Showing posts with label PSE Long-Term Strategy. Show all posts

Saturday, July 12, 2025

Universal Robina Corporation (URC) Stock Price Review: Daily Chart as of July 11, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Micro Stock Trader Blog | Ang inyong Batangueñong retail stock trader

URC stock daily chart breakout above ₱97 as of July 11, 2025

URC Daily Chart as of July 11, 2025

Nilalaman:

Panimula
Stock Price Review Gamit and Hybrid 10-Step Strategy
Hatol sa Stock: Bibili ba Dadaan Lang?
Next Move: Plano Pag Tumama o Sumablay
Layered Accumulation Plan
Phased Exit Plan

📌 Paunang Paliwanag sa Ating Review Series

Magandang araw po sa inyo, mga kababayan! Dito po sa ating simpleng review series, pangunahing layunin nating makatulong sa mga small retail traders—lalo na po yung mga gustong magsimula sa ethical at Shariah-compliant investing.

Ang URC (Universal Robina Corporation) ay kasama sa listahan ng Shariah-compliant stocks sa Philippine Stock Exchange, kaya ito po ay maaaring isaalang-alang ng mga ethical investors.

Tandaan pa rin natin:

👉 Ang review na ito ay para sa educational at analytical purposes lamang.
👉 Hindi ito automatic na buy recommendation.
👉 Kayo pa rin ang may final na desisyon batay sa inyong risk tolerance at portfolio strategy.

I. Panimula

TRADE DETAILS
Date: July 11, 2025
Stock: Universal Robina Corporation (URC)
Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange
Timeframes: Daily Chart
Closing Price: ₱97.00
High: ₱97.15
Low: ₱94.00
20-MA (Short-Term Trend): ₱89.60
200-MA (Long-Term Trend): ₱82.26

Ang review na ito ay isinagawa gamit ang Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 5.0 – Long-Term Focus Variant, para matukoy kung karapat-dapat bang pasukin ang stock na ito ngayon o maghintay pa.

II. Stock Price Review Gamit ang Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

✅ Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

URC is in a clear uptrend. Nasa taas ng 20-day at 200-day MA ang presyo, at tuluy-tuloy ang galaw paakyat.
➡ Verdict: BUY Bias – Confirmed Trend

✅ Step 2: Price Position & Long-Term Value Zones

Yung current price (₱97) ay malayo na sa 20-MA at 200-MA, kaya medyo mataas na ang lipad—baka overbought temporarily.
➡ Verdict: WAIT for pullback – Wag habulin, abang muna sa ilalim

✅ Step 3: Power Bars, Price Behavior & Volume Shift

May mga green power bars na sumabog pataas with volume spike—malinis ang breakout above ₱94.
➡ Verdict: HOLD kung may hawak na, BUY on pullback sa breakout base

✅ Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Fundamentals & Technical Triggers

Yung breakout above ₱94 ay solid na confirmation. Volume-backed move, at walang malaking resistance hanggang ₱100.
➡ Verdict: BUY kung bumalik sa ₱93–₱95 area

✅ Step 5: Stop-Loss Policy Based on Thesis Violation

Pwede maglagay ng stop-loss below ₱88.50, just under the 20-day MA, para protektado ang capital.
➡ Verdict: Set hard stop at ₱88.50

✅ Step 6: Color Change Signals for Trend Validation

Wala pa tayong nakikitang red signal o bearish reversal sa daily chart. Trend paakyat.
➡ Verdict: HOLD or BUY pa rin

✅ Step 7: Profit-Taking via Valuation and Growth Cycles

Next resistances ay ₱100 at ₱105. Dito magandang magbawas ng konti para mag-lock ng gains.
➡ Verdict: SELL partial near ₱100–₱105

✅ Step 8: Re-Entry Plans After Market Dips

Kung mag-pullback sa ₱93–₱95 area with strong volume support, pasok ulit.
➡ Verdict: BUY on healthy dip sa breakout zone

✅ Step 9: Position Size Planning for Long-Term Portfolios

Core entry: 50% ng capital kung mag-pullback. Tactical add: 10–20% kung mag-breakout ulit above ₱97.
➡ Verdict: Layered buying strategy ang best approach

✅ Step 10: Ethical and Counter-Trend Opportunity Considerations

Walang counter-trend setup needed. URC is trending well and is Shariah-compliant.
➡ Verdict: Not Applicable – Focus sa trend-following strategy

III. Hatol sa Stock: Bibili ba o Dadaan Lang?

Final Stock Recommendation: BUY on Pullback

✅ Recommendation: Buy near ₱93–₱95 kung may healthy dip.
✅ Risk Management: Set stop-loss below ₱88.50.
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Sell partial sa ₱100, ₱105, then trail the rest.
✅ Position Size Strategy: Start moderate at pullback, then add tactically kung tuloy ang momentum.

IV. Next Move: Plano Pag Tumama o Sumablay

🔹 Kung Tumama:

Partial sell sa ₱100
Trail ang natira above ₱105
Re-entry kung magkaroon ng bagong breakout move

🔹 Kung Sumablay:

Cut loss below ₱88.50
Monitor for new base or reversal sa ₱85–₱87 zone
Wag mag-average down nang walang confirmation

🚨 Final Thought: Hindi dapat habulin ang mataas na presyo. Ang tunay na diskarte ay yung marunong maghintay sa pullback. Kung Shariah investing ang gusto mo, URC is a solid candidate—pero timing pa rin ang susi.

V. Layered Accumulation Plan (Capital: ₱10,000 | 1 board lot = 10 shares)

Capital: ₱10,000 | 1 Board Lot = 10 Shares

🔸 Core Entry – 50% Capital (₱5,000)

Buy 10 shares @ ₱94 = ₱940
Buy 10 shares @ ₱92 = ₱920
Total Shares: 20
Cost: ₱1,860
🟩 Remarks: Entry sa loob ng pullback zone. Solid support level.

🔸 Tactical Entry – 20% Capital (₱2,000)

Buy 10 shares @ ₱96 = ₱960
Buy 10 shares @ ₱97 = ₱970
Total Shares: 20
Cost: ₱1,930
🟦 Remarks: Pang-momentum entry kapag nag-breakout above ₱97

🔸 Total Shares Accumulated: 40 shares
🔸 Total Capital Deployed: ₱3,790
🔸 Remaining Cash Reserve: ₱6,210
🟨 Purpose ng Cash Reserve:

For future add-ons kung may breakout retest or deeper pullback
Pang contingency sa ibang trades or opportunity setups

📌 Note: Pwede pa magdagdag ng isa pang board lot kung bumalik sa ₱90 or may strong bullish reversal pattern sa lower zone.

VI. Phased Exit Plan (Based on ₱10,000 Capital)

For 40 Shares Total Accumulated

🔹 First Target Exit – 25% of position

Sell 10 shares @ ₱100
Profit: (₱100 - avg entry price) × 10
🟢 Objective: Secure quick gains near psychological resistance

🔹 Second Target Exit – 25% of position

Sell 10 shares @ ₱105
🟢 Objective: Capture mid-term momentum if breakout continues

🔹 Third Target Exit – 25% of position

Sell 10 shares @ ₱110
🟢 Objective: Ride extension move toward next resistance zone

🔹 Final Exit – 25% of position (Trailing Stop)

Sell remaining 10 shares using trailing stop-loss
Suggested trailing stop: ₱3–₱4 below recent high
🟢 Objective: Maximize gains if trend sustains, exit only if reversal shows

📌 Reminder:

Kung hindi umabot ang price sa mga targets, wag pilitin.
Mas importante pa rin ang risk management—cut below ₱88.50 kung nasira ang structure.
Ang phased exit ay para mabawasan ang stress sa decision-making habang nasa actual trade.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Paalala lang: Ang post na ito ay para sa informational purposes only at hindi dapat ituring na financial advice. Laging siguraduhing gumawa ng sarili mong research bago pumasok sa kahit anong trade o investment.

Monday, June 9, 2025

Stock Price Review: AbaCore Capital Holdings, Inc. (ABA) Weekly Chart as of June 9, 2025 – Long-Term Accumulation Case Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

From breakout setup to long-term opportunity: Why ABA is entering the early stages of a potential wealth-building cycle for patient investors.

In our earlier post dated June 4, 2025, we examined AbaCore Capital Holdings, Inc. (ABA) as a breakout candidate from a short-term tactical trade perspective, identifying a valid range entry at ₱0.75–₱0.79 based on a confluence of signals from the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Since then, price action has continued to align with our expected breakout path—providing us the opportunity to shift gears and now evaluate ABA from a long-term investment viewpoint.

This follow-up review focuses on the weekly timeframe as of June 9, 2025, in line with our enhanced Hybrid 10-Step Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant, which prioritizes accumulation, trend development, and position scaling rather than fast rotations or immediate exits.

TRADE DETAILS:
Date: June 9, 2025
Stock: AbaCore Capital Holdings, Inc. (ABA)
Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
Timeframe: Weekly
Closing Price: ₱0.77
High: ₱0.79
Low: ₱0.75
20-MA (Short-Term Trend): ₱0.51
200-MA (Long-Term Trend): ₱1.32

This updated review explores whether ABA now qualifies as a gradual accumulation candidate for long-term investors who prefer structured position-building over speculative swing entries.

Weekly stock chart of ABA with bullish breakout and moving average crossover

Weekly chart of ABA showing breakout and reversal base as of June 9, 2025

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

(Adapted for Long-Term Focus)

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context
The long-term trend remains bearish, with price well below the 200-week MA (₱1.32). However, short-term structure is now bullish, supported by a breakout above the 20-week MA (₱0.51) and sustained upward momentum over the past 5 weeks.
➡ Verdict: Long-term downtrend with short-term bullish structure. Early reversal.

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones
ABA is positively positioned above all short-term MAs (8, 20, and 50-week). The latest price action has moved outside the ideal 25%–45% sweet spot for trend-continuation pullbacks, suggesting a need to wait for dips or scale in slowly.
➡ Verdict: Hold for long-term, layer in during soft pullbacks.

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation
A clear green power candle emerged during the week of May 27, 2025, with volume expansion to 15.788M shares—the strongest in recent quarters. This is a valid breakout signal in the context of a long-term base.
➡ Verdict: Bullish; confirms early accumulation by institutions.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals
Price has broken above critical resistance at ₱0.60 and is approaching the next threshold of ₱0.80. Sustaining above ₱0.80 would validate a long-term trend reversal.
➡ Verdict: Accumulation near ₱0.75 is valid; full conviction entry at ₱0.80+

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management
For long-term positions, a strategic stop-loss may be placed below ₱0.62 (swing low) or ₱0.51 (weekly 20-MA). Position size should reflect the volatility and low float nature of the stock.
➡ Verdict: Position sizing and stop discipline critical below ₱0.62

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation
The weekly chart has fully transitioned from red to green bars, marking a sentiment reversal that aligns with our long-term entry thesis.
➡ Verdict: Valid trend reversal under development.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits
Profit zones should target long-term resistance levels:

First Tier: ₱0.90 (previous minor resistance)
Second Tier: ₱1.00
Final Tier: ₱1.20–₱1.30 near 200-week MA
➡ Verdict: Set tiered take-profit plan and trail gains beyond ₱0.90

Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones
Re-entries can be planned at:

₱0.67–₱0.70: Minor support at 50-MA
₱0.51–₱0.55: Stronger support at 20-MA for major pullback
➡ Verdict: Re-enter only on pullbacks with low-volume corrections.

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments
We recommend initiating with a 50% core position near ₱0.75–₱0.77, and adding remaining 50% only after a solid weekly close above ₱0.80.
➡ Verdict: Use layered core-tactical scaling strategy.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations
Not applicable in current conditions. ABA has exited the deep bear zone and is forming a base for long-term recovery.
➡ Verdict: No counter-trend trade needed. Focus on core buildup.

Final Stock Recommendation

Final Stock Recommendation: BUY for Long-Term Accumulation

✅ Recommendation: Begin phased accumulation at ₱0.75–₱0.77, based on volume confirmation and price leadership over short-term MAs.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss below ₱0.62 or ₱0.51 depending on investor tolerance.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Gradual exits near ₱0.90, ₱1.00, and ₱1.30.

✅ Position Size Strategy: Moderate-sized initial entry (50%) with add-on above ₱0.80 for conviction-based layering.

Next Steps

🔹 Short-term traders → Consider partial profit at ₱0.79–₱0.85 if quick bounce occurs.

🔹 Long-term investors → Begin core position and monitor for breakout confirmation above ₱0.80.

🔹 Existing holders → Hold positions and tighten stop to ₱0.64 if breakout stalls.

Layered Accumulation Plan for ABA (Php10,000 Capital)

As part of our long-term positioning for AbaCore Capital Holdings, Inc. (ABA), we are implementing a layered accumulation plan designed to optimize entry across pullback zones and breakout confirmations. With an initial capital of Php10,000.00, we have already deployed Php4,800.00 on June 3, 2025, buying 6,000 shares at ₱0.80 for our core position (48%).

Inside the Micro Stock Trader virtual office, the ambiance reflects focused strategy—highlighting the Layered Accumulation Plan for ABA alongside a visual of the Wealth-Building Cycle designed to guide long-term investors.

Assumptions:

🔹 Total Capital: Php10,000.00

🔹 Core Position (Executed): 6,000 shares @ ₱0.80 = Php4,800.00

🔹 Remaining Capital: Php5,200.00

Layer 2 – Tactical Pullback Entry

Buy 2,000 shares @ ₱0.70
Capital Allocation: Php1,400.00
Rationale: Add tactically on retracement near short-term MA support

Layer 3 – Deep Pullback Entry (Defensive Zone)

Buy 1,000 shares @ ₱0.65 (GTC order already placed)
Capital Allocation: Php650.00
Rationale: Capitalize on deeper retracement near breakout base

Layer 4 – Breakout Momentum Add-On

Buy 2,000 shares @ ₱0.85
Capital Allocation: Php1,700.00
Rationale: Add on confirmation of trend reversal if price breaks ₱0.80+ on volume

Contingency Reserve

Unallocated Buffer: Php1,450.00
Purpose: Reserved for averaging or emergency re-entry if price volatility increases

This plan maintains capital discipline, ensures low average cost, and allows us to scale into ABA's potential recovery while minimizing risk during volatility.

🚨 Final Thought: The breakout thesis from early June is playing out. With volume and moving average alignment on our side, ABA may be shifting into a new bullish cycle. Early accumulation could reward patient holders in the months ahead. 🚨

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

GAWLOO: Ang Lugawang May Sarap ng Southeast Asia — Gawa ng Batangueñong Galing Abroad

Kung taga-Rosario, Batangas ka at nag-crave ka ng lugaw na may level-up na twist—eto na ang sagot sa panalangin ng sikmura mo: GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience.

GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience facade

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GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience Dine-In

Ang may-ari, si Jay Ubana, ay isang Batangueñong cook na nagtrabaho sa Singapore at Dubai ng 12 taon. Sa dami ng napuntahan niyang bansa—Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore—natutunan niyang i-appreciate ang iba't ibang bersyon ng congee. “Paborito talaga ng mga Pinoy ang lugaw,” wika ni Jay, “Kahit anong oras, kahit anong pakiramdam—masarap maglugaw.”

⭐ Lasa't Alaala sa Bawat Higop

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GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience facade

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