Post 6 brings together TEL’s fundamentals, technical condition, valuation, and risk—but the final allocation decision cannot be made from TEL alone.
The portfolio already carries ICT, URC, and WLCON from earlier architecture. The real task is to gradually convert these MH 1.0 carryovers into clearly classified, properly sized, and risk-governed MH 2.0 holdings.
Originally published: July 27, 2026 · Last updated: July 28, 2026
Links to related posts
- TEL Stock Study, Post 1: TEL Series Introduction
- TEL Stock Study, Post 2: TEL Fundamental Analysis
- TEL Stock Study, Post 3: TEL Technical Analysis
- TEL Stock Study, Post 4: TEL Valuation
- TEL Stock Study, Post 5: TEL Risk Management
- TEL Stock Study, Post 6: TEL Capital Allocation
Ang Culminating Question
Post 6 is where the entire TEL Stock Study converges.
Sa Fundamental Analysis, tinanong natin kung matatag ba ang negosyo ng PLDT at kung sustainable ba ang regular dividend.
Sa Technical Analysis, tinanong natin kung nagbibigay ba ang daily chart ng permission to act.
Sa Valuation, tinanong natin kung magkano ang reasonable value ng TEL at kung saan nagsisimula ang valuation Margin of Safety.
Sa Risk Management, tinanong natin kung gaano kalaki at kabilis maaaring bumagsak ang presyo—and where a VaR event may land inside or beyond the TEL SDA Refill Ladder.
Ngayon, kailangan nating sagutin ang pinakamahirap na tanong:
Magkano pa ang nararapat ilaan sa TEL kapag ang portfolio ay mayroon nang malaking ICT Core Anchor at existing URC at WLCON carryover positions?
Capital allocation is no longer a stand-alone TEL decision.
It is now a portfolio decision.
Ang Portfolio na Minana Mula sa MH 1.0
Ang MH 2.0 portfolio ay hindi nagsimula sa blankong spreadsheet.
May dala na tayong mga existing positions mula sa MH 1.0.
Some of these holdings were accumulated under earlier assumptions, earlier layer systems, and a less formal portfolio-role architecture.
Hindi natin sila basta-basta ibinebenta para lamang makagawa ng malinis na MH 2.0 portfolio.
That would ignore:
- current market conditions;
- unrealized losses;
- dividend potential;
- recovery opportunities;
- and the possibility of exiting on strength rather than weakness.
Instead, we are following a more gradual process:
Study each carryover stock, define its proper MH 2.0 role, determine its acceptable allocation, and repair the position when market strength creates the opportunity.
This makes Post 6 more than a TEL allocation decision.
It becomes a record of how the portfolio transitions from MH 1.0 to MH 2.0 without forcing unnecessary exits.
Hindi Pagpapalit ng Portfolio ang MH 2.0
The transition to MH 2.0 does not require us to discard every position accumulated under MH 1.0.
The upgrade is primarily about governance.
A carryover stock may remain in the portfolio if it can be given:
- a clear portfolio role;
- a defensible allocation;
- a valid fundamental thesis;
- a technical execution framework;
- a valuation reference;
- a risk limit;
- and a documented harvest or repair plan.
Therefore, the question is not:
Galing ba ito sa MH 1.0?
The better question is:
Can this position be governed as an MH 2.0 holding?
A stock becomes MH 2.0-compliant not because it was purchased recently, but because its purpose, size, risks, and decision rules have become explicit.
Ang Apat na Kasalukuyang Stock Roles
The emerging Micro Harvesting Stocks Portfolio Pillar currently contains four meaningful positions.
ICT
ICT holds the role of:
Core Anchor and Special Engine
Current position:
500 shares at ₱973.5377 average net cost
Net capital represented by the position:
Approximately ₱486,768.85
TEL
TEL holds the role of:
Low Volatility Dividend Harvester
Current position:
200 shares at ₱1,277.4743 average net cost
Net acquisition capital:
Approximately ₱255,494.86
URC
URC is currently being treated as a:
Medium Volatility Harvesting Stock
Current position:
2,000 shares at ₱66.2014 average net cost
Net acquisition capital:
Approximately ₱132,402.80
Current portfolio weight:
Approximately 10%
WLCON
WLCON was classified under MH 1.0 as a:
High Volatility Harvesting Stock
Current position:
30,000 shares at ₱6.6183 average net cost
Net acquisition capital:
Approximately ₱198,549.00
Current portfolio weight:
Approximately 14%
WLCON’s final classification remains subject to its own stock study.
It may remain in the High Volatility bucket if its actual price behavior and harvest opportunities justify the role.
It may also be reclassified as Medium Volatility if that better reflects its realistic rotation frequency, recovery behavior, and risk.
The portfolio does not need to force a separate stock into every volatility bucket merely for symmetry.
The bucket should describe the stock’s observed behavior. The stock should not be forced to behave according to the bucket.
ICT Bilang Core Anchor at Special Engine
ICT is the largest and most active engine of the emerging portfolio.
Its intended contribution comes mainly from:
- capital appreciation;
- stronger price movement;
- selective rotation;
- and Micro Harvesting opportunities during expansion and recovery phases.
The 500-share position is already substantial.
Its larger allocation is justified by the role assigned to it—not by an assumption that ICT is immune to loss.
ICT remains subject to:
- concentration limits;
- valuation;
- technical gates;
- VaR;
- and the shared portfolio dry-powder constraint.
As the Core Anchor and Special Engine, ICT may receive priority when a strong technical and valuation opportunity appears.
But priority is not ownership of all available liquidity.
TEL Bilang Low Volatility Dividend Harvester
TEL performs a different portfolio function.
Its principal harvest source is not frequent rotation.
It is recurring cash dividends.
Our normalized sustainable dividend estimate is approximately:
₱95.29 per share annually
For the existing 200 shares, this represents potential annual gross dividend capacity of approximately:
₱19,058
This harvest does not require selling the underlying shares.
That gives TEL a distinct purpose beside ICT.
ICT seeks to harvest through price movement. TEL seeks to harvest through ownership.
The two stocks are not supposed to produce the same kind of return.
They are also not required to receive equal capital.
URC at WLCON Bilang Allocation-Repair Positions
URC and WLCON are not waiting for funding from the ₱150,000 dry powder.
They are already funded positions.
Their stock studies will therefore have a different purpose.
The question will not primarily be:
Dapat ba tayong bumili?
The more relevant questions are:
- Does the stock still qualify for its intended volatility bucket?
- Is the current portfolio weight appropriate?
- How many shares should remain as the anchor?
- How many shares may be used for rotation?
- At what valuation or technical strength can excess exposure be released?
- Can an exit on strength improve the portfolio without forcing a loss-driven decision?
URC and WLCON may eventually become sources of recycled capital.
A partial exit on strength could:
- repair their portfolio weights;
- reduce concentration;
- restore dry powder;
- and finance later opportunities without requiring new outside capital.
This creates an important distinction.
ICT and TEL may consume dry powder through qualified additions. URC and WLCON may replenish dry powder through allocation repair and exits on strength.
That is the beginning of a governed capital-recycling system.
Ano ang Sinasabi ng TEL Fundamental Analysis?
The Fundamental Analysis concluded that TEL remains qualified as a Low Volatility Dividend Harvester.
The supporting strengths include:
- resilient recurring service revenues;
- stable EBITDA;
- durable telco core income;
- strong operating cash generation;
- and declining capital expenditures from the peak investment cycle.
These conditions support the regular dividend thesis.
But the analysis also identified TEL’s main structural weakness:
High leverage
The dividend must compete with:
- capex;
- interest expense;
- debt servicing;
- liquidity requirements;
- and other capital needs.
Therefore, TEL fundamentally deserves a place in the portfolio—but not unlimited capital.
Ano ang Sinasabi ng Technical Analysis?
As of July 27, 2026 at 12:00 PM, TEL received a TMA Gate Score of:
6 — Technical Test Probe
The positive conditions were:
- price above a rising SMA-50;
- MACD above signal and zero;
- and RSI remaining above neutral.
The incomplete conditions were:
- price still testing the EMA-200 ribbon;
- and volume remaining below average.
The chart was constructive, but not fully confirmed.
For a stock with no existing position, a probe may establish initial participation.
But we already hold 200 TEL shares.
We already participate in a possible recovery.
Therefore:
Technical permission does not create urgency.
Ano ang Sinasabi ng Valuation?
The sensitivity-tested TEL valuation produced the following working references:
Estimated Gross Fair Value: ₱1,240 per share
Estimated Net Realizable Fair Value: ₱1,235 per share
5% Margin of Safety Price: ₱1,178 per share
Our existing average net cost is:
₱1,277.4743 per share
The estimated gross break-even selling price after costs is:
Approximately ₱1,282.54 per share
At the July 27 reference price near ₱1,230, TEL was close to estimated fair value.
It was not yet deeply discounted.
A purchase around that area could qualify as a technical test—but not as a strong Margin of Safety purchase.
The more compelling valuation reference begins near ₱1,178.
Ano ang Sinasabi ng Risk Management?
The TEL risk study found:
- 95% one-day Historical VaR of approximately 2.00%;
- 95% Expected Shortfall of approximately 3.39%;
- 99% Historical VaR of approximately 4.29%;
- 99% Expected Shortfall of approximately 4.75%;
- and an observed worst one-day decline of approximately 5.16%.
At a ₱1,230 reference price:
95% VaR Price: approximately ₱1,205
This falls inside TEL Layer 4.
95% Expected Shortfall Price: approximately ₱1,188
This falls inside TEL Layer 5.
99% VaR Price: approximately ₱1,177
This falls below Layer 5 and almost exactly at the ₱1,178 Margin of Safety price.
Observed Worst-Day Stress Price: approximately ₱1,167
This is below the entire ladder and near the rising SMA-50 reference from the technical study.
The key conclusion was:
The SDA ladder tells us where the price has landed. VaR tells us how quickly it can get there.
One severe session may cross several narrow TEL refill zones.
Therefore, TEL layers cannot be treated as simultaneous automatic orders.
Ang Tunay na Constraint: ₱150,000 Shared Dry Powder
TEL has a stock-level capital ceiling of ₱330,000.
Its current 200-share position has used approximately ₱255,495 of that ceiling.
This leaves approximately ₱74,505 of unused stock-level capacity.
But that amount is not a separate TEL cash account.
The actual portfolio has only one fresh-deployment reserve:
₱150,000 Shared Portfolio Dry Powder
This reserve governs:
- additions to ICT;
- additions to TEL;
- any future new stock;
- and all other fresh deployment.
The ₱150,000 does not belong individually to ICT or TEL.
It belongs to the portfolio.
This distinction corrects a common stock-by-stock allocation error.
A stock may have unused capacity within its ceiling but still be unable to receive more capital if the shared portfolio reserve is insufficient.
Maaari Bang Sabay Tamaan ng VaR ang ICT at TEL?
The 500-share ICT position has a previously computed one-day 99% VaR of approximately:
₱27,601.35
The 200-share TEL position has a one-day 99% Historical VaR of approximately:
₱10,558
For a conservative same-day stress test, we add the two amounts directly:
Combined One-Day VaR: approximately ₱38,159.35
Relative to the ₱150,000 dry powder, the combined VaR represents approximately:
25.44% of the reserve
The dry-powder coverage ratio is approximately:
3.93 times the combined VaR
On a one-day modeled-risk basis, the answer is yes:
The portfolio can withstand simultaneous ICT and TEL VaR events.
But dry powder does not literally reimburse an unrealized loss.
Its role is to preserve liquidity, prevent forced action, and allow selective response after a market shock.
Maaari Bang Magdagdag ng 30 ICT at 40 TEL Shares?
A simultaneous VaR event may create two apparent opportunities.
ICT’s estimated VaR price is approximately:
₱918.05 per share
TEL’s estimated 99% VaR price is approximately:
₱1,177.23 per share
At these reference prices, 30 additional ICT shares would require approximately:
₱27,622.75 including estimated purchase costs
Forty additional TEL shares would require approximately:
₱47,228.11 including estimated purchase costs
Combined same-day deployment:
Approximately ₱74,850.86
Dry powder remaining:
Approximately ₱75,149.14
The answer is again yes.
The portfolio can mathematically fund:
- 30 additional ICT shares;
- and 40 additional TEL shares
on the same day that both 99% VaR levels are reached.
But the decision would consume almost exactly half of the ₱150,000 portfolio reserve.
The remaining ₱75,149 should initially be treated as protected liquidity—not as automatic capacity for another immediate transaction.
Ang Bagong Position Pagkatapos ng VaR Additions
If both conditional additions were executed, the positions would become:
ICT: 530 shares
TEL: 240 shares
The 40-share TEL addition would occur near:
- the 99% VaR price;
- the ₱1,178 Margin of Safety level;
- and just below the current Layer 5 floor.
This is a strong numerical convergence.
But a good price convergence is not enough.
A 99% VaR event may be caused by:
- ordinary market stress;
- company-specific news;
- deterioration in the technical structure;
- or information that changes fair value.
Therefore, the 40-share TEL addition remains conditional on reassessment.
The architecture creates permission and capacity.
It does not create an automatic order.
Ang Papel ng TEL Capital Ceiling
The TEL capital block remains:
₱330,000
This should be treated as a working ceiling—not as a target that must be filled.
The existing 200 shares already perform the primary TEL function:
- provide dividend exposure;
- generate recurring cash;
- and participate in possible price recovery.
A 40-share addition near the VaR and MOS convergence may be defensible.
But there is no requirement to complete every theoretical TEL layer simply because stock-level capacity remains.
The distinction is crucial:
A target creates pressure to deploy. A ceiling prevents excessive deployment.
Bakit Hindi Kailangang Ubusing Lahat ng Layers?
The SDA Refill Ladder is a price-location architecture.
It does not guarantee that every layer must receive shares.
TEL’s own risk study shows that one severe day can pass through several adjacent layers.
If standing orders are placed in every zone, a single event may fill multiple orders before the operator can determine why the price is falling.
That would convert a governance tool into an automatic averaging machine.
MH 2.0 rejects that interpretation.
The rule remains:
Layers provide the map—not the trigger.
Each actual refill requires:
- renewed fundamental validity;
- updated valuation;
- a fresh TMA Gate Score;
- confirmation of available shared dry powder;
- and an assessment of total portfolio risk after the transaction.
Ang Capital-Recycling Role ng URC at WLCON
The contemplated ICT and TEL additions would reduce dry powder from ₱150,000 to approximately ₱75,149.
That does not mean the portfolio becomes permanently locked.
URC and WLCON may later restore liquidity through exits on strength.
Their stock studies should identify:
- proper valuation;
- technical resistance;
- harvest zones;
- correct anchor size;
- rotation capacity;
- and any excess shares that may be released without damaging their remaining portfolio role.
URC’s 2,000 shares currently represent approximately 10% of the portfolio.
WLCON’s 30,000 shares represent approximately 14%.
These are meaningful allocations.
Their studies may conclude that:
- the current weight is appropriate;
- some shares should remain as anchor holdings;
- some shares may rotate;
- or excess exposure should be reduced during a favorable recovery.
The desired mechanism is:
Exit on strength to optimize allocation—not exit from discomfort merely to make the portfolio look cleaner.
Cash released from URC or WLCON may:
- replenish the ₱150,000 dry-powder target;
- reduce portfolio concentration;
- fund later qualified opportunities;
- or remain as protected liquidity.
Ang Emerging MH 2.0 Portfolio Architecture
The developing architecture may now be described as follows.
ICT — Core Anchor and Special Engine
ICT remains the dominant active engine for:
- price growth;
- capital appreciation;
- and selective rotation.
Current position:
500 shares, with conditional capacity to reach 530 shares
TEL — Low Volatility Dividend Harvester
TEL remains the dividend engine for:
- recurring cash income;
- limited rotation;
- and long-term price repair.
Current position:
200 shares, with conditional capacity to reach 240 shares
URC — Medium Volatility Harvester
URC remains an existing MH 1.0 carryover subject to:
- role confirmation;
- allocation optimization;
- and possible exit on strength.
WLCON — High or Medium Volatility Harvester
WLCON remains subject to classification review.
Its actual behavior—not the desire to complete a neat volatility ladder—will decide whether it remains High Volatility or is reclassified as Medium Volatility.
Cash — Portfolio Risk and Optionality Reserve
Cash performs a genuine portfolio function.
The starting reserve is:
₱150,000
After the contemplated 30-share ICT and 40-share TEL VaR additions:
Approximately ₱75,149 remains
Cash is therefore not merely unused capital.
It is the portfolio’s:
- shock absorber;
- liquidity reserve;
- optionality fund;
- and protection against forced execution.
Ang Final Capital-Allocation Decision
Bringing together the TEL Stock Study and the wider portfolio context, the initial MH 2.0 capital-allocation decision is as follows.
Retain the current 200-share TEL anchor
The position already performs a meaningful dividend function.
There is no need to add merely to reduce average cost or fill the ₱330,000 stock ceiling.
Keep ICT as the dominant portfolio engine
ICT remains the larger Core Anchor and Special Engine.
Its greater allocation is justified by its active growth and rotation role.
Allow conditional VaR additions
If both ICT and TEL reach their modeled VaR areas and their respective theses remain intact, the portfolio has sufficient dry powder to consider:
30 additional ICT shares
and
40 additional TEL shares
Estimated combined deployment:
₱74,850.86
Estimated remaining dry powder:
₱75,149.14
Treat the remaining ₱75,149 as protected liquidity
The balance should not immediately be redeployed simply because it remains available.
The enlarged ICT and TEL positions will carry higher future peso VaR.
The portfolio may also face:
- multi-day declines;
- Expected Shortfall;
- valuation changes;
- or unforeseen liquidity needs.
Do not treat TEL’s unused ceiling as independently funded
TEL may have stock-level capacity remaining within the ₱330,000 ceiling.
But all actual additions must come from the shared portfolio reserve.
Use URC and WLCON strength for allocation repair
The upcoming stock studies should focus on:
- proper role;
- correct allocation;
- anchor and rotation shares;
- and the potential release of capital during strength.
Their eventual exits or partial harvests may replenish dry powder and further align the portfolio with MH 2.0 governance.
Ang MH 1.0 to MH 2.0 Transition Rule
The transition may be summarized this way:
Existing MH 1.0 positions shall not be discarded merely because they originated under an earlier framework.
Each carryover shall undergo a stock study covering fundamentals, technical condition, valuation, risk, and capital allocation.
Positions that remain suitable shall be assigned an explicit MH 2.0 portfolio role.
Positions that are oversized or misclassified shall be repaired through disciplined exits on strength whenever practical.
New deployment shall remain constrained by the portfolio’s shared ₱150,000 dry-powder position.
Stock-level capacity shall create permission to allocate, but shall not override portfolio-level liquidity limits.
This is how legacy positions gradually become governed holdings.
Pangwakas na Kaisipan
Post 6 completes the TEL Stock Study, but its real subject is larger than TEL.
It documents how Micro Harvesting is changing.
MH 1.0 gave us the original positions, the early layer concepts, and the practical experience of harvesting through different market conditions.
MH 2.0 does not erase that history.
It subjects it to stronger governance.
The 500 ICT shares now have a defined role as the Core Anchor and Special Engine.
The 200 TEL shares now have a defined role as the Low Volatility Dividend Harvester.
URC is being examined as a Medium Volatility Harvesting Stock.
WLCON will be tested to determine whether it truly belongs in the High Volatility bucket or should be reclassified.
The ₱150,000 dry powder now has a portfolio-level purpose.
It is no longer mentally divided into separate, uncoordinated stock reserves.
It must support the whole Micro Harvesting Stocks Portfolio Pillar.
Our simultaneous-VaR stress test shows that the reserve can handle the modeled one-day risk of ICT and TEL.
It can also fund a conditional addition of 30 ICT shares and 40 TEL shares, leaving approximately ₱75,149 in liquidity.
But the ability to fund an order is not the same as the obligation to execute it.
The final hierarchy remains:
- fundamentals establish whether the business deserves capital;
- valuation identifies the economic price;
- technical analysis determines whether execution is permitted;
- risk management shows what the position can do against us;
- and portfolio allocation decides whether the next peso should be deployed at all.
This is the gradual transition from MH 1.0 to MH 2.0:
Not a forced replacement of the old portfolio, but a disciplined conversion of carryover positions into holdings with clear roles, proper limits, and documented decision rules.
The portfolio does not become MH 2.0-compliant in one trade.
It becomes compliant one stock study, one allocation decision, and one governed repair at a time.
The PSE has confirmed that its Shariah screening program is currently paused, with no new lists to be released until their internal review is completed. Although news outlets reported quarterly updates up to mid-2025, these later lists are no longer accessible on the PSE website.
For now, the PSE’s Shariah-Compliant Securities page and all past lists have been removed from the public website. The December 24, 2024 list is the last official version in Micro Stock Trader’s possession, downloaded before the page was taken down, although other investors may still hold later copies such as the reported July 4, 2025 release.
All halal-focused strategies under Micro Stock Trader will use a conservative, self-screened approach until official guidance resumes, in shā’ Allāh.
This post is for educational and documentation purposes only. It is not investment advice. Perform your own due diligence and consult qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions. All strategies, frameworks, and examples described here reflect the personal methodologies of Micro Stock Trader and are not guarantees of future performance.
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