Exit si MREIT sa Jimmy Series dahil sa block-sale flush at breakdown sa ₱13.80, cut executed sa ₱13.46 para protektahan ang kapital.
Nilalaman
1️⃣ Weekly Chart Snapshot
2️⃣ Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Evaluation
3️⃣ Hatol ng Batangueñong Trader
4️⃣ Next Steps (Tactical Plan)
5️⃣ Updated Layered Accumulation Plan
6️⃣ Updated Phased Exit Plan
7️⃣ Final Trade Recommendation
8️⃣ Closing Reflection
1️⃣ Chart Snapshots
Stock: MREIT, Inc. (MREIT)
Exchange: PSE
Timeframe: Weekly
Closing Price: ₱13.60
High-Low Range: ₱14.60 – ₱13.54
MAs: MA8 ₱14.48 | MA20 ₱14.10 | MA50 ₱13.80 | MA200 ₱14.41
Volume: 24.95M (vs. 20-MA ~4.41M) – ⚠️ 5x spike
Interpretation: Super red flush candle. Nabasag ang MA8 at MA200, nakasandal sa MA20–MA50 zone, pero confirmed breakdown dahil price + volume sabay.
2️⃣ Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Evaluation
Using the refined evaluation, MREIT scored 16/100 (Bearish – Invalidated Trade). The previously neutral-bullish bias is no longer valid after the breakdown.1. Market State & Trend Context – Breakdown mode, bearish. Score: 1/10
2. Price Position & Long-Term Value Zones – Below key support, under MAs. Score: 1/10
3. Power Bars, Price Behavior & Volume – Heavy red candle + huge volume flush. Score: 1/10
4. Entry Confirmation (Fundamental/Technical) – Invalidated, thesis broken. Score: 0/10
5. Stop-Loss Policy (Thesis Violation) – Cut triggered at ₱13.80 breakdown. Score: 2/10
6. Color Change Signals – Red dominance confirmed. Score: 1/10
7. Profit-Taking (Valuation/Growth Cycles) – No profit preserved, forced exit. Score: 0/10
8. Re-Entry Plans After Dips – Only valid above ₱14.00 with volume reclaim. Score: 2/10
9. Position Size Planning – Controlled size (100 shares), minimized damage. Score: 5/10
10. Ethical/Counter-Trend Considerations – REIT, ethical, but mistimed. Score: 3/10
➡️ Total Score – MREIT: 16/100 (Bearish – Invalidated Trade)
3️⃣ Hatol ng Batangueñong Trader
Mga kasama, hindi ito simpleng wick flush — ito ay block sale flush. Dahil sa ₱2.24B block sale ng Megaworld sa MREIT (168.63M shares @ ₱13.28, 4.5% discount), bumigay ang presyo sa ₱13.80 support kasabay ng super strong volume. Ang exit sa ₱13.46 ay hindi pagkakamali, kundi pagsunod sa disiplina. Wag tayong mahulog sa ilusyon na “fundamentals strong” kaya immune sa breakdown. Sa trading, price + volume ang final judge.
4️⃣ Next Steps (Tactical Plan | LIVE)
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Immediate Watch Zone: ₱13.20–₱13.40 for potential stabilization.
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Validation: Look for green recovery candle with moderate volume next 1–2 weeks.
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Tactical Stance: No chasing; wait for proper base or reversal signals.
5️⃣ Updated Layered Accumulation Plan
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Layer 1 @ ₱13.92 → ✅ executed pero exited @ ₱13.46.
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Reset entry plan: ₱13.20–₱13.40, but only with stabilization + green confirmation.
6️⃣ Updated Phased Exit Plan
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Exit Plan triggered at ₱13.80 breakdown, position closed.
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No active exits left.
7️⃣ Final Trade Recommendation
Final Trade Recommendation: SELL (Exit Executed at ₱13.46)
✅ Recommendation: Exit breakdown confirmed by heavy block-sale flush volume.
✅ Risk Management: Preserved capital, avoided deeper drawdown.
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: N/A (cut loss trade, no profits).
✅ Position Size Strategy: Prepare fresh position sizing for re-entry when conditions reset.
8️⃣ Closing Reflection
Megaworld’s block sale isn’t a sign of weakness — it’s a normal REIT playbook move para palakihin ang float at ihanda si MREIT sa susunod na asset infusion. Fundamentals remain intact: float now 40%, GLA expansion target pulled forward to 2027, capital stock increase to ₱8B. Pero kahit gaano kaganda ang kwento, kung price + volume sabay na bumasag sa suporta, kailangan mag-cut. Capital preserved means may bala pa tayo sa susunod na laban.
9️⃣ Tactical Alert
Defensive stance: Wag habol, bantayan ₱13.20–₱13.40. Re-entry only if stabilization + recovery signal shows.
🔟 LIVE TRADE LOG – Jimmy Series (as of Sept 19, 2025)
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Trade #5 – MREIT (Sept 17, 2025): 100 shares @ ₱13.92 → ❌ Exited Sept 19 @ ₱13.46.
Status: Closed | Loss: ~₱46.00 | Capital preserved for redeployment. Result: -₱55.44 net realized loss (-1.1% ng seed capital).
Our review of the Megaworld sells P2.24-B block of MREIT at 4.5% discount to market | Philstar.com September 19, 2025 article by Merkado Barkada:
This Merkado Barkada piece is a concise but insightful take on Megaworld’s (MEG) ₱2.24B block sale of MREIT shares. It explains the mechanics well: 168.63 million shares were sold at ₱13.28 each, representing a 4.5% discount to the prior close, with settlement scheduled for September 19, 2025. Importantly, the sale boosts MREIT’s public float to 40%, comfortably above the 33% minimum threshold required for REITs.
The article also ties the move to MREIT’s aggressive expansion plan—hitting 1 million sqm of GLA by 2027, three years ahead of target. Supporting this, MREIT plans to increase its authorized capital stock from ₱5B to ₱8B and issue up to 1.36B new shares for future capital raising and property-for-share swaps.
What’s valuable in the commentary is the contextual framing: MB points out that block sales are now the preferred mechanism for REIT sponsors to prep for asset infusions. While such sales once carried negative sentiment (seen as dilution or desperation), the market has come to accept them as part of the REIT growth cycle. The bottom line is clear—this isn’t a red flag but a standard playbook move, suggesting MEG is positioning MREIT for its next wave of expansion.
📌 Jimmy Series implication:
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Sa tactical side (₱5,000 Seed Portfolio), hindi natin babaguhin agad ang Layered Accumulation Plan or Phased Exit Plan unless may big move sa charts.
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Basically: short-term risk of pressure, long-term reinforcement of growth story.
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Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Paalala lang: Ang post na ito ay para sa informational purposes only at hindi dapat ituring na financial advice. Laging siguraduhing gumawa ng sarili mong research bago pumasok sa kahit anong trade o investment
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