TACTICAL ROTATION FUND | Trading Simulation Capital: ₱150,000 | Subok Series
Micro Stock Trader | Ethical and Halal-Conscious Investing in the PSE
Panimula: Pagkatapos ng Buwelo, Pasensya Muna?
Noong July 15, 2025, nakakita tayo ng breakout wick sa ₱0.56 kaya agad tayong nag-layer 1 entry sa ₱0.55. May kasamang volume spike, kaya’t nagmukhang simula ng pag-angat. Pero ngayong August 15, bumalik si ARA sa ₱0.49—isang test ng pasensya ng mga nakasampa na.
Ibig sabihin, hindi agad tinuloy ang breakout. Bumalik ulit sa consolidation zone sa ₱0.48–₱0.53. Ang tanong ngayon: hihintayin ba natin ulit ang susunod na buwelo, o cut na agad kung bibigay ang ₱0.48 support?
- Araneta Properties, Inc. (ARA) Trade Review: Weekly Chart as of July 15, 2025 – Layer 1
Tactical Rotation Fund (Board Lot Warrior Account) — Subok ng Puso Series #6
5 Paghahati ng Biglaang Rizq: May Layunin ang Bawat Piso — Subok ng Puso Series #2
₱1,000,000 Walang Kapalit: Subok ng Puso, Hindi Lang ng Strategy
Nilalaman
1️⃣ Weekly Chart Snapshot
2️⃣ Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Evaluation
3️⃣ Hatol ng Batangueñong Trader
4️⃣ Next Steps (Tactical Plan)
5️⃣ Updated Layered Accumulation Plan
6️⃣ Updated Phased Exit Plan
7️⃣ Final Trade Recommendation
8️⃣ Closing Reflection
1️⃣ Weekly Chart Snapshot
📅 Date: August 15, 2025
📈 Stock: Araneta Properties, Inc. (ARA)
📊 Exchange: PSE
🕒 Timeframes: Weekly (primary), Daily (supporting)
💰 Closing Price: ₱0.49
📌 High: ₱0.51
📌 Low: ₱0.485
📌 20-MA (Short-Term): ₱0.5318
📌 50-MA (Mid-Term): ₱0.5519
📌 200-MA (Long-Term): ₱0.9270
2️⃣ Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Evaluation
Step 1: Market State & Trend Context
Still below 200-MA = bearish pa rin. Price now testing base near ₱0.48 support.
➡ Verdict: WAIT
✅ Score: 6/10
Step 2: Price Position & Value Zones
Price below 20-MA and 50-MA = weak positioning. Pero nasa near-support zone.
➡ Verdict: WATCH NEAR ₱0.48–₱0.50
✅ Score: 7/10
Step 3: Power Bars, Price & Volume
No new power bar, mostly red candles. Weak momentum.
➡ Verdict: WAIT
✅ Score: 5/10
Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Fundamentals & Technicals
No strong trigger this week. Entry valid lang kung may reversal candle near ₱0.48.
➡ Verdict: WAIT
✅ Score: 6/10
Step 5: Stop-Loss Policy
Hard stop below ₱0.48 still valid. Cut kapag breakdown.
➡ Verdict: HOLD WITH STOP
✅ Score: 9/10
Step 6: Color Change Signals
Wala pang bullish reversal color change.
➡ Verdict: WAIT
✅ Score: 5/10
Step 7: Profit-Taking via Valuation & Growth
Upside target zones (₱0.60–₱0.70) still intact, pero delayed.
➡ Verdict: HOLD, DELAYED TARGET
✅ Score: 7/10
Step 8: Re-Entry Plans
Pwede magdagdag sa breakout > ₱0.56 o reversal bounce sa ₱0.48.
➡ Verdict: CONDITIONAL BUY
✅ Score: 8/10
Step 9: Position Size Planning
Stay at Layer 1 only. Wag muna dagdag.
➡ Verdict: HOLD SMALL
✅ Score: 9/10
Step 10: Ethical & Counter-Trend Considerations
Speculative small cap, pero walang unethical red flag.
➡ Verdict: ETHICAL OK
✅ Score: 8/10
🧮 Total Score: 70/100
(Mas mababa kumpara sa 90/100 noong July 15. Nabawasan ng buwelo, kaya HOLD mode muna.)
3️⃣ Hatol ng Batangueñong Trader
Parang binalikan tayo ni ARA at sinabing: “Teka lang, wag ka muna magmadali.” Hindi ito sprint—kundi parang karera ng kalabaw: mabagal pero may lakas kapag tamang oras.
4️⃣ Next Steps (Tactical Plan)
📌 Entry Price Range: ₱0.48–₱0.50 (watch for reversal)
📌 Stop-Loss Level: Below ₱0.48 (hard stop)
📌 Target Prices: ₱0.60 / ₱0.63 / ₱0.70
📌 Add/Trim Plan: Add only on confirmed breakout above ₱0.56 or bounce at ₱0.48
📌 Position Strategy: Stay Layer 1 only, protect cash
5️⃣ Updated Layered Accumulation Plan (₱20,000 Allocation)
Layer 1 – Executed (July 15):
Buy 10,000 shares @ ₱0.55 = ₱5,500
Layer 2 – Reversal Test Buy:
Buy 10,000 shares @ ₱0.48–₱0.50 if bounce confirmed
Layer 3 – Breakout Add-on:
Buy 10,000 shares @ ₱0.56–₱0.57 if breakout sustained
Total Commitment: ₱15,500
Remaining Cash Buffer: ₱4,500
6️⃣ Updated Phased Exit Plan
Partial Exit 1: Sell 10,000 shares @ ₱0.60 (lock small profit)
Partial Exit 2: Sell 10,000 shares @ ₱0.63 (test resistance zone)
Final Exit: Sell 10,000 shares @ ₱0.70 (swing target)
Hard Stop: Below ₱0.48
7️⃣ Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD / WAIT
✅ Recommendation: HOLD small position, WAIT for reversal at ₱0.48 or breakout > ₱0.56
✅ Risk Management: Hard stop below ₱0.48
✅ Profit Strategy: ₱0.60 / ₱0.63 / ₱0.70 phased exits
✅ Position Size Strategy: Small exposure only, add only with confirmation
8️⃣ Closing Reflection
Hindi lahat ng buwelo ay tuloy-tuloy. Minsan, sinusubok muna ang tiyaga bago ibigay ang alon. Ang mahalaga—handa ang plano, malinaw ang stop, at buo ang disiplina.
📌 Trade Simulation Update – Subok Series
Portfolio: Tactical Rotation Fund
Capital Allocation: ₱20,000
Active Position: 10,000 shares @ ₱0.55 | Current P/L: –11%
Quick Hatol: HOLD small, bantayan ₱0.48 support
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Paalala lang: Ang post na ito ay para sa informational purposes only at hindi dapat ituring na financial advice. Laging siguraduhing gumawa ng sarili mong research bago pumasok sa kahit anong trade o investment.
Isang koleksyon ng edukasyonal, mindset-based, at strategic posts para sa retail traders na may disiplina sa plano at malasakit sa galaw ng merkado. Para sa maliit ang puhunan, pero malawak ang pag-iisip — at paninindigang Batangueño.
