Should long-term investors continue accumulating FPI after a recent breakout? This review applies the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Review
- Final Stock Recommendation
- Next Steps
- Layered Accumulation Plan
- Evaluation of Adherence to Strategy
FPI (PSE) Daily Chart – Multi-Timeframe Breakout Confirmed as of June 13, 2025
FPI (PSE) Weekly Chart – Multi-Timeframe Breakout Confirmed as of June 13, 2025
FPI (PSE) Monthly Chart – Multi-Timeframe Breakout Confirmed as of June 13, 2025
📍 I. Introduction
TRADE DETAILS
Date: June 13, 2025
Stock: Forum Pacific, Inc. (FPI)
Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange
Timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly
Closing Price: ₱0.2300
High: ₱0.2300 (Daily), ₱0.2900 (Weekly/Monthly)
Low: ₱0.2300 (Daily), ₱0.2250 (Weekly/Monthly)
20-MA: ₱0.2245 (Daily), ₱0.2210 (Weekly), ₱0.2230 (Monthly)
200-MA: ₱0.2248 (Daily), ₱0.2210 (Weekly), ₱0.2230 (Monthly)
Forum Pacific, Inc. (FPI) has staged a significant breakout attempt, with volume surging and price spiking up to ₱0.29 intraday. Although it closed back at ₱0.23, this movement suggests heightened speculative interest. We recently entered with 10,000 shares at ₱0.25 on June 10, 2025. The strategy used is the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 5.0 – Long-Term Focus Variant.
✅ II. Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 5.0 – Long-Term Focus Variant Review
1. Market State & Trend Context
Volume spike and bullish expansion bar observed on all timeframes. Daily, weekly, and monthly candles are all green, signaling breakout momentum.
➡ Verdict: BUY
2. Price Position & Value Zones
At ₱0.2300, FPI is trading slightly above the 20-day and 200-day MAs across all timeframes. However, it is now below our entry at ₱0.25, suggesting a near-term dip may offer better re-entry.
➡ Verdict: WAIT (for better entry within support zone ₱0.21–₱0.23)
3. Power Bars & Volume Confirmation
The June 10–12 rally featured a strong power bar with extreme volume confirmation—highest in months.
➡ Verdict: BUY
4. Entry Confirmation (Fundamental & Technical)
Fundamental catalysts are still unclear, but technically, FPI printed a rare clean breakout from range. Entry was technically justified but slightly late.
➡ Verdict: BUY (with caution)
5. Stop-Loss / Thesis Violation Point
Soft stop around ₱0.20 to protect capital without disrupting long-term plan. We avoid hard stops due to thin liquidity.
➡ Verdict: HOLD
6. Color Change / Reversal Signals
No red reversal bar yet post-breakout. However, the long wick above ₱0.29 is a short-term caution sign.
➡ Verdict: HOLD
7. Profit-Taking Strategy
First partial exit near ₱0.29–₱0.30, next tier at ₱0.34, and full exit if extended to ₱0.40.
➡ Verdict: HOLD (no trimming until ₱0.29 retest)
8. Re-Entry Plans
Plan re-entry near ₱0.21–₱0.23 if price dips with stabilizing volume.
➡ Verdict: WAIT
9. Position Size Strategy (Include board lot conversion and layering plan)
With ₱6,000 capital and 10,000-share board lot, scaling must be done in 10k blocks. Initial position already placed.
➡ Verdict: HOLD (next entry: on pullback with lower wick confirmation)
10. Ethical/Counter-Trend Opportunities
None at this stage. Breakout was driven by price-action, not fundamental story.
➡ Verdict: HOLD
🚀 III. Final Stock Recommendation
Final Stock Recommendation: HOLD / BUY-on-Pullback
📅 Recommendation: Accumulate more only on dips to ₱0.21–₱0.23. The price is below our entry and near MA clusters, suggesting support.
🔢 Risk Management: Use a soft stop below ₱0.20 in case of sustained sell-off. Avoid panic exits unless breakdown is confirmed on weekly close.
💰 Profit-Taking Strategy: Begin selling at ₱0.29–₱0.30, then ₱0.34 and ₱0.40 if upside momentum continues.
📆 Position Size Strategy: Start with minimum board lot (10,000 shares per layer). Add only if the next red-to-green reversal occurs near the 20-MA.
🔄 IV. Next Steps
Short-term traders → Wait for a red-to-green reversal near ₱0.22 before re-entering.
Long-term investors → Hold core position, watch for weekly close stability above ₱0.23.
Existing holders → Hold. Monitor volume. Consider trimming above ₱0.29 if there is a failed breakout retest.
🧩 V. Layered Accumulation Plan for FPI
(Based on Php6,000 Capital and 10,000-Share Board Lot)
-
First Layer (Executed): ₱0.25 on June 10, 2025, 10,000 shares = ₱2,500
-
Second Layer (Planned): ₱0.23 area if low volume pullback = ₱2,300
-
Third Layer (Planned): ₱0.21–₱0.215 area on dip = ₱2,150
If both layers fill, final average cost will approximate ₱0.23 for 30,000 shares.
📊 VI. Evaluation of Recent Action for Adherence to the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant
Trade: BUY 10,000 shares at ₱0.25 on June 10, 2025
Market State and Trend Context:
The trade was made during a confirmed breakout phase. There was a strong expansion bar accompanied by a dramatic increase in volume, signaling the start of momentum. This was a near-ideal context to enter based on technical trend behavior.
Score: 9/10-
Price Position and Value Zones:
Entry at ₱0.25 was slightly above the value zone defined by the cluster of moving averages. While technically justified by momentum, it was not optimal for value accumulation. Pullback opportunities around ₱0.21 to ₱0.23 would have provided better positioning.
Score: 6/10 -
Power Bars and Volume Confirmation:
The power bar printed on June 10 had full body range with strong volume spike—clear institutional or speculative activity. The trade aligned well with this cue.
Score: 10/10 -
Entry Confirmation (Fundamental and Technical):
While there was no known catalyst or news, the technical structure justified the entry. The breakout from months of consolidation was clearly visible across all timeframes.
Score: 8/10 -
Stop-Loss / Thesis Violation Strategy:
A soft stop approach was correctly used, targeting below ₱0.20 as a thesis violation zone. This reflects discipline appropriate to long-term positioning in a thinly traded stock.
Score: 9/10 -
Color Change / Reversal Signal:
No immediate reversal signal was evident, although the presence of a long wick from ₱0.29 is a warning of short-term selling pressure. The trade remains intact but must be monitored for weakness.
Score: 8/10 -
Profit-Taking Strategy:
Profit-taking levels are defined above ₱0.29 and up to ₱0.40. However, none of these levels have been hit yet, and the entry was relatively close to the top of the recent spike. This weakens early exit flexibility.
Score: 7/10 -
Re-Entry Plans:
A better entry window now appears to be forming near ₱0.21 to ₱0.23. The initial trade did not factor this in but planning for a second tranche improves strategic discipline.
Score: 6/10 -
Position Size and Layering Compliance:
The trade adhered to the board lot of 10,000 shares and matched the capital structure defined in our long-term plan. Layering strategy is already in place for follow-up orders.
Score: 10/10 -
Ethical and Counter-Trend Considerations:
No unethical or counter-trend actions were evident in this setup. The trade was aligned with technical breakout conditions and remained within the investor’s ethical and portfolio guidelines.
Score: 7/10
Overall Score: 80 out of 100
Final Verdict: This was a valid breakout trade executed within strategic parameters. However, the next tranche should aim for deeper value alignment and improved risk-reward balance.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
