Showing posts with label Stock Market Trading. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stock Market Trading. Show all posts

Friday, January 24, 2025

Overall Assessment of Our 3 Trades on Day 4 of Week 4: Micro Stock Trader Live Testing

Contents:

  • Summary of the Three Trades
  • Overall Market & Strategy Assessment
  • Next Steps in Our Live Testing

As we advance into Week 4 of our live testing phase, we executed three strategic trades on January 23, 2025 for RCR, DDMPR, and URC. This marks a critical phase in the evolution of our Micro Stock Trader Trading Strategy, where real-world application meets strategic refinement. This post provides a comprehensive assessment of our three trades, evaluating their alignment with our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy, overall performance, and key takeaways as we progress toward defining a robust, scalable approach to ethical stock trading.

Symbolic image representing live testing of a stock trading strategy with RCR, DDMPR, and URC.

Live Testing Status of Micro Stock Trader Strategy – Evaluating Three Key Trades.


Summary of the Three Trades

1. RL Commercial REIT (RCR) – Trade No. 1

  • Action: Buy

  • Entry Type: Anticipatory Entry

  • Entry Price: 6.00

  • Shares Bought: 200

  • Position Size: Final 20% of RCR trading shares acquired, completing the RCR portfolio allocation.

  • Entry Signal: Bullish Pin Bar

  • Trade Rating: 7.5/10

  • Current Status: Holding

Key Observations:

  • Entry at retracement support (5.89-5.94) aligned well with our strategy.

  • No strong green power bar confirmation, making the trade speculative.

  • Overhead resistance at 6.09-6.15 remains a challenge.

Trade Verdict: Cautiously optimistic. This trade holds potential for an upward move but needs stronger confirmation in upcoming sessions.

2. DDMP REIT (DDMPR) – Trade No. 2

  • Action: Buy

  • Entry Type: Anticipatory Entry

  • Entry Price: 1.06

  • Shares Bought: 3,000

  • Position Size: 50% of DDMPR allocation

  • Entry Signal: Green Bar

  • Trade Rating: 7/10

  • Current Status: Holding

Key Observations:

  • Entry aligned with 50% retracement support at 1.06.

  • Volume remains low, raising concerns about buyer strength.

  • Resistance at 1.08-1.10 (200-MA) could limit upside momentum.

Trade Verdict: Neutral. This trade could go either way; an increase in volume would enhance the trade’s potential.

3. Universal Robina Corporation (URC) – Trade No. 3

  • Action: Buy

  • Entry Type: Anticipatory Entry

  • Entry Price: 66.85

  • Shares Bought: 50

  • Position Size: Final 50% of URC trading shares acquired, completing the URC portfolio allocation.

  • Entry Signal: Green Tail Bar

  • Trade Rating: 7/10

  • Current Status: Holding

Key Observations:

  • The entry was positioned at a key retracement zone (67.00 support).

  • Low volume and strong previous red bars raise concerns.

  • Resistance at 69.60-71.50 makes this trade highly dependent on momentum.

Trade Verdict: Cautiously bullish. URC needs to confirm the reversal with a strong bullish close above resistance.

Overall Market & Strategy Assessment

1. Market Environment on January 24, 2025

  • Market sentiment was mixed, with select stocks attempting reversals while others remained weak.

  • Our trades were mostly anticipatory, requiring confirmation in the next few sessions.

  • Volume remains a concern, signaling cautious participation from institutional traders.

2. Lessons from Our Trades

1. Importance of Stronger Confirmations

  • While our retracement-based entries were strategically sound, we lacked strong green power bar confirmations in all three trades.

  • Future trades should emphasize confirmation signals, even if it means missing a slightly lower entry price.

2. Monitoring Resistance Zones Closely

  • RCR, DDMPR, and URC all face immediate resistance zones.

  • If price action struggles to break through, profit-taking or stop-loss adjustments should be made accordingly.

3. Risk Management Remains Key

  • Our stop-loss levels are well-placed, minimizing downside risk.

  • Portfolio allocation remains balanced, ensuring we are not overexposed to any single stock.

Next Steps in Our Live Testing

  1. Monitor Trade Confirmations: Look for strong bullish closes with volume in the next few sessions.

  2. Adjust Stop-Losses as Needed: If price stagnates or breaks support, we should exit to minimize losses.

  3. Refine Entry Strategies: Consider entering trades only on confirmation of power bars, even if it means waiting.

  4. Evaluate Market Sentiment: Broader market trends will influence whether these trades succeed or need to be exited.

Conclusion

The three trades executed on January 23, 2025, provide valuable insights into the ongoing development of our Micro Stock Trader Trading Strategy. While the entries were strategically placed within retracement structures, they lack immediate confirmation, making them speculative in nature. As we progress, refining our entry validation process and enhancing risk management will be key to optimizing our strategy. The coming days will determine whether these trades validate our evolving approach or highlight areas for further refinement.


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Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Evaluation of Trade No. 3 – Universal Robina Corporation (URC)

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

As part of our planned 20 test trades using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy, we executed our third trade on January 23, 2025, with Universal Robina Corporation (URC). Below is a detailed evaluation of the trade, analyzing our entry decision, market conditions, and trade management.

Technical analysis chart of URC with retracement levels, moving averages, and buy entry.

URC Daily Chart Showing Key Retracement Levels and Trade Entry.


Trade No. 3 Details

  • Trade No.: 3/20

  • Stock: Universal Robina Corporation (URC)

  • Trade Date: January 24, 2025

  • Action: Buy

  • Entry Type: Anticipatory Entry

  • Signal: Green Tail Bar

  • Entry Price: 66.85

  • Shares Bought: 50

  • Position Size: Remaining 50% of target URC trading shares, completing portfolio allocation

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

1. Market State & Trend Context - Score: 7/10

  • The stock remains in a strong downtrend, making lower highs and lower lows.

  • The 200-day MA (97.40) is trending downward, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

  • The 20-day MA (74.41) is also declining, acting as dynamic resistance.

  • URC closed at 66.80, still significantly below both moving averages.

  • Verdict: The stock remains weak, but a potential short-term reversal setup is emerging.

2. Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones - Score: 8/10

  • The stock is testing key retracement levels:

    • 55% retracement (67.65) is near the entry zone.

    • 75% retracement (68.55) is the next resistance.

    • Hard resistance at 71.50, where an exit is planned if reached.

  • Verdict: The entry at 66.85 is well-positioned within retracement structure but faces nearby resistance.

3. Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 6/10

  • A green tail bar formed near key support (67.00), suggesting buyers stepped in.

  • However, previous red power bars indicate that sellers still hold dominance.

  • Verdict: Early signs of reversal, but stronger confirmation is required.

4. Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies - Score: 6/10

  • The entry was made in anticipation of a bounce, based on a green tail bar at key support.

  • A stronger confirmation would have been a green power bar with volume.

  • Verdict: Entry is slightly aggressive but aligns with retracement principles.

5. Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 8/10

  • Stop-loss level: 65.50 (aligned with key retracement failure level).

  • A break below 65.50 would confirm further downside risk.

  • Verdict: The stop-loss is correctly placed for risk control.

6. Color Change as Secondary Confirmation - Score: 6/10

  • The green tail bar signals possible strength, but it must be followed by a green power bar.

  • If the price closes below 65.50, bearish momentum would resume.

  • Verdict: Pending confirmation.

7. Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 8/10

  • First profit target: 69.60 (100% retracement level).

  • Next target: 71.50 (hard resistance, planned exit).

  • Verdict: Profit-taking levels are well-placed.

8. Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 7/10

  • If the price pulls back to 67.00 and holds, a re-entry could be considered.

  • Verdict: Additional confirmation is needed before adding to the position.

9. Tactical Position Management - Score: 8/10

  • Position size at 50% allows flexibility for adjustments.

  • Verdict: Risk is well-managed.

10. Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 7/10

  • If the price falls below 65.50, a sell signal would emerge.

  • Verdict: Stop-loss must be honored strictly.

Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 7/10

Pros: 

✅ Entry is at a key retracement level.

✅ Green tail bar confirmation suggests early support.

✅ Good risk management with a 50% position size.

✅ Logical profit-taking zones set at 69.60-71.50.

Cons: 

❌ Volume is low, suggesting weak buyer conviction.

❌ Major resistance overhead at 71.50.

❌ A stronger entry would have been a green power bar with volume confirmation.

Next Steps:

  • Monitor for bullish continuation above 67.65.

  • Move stop-loss to breakeven (66.85) if price reaches 69.60.

  • Exit if price closes below 65.50.

Conclusion

This third trade in our 20-test trade series follows the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy, and while the entry was well-positioned, it lacks strong confirmation. The trade will be monitored for momentum continuation, and risk will be managed accordingly. Future trades will focus on higher volume confirmation before entry.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Evaluation of Trade No. 1 – RL Commercial REIT (RCR)

Contents:

  • Trade No. 1 Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

As part of our planned 20 test trades using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy, we executed our first trade on January 23, 2025, with RL Commercial REIT (RCR). Below is a detailed evaluation of the trade, analyzing our entry decision, market conditions, and trade management.

Technical analysis chart of RCR with retracement levels, moving averages, and buy entry.

RCR Daily Chart Showing Key Retracement Levels and Trade Entry.


Trade No. 1 Details

  • Trade No.: 1/20

  • Stock: RL Commercial REIT (RCR)

  • Trade Date: January 24, 2025

  • Action: Buy

  • Entry Type: Anticipatory Entry

  • Signal: Bullish Pin Bar

  • Entry Price: 6.00

  • Shares Bought: 200

  • Position Size: Remaining 20% of RCR trading shares balance, completing the RCR portfolio allocation

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

1. Market State & Trend Context - Score: 7/10

  • The stock had been in a downtrend from November to December 2024 but recently showed signs of reversal.

  • A double-bottom pattern had formed, suggesting a potential bullish shift.

  • Moving Averages:

    • The 200-day MA (5.61) remains below the price, indicating long-term weakness.

    • The 20-day MA (5.89) was tested as support, hinting at an upward resumption.

  • Verdict: Mixed signals, but recent price action suggests bullish potential.

2. Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones - Score: 8/10

  • The stock was trading within retracement zones from previous highs:

    • 30% retracement (5.89) held as support.

    • 41% retracement (5.94) was tested before entry.

    • 66% retracement (6.09) remains a major resistance.

  • The entry at 6.00 was within the acceptable retracement range.

  • Verdict: Good entry zone, but strong resistance ahead.

3. Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 6/10

  • A bullish pin bar formed at the 20-MA, aligning with a retracement level.

  • No strong green power bars yet, but higher lows suggest accumulation.

  • Verdict: Entry is based on anticipation; confirmation is required.

4. Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies - Score: 6/10

  • The entry was taken in anticipation of a breakout due to the pin bar signal.

  • Stronger confirmation would have been a break above 6.05 with volume.

  • Verdict: Slightly aggressive entry, but acceptable within strategy.

5. Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 8/10

  • Stop-loss level: Below 5.89 (under the 30% retracement and 20-MA support).

  • A break below this would indicate a failed trend reversal.

  • Verdict: Stop-loss is well-placed for risk control.

6. Color Change as Secondary Confirmation - Score: 6/10

  • The pin bar suggests a reversal attempt, but a green power bar is needed for confirmation.

  • If the price closes below 5.89, the trade becomes high risk.

  • Verdict: Confirmation is still pending.

7. Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 8/10

  • First profit target: 6.09 - 6.15 (retracement resistance zone).

  • Next target: 6.29 (previous 100% retracement level).

  • Verdict: Targets are logical within the resistance structure.

8. Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 7/10

  • If price dips to 5.89-5.94 and rebounds, re-entry could be considered.

  • Verdict: Further confirmation needed before adding to position.

9. Tactical Position Management - Score: 8/10

  • Position size at 20% keeps risk controlled while testing the setup.

  • Verdict: Conservative position sizing aligns with risk management.

10. Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 7/10

  • If price falls below 5.89, a sell signal would emerge.

  • Verdict: Stop-loss should be honored strictly.

Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 7.2/10

Pros: 

✅ Entry is at a key retracement level.

✅ Pin bar confirmation suggests bullish momentum.

✅ Good risk management with a 20% position size.

✅ Logical profit-taking zones set at 6.09-6.15.

Cons: 

❌ No green power bar confirmation yet.

❌ Major resistance overhead at 6.09-6.15.

❌ A safer entry would have been above 6.05 with volume confirmation.

Next Steps:

  • Monitor bullish continuation above 6.05.

  • Move stop-loss to breakeven (6.00) if price reaches 6.09.

  • Exit if price closes below 5.89.

Conclusion

This first trade in our 20-test trade series follows the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy, and while the entry was slightly aggressive, it aligns with retracement principles. The trade will be monitored for confirmation of bullish momentum, and risk will be managed accordingly. Future trades will focus on stronger confirmation signals before entry.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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