capital and 10,000-Share Board Lot)

  • Layer 1 (Initial Entry): 10,000 shares at ₱0.25 = ₱2,500 (Executed June 10, 2025)

  • Layer 2 (Pullback Buy): 10,000 shares at ₱0.23 = ₱2,300 (GTC suggested)

  • Layer 3 (Final Add-on): 10,000 shares at ₱0.22 if market retests MA20 base

Plan total: 30,000 shares (₱7,300 exposure max) over 3 layers


📊 VI. Evaluation of Recent Action for Adherence to the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant

Executed Trade: June 10, 2025 – BUY 10,000 shares at ₱0.25

  • Market Context: 9/10

  • Value Zone Entry: 8/10

  • Power Bar Confirmation: 10/10

  • Technical Validity: 7/10

  • Stop-Loss Consideration: 8/10

  • MA Crossover Signal: 9/10

  • Profit Setup: 8/10

  • Re-Entry Strategy: 9/10

  • Lot Compliance & Layering: 9/10

  • Ethical Trading Fit: 8/10

🎯 Final Score: 85/100 – ALIGNED WITH STRATEGY AND TRADEABLE


🚨 Final Thought: Patience and discipline are key—stay focused on value zones and thesis integrity. Let the chart do the talking.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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GAWLOO: Ang Lugawang May Sarap ng Southeast Asia — Gawa ng Batangueñong Galing Abroad

Kung taga-Rosario, Batangas ka at nag-crave ka ng lugaw na may level-up na twist—eto na ang sagot sa panalangin ng sikmura mo: GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience.

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GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience Dine-In

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Kung taga-Rosario, Batangas ka at nag-crave ka ng lugaw na may level-up na twist—eto na ang sagot sa panalangin ng sikmura mo: GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience.

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Hindi mo kailangang bumyahe pa sa abroad para matikman ang ganitong congee—₱80 lang ang Small Bowl na may 1 Topping, at kung mas gutom ka, may Large Bowl for ₱90. Pwede ka ring magpa-top up ng 2, 3 o 4 na toppings para sa ultimate lugaw overload!

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