Showing posts with label PSE Trading. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PSE Trading. Show all posts

Sunday, January 26, 2025

MER (Manila Electric Company) Stock Analysis: January 24, 2025

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

Evaluating MER’s Closing Chart Using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy

Trade Details

  • Stock: Manila Electric Company (MER)
  • Market: PSE (Philippine Stock Exchange)
  • Timeframe: 1-Day (Daily)
  • Closing Price: ₱486.00 (-1.42%)
  • Day’s Range: ₱486.00 - ₱494.40
  • 20-MA: ₱484.71 (Short-Term Trend)
  • 200-MA: ₱421.92 (Long-Term Trend)
  • Volume: 164.98K (SMA 9)
Manila Electric Company (MER) stock chart with moving averages and retracement levels marked for analysis.

MER stock price analysis on January 24, 2025, showing key pullback levels and trend indicators.


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

  • Trend: MER remains in an uptrend as the price is above both the 20-day moving average (₱484.71) and the 200-day moving average (₱421.92).
  • Positioning: The price remains in a consolidation phase near the previous resistance of ₱500. However, a pullback from recent highs suggests some short-term selling pressure.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Moving Averages & Key Levels

  • The price is trading slightly above the 20-MA, indicating that the short-term trend remains intact.
  • The 50% Sweet Spot Pullback level is ₱476.85, which could serve as a potential support zone.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength

  • No strong green power bars are present in the latest price action.
  • The recent red candles indicate a retracement, but the price is still holding above the 20-MA, suggesting a healthy pullback rather than a reversal.

Step 4: Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies

  • The price is currently near the 25% Sweet Spot Pullback (₱490.18).
  • If a bullish reversal forms in the next session, it could signal an entry opportunity.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

  • Stop-loss should be set below the 50% pullback level (₱476.85).
  • A deeper retracement towards ₱450.20 (100% pullback) would indicate a trend failure.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

  • A bullish reversal candle (green bar) near the 25%-50% pullback zone would confirm a potential buy signal.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

  • First target: ₱503.50 (Recent high)
  • Second target: ₱510+ (Breakout potential)

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

  • If MER retests the ₱476.85 level and bounces, another entry opportunity may emerge.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

  • Larger positions can be taken near the 33%-50% retracement zone (₱476-₱490).
  • If the price falls below ₱450, the trend would likely be invalidated.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

  • Since MER is in an uptrend, counter-trend trades are not advisable unless a complete trend reversal occurs.

Final Trade Assessment

✅ Bullish Outlook: Despite the pullback, the price remains above key support levels and the short-term moving average.

⚠️ Key Levels to Watch:

  • Support: ₱484.71 (20-MA), ₱476.85 (50% pullback)
  • Resistance: ₱503.50 (previous high), ₱510 (breakout level)

📌 Strategy Moving Forward:

  • Watch for a bullish reversal candle near ₱476-₱490.
  • Enter with confirmation and set a stop-loss below ₱476.85.
  • First target: ₱503.50; Second target: ₱510+.

Next Steps

  • Traders should monitor if MER stabilizes near the 25%-50% pullback zone.
  • A bounce above ₱490 would confirm the continuation of the uptrend.
  • A break below ₱476 would indicate further downside risk.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Friday, January 24, 2025

ATI Intra-Day Chart Evaluation – Buy or Sell Decision

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

Trade Details

  • Stock: Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI)
  • Exchange: PSE
  • Timeframe: Intra-Day (Daily Chart Reference)
  • Date: January 24, 2025
  • Closing Price: ₱17.02
  • High: ₱17.46
  • Low: ₱16.34
  • 20-MA (Short-Term Trend): ₱16.81
  • 200-MA (Long-Term Trend): ₱18.61
  • Price Movement: Potential trend reversal with strong volume
  • Volume: 159.2K, significantly higher than previous sessions
Stock chart of ATI showing price reversal above 20-MA with increased volume and key resistance levels.

ATI Intra-Day Chart Analysis – January 24, 2025


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

ATI has been in a clear downtrend for several months, with price consistently trading below the 20-MA and 200-MA. However, today’s strong green candle, breaking above the 20-MA with high volume, signals a potential trend reversal.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels

  • Price broke above the 20-MA (₱16.81), suggesting a short-term momentum shift.
  • The 200-MA (₱18.61) is still above, meaning the long-term trend is bearish.
  • Resistance levels:
    • First resistance: ₱17.50 (recent swing high)
    • Major resistance: ₱18.00-₱18.50 (near 200-MA)
  • Support levels:
    • Immediate support: ₱16.80 (20-MA)
    • Stronger support: ₱16.30 (recent low)

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength

  • A strong green power bar suggests high buying pressure.
  • Volume is significantly higher, confirming potential institutional accumulation.
  • No major retracement yet, but price holding above ₱16.80 is crucial for further upside.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels

  • Ideal entry range: ₱16.80-₱17.00, as price recently cleared the 20-MA.
  • A pullback to ₱16.50-₱16.80 would provide a higher probability entry.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

  • Stop-loss below ₱16.80 for short-term traders.
  • A wider stop at ₱16.30 for a more conservative risk approach.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

  • If price closes above ₱17.00 with another green candle on Monday, it confirms the reversal strength.
  • A red candle close below ₱16.80 would signal weakness.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

  • First target: ₱17.50, a key resistance zone.
  • Second target: ₱18.00, a pre-breakdown level.
  • Final target: ₱18.60-₱19.00, near the 200-MA resistance.

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

  • If price retraces to ₱16.80, a second entry for additional shares can be considered.
  • A retracement to ₱16.50 would offer another buying opportunity.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

  • Increase position if price clears ₱17.50.
  • Reduce exposure if price struggles below ₱16.80.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

  • No counter-trend trade setup, as today’s price action signals an early-stage reversal.

Final Trade Recommendation: BUY

✅ Recommendation: BUY today at ₱16.80-₱17.00, given the breakout above the 20-MA with strong volume.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss below ₱16.80 to protect against downside risk.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Target ₱17.50, ₱18.00, and ₱18.60 for gradual exits.

✅ Position Size Strategy: Start with a moderate position and add if momentum continues above ₱17.50.

Next Steps

📌 Monitor price action at ₱17.50. If the stock breaks and holds above ₱17.50, consider adding exposure.

📌 Watch for weakness below ₱16.80. If the stock fails to hold the breakout, reassess and tighten stop-loss levels.

📌 Look for re-entry opportunities. If price retraces back to ₱16.80 or lower, reassess for a second entry.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Evaluation of Trade No. 4 Evaluation – Premiere Island Power REIT Corporation (PREIT)

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

Trade Details

  • Trade No.: 4/20
  • Date: January 24, 2025
  • Action: Buy
  • Entry Type: Momentum Entry
  • Signal: Previous day’s green bar close and price within the 50%-75% trend reversal zone
  • Stock: Premiere Island Power REIT Corporation (PREIT)
  • Shares Bought: 1,000
  • Entry Price: ₱2.21
  • Position Size: 1/3 of PREIT test trade allocation
Stock chart of PREIT showing trade entry near 50% pullback sweet spot with moving averages and key levels.

PREIT Trade No. 4 – Post-Trade Analysis Chart


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context - Score: 9/10

PREIT was in consolidation with a slight upward bias, forming a higher low structure near the 50% pullback sweet spot at ₱2.20. The previous day’s green closing bar signaled potential momentum continuation.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels - Score: 10/10

  • Price was above the 20-MA (₱2.19), indicating short-term bullish momentum.
  • Price remained well above the 200-MA (₱1.98), confirming long-term stability.
  • The entry at ₱2.21 was aligned with the 50% pullback sweet spot, providing an optimal risk-reward ratio.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 8/10

  • The previous day closed with a green power bar, confirming buying strength.
  • The current session started with stability, maintaining price above the 50% retracement zone.
  • The absence of immediate selling pressure strengthened the trade conviction.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels - Score: 9/10

  • Entry at ₱2.21 aligned with the 50% to 75% trend reversal zone, which historically acts as a high-probability area for trend continuation.
  • Price action confirmed momentum stability at this level, justifying the 1/3 position size.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 9/10

  • Initial stop-loss placed at ₱2.13 (below 33% retracement), ensuring minimal downside risk.
  • A more conservative exit trigger would be below ₱2.19, breaking short-term moving average support.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation - Score: 7/10

  • A red candle close below ₱2.19 would weaken the bullish thesis.
  • Green candles at ₱2.20 or above would confirm bullish trend continuation.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 9/10

  • First profit target: ₱2.26 (66% retracement level)
  • Second profit target: ₱2.30 (75% pullback sweet spot)
  • A final exit would be considered at ₱2.40, the previous high.

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 8/10

  • If price retraces back to ₱2.20, a second entry for additional shares could be considered.
  • A failed breakout above ₱2.26 would trigger profit-taking and re-evaluation.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management - Score: 8/10

  • If price holds above ₱2.26, an additional position could be added.
  • If price breaks below ₱2.19, a manual exit would be evaluated.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 10/10

  • No counter-trend trades were taken, as the uptrend remained intact.

Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 8.8/10

✅ Trade Execution: Well-timed entry within the 50% pullback sweet spot, aligning with trend continuation signals.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss set below ₱2.19, ensuring controlled downside.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Initial target at ₱2.26, scaling out at ₱2.30-₱2.40.

✅ Position Size Strategy: 1/3 of PREIT test allocation, allowing flexibility for future re-entries.

Next Steps

📌 Monitor price action near ₱2.26. If the stock breaks and holds above ₱2.26, consider adding exposure.

📌 Watch for weakness below ₱2.19. If the stock loses momentum, reassess and tighten stop-loss levels.

📌 Look for re-entry opportunities. If price retraces back to ₱2.20 or lower, evaluate a second position.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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PREIT Intra-Day Trade Evaluation – Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

Trade Details

  • Stock: Premiere Island Power REIT Corporation (PREIT)
  • Exchange: PSE
  • Timeframe: Intra-Day (Daily Chart Reference)
  • Date: January 24, 2025
  • Closing Price: ₱2.21
  • High: ₱2.21
  • Low: ₱2.21
  • 20-MA (Short-Term Trend): ₱2.19
  • 200-MA (Long-Term Trend): ₱1.98
  • Key Pullback Levels:
    • 100% (Recent High): ₱2.40
    • 75% Pullback Sweet Spot: ₱2.30
    • 66% Pullback: ₱2.26
    • 50% Pullback Sweet Spot: ₱2.20
    • 33% Pullback: ₱2.13
    • 0% Pullback (Major Support): ₱2.00
A daily stock chart of PREIT showing price near the 50% pullback sweet spot and moving averages.

PREIT Intra-Day Chart Analysis – January 24, 2025


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

PREIT is trading in a sideways consolidation phase, with price fluctuating around the 50% pullback sweet spot (₱2.20). The 20-MA (₱2.19) and 200-MA (₱1.98) suggest a stabilizing trend, but price needs a breakout above ₱2.26 to confirm bullish momentum.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels

  • Price is above both the 20-MA and 200-MA, signaling bullish bias.
  • The 50% pullback sweet spot (₱2.20) is being retested, which is a potential buy zone.
  • The 200-MA (₱1.98) acts as strong long-term support.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength

  • The breakout above ₱2.20 is forming a green power bar.
  • Volume is slightly increasing, indicating potential buying pressure.
  • No major retracement yet, but price needs to hold above ₱2.20 for further upside confirmation.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels

  • Ideal entry zones: ₱2.20 (50% sweet spot) or ₱2.13 (33% retracement).
  • Current price is testing ₱2.21, making this a valid momentum entry.
  • A more conservative entry would be near ₱2.13 if a pullback occurs.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

  • A stop-loss should be placed below ₱2.13 (33% retracement).
  • A more aggressive stop would be below ₱2.19 (20-MA support).

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

  • The transition from red candles to green power bars at ₱2.20 strengthens the bullish case.
  • If price drops below ₱2.19 and turns red, it could signal trend weakness.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

  • First profit target: ₱2.26 (66% retracement)
  • Secondary profit zone: ₱2.30 (75% sweet spot)
  • Full profit-taking recommended at ₱2.40 (recent high).

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

  • If price retraces back to ₱2.13-₱2.20, it could offer a secondary entry.
  • Another opportunity could arise if price breaks ₱2.26 and pulls back for retest.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

  • Increase position if price holds above ₱2.26.
  • Reduce exposure if price drops below ₱2.19.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

  • No counter-trend trades advisable unless price drops back to ₱2.00 (0% retracement).

Final Trade Assessment

  • PREIT is testing the 50% pullback sweet spot at ₱2.20, making it an interesting level for a breakout play.
  • A confirmation above ₱2.26 strengthens the bullish case.
  • Profit-taking should be planned around ₱2.26-₱2.40.
  • Ideal re-entry zones lie around ₱2.13-₱2.20.

Next Steps

  • Monitor if price holds above ₱2.20 for a potential long entry.
  • If price breaks ₱2.26 with strong volume, add to positions.
  • Watch for pullbacks near the 20-MA (₱2.19) for better risk management.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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SCC Morning Session Trade Evaluation – Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

Trade Details

  • Stock: Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC)
  • Exchange: PSE
  • Timeframe: Daily Chart (Morning Session)
  • Date: January 24, 2025
  • Closing Price: ₱36.45
  • High: ₱36.50
  • Low: ₱36.20
  • 20-MA (Short-Term Trend): ₱35.02
  • 200-MA (Long-Term Trend): ₱32.99
  • Price Movement: Uptrend continuation

A daily stock chart of SCC showing price movement above the 20-day and 200-day moving averages.

SCC Morning Session Chart Analysis – January 24, 2025


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

SCC is currently in an uptrend, with price action above both the 20-day MA (₱35.02) and 200-day MA (₱32.99). The recent price action suggests a multi-bar strength move, indicating bullish sentiment.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels

  • Price is trading above both moving averages, confirming an established uptrend.
  • The 20-MA has a positive slope, reinforcing short-term strength.
  • The 200-MA serves as a strong support, indicating a long-term bullish bias.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength

  • The stock has consistently formed green power bars, showing strong buying momentum.
  • No major retracement has occurred, with price holding near recent highs.
  • No immediate signs of exhaustion, supporting a continuation bias.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels

  • Since price has not retraced significantly from its rally, an entry at this level might be considered late.
  • Ideal entries should be on a pullback to the 33%-50% retracement zones, which is currently not present.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

  • If entering now, a tight stop-loss should be placed just below the 20-MA (₱35.02) to minimize risk.
  • A more conservative stop would be below ₱34.50, aligning with a minor support area.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

  • No red candles near key support levels, meaning no immediate reversal signals.
  • Price remains above the retracement zones, so there’s no need to be overly cautious yet.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

  • Partial profit-taking can be planned near ₱37.00-₱38.00, aligning with resistance zones.
  • If price retraces back to ₱35.00, it may offer a re-entry opportunity.

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

  • Given the strong rally, an ideal re-entry zone would be around ₱34.50-₱35.00 if price pulls back.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

  • Larger positions can be taken if price pulls back to a 33%-50% retracement zone.
  • If price extends beyond ₱37.00, a trailing stop should be considered.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

  • No counter-trend trades are advisable, as the trend remains intact.

Final Trade Assessment

  • SCC is showing strong bullish momentum, with price making higher highs.
  • Immediate entry may not be optimal as price has already extended.
  • Better entries should be on a pullback towards the 20-MA.
  • Profit-taking should be considered near ₱37.00-₱38.00.

Next Steps

  • Wait for a pullback before adding positions.
  • Monitor resistance levels for potential reversal signals.
  • If price breaks ₱37.00 with strong volume, consider holding for further upside.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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