Showing posts with label Philippine Stock Market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Philippine Stock Market. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 19, 2025

Stock Price Follow-Up Review: Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE) Morning Chart as of February 19, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Stock Recommendation
  • Next Steps

I. Introduction

This follow-up review examines Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE) based on the morning session chart as of February 19, 2025.

MONDE recently attempted to break above the 9.13 resistance zone, following a strong close on February 18, 2025, at 8.45 with a volume surge of 10.465M, exceeding its target breakout volume of 10.41M.

This review will determine whether MONDE’s bullish momentum is sustainable and whether a buy opportunity exists using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 3.0.

Updated Trade Details (Morning Session – February 19, 2025)

  • Date: February 19, 2025
  • Stock: Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE)
  • Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
  • Timeframe: Morning Chart (End of Morning Session)
  • Opening Price: 8.45
  • High: 8.60
  • Low: 8.28
  • Current Price: 8.52
  • 20-MA (Short-Term Trend): 7.51
  • 200-MA (Long-Term Trend): 9.55

Volume Analysis (Morning Session – February 19, 2025)

  • Morning Volume: 3.825M
  • Closing Volume (February 18, 2025): 10.465M
  • 30-day Volume Average: 9.671M
  • 65-day Volume Average: 7.122M
  • Target Breakout Volume (65-day x 1.5 volume average): 10.41M

With MONDE’s price hovering near the 9.13 key breakout level, this analysis will evaluate whether the stock can sustain its bullish move or if a pullback is expected.

MONDE morning session chart with technical indicators as of February 19, 2025

MONDE Morning Session Stock Charts as of February 19, 2025


II. Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

  • Daily Chart:

    • MONDE continues to trade below the 200-day MA (9.55), meaning the long-term trend remains bearish.
    • However, the price is now well above the 20-day MA (7.51), indicating strong short-term bullish momentum.

  • Monthly Chart:

    • The stock is attempting a recovery from the 6.65 low, but it remains below the 20-MA (9.14).

➡ Verdict: Wait (Short-term bullish momentum is strong, but long-term downtrend remains).

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones

  • MONDE is currently at the 57% retracement level, slightly above the power move sweet spot of 8.47 - 9.13.
  • A break above 9.13 with strong volume would confirm a bullish continuation.

➡ Verdict: Watch for Breakout Above 9.13 (Critical Level for Bulls).

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation

  • MONDE closed with high volume (10.465M) on February 18, 2025, exceeding the 10.41M breakout target, indicating strong buying interest.
  • However, the morning session volume (3.825M) is lower, meaning momentum must be sustained throughout the day.

➡ Verdict: Buy on Further Strength (Monitor closing volume for confirmation).

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals

  • A full confirmation occurs if MONDE closes above 9.13 with strong volume.
  • The key resistance levels:
    • Short-term: 9.13
    • Mid-term: 9.55 (200-MA)

➡ Verdict: Small Entry Possible (Full confirmation needed).

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management

  • If entering long, a stop-loss should be placed below 8.00 to protect against downside risk.
  • A drop below 7.50 would signal further weakness.

➡ Verdict: Buy with Risk Management (Stop-loss at 8.00).

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation

  • Another green candle has formed, reinforcing bullish sentiment.
  • However, confirmation of bullish structure requires a sustained close above 9.13.

➡ Verdict: Wait (Needs a strong close above 9.13).

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits

  • Profit targets:
    • Short-term: 9.13
    • Mid-term: 9.55 (200-MA)
    • Long-term: 10.50

➡ Verdict: Hold Position, Take Partial Profits at 9.13 and 9.55.

Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones

  • Re-enter near 8.15 if support holds.
  • Buy on a confirmed breakout at 9.13.

➡ Verdict: Watch for Re-Entry on Retracement or Breakout.

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments

  • Core Position: Initiate if MONDE holds above 9.13 with volume confirmation.
  • Tactical Entry: A small position can be taken near 8.52, increasing size upon confirmation above 9.13.

➡ Verdict: Small Position Possible Near 8.52, Increase Size Above 9.13.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations

  • No counter-trend trade is recommended since MONDE is trading within a breakout structure.

➡ Verdict: Avoid Counter-Trend Trading.

III. Final Stock Recommendation

Final Trade Recommendation: BUY (With Confirmation)

✅ Recommendation: Buy if MONDE holds above 9.13 with strong volume.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss at 8.00 to manage downside risk.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Target prices at 9.13 (short-term), 9.55 (mid-term), and 10.50 (long-term).

✅ Position Size Strategy: Start small near 8.52, increase size upon confirmation above 9.13.

IV. Next Steps

🔹 Short-term traders: Monitor if MONDE sustains above 9.13 before taking full positions.

🔹 Long-term investors: Consider small entries near 8.52 with a stop at 8.00, then add if volume strengthens.

🔹 Existing holders: Monitor breakout confirmation above 9.13 before adding positions.

🚨 Final Thought: MONDE continues its breakout attempt. A strong close above 9.13 with volume confirmation is the key signal to watch. 🚨


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Tuesday, February 18, 2025

Stock Price Review: Universal Robina Corporation (URC) Daily Chart as of February 17, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Stock Recommendation
  • Next Steps

I. Introduction

Universal Robina Corporation (URC) is a major player in the Philippine stock market, known for its strong market presence in the food and beverage industry. This review will analyze its price movement using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 3.0 to determine the best trade decision.

Trade Details

  • Date: February 17, 2025
  • Stock: Universal Robina Corporation (URC)
  • Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
  • Timeframe: Daily
  • Closing Price: 63.95
  • High: 65.90
  • Low: 63.30
  • 20-MA (Short-Term Trend): 63.30
  • 200-MA (Long-Term Trend): 94.49

Pullback Under Consideration

  • Start of Power Move Date: January 14, 2025
  • Start of Power Move (100% Pullback): 75.00
  • End of Power Move Date: February 12, 2025
  • End of Power Move (0% Pullback): 59.70
  • Power Move Trend: Bearish
  • Power Move Sweet Spot: 68.12 - 71.18
  • Market Price To Date: 70.20
  • Pullback Level To Date: 69%

Volume Analysis (as of February 17, 2025)

  • Closing Volume: 2.49M
  • 30-day Volume Average: 2.68M
  • 65-day Volume Average: 2.61M
  • Target Breakout Volume (65-day x 1.5 Volume Average): 3.92M

The following analysis will apply our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy to determine whether URC presents a buy, sell, or hold opportunity.

URC stock daily chart with technical indicators as of February 17, 2025


URC stock monthly chart with technical indicators as of February 17, 2025

URC Daily and Monthly Stock Charts as of February 17, 2025


II. Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

  • The daily chart shows a downtrend phase with URC trading well below its 200-day MA (94.49).
  • The price is hovering around the 20-day MA (63.30), signaling a potential short-term consolidation after a steep decline.
  • The monthly chart confirms the long-term downtrend, with the 200-MA (113.94) acting as resistance.

➡ Verdict: Wait (Needs confirmation of trend reversal).

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones

  • The stock is currently below the 200-day MA, indicating a bearish macro trend.
  • The price is approaching the 70% retracement level (69%), making it a high-risk zone for long trades unless a reversal occurs.
  • Ideal bullish entry should be within the 25%-45% pullback range, meaning the stock is still in a danger zone for continued downside.

➡ Verdict: Wait (Not yet in a favorable entry zone).

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation

  • A green candle with increased volume was seen on February 17, 2025, indicating short-term buying interest.
  • However, breakout volume (3.92M) has not been met, suggesting weak confirmation.

➡ Verdict: Wait (Volume does not yet confirm breakout).

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals

  • The price is still below the key resistance zone (68.12 - 71.18).
  • A confirmed reversal pattern (e.g., higher lows or a strong bullish breakout above the sweet spot) is needed before entry.

➡ Verdict: Wait (Needs confirmation of a breakout above 71.18).

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management

  • If entering a long position, an initial stop-loss should be set below the recent swing low (59.70).
  • Risk remains high due to lack of volume confirmation.

➡ Verdict: Wait (Risk is still high for new positions).

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation

  • No clear color change pattern yet to confirm a trend reversal.
  • The stock remains inside a bearish channel with no strong green bar confirmation above key resistance.

➡ Verdict: Wait (Needs clear color change confirmation).

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits

  • Profit targets should be 75.00 for conservative exits and 80.00 for more aggressive ones.
  • However, since an entry is not confirmed, taking profits is not yet applicable.

➡ Verdict: Not applicable yet (Entry not confirmed).

Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones

  • If the stock reclaims 71.18 with strong volume, a re-entry can be considered.
  • Alternatively, a pullback to 60.00 with bullish reversal confirmation could be another re-entry point.

➡ Verdict: Wait (Monitor breakout levels before re-entry).

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments

  • Core Position: Not recommended yet due to uncertain trend.
  • Tactical Entry: Possible near 60.00 if a bullish reversal occurs or above 71.18 with strong volume.

➡ Verdict: Wait (No adjustment needed until a clearer trend forms).

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations

  • Counter-trend trading is not advisable yet since there hasn’t been a gap-down of more than 5% below the 200-MA or two consecutive large red candles near lows.

➡ Verdict: Avoid Counter-Trend Trading (No clear reversal setup).

III. Final Stock Recommendation

Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD/WAIT

✅ Recommendation: Wait for a breakout above 71.18 before considering a long position.
✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss should be set below 59.70 if entering a trade.
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Target prices at 75.00 (conservative) and 80.00 (aggressive).
✅ Position Size Strategy: Start with a small position upon breakout confirmation, then add gradually.

IV. Next Steps

🔹 Short-term traders: Avoid buying until a confirmed breakout above 71.18 occurs.
🔹 Long-term investors: May consider waiting for stabilization near 60.00 before adding positions.
🔹 Existing holders: Should monitor breakout confirmation or further downside risks before adjusting positions.
🚨 Final Thought: This is not the ideal entry point yet. A clearer bullish confirmation is required before taking action. 🚨


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Stock Price Review: Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE) Daily Chart as of February 17, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Stock Recommendation
  • Next Steps

I. Introduction

Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE) is a major food and beverage player in the Philippine stock market. As of February 17, 2025, MONDE has shown a recovery attempt after its bearish power move from 9.95 to 6.65. The stock has now retraced to a pullback level of 57%, positioning it near the power move sweet spot of 8.47 - 9.13.

This review will apply the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 3.0 to determine whether MONDE presents a buy, sell, or hold opportunity.

Trade Details

  • Date: February 17, 2025
  • Stock: Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE)
  • Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
  • Timeframe: Daily
  • Closing Price: 8.15
  • High: 8.20
  • Low: 7.92
  • 20-MA (Short-Term Trend): 7.36
  • 200-MA (Long-Term Trend): 9.57

Pullback Under Consideration

  • Start of Power Move Date: November 20, 2024
  • Start of Power Move (100% Pullback): 9.95
  • End of Power Move Date: January 31, 2025
  • End of Power Move (0% Pullback): 6.65
  • Power Move Trend: Bearish
  • Power Move Sweet Spot: 8.47 - 9.13
  • Market Price To Date: 8.52
  • Pullback Level To Date: 57%

Volume Analysis (as of February 17, 2025)

  • Closing Volume: 7.56M
  • 30-day Volume Average: 9.47M
  • 65-day Volume Average: 6.94M
  • Target Breakout Volume (65-day x 1.5 volume average): 10.41M

While MONDE has entered a technical retracement zone, volume has not yet fully confirmed a bullish breakout. Let’s proceed with the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy analysis.

MONDE stock daily chart with technical indicators as of February 17, 2025


MONDE stock monthly chart with technical indicators as of February 17, 2025

MONDE Daily and Monthly Stock Charts as of February 17, 2025


II. Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

  • Daily Chart:

    • MONDE is still in a long-term downtrend, as it trades below the 200-day MA (9.57).
    • However, it has reclaimed the 20-day MA (7.36), indicating short-term bullish momentum.

  • Monthly Chart:

    • The stock has bounced from the recent low (6.65) but remains below the 20-MA (9.14).
    • This suggests that long-term recovery is uncertain, and further confirmation is needed.

➡ Verdict: Wait (Short-term bullish, but long-term trend is still down).

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones

  • MONDE is in the 57% pullback zone, right above the sweet spot (8.47 - 9.13).
  • A break above 9.13 would confirm a bullish continuation.
  • A rejection below 8.47 would indicate a failed recovery and a possible retest of 7.50 or lower.

➡ Verdict: Watch for Breakout Above 9.13 (Key Decision Zone).

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation

  • MONDE has printed multiple green candles, but breakout volume is missing (current volume = 7.56M vs. target breakout volume = 10.41M).
  • The stock needs a surge in volume above 10.41M to confirm a breakout.

➡ Verdict: Wait (Volume is below breakout threshold).

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals

  • An ideal buy entry would be on a break above 9.13 with strong volume.
  • Current resistance levels:
    • Short-term: 8.47 - 9.13
    • Mid-term: 9.57 (200-MA)

➡ Verdict: Wait (Buy on breakout above 9.13 with strong volume).

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management

  • If entering long, stop-loss should be placed below 7.50 to protect against downside risk.
  • A drop below 6.65 would indicate further downside pressure.

➡ Verdict: Buy only with risk management (Stop-loss at 7.50).

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation

  • MONDE has shown consistent green candles, signaling bullish momentum.
  • However, it needs to sustain this trend above key resistance levels.

➡ Verdict: Wait (Needs sustained strength above 9.13).

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits

  • Profit targets:
    • Short-term: 9.13
    • Mid-term: 9.57
    • Long-term: 10.50

➡ Verdict: Hold with profit-taking at key resistance zones.

Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones

  • Buy on retracement near 8.00 if support holds.
  • Breakout entry at 9.13 for momentum continuation.

➡ Verdict: Watch for re-entry on retracement or confirmed breakout.

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments

  • Core Position: Entry should be considered above 9.13 with volume confirmation.
  • Tactical Entry: A smaller position may be taken near 8.15, but only if support holds.

➡ Verdict: Small position possible near 8.15, full position upon breakout.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations

  • Counter-trend trades are not recommended unless the stock retests 7.00 with a bullish reversal pattern.

➡ Verdict: Avoid Counter-Trend Trading.

III. Final Stock Recommendation

Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD/WAIT

✅ Recommendation: Wait for a breakout above 9.13 before entering.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss below 7.50 to minimize downside risk.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Target prices at 9.13 (short-term), 9.57 (mid-term), and 10.50 (long-term).

✅ Position Size Strategy: Start small near 8.15 if support holds, increase size upon breakout confirmation.

IV. Next Steps

🔹 Short-term traders: Avoid entering until MONDE clears 9.13 with strong volume.

🔹 Long-term investors: Monitor for stability above 8.15 before considering accumulation.

🔹 Existing holders: Consider reducing exposure if price fails to break 9.13.

🚨 Final Thought: MONDE is in a potential reversal phase but needs confirmation above 9.13. A breakout with volume is required for a buy signal. 🚨


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Stock Price Review: Asian Terminals, Inc. (ATI) Daily Chart as of February 17, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Stock Recommendation
  • Next Steps

Introduction

Asian Terminals, Inc. (ATI) is a key player in Philippine port operations, handling a significant portion of the country's cargo and logistics services. This stock price review for ATI is based on its daily chart as of February 17, 2025, utilizing our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 3.0.

TRADE DETAILS: Date: February 17, 2025
Stock: Asian Terminals, Inc. (ATI)
Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
Timeframe: Daily
Closing Price: 16.80
High: 16.90
Low: 16.80
20-MA (Short-Term Trend): 16.79
200-MA (Long-Term Trend): 18.52

Pullback Under Consideration:
Start of Power Move Date: January 31, 2025
Start of Power Move (100% Pullback): 17.40
End of Power Move Date: February 12, 2025
End of Power Move (0% Pullback): 16.30
Power Move Trend: Bearish
Power Move Sweet Spot: 16.91 - 17.13
Current Pullback Level: 45%

Volume Analysis:
Closing Volume on February 17, 2025: 0.25M
65-day volume average: 0.31M
30-day volume average: 0.38M
Target Breakout Volume (65-day x 1.8 volume average): 0.55M

This review follows our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 3.0 for a structured and comprehensive assessment.

Asian Terminals, Inc. (ATI) stock daily chart with technical indicators as of February 17, 2025


Asian Terminals, Inc. (ATI) stock monthly chart with technical indicators as of February 17, 2025

ATI Daily and Monthly Stock Charts as of February 17, 2025

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context
ATI is in a downtrend phase with a bearish power move from January 31, 2025 (17.40) to February 12, 2025 (16.30). The price is below the 200-day MA (18.52), indicating a bearish long-term trend. However, the price is near the 20-day MA (16.79), suggesting short-term consolidation.
➞ Verdict: Wait (Needs confirmation of trend reversal)

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones
ATI is currently below the 200-MA but near the 20-MA, indicating a near location. The pullback level is at 45%, right at the edge of our bullish continuation sweet spot (25%-45%).
➞ Verdict: Wait (Price near sweet spot but needs breakout confirmation)

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation
No strong green power bars or breakout signals. Volume is at 0.25M, below the target breakout volume of 0.55M.
➞ Verdict: Hold (Lack of breakout signals and volume confirmation)

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals
No clear entry signal as price remains in consolidation with low volume.
➞ Verdict: Wait (No confirmed entry signals)

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management
A logical stop-loss would be below the recent low of 16.30.
➞ Verdict: Hold (Wait for better risk-to-reward setup)

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation
No color change signals indicating a potential reversal.
➞ Verdict: Hold

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits
If entering, target exits at 17.40 (previous high) and 17.90 (key resistance).
➞ Verdict: Plan Only

Step 8: Potential Re-entry Zones
Re-entry on break above 17.13 with volume confirmation.
➞ Verdict: Wait

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments
Consider a small tactical entry (10% of position size) on volume-supported breakout.
➞ Verdict: Hold

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations
No counter-trend setup as there are no consecutive gap-downs or a 5% drop below the 200-MA.
➞ Verdict: Not Applicable

Final Stock Recommendation

Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD
✅ Recommendation: Hold and wait for breakout above 17.13 with volume confirmation.
✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss below 16.30 to protect against downside risk.
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Target 17.40 and 17.90 for gradual exits.
✅ Position Size Strategy: Start with a small tactical position on confirmed breakout.

Next Steps

🔹 Short-term traders → Wait for a breakout above 17.13 with volume confirmation before entering.
🔹 Long-term investors → Hold and monitor for trend reversal signals.
🔹 Existing holders → Maintain positions with stop-loss at 16.30.

🚨 Final Thought: Volume and breakout confirmation are critical before making any new entries. 🚨


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Stock Price Review: AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp. (ALLHC) Daily and Monthly Charts as of February 17, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Stock Recommendation
  • Next Steps

Introduction

AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp. (ALLHC) is a key logistics and real estate player in the Philippine market. This stock price review analyzes the daily and monthly charts as of February 17, 2025, using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 3.0.

TRADE DETAILS: Date: February 17, 2025
Stock: AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp. (ALLHC)
Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
Timeframe: Daily
Closing Price: PHP 1.58
High: PHP 1.63
Low: PHP 1.57
20-MA (Short-Term Trend): PHP 1.62
200-MA (Long-Term Trend): PHP 1.86

Pullback Under Consideration:
Start of Power Move Date: February 03, 2025
Start of Power Move (100% Pullback): PHP 1.64
End of Power Move Date: February 04, 2025
End of Power Move (0% Pullback): PHP 1.57
Power move trend: Bearish
Power Move Sweet Spot: PHP 1.61 - 1.62
Current Pullback Level: 14%

Volume Analysis:
Closing Volume on February 17, 2025: 720K shares
65-day volume average: 860K shares
30-day volume average: 550K shares
Target Breakout Volume: 1.56M shares

AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp. stock daily chart with technical indicators as of February 17, 2025

AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp. stock monthly chart with technical indicators as of February 17, 2025

ALLHC Daily and Monthly Stock Charts as of February 17, 2025


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context
Bearish downtrend with price below the 200-day MA of PHP 1.86. The 20-MA at PHP 1.62 reflects short-term bearish momentum.
➡ Verdict: Wait

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones
Price below both MAs, signaling caution. No ideal entry zone reached.
➡ Verdict: Wait

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume
No power bars or breakout signals; volume below target.
➡ Verdict: Hold

Step 4: Entry Confirmation
No bullish signals or break above PHP 1.61.
➡ Verdict: Wait

Step 5: Stop-Loss & Risk Management
Stop-loss below PHP 1.50.
➡ Verdict: Hold

Step 6: Color Change Signals
No bullish color change.
➡ Verdict: Wait

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies
Target PHP 1.75 and PHP 2.00 on reversal.
➡ Verdict: Hold

Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones
Watch PHP 1.50 for re-entry.
➡ Verdict: Wait

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments
No active positions.
➡ Verdict: Hold

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading
No gap-downs or drops to justify counter-trend trades.
➡ Verdict: Avoid

Final Stock Recommendation

Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD
✅ Recommendation: Hold until bullish confirmation above PHP 1.61-1.62.
✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss below PHP 1.50.
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Target PHP 1.75-2.00.
✅ Position Size Strategy: Small position on bullish signals.

Next Steps

🔹 Short-term traders → Wait for breakout above PHP 1.61-1.62.
🔹 Long-term investors → Monitor PHP 1.50 for entry.
🔹 Existing holders → Hold and avoid adding positions.
🚨 Final Thought: Exercise caution; wait for confirmed bullish reversal. 🚨


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Thursday, February 13, 2025

Tactical Trade Review: Manila Electric Company (MER) Exit at ₱485.00 and ₱492.60 on February 11-12, 2025 – Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Evaluation

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Key Learnings from the Stock Price Review
  • Tactical Trade Execution
  • Final Reflections: What This Trade Taught Us

Introduction

Stock trading is a continuous learning process, and our latest execution on Manila Electric Company (MER) – Trade No. 3/20 and 4/20 reflects key insights gained from our Stock Price Review dated February 11, 2025. By applying our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy, we assessed whether MER was positioned for a buy, sell, or hold decision before executing our tactical trades at ₱485.00 on February 11, 2025, and ₱492.60 on February 12, 2025. This post explores how our Stock Price Review findings influenced our trade decision, ensuring a data-driven and disciplined execution.

Daily chart of Manila Electric Co. (MER) as of February 12, 2025, showing price levels, volume analysis, and key moving averages.

Manila Electric Company (MER) Trade Execution – Learning from Stock Price Review for Tactical Decisions

Key Learnings from the Stock Price Review: MER Trade No. 3/20


1. Market State & Trend Context Confirmed a Bullish Structure

Our Stock Price Review established that the 20-MA (₱481.38) was above the 200-MA (₱428.53), reinforcing the overall uptrend structure. The current price was trading above both moving averages, maintaining a bullish context.

  • Impact on our trade: This supported holding MER, but we closely monitored signs of resistance and weakening momentum.

2. Price Position & Retracement Zones Were a Key Consideration

MER had retraced from its high of ₱503.50 down to ₱448.00, marking a 72% pullback. The price range of ₱478.53 - ₱489.63 was identified as the Power Move Sweet Spot, presenting an ideal buying zone.

  • Impact on our trade: We remained patient within this range but executed a sell at ₱485.00 as volume failed to strengthen, signaling a potential risk.

3. Volume Analysis Indicated Weak Momentum

Volume was considerably weak at 103.66K compared to the 65-day volume average of 228.03K. A target breakout volume of 410K was needed for strong confirmation.

  • Impact on our trade: The failure to meet breakout volume led us to exit at ₱485.00 to manage downside risk while considering potential re-entry points.

4. Tactical Position Adjustments Influenced Risk Management

Our position size was adjusted according to market conditions. Initially, we held 50% allocation, ensuring controlled risk exposure within our planned trade execution levels.

  • Impact on our trade: We exited 50% of our position on February 11 at ₱485.00 to mitigate further risk.

5. Candlestick Signals or Lack Thereof Justified the Trade

The stock lacked strong bullish confirmation, with no significant power bars or color change signals appearing on the daily chart.

  • Impact on our trade: The absence of a decisive breakout candle reinforced our decision to lock in gains and secure our capital for potential re-entry at lower levels.

Tactical Trade Execution: SELL at ₱485.00

Following the insights from our Stock Price Review, we executed a sell action aligned with our technical assessment and risk management strategy:

Stock: Manila Electric Company (MER)

Trade No. 3/20
Date: February 11, 2025
Action: SELL
Number of Shares: 10
Price: ₱485.00
Net Gain/Loss Since Inception: -₱21.61
Total Shares Held After Trade: 10
Position Size: 50%

Key Learnings from the MER Stock Price Review: MER Trade No. 4/20


1. Market State & Trend Context Confirmed Uptrend

Our stock review established that MER was trading above both the 20-day and 200-day moving averages at ₱485.00, confirming a bullish structure. However, despite this, our Trade No. 4/20 was a SELL, which may seem counterintuitive. The key factor? Resistance at ₱490-₱500 remained a significant hurdle, and price struggled to break higher.

How This Influenced Our Trade:

  • Instead of buying into the resistance, we decided to sell near the upper range of the power move sweet spot at ₱492.60, locking in profits rather than risking a potential pullback.

2. The Pullback Sweet Spot Was a Double-Edged Sword

The stock price had retraced 72% from its previous high of ₱503.50, reaching the ideal buy zone (₱478.53 - ₱489.63). This suggested that buyers could step in at these levels for a potential rebound.

How This Influenced Our Trade:

  • While this zone signaled a possible buy opportunity, the review also highlighted a lack of volume confirmation, meaning breakout potential was weak.
  • Given the uncertainty, we opted to exit our position at ₱492.60, taking advantage of the price recovery without committing to further upside risk.

3. Volume Analysis Indicated Weak Breakout Potential

One of the most critical findings from our Stock Price Review was that MER’s volume was significantly below breakout levels:

  • Closing volume: 103.66K, much lower than the target breakout volume of 410K.
  • 30-day & 65-day volume averages: 220.94K and 228.03K, meaning MER was trading at nearly half its normal volume.

How This Influenced Our Trade:

  • A successful breakout above ₱490.00 required strong volume, which was absent.
  • Selling at ₱492.60 allowed us to exit before potential low-volume price rejection, preventing unnecessary downside exposure.

4. Tactical Position Adjustments Confirmed the Need to Reduce Risk

Our review recommended a controlled position-sizing strategy, advising:

  • Buying only within the ₱478.53 - ₱485.00 range and adding only if MER broke ₱490.00 with volume.

How This Influenced Our Trade:

  • Since volume failed to confirm a breakout, we avoided increasing our position and instead exited fully at ₱492.60, bringing our position size to 0%.

5. Lack of Strong Candlestick Signals Justified a Cautious Exit

Our Stock Price Review noted that:

  • No power bars or breakout signals were present.
  • No strong color change signals indicated a clear trend continuation.

How This Influenced Our Trade:

  • Without bullish confirmation, our best move was to secure profits and step aside rather than hope for an uncertain rally.

Tactical Trade Execution: SELL at ₱492.60

Trade Summary

  • Stock: Manila Electric Company (MER)
  • Trade No.: 4/20
  • Date: February 12, 2025
  • Action: SELL
  • Number of Shares: 10
  • Price: ₱492.60
  • Net Gain/Loss Since Inception: ₱122.37
  • Total Shares Held After Trade: 0
  • Position Size (% of Allocation): 0%

Final Reflections: What This Trade Taught Us

Our Trade No. 3/20 and 4/20 were direct responses to the lessons from our Stock Price Review: 

✅ We respected resistance and sold near key levels. 

✅ We prioritized volume confirmation and exited when it was weak. 

✅ We managed risk by locking in gains rather than chasing uncertain upside. 

✅ We avoided counter-trend trading, as no major reversal signals were present.

Going forward, we will continue monitoring volume conditions before considering a re-entry into MER.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Wednesday, February 12, 2025

Stock Price Review: Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE) Daily Chart as of February 12, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Contents:

  • Introduction

  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

  • Final Stock Recommendation

  • Next Steps

Introduction

Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE) has been one of the most actively traded stocks on the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE), attracting both retail and institutional traders. Given the recent price movement and volume surge, it is crucial to assess whether MONDE presents a buying opportunity or if caution is warranted.

TRADE DETAILS

Date: February 12, 2025
Stock: Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE)
Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
Timeframe: Daily
Closing Price: 8.00
High: 8.05
Low: 7.79
20-MA (Short-Term Trend): 7.22
200-MA (Long-Term Trend): 9.61

Pullback Under Consideration

Start of Power Move: January 2, 2025
Start of Power Move (100% Pullback): 8.60
End of Power Move: January 31, 2025
End of Power Move (0% Pullback): 6.65
Power Move Trend: Bearish
Power Move Sweet Spot: 7.72 - 8.11
Market Price To Date: 8.00
Pullback Level To Date: 69%

Volume Analysis (as of February 12, 2025)

Closing Volume: 17.76M
65-day volume average: 6.80M
30-day volume average: 9.00M
Target Breakout Volume (65-day x 1.8 volume average): 12.25M

This stock price review follows our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy to determine whether MONDE is a Buy, Sell, or Hold opportunity.

MONDE Stock price chart from the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) showing moving averages, volume analysis, and market trends for technical evaluation as of February 12, 2025.

MONDE Stock price chart displaying key technical indicators, including moving averages, volume trends, and price action patterns as of February 12, 2025.


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

  • MONDE is in a downtrend phase with a bearish power move recorded from January 2, 2025 (8.60) to January 31, 2025 (6.65).

  • The price is below the 200-day MA (9.61), indicating a bearish long-term trend.

  • The stock is trading above the 20-day MA (7.22), suggesting short-term bullish momentum.

  • Verdict: Wait (Needs confirmation of trend reversal)

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones

  • The price is currently within the Power Move Sweet Spot (7.72 - 8.11).

  • At 69% pullback, it is near the upper retracement zone, which typically signals a resistance level.

  • Verdict: Hold/Wait (Confirm breakout above 8.11 for long positions)

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation

  • Closing volume (17.76M) exceeds the breakout target volume (12.25M), signaling strong buyer interest.

  • Multiple green power bars indicate positive momentum.

  • Verdict: Buy (Breakout confirmation present)

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals

  • The stock is attempting a breakout above the Power Move Sweet Spot (8.11).

  • A clean move above 8.11 with volume will confirm an entry signal.

  • Verdict: Buy if price clears 8.11 with strong volume

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management

  • Stop-loss below 7.72 (lower end of the sweet spot) to minimize downside risk.

  • Verdict: Buy with stop-loss below 7.72

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation

  • No major bearish reversal signals yet.

  • If price breaks 8.11, bullish confirmation strengthens.

  • Verdict: Buy if momentum sustains

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits

  • Short-term target: 8.60 (previous resistance)

  • Mid-range target: 9.00 (psychological level)

  • Verdict: Buy with profit targets at 8.60 and 9.00

Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones

  • Pullback buy zone: 7.72 - 8.11

  • Verdict: Re-enter on pullbacks within sweet spot if volume holds

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments

  • Core Position: Enter at 8.11 with 50% allocation.

  • Tactical Entry: Additional 10% position above 8.60 breakout.

  • Verdict: Gradual position scaling

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations

  • Since the 200-MA is far above (9.61), MONDE is still in a long-term downtrend.

  • Counter-trend trades should only be considered if it breaks 9.00 with strong momentum.

  • Verdict: Caution on long-term positions

Final Stock Recommendation

Final Trade Recommendation: BUY (With Conditions)

✅ Recommendation: Buy at 8.11 if volume sustains and price confirms breakout.
✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss below 7.72 to minimize downside risk.
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Initial target 8.60, mid-range target 9.00.
✅ Position Size Strategy: Enter with 50% core position, scale up on strength.

Next Steps

🔹 Short-term traders → Watch for breakout confirmation above 8.11 before entering.
🔹 Long-term investors → Only enter if price clears 9.00 with strong volume.
🔹 Existing holders → Consider holding but set stop-loss below 7.72 for risk control.
🚨 Final Thought: The market remains in a bearish trend long-term, so caution is necessary. Wait for confirmation above 8.11 before executing a buy.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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