Panimula: Adding Conviction at the Edge of Risk
Mga kabayan, noong August 21 review, malinaw na ang bilin: bantayan ang ₱7.00 support. Ngayong August 29, sumubok muli ang merkado sa linya ng buhangin — ₱7.05 close. Dahil nasa mismong gilid ng hard stop, sinunod natin ang plano at nagdagdag ng 800 shares @ ₱7.05 bilang dagdag na conviction buy.
Pero hindi basta dagdag lang ito — may kasamang pagbabago sa ating Layered Accumulation Plan. Sa halip na masyadong maraming kapital ang nakaabang sa mas mataas na levels, nilakihan natin ang Layer 2 allocation. Ang rason: mas makitid ang risk kapag malapit sa ₱7.00, kaya mas maganda mag-frontload dito kaysa magpasan ng risk sa taas.
Nilalaman
1️⃣ Weekly Chart Snapshot
2️⃣ Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Evaluation
3️⃣ Hatol ng Batangueñong Trader
4️⃣ Next Steps (Tactical Plan)
5️⃣ Updated Layered Accumulation Plan
6️⃣ Updated Phased Exit Plan
7️⃣ Final Trade Recommendation
8️⃣ Closing Reflection
1️⃣ Weekly Chart Snapshot
TRADE DETAILS
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Date: August 29, 2025
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Stock: Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE)
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Exchange: PSE
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Timeframes: Weekly (primary), Daily (supporting)
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Closing Price: ₱7.05
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High: ₱7.56
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Low: ₱7.02
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20-MA: ₱7.38
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50-MA: ₱8.12
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200-MA: ₱10.68
📊 Observations:
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Price barely held ₱7.00 support.
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Still below 8MA (₱7.44) and 20MA (₱7.38).
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Volume (~14.5M) not yet showing strong institutional support.
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Danger: If ₱7.00 breaks, likely flush down to ₱6.70–₱6.80.
2️⃣ Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Evaluation
Step 1: Market State & Trend Context
Bottoming stage, below 200MA = long-term bearish bias.
➡ Verdict: Cautious hold / test-buy zone
✅ Score: 7/10
Step 2: Price Position & Long-Term Value Zones
At ₱7.05, price is in defensive value zone right on support.
➡ Verdict: Accumulate selectively
✅ Score: 7/10
Step 3: Power Bars, Price Behavior & Volume Shift
Red candle, weak volume follow-through.
➡ Verdict: Observe
✅ Score: 5/10
Step 4: Entry Confirmation (Tech + Fundamentals)
Support respected but no breakout trigger.
➡ Verdict: WAIT for signal
✅ Score: 6/10
Step 5: Stop-Loss Policy
₱6.95–₱7.00 = hard stop.
➡ Verdict: Strict
✅ Score: 9/10
Step 6: Color Change Signals for Trend Validation
No strong green yet.
➡ Verdict: None
✅ Score: 5/10
Step 7: Profit-Taking via Growth Cycles
Still base building.
➡ Verdict: Hold
✅ Score: 6/10
Step 8: Re-Entry Plans After Dips
Frontloaded Layer 2; next adds only if ₱7.50 retest holds.
➡ Verdict: Stick to adjusted plan
✅ Score: 8/10
Step 9: Position Size Planning
Exposure now ₱17,396 (11.5% of capital). Still safe.
➡ Verdict: Controlled
✅ Score: 9/10
Step 10: Ethical & Counter-Trend Considerations
Halal-qualified, consumer staple.
➡ Verdict: Qualified
✅ Score: 9/10
3️⃣ Hatol ng Batangueñong Trader
Mga kabayan, parang bangka na halos sumasayad sa buhangin si MONDE — pero dito rin tayo sumakay ng dagdag, dahil kung lilipad ulit, dito pinakamura at pinakamaliit ang panganib. Kung lumubog sa ilalim ng ₱7.00, tapos ang biyahe. Pero kung kumapit, magandang simula ng pag-ahon.
4️⃣ Next Steps (Tactical Plan)
📌 Entry Zones
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₱7.05–₱7.25 (activated, Layer 2 frontloaded buy executed)
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₱7.45–₱7.55 (pending, mid-range retest)
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₱8.20–₱8.40 (pending, breakout add)
📌 Stop-Loss
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₱6.95–₱7.00 hard stop, exit lahat kapag nabutas.
📌 Target Prices
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₱8.30–₱8.50 early trim (25%)
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₱9.10–₱9.40 partial exit (30%)
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₱10.20–₱10.50 major exit (25%)
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Hold 20% core above ₱11.00
📌 Position Strategy
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Exposure: ₱17,396 (~11.5%)
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No more adds until ₱7.50 retest confirmation.
5️⃣ Updated Layered Accumulation Plan (₱150,000 Allocation | Faster Deployment – Adjusted)
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Layer 1: ₱7.80 | 400 shares (₱3,120) → Executed
Trade Simulation #5: Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE) Trade Review: Weekly Chart as of July 16, 2025 – Layer 1 | 400 hares | ₱7.80 | ₱3,120
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Layer 2: ₱7.10–₱7.25 | 2,000 shares (₱14,200) → Frontloaded (executed 800 shares @ ₱7.05)
Trade Simulation #18: Executed 800 shares @ ₱7.05 (This post) | ₱5,640
Trade Simulation #11: Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE) Trade Simulation Evaluation: Weekly Chart – August 20, 2025 (P.M. Session) | 1,200 shares | ₱7.18 | ₱8,616
- Layer 3: ₱7.45–₱7.55 | 1,200 shares (₱9,000) → Pending
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Layer 4: ₱8.20–₱8.40 | 1,500 shares (₱12,600) → Pending
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Layer 5: ₱8.80–₱9.00 | 1,200 shares (₱10,800) → Reduced to offset Layer 2
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Layer 6: ₱6.95–₱7.05 | 2,000 shares (₱14,000) → Pending
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Layer 7: ₱6.70–₱6.90 | 2,500 shares (₱17,250) → Optional deep buffer
✅ Total Executed = ₱17,396 (~11.5%)
💸 Remaining Buffer = ₱132,604 (~88.5%)
6️⃣ Updated Phased Exit Plan (Adjusted)
🎯 Exit 1: ₱8.30–₱8.50 → Sell 2,500 shares (25%)
🎯 Exit 2: ₱9.10–₱9.40 → Sell 3,000 shares (30%)
🎯 Exit 3: ₱10.20–₱10.50 → Sell 2,500 shares (25%)
🎯 Exit 4 / Core Hold: Above ₱11.00–₱11.20 → Retain 2,000 shares (20%)
🔴 Hard Stop: ₱6.95–₱7.00 breakdown with volume = exit lahat.
7️⃣ Final Trade Recommendation
Final Trade Recommendation: DEFENSIVE BUY / HOLD
✅ Recommendation: Layer 2 frontloaded with 800 shares @ ₱7.05, maintain unless ₱7.50 retest confirms.
✅ Risk Management: Strict stop below ₱7.00.
✅ Profit Strategy: Staged exits at ₱8.30–₱10.50, retain 20% above ₱11.00.
✅ Position Size Strategy: Keep exposure moderate (~11.5%), only add with confirmation.
8️⃣ Closing Reflection
Ang disiplina ay hindi lang paghawak, kundi marunong ding magdagdag kung saan pinakamaliit ang panganib. Sa MONDE, pinili nating dagdagan malapit sa support — hindi dahil sigurado, kundi dahil dito pinakamaliit ang risk at pinakamalapit ang stop. Sa trading, minsan ang tapang ay nakatali sa tamang lugar, hindi sa laki ng taya.
📌 Trade Simulation Update #18 – Subok sa Puso Series
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Portfolio: Halal Core Growth Portfolio
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Allocation: ₱150,000
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Active Position: 2,400 shares @ ₱7.25 average = ₱17,396 (currently –2.7%)
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Hatol: ₱7.00 remains the decisive line. Conviction added at ₱7.05 with tighter risk management.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Paalala lang: Ang post na ito ay para sa informational purposes only at hindi dapat ituring na financial advice. Laging siguraduhing gumawa ng sarili mong research bago pumasok sa kahit anong trade o investment
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Isang tanong ang pumasok sa isip ko habang nakatingin sa chart—“Anong gagawin ko kung may mag-abot sa akin ng isang milyong piso, cash, at walang hinihinging kapalit?”
Walang kondisyon. Walang tanong. Walang habol.
Isang milyong pisong biglaang dumating.
Hindi galing sa sugal. Hindi hiram.
Malinis. Legal. Bigay.
Rizq—kung tutuusin.
Pero ang tanong ay hindi lang “anong bibilhin ko?”
O “saan ko i-invest?”
Kundi—“Kaya ko bang panindigan ang 10-Step Strategy ko, kung ganito kalaki ang hawak ko?”
Capital Allocation: ₱400,000
Objective: This portfolio seeks long-term growth from fundamentally strong, ethically aligned, and ideally Shariah-compliant businesses.
Hindi lang basta technical setup ang basehan—pinag-isipan din kung saan nanggagaling ang kita, at kung ito ba ay halal ang pinagmulan.
Objective: To generate passive income from a selection of halal-screened REITs and dividend-paying companies that pass ethical and Shariah filters.
Ito ang bahagi ng portfolio na tumatanggap ng biyaya habang natutulog ka, pero hindi mula sa haram.
Objective: To capture capital appreciation from undervalued or temporarily beaten-down companies showing signs of recovery—without crossing the ethical line.
Not every good trade is clean, and not every clean trade is good. Kaya dito sinusubok ang balance ng puso at diskarte.
Objective: To execute short- to mid-term tactical trades using ₱10,000 per board lot based on the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy, with real money and real-time conviction—under the mindset of a Board Lot Warrior.
Hindi ito simulation. Hindi ito paper trade. Ito ang totoong laban, gamit ang disiplina at dasal.
Objective: To maintain spiritual discipline and financial humility by leaving room—intentionally—for:
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- 🤲 Giving opportunities
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Hybrid 10-Step Strategy 5.0 – Long-Term Focus VariantOptimized for Accumulation, Patience, and Portfolio Growth
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