Friday, August 7, 2026

MH Operator Journal Entry 6: ICT Liquidity-Driven Partial Release

HomeBoard Lot WarriorMicro HarvestingMicro Harvesting 2.0 › MH Operator Journal › ICT › Journal Entry 6 › Liquidity-Driven Partial Release

Transaction Date: August 6, 2026
Action: Sold 20 ICT shares
Execution Price: ₱1,000 per share
Primary Classification: Liquidity-Driven Partial Release
Secondary Technical Context: Constructive trend, but not an upper-band harvest
Portfolio Objective: Gradual liquidity and dry-powder build-up
Anchor Shares: 500
Rotational Trading Shares, beginning: 100
Rotational Trading Shares, ending: 80
Total Shares: 580
Total Internal Ledger Cost: ₱565,002.24

ICT liquidity-driven partial release showing a container port, constructive price trend, preserved Core Anchor, and portfolio flexibility.
A controlled release of 20 ICT rotational shares at ₱1,000 to build liquidity gradually while preserving the 500-share Core Anchor.

👉 Explore the full Micro Harvesting 2.0 framework
👉 Start Here | CSSC Learning Series | MH Application Series | MH Operator Journal

We sold 20 ICT rotational shares at ₱1,000—not because the Core Anchor thesis weakened, but because portfolio liquidity also needs deliberate attention. This entry shows how MH 2.0 placed gradual liquidity build-up ahead of waiting for a technically perfect harvest.

Originally published: August 6, 2026 · Last updated: August 6, 2026

Links to related posts


Nilalaman


The Action

We sold 20 shares of ICT at ₱1,000 per share.

This was not a conventional valuation harvest.

It was also not an ideal Bollinger Reversion upper-band sale.

ICT remained below our updated fair-value estimate of approximately ₱1,095, while the daily chart showed price trading closer to the Bollinger middle band than to the upper band.

The transaction was executed for a different and clearly defined reason:

Gradual liquidity build-up

This was a portfolio-governance action carried out through the rotational portion of our ICT position.


The Technical Context

ICT closed at ₱1,000 on August 6, 2026, after trading between ₱982 and ₱1,012.

The Bollinger Band levels were:

  • Middle band: approximately ₱988
  • Upper band: approximately ₱1,022
  • Lower band: approximately ₱954

At the closing price, ICT was approximately:

  • ₱12 above the middle band
  • ₱22 below the upper band

The price was therefore still nearer the middle-band reference than the upper harvest boundary.

This was not the usual location where we would describe a sale as an upper-band harvest.

The broader technical structure nevertheless remained constructive.

Price was:

  • above the rising 20-day middle band;
  • above the 50-day SMA at approximately ₱926;
  • and far above the EMA-200 ribbon.

RSI stood at approximately 59.55, reflecting positive but not overbought momentum.

MACD remained above the zero line, although the MACD line at approximately 20 was slightly below the signal line at approximately 22. The negative histogram reading of approximately −2 indicated slowing near-term momentum, but not a confirmed breakdown.

Volume of approximately 1.753 million shares was also slightly below the 50-day average volume of approximately 1.851 million.

The final technical reading was therefore:

The primary uptrend remained intact, but short-term momentum was consolidating below the upper Bollinger Band.

On technical grounds alone, waiting for a stronger push toward or through the upper band would have offered a better harvest location.

We chose not to wait.


Why the Technical Setup Was Secondary

Micro Harvesting 2.0 does not require every transaction to be governed by the same setup.

A BRS harvest is driven primarily by price location and reversion conditions.

A liquidity-driven release is governed by the needs of the portfolio.

For this transaction, the hierarchy was:

  1. Portfolio liquidity requirement
  2. Preservation of the Core Anchor
  3. Use of rotational inventory
  4. Technical context
  5. Maximization of sale price

The technical chart remained relevant, but it did not hold the highest decision priority.

We acknowledged that ₱1,000 was not the ideal upper-band harvest level. We nevertheless accepted the execution because gradually rebuilding liquidity was more important than waiting for a technically perfect sale that might or might not arrive within the required period.

This is not disregard for the chart.

It is proper prioritization.


Why Sell Below Updated Fair Value?

Our updated ICT value is approximately ₱1,095 per share.

At ₱1,000, the sale was executed approximately 8.7% below estimated fair value.

That may initially appear inconsistent with our strongly positive ICT thesis.

But valuation and capital allocation answer different questions.

Valuation asks:

What is the business reasonably worth?

Capital allocation asks:

How much of the portfolio should remain committed to the business at this time?

A stock can remain undervalued while a limited partial release is still appropriate.

We did not sell because our estimate of ICT’s long-term value deteriorated.

We sold because the portfolio also needs:

  • dry powder;
  • withdrawal capacity;
  • room for future refills;
  • protection against market-wide weakness;
  • and capital for better-valued opportunities across the portfolio.

A strong stock thesis does not remove the need for liquidity.


Capital Allocation Gate 5 in Actual Operation

In ICT Stock Study, Post 6, we stated:

The dry powder is not idle money. It is strategic optionality.

This transaction is a direct application of that rule.

Liquidity is not something we should begin building only when cash is already urgently needed.

Waiting until the need becomes immediate can create pressure to:

  • sell more shares than necessary;
  • accept a weaker price;
  • disturb the Core Anchor;
  • or liquidate during unfavorable market conditions.

Instead, we are building liquidity gradually through controlled releases from rotational inventory.

The sale of 20 shares at ₱1,000 creates only a modest reduction in exposure, but it begins transferring capital back into portfolio optionality.

That is the purpose of gradual liquidity management.


Why Only 20 Shares?

Before the transaction, our ICT position consisted of:

  • 500 Anchor Shares
  • 70 Rotational Trading Shares
  • 570 Total Shares

After selling 20 shares, the position becomes:

  • 500 Anchor Shares
  • 50 Rotational Trading Shares
  • 550 Total Shares

The full 500-share Core Anchor remains intact.

This point is essential.

We did not weaken the strategic foundation of our ICT position.

We released a portion of the rotational inventory—the shares specifically intended to give us flexibility for harvesting, liquidity management, and future re-entry.

The transaction therefore preserved both sides of the MH 2.0 structure:

  • long-term participation through the Core Anchor;
  • and capital flexibility through the rotational component.

Not a Conventional Harvest

This transaction should not be described as:

  • an upper-band harvest;
  • a valuation exit;
  • a bearish reduction;
  • or a loss of conviction in ICT.

The chart does not support those descriptions.

ICT remained in a constructive primary trend, above the middle band and major moving averages. It was not technically overextended, while the updated valuation continued to support a positive long-term view.

The correct classification is:

Liquidity-Driven Partial Release

More specifically:

A controlled sale from rotational inventory, executed below fair value and before an ideal upper-band harvest condition, because gradual liquidity build-up carried higher portfolio priority.

That classification is transparent and consistent with the actual decision.


Was This a Deviation From the BRS?

It was not a BRS sell setup in the conventional sense.

If judged purely as a technical harvest, the execution was early.

The upper Bollinger Band was approximately ₱1,022, while the sale was completed at ₱1,000. Price was also closer to the ₱988 middle band than the upper boundary.

But the transaction was not governed primarily by BRS.

The liquidity gate was the governing rule.

Therefore, the absence of an upper-band condition does not invalidate the sale. It only requires us to avoid presenting it as something it was not.

The journal should state openly:

The technical context remained constructive, and the chart did not yet provide an ideal upper-band harvest. We nevertheless released a limited number of rotational shares because the gradual rebuilding of portfolio liquidity had higher priority than waiting for maximum technical extension.

That is governance, not inconsistency.


The Opportunity Cost We Accepted

By selling at ₱1,000, we accepted the possibility that ICT could continue rising toward the upper band, retest its recent high, or move closer to updated fair value.

That is the upside opportunity cost of the transaction.

We accepted it deliberately.

Liquidity always carries an opportunity cost. Capital held as dry powder does not participate in the stock’s immediate upside.

But the reverse is also true.

Capital fully committed to one stock cannot respond to:

  • a broad-market selloff;
  • a deeper ICT refill;
  • another stock entering a superior valuation zone;
  • a scheduled withdrawal;
  • or a portfolio-repair requirement.

The sale therefore exchanged a small amount of possible near-term ICT upside for broader portfolio optionality.

That was the intended trade-off.


Governance Reading

This transaction demonstrates that ICT’s Core Anchor status does not mean every ICT share must remain permanently committed.

The anchor is strategic.

The rotational inventory is flexible.

Our conviction in ICT remains strong, but conviction must operate within portfolio governance.

We can believe that ICT remains below fair value and still decide that part of the capital is temporarily more useful as liquidity.

We can recognize a constructive chart and still prioritize a portfolio-level need.

We can preserve the anchor while releasing rotational shares.

These positions are not contradictory.

They reflect different layers of decision-making within MH 2.0.


Final Reading

The sale of 20 ICT shares at ₱1,000 was a Liquidity-Driven Partial Release.

It was executed:

  • below our updated fair-value estimate;
  • while ICT remained in a constructive long-term trend;
  • before price reached the upper Bollinger Band;
  • and at a location nearer the middle band than the upper harvest boundary.

We did not sell because ICT had become weak.

We did not sell because the valuation thesis had changed.

We did not sell because the chart produced a perfect harvest setup.

We sold because the portfolio needed to begin rebuilding liquidity gradually, and the rotational inventory gave us the proper mechanism to do so without disturbing the Core Anchor.

The 500 anchor shares remain intact.

The long-term ICT thesis remains intact.

What improved was the portfolio’s flexibility.

ICT remains the anchor. Dry powder remains the optionality that keeps the whole machine ready.


Shariah Compliance Advisory (Updated Nov 26, 2025)

The PSE has confirmed that its Shariah screening program is currently paused, with no new lists to be released until their internal review is completed. Although news outlets reported quarterly updates up to mid-2025, these later lists are no longer accessible on the PSE website.

For now, the PSE’s Shariah-Compliant Securities page and all past lists have been removed from the public website. The December 24, 2024 list is the last official version in Micro Stock Trader’s possession, downloaded before the page was taken down, although other investors may still hold later copies such as the reported July 4, 2025 release.

All halal-focused strategies under Micro Stock Trader will use a conservative, self-screened approach until official guidance resumes, in shā’ Allāh.

Ang post na ito ay bahagi ng aming personal learning journey sa securities analysis at portfolio governance. Ang mga konseptong may kaugnayan sa interest-based instruments, conventional bonds, preferred shares, o iba pang financial arrangements ay binabanggit lamang bilang bahagi ng academic coverage ng module at hindi bilang rekomendasyon o endorsement.

Disclaimer

This post is for educational and documentation purposes only. It is not investment advice. Perform your own due diligence and consult qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions. All strategies, frameworks, and examples described here reflect the personal methodologies of Micro Stock Trader and are not guarantees of future performance.


Illustration of a calm, disciplined trader reviewing charts and layered ladders, symbolizing the transformation of the Board Lot Warrior ecosystem in 2025.
Micro Stock Trader Blog
Board Lot Warrior
Ang Inyong Batangueñong Retail Stock Trader

Home | About UsContact Us | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use | Disclaimer

Thursday, August 6, 2026

ICT Stock Study 7: ICT Updated Valuation

HomeBoard Lot WarriorMicro HarvestingMicro Harvesting 2.0 › MH Application Series › ICT Stock Study › ICT Updated Valuation as of August 5, 2026

Valuation Date: August 5, 2026
Financial Information Cut-off: June 30, 2026
Historical Base: Audited Annual Reports from 2021 to 2025
Latest Interim Base: First Half 2026
Primary Valuation Method: Free Cash Flow to the Firm
Reporting Currency: US dollars, converted to Philippine pesos

Container ship and global port terminal with rising financial charts for ICTSI’s updated valuation as of August 5, 2026.
ICTSI’s updated valuation reflects its strength, resilience, disciplined growth, and long-term role as the Core Anchor Holding of Micro Harvesting 2.0.

👉 Explore the full Micro Harvesting 2.0 framework
👉 Start Here | CSSC Learning Series | MH Application Series | MH Operator Journal

ICTSI entered 2026 from a position of strength—and its first-half results reinforced that position.

After reviewing five years of audited operating growth, stronger cash generation, new terminal contributions, and the company’s continuing expansion program, we are updating our ICT valuation with a deliberately forward-looking Core Anchor perspective.

We recognize the risks. Those belong in the updated Risk Management post that follows.

Here, our focus is on value, resilience, and the upside potential of the business we selected to serve as the principal anchor of Micro Harvesting 2.0.

Originally published: August 5, 2026 · Last updated: August 5, 2026

Links to related posts


Nilalaman

Ang Punto ng Usapan

Our original valuation gave us a practical framework for rebuilding our ICT position.

It established:

Estimated fair value: approximately ₱995

Margin of Safety: 5%

Valuation-based buy-below price: approximately ₱945

That framework served its purpose.

It gave us a disciplined price reference during the early formation of our ICT Core Anchor position and provided the valuation context for the transaction later documented in the MH Operator Journal.

But valuation is not static.

As new financial information becomes available, the model must evolve with the business.

Since the previous valuation, we have gained access to:

  • the complete audited results for 2025;
  • the full first-half 2026 operating and financial results;
  • early contributions from newly added terminals;
  • updated cash-flow and balance-sheet information;
  • and a five-year historical record covering 2021 through 2025.

The purpose of this post is therefore not to replace our old valuation as though it never existed.

It is to move naturally from the previous framework into a stronger and more informed valuation of ICT as the Core Anchor Holding of Micro Harvesting 2.0.


From the Previous Valuation to the Updated Framework

Our previous valuation produced an estimated fair value of approximately ₱995 and a 5% margin-of-safety buy-below price of approximately ₱945.

That was the applicable valuation framework when we completed the 120-share consolidated purchase recorded in the MH Operator Journal.

The transaction was executed at an average price of ₱962 per share.

Under the previous valuation:

  • the execution was approximately ₱17 above the preferred ₱945 MOS reference;
  • but it remained approximately ₱33 below the ₱995 estimated fair value.

The purchase was therefore not made above our valuation of the company.

It was a valuation-supported transaction completed slightly above the preferred 5% margin-of-safety threshold.

That was why the Journal entry described the execution as a limited deviation from the preferred capital-deployment price—not as a violation of the valuation framework.

The updated valuation does not erase that conclusion.

It strengthens it.

After incorporating the audited 2021–2025 record and the company’s first-half 2026 results, we believe our previous framework placed substantial emphasis on downside protection but did not yet fully capture the probability of continued operating strength, terminal maturation, and successful expansion.

ICT has since given us more evidence.

The company did not merely preserve the operating base on which the original valuation was built.

It expanded it.


The Historical Foundation of the Valuation

Our updated valuation does not begin with one strong quarter.

It begins with five audited years showing how ICTSI developed from a post-pandemic recovery story into a larger and more profitable global terminal platform.

2021: The recovery became a stronger operating base

In 2021, ICTSI handled approximately 11.16 million TEUs and generated about US$1.87 billion in gross revenue.

The company produced approximately US$947 million in operating cash flow, while capital expenditures were approximately US$165 million.

That year established an important starting point.

ICTSI had not merely survived the disruption to global trade. Its terminals remained operational, collections remained resilient, and the business emerged with a stronger cash-generating platform.

2022: The growth continued

In 2022, gross revenue increased to approximately US$2.24 billion.

EBITDA reached approximately US$1.41 billion, while attributable net income rose to approximately US$618 million. Operating cash flow increased to around US$1.28 billion, even as capital expenditure expanded to approximately US$386 million.

The significance of 2022 was straightforward:

The 2021 improvement was not merely a temporary rebound.

The business continued to scale.

2023: The network remained strong despite a reported earnings setback

In 2023, revenue still increased to approximately US$2.39 billion, while EBITDA rose to approximately US$1.51 billion.

Reported attributable net income declined, largely because the company recognized significant impairment charges, including the remaining exposure related to Sudan.

Operating cash flow nevertheless remained strong at approximately US$1.30 billion.

This distinction matters.

The 2023 result did not indicate a collapse in ICTSI’s operating platform. It showed that even while reported earnings absorbed a major nonrecurring charge, the terminal network continued producing revenue, EBITDA, and operating cash.

2024: ICTSI moved into a higher earnings range

In 2024, gross revenue increased to approximately US$2.74 billion, EBITDA climbed to approximately US$1.78 billion, and attributable net income rebounded to around US$850 million.

Operating cash flow expanded to approximately US$1.58 billion, while the company continued investing in terminal capacity, equipment, and infrastructure.

ICTSI was not merely earning more.

It was preparing the platform to earn more in the future.

2025: The business reached another level

In 2025, gross revenue reached approximately US$3.23 billion, EBITDA increased to approximately US$2.14 billion, and attributable net income rose to approximately US$1.05 billion.

Throughput increased to approximately 14.50 million TEUs, compared with 11.16 million TEUs in 2021.

By early 2026, ICTSI was involved in 34 terminal operations across 20 countries. Its portfolio included new operations and long-term concession extensions that expanded both its geographical reach and the future duration of its cash-generating assets.

From 2021 to 2025, ICTSI delivered approximate compound annual growth of:

  • 14.7% in revenue
  • 17.1% in EBITDA
  • 6.8% in throughput

The difference between physical throughput growth and financial growth is notable.

ICTSI did not depend on container volume alone.

Its results also benefited from:

  • tariff adjustments;
  • favorable cargo and container mix;
  • ancillary services;
  • improving terminal utilization;
  • operating efficiencies;
  • portfolio additions;
  • and the gradual maturation of earlier investments.

That is the historical foundation of our upside view.


The First-Half 2026 Confirmation

The first half of 2026 gave us further evidence that the larger 2025 earnings base was not an endpoint.

For the six months ended June 30, 2026, ICTSI reported:

  • throughput of approximately 8.12 million TEUs, up 16%;
  • port revenues of approximately US$1.92 billion, up 27%;
  • EBITDA of approximately US$1.23 billion, up 24%;
  • attributable net income of approximately US$590 million, up 22%;
  • and recurring attributable net income of approximately US$605 million, up 25% after excluding the Yantai disposal charge.

Diluted earnings per share increased by 23% to approximately US$0.289.

The growth was supported by the contribution of two newer operations:

  • Durban Gateway Terminal in South Africa;
  • and Batu Ampar Container Terminal in Indonesia.

The company also benefited from improved trade activity in Asia and the Americas, favorable container mix, tariff adjustments, ancillary-service income, and favorable translation effects in several operating currencies.

Even after excluding new and discontinued operations, consolidated revenue and EBITDA would each have increased by approximately 18%.

That is one of the most important readings in the update.

The headline growth was not based only on acquisitions.

The established terminal portfolio remained strong.


Why ICT Is Our Core Anchor Holding

ICT was not selected as the MH 2.0 Core Anchor because it was risk-free.

No equity position is.

It was selected because the business has repeatedly demonstrated the qualities we want at the center of the portfolio:

  • durable operating cash flow;
  • long-term concessions;
  • leading positions in many of its markets;
  • diversified geographic exposure;
  • destination-based gateway cargo;
  • strong operating margins;
  • continuing expansion opportunities;
  • and an established record of improving terminal performance.

As of early 2026, ICTSI’s concessions had an average remaining life of approximately 22 years. Its terminals operate across multiple regions, and no single customer contributed more than 10% of consolidated revenue in 2025.

This structure does not eliminate volatility.

It does, however, strengthen the probability that temporary weakness in one terminal, one region, or one trade route can be absorbed by the broader portfolio.

That resilience is part of the value.

It is also why we are prepared to accept measured upside risk in ICT.

For an ordinary holding, we may demand a deeply conservative valuation before committing capital.

For our Core Anchor, we must also recognize the risk of being too conservative and remaining underexposed to the strongest compounding engine in the portfolio.


Why We Continue to Use FCFF

We continue to use Free Cash Flow to the Firm, or FCFF, as our principal valuation method.

ICTSI is capital intensive.

Its business depends on:

  • concession rights;
  • terminal equipment;
  • civil works;
  • expansion projects;
  • leases;
  • debt financing;
  • and continuing reinvestment.

A simple earnings multiple may overlook the amount of capital required to maintain and expand the network.

A dividend model would also understate value because ICTSI retains and reinvests a substantial portion of its cash generation.

FCFF allows us to value the operating business before determining how that value is divided among lenders, lessors, concession counterparties, minority owners, and common shareholders.

Our valuation therefore considers both sides of the ICT story:

the cash-generating power of the terminal network and the capital structure supporting its growth.


Normalized FCFF Base

ICTSI produced approximately US$1.023 billion in operating cash flow during the first half of 2026.

Capital expenditures for the same period were approximately US$320 million, excluding capitalized borrowing costs.

A simple annualization of the first-half cash surplus would produce an aggressive result.

Instead, we use a normalized starting FCFF of:

US$1.40 billion

This estimate is supported by:

  • the progression of operating cash flow from 2021 through 2025;
  • the higher 2025 earnings base;
  • the first-half 2026 cash-generation run rate;
  • contributions from newer terminals;
  • and the continuing strength of the established portfolio.

At the same time, the normalized figure leaves room for:

  • integration costs;
  • continuing terminal investments;
  • uneven contributions from newly acquired operations;
  • and the timing differences between capital deployment and project maturity.

This is not our highest imaginable cash-flow estimate.

It is the operating base we believe can reasonably support an upside-oriented but still governed valuation.


Forecast Assumptions

Five-Year Explicit Growth

We use a five-year FCFF growth path of:

  • Year 1: 8%
  • Year 2: 7%
  • Year 3: 6%
  • Year 4: 5%
  • Year 5: 4%

These assumptions are substantially lower than ICTSI’s recent reported growth rates.

That is deliberate.

We expect the business to continue expanding, but we do not extend the first-half 2026 growth rate mechanically across the entire forecast period.

The tapered growth path assumes that:

  • newer terminals continue integrating;
  • existing terminals preserve their operating strength;
  • expansion projects gradually contribute;
  • tariffs and ancillary services support revenue;
  • and growth moderates as the business becomes larger.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital

Our base-case WACC remains:

8.65%

This rate reflects both the strengths and exposures of the business.

ICTSI benefits from long-term concessions, durable gateway demand, high operating margins, and a diversified global footprint.

It is also exposed to leverage, currencies, regulations, concession terms, and emerging-market conditions.

The 8.65% WACC therefore remains our consolidated valuation rate.

Terminal Growth

For our updated Core Anchor valuation, we use:

5.00% terminal growth

This is an upside-oriented assumption.

We consider it justifiable for ICT because its long-term cash flows can benefit from:

  • emerging-market economic growth;
  • continued global containerized trade;
  • tariff adjustments;
  • inflation-linked pricing effects;
  • ancillary-service expansion;
  • long concession durations;
  • terminal capacity additions;
  • and the company’s demonstrated ability to acquire, integrate, and improve port operations.

We are not presenting 5% terminal growth as a neutral assumption for every company.

It is our upside-biased Core Anchor case for ICTSI.

That distinction is intentional.

We believe the probability of ICT continuing to expand its long-term cash-generating capacity is greater than the probability that the business permanently settles into the lower end of our valuation outcomes.


Enterprise-to-Equity Adjustments

As of June 30, 2026, ICTSI reported approximately:

  • US$855 million in cash and cash equivalents;
  • US$3.37 billion in current and long-term borrowings;
  • US$781 million in concession-right obligations;
  • US$2.43 billion in lease liabilities;
  • and US$608 million in non-controlling interests.

We deduct the debt-like claims and non-controlling interests, then add available cash.

We use approximately 2.019 billion outstanding common shares as of June 30, 2026.

This keeps the upside valuation disciplined.

We are giving greater probability weight to future growth, but we are not ignoring the claims that sit ahead of common shareholders.


Updated ICT Value

Using:

  • normalized FCFF of approximately US$1.40 billion;
  • five-year FCFF growth of 8%, 7%, 6%, 5%, and 4%;
  • WACC of 8.65%;
  • terminal growth of 5%;
  • the updated enterprise-to-equity adjustments;
  • approximately 2.019 billion common shares;
  • and our USD/PHP conversion assumption;

our estimated updated ICT value is approximately:

₱1,094 per share

For practical Micro Harvesting use, we round this to:

₱1,095 per share

This is our updated upside-biased Core Anchor value.

It is not the mathematical maximum produced by the model.

The highest sensitivity outcome would require combining both a lower discount rate and a high terminal-growth assumption. We do not use that result as our official value.

Instead, we retain the base WACC of 8.65% and express our upside bias through the 5% terminal-growth case.

This gives us the highest valuation we believe can be defended without stacking every favorable assumption at the same time.


Sensitivity Analysis

The sensitivity analysis shows how estimated value changes as the WACC and terminal-growth assumptions move.

At an 8.15% WACC

With 3% terminal growth, estimated value is approximately ₱784.

With 4% terminal growth, estimated value is approximately ₱979.

With 5% terminal growth, estimated value is approximately ₱1,298.

At an 8.65% WACC

With 3% terminal growth, estimated value is approximately ₱697.

With 4% terminal growth, estimated value is approximately ₱852.

With 5% terminal growth, estimated value is approximately ₱1,094.

At a 9.15% WACC

With 3% terminal growth, estimated value is approximately ₱624.

With 4% terminal growth, estimated value is approximately ₱751.

With 5% terminal growth, estimated value is approximately ₱939.

The complete sensitivity range is therefore approximately:

₱624 to ₱1,298 per share

This is not our accumulation range.

It is a map of the valuation outcomes produced by different views of risk and long-term growth.

The lower values represent more conservative combinations.

The upper values represent stronger confidence in ICTSI’s growth durability and a lower required return.

Our official updated value of ₱1,095 is located in the upside portion of the range, but it does not rely on the lowest WACC.

We retain a normal discount rate and assign greater probability to the company’s long-term growth case.

That is how we express our upside bias without abandoning valuation governance.


Margin-of-Safety References

Using the updated ICT value of ₱1,095, the margin-of-safety references are:

  • No MOS: approximately ₱1,095
  • 5% MOS: approximately ₱1,040
  • 10% MOS: approximately ₱986
  • 15% MOS: approximately ₱931
  • 20% MOS: approximately ₱876
  • 25% MOS: approximately ₱821

For practical execution, we round these to:

Updated ICT Value: approximately ₱1,095

Ordinary MOS Buy-Below: approximately ₱1,040

Preferred 10% MOS Reference: approximately ₱985

15% MOS Reference: approximately ₱930

20% MOS Reference: approximately ₱875

These references allow us to remain aggressive without removing price discipline.

Our upside bias is already expressed in the valuation.

The margin of safety then protects us from estimation error, execution risk, and short-term uncertainty.


Where the MH Operator Journal Entry Now Stands

The MH Operator Journal recorded a consolidated purchase of 120 shares at ₱962.

The transaction had two purposes:

  • 50 shares completed the roundtrip and restored our anchor inventory;
  • 70 shares were classified as rotational trading shares.

Under the previous valuation, ₱962 was below the ₱995 fair value but slightly above the ₱945 MOS buy-below.

Under the updated value of ₱1,095, the same execution price represents an estimated discount of approximately:

12.1%

The transaction can therefore now be described as:

a BRS-supported and updated-valuation-qualified accumulation completed at an estimated margin of safety of approximately 12%.

This does not rewrite the original decision.

At the time of execution, the applicable public reference remained the old valuation. The Journal correctly disclosed the small deviation from the preferred ₱945 price.

The updated valuation simply incorporates stronger subsequent evidence and shows that the economic quality of the transaction was better than the previous model could yet demonstrate.


Where Our Existing Position Now Stands

Our broker-reported ICT average is approximately:

₱973.3866

Relative to the updated ₱1,095 value, this represents an estimated margin of safety of approximately:

11.1%

Our RTS-specific net average is approximately:

₱964.8379

Relative to the updated value, this represents an estimated margin of safety of approximately:

11.9%

Both averages remain below our preferred 10% MOS reference of approximately ₱985.

This is an important result.

Our existing ICT inventory is not merely below the updated fair value.

It remains within the updated 10% MOS area.

That strengthens the position of ICT as the MH 2.0 Core Anchor and supports our decision to retain meaningful exposure to the company’s long-term growth.


Completing the ICT Allocation

Our intended ICT position is:

Anchor Shares: 500

Rotational Trading Shares: 100

Total Allocation: 600 shares

Our current position is 570 shares.

The earlier Journal entry reserved the remaining 30 shares for ₱945 or better.

That price remains highly attractive under the updated framework. At ₱945, the discount to the updated ₱1,095 value would be approximately 13.7%.

However, ₱945 no longer needs to be treated as the only permissible accumulation price.

Under the updated valuation:

  • purchases at ₱1,040 or lower are MOS-aware;
  • purchases at ₱985 or lower reach our preferred 10% MOS threshold;
  • purchases near ₱945 provide a stronger discount;
  • purchases near ₱930 or lower approach a 15% margin of safety.

For the remaining 30 shares, we therefore retain the right to complete the allocation at ₱1,040 or lower, while preferring ₱985 or better.

Permission is not obligation.

The actual execution must still satisfy the approved technical setup, capital-allocation rules, and overall portfolio conditions.

But valuation is no longer the reason to remain unnecessarily underallocated.


The Forward-Looking Case

The central question is no longer whether ICTSI has a strong business.

The historical results have already answered that.

The more relevant question is what the company can become as the present expansion cycle matures.

ICTSI entered 2026 with:

  • a larger global terminal network;
  • new operations in strategic markets;
  • extended concessions;
  • continuing investments in capacity;
  • strong established-terminal margins;
  • and an expanding base of operating cash flow.

Its 2026 capital program is intended to support expansion at terminals in Mexico, the Philippines, Brazil, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Honduras, Australia, and Ecuador.

Those investments are not guaranteed to produce immediate returns.

But ICTSI has already demonstrated the operating capability to acquire, rehabilitate, expand, and improve terminals across different markets.

That track record matters.

The current capital cycle should not be viewed only as cash leaving the business.

It is also capital being positioned to generate future volume, revenues, tariffs, services, and operating cash flows.

Our valuation gives greater probability weight to that outcome.


What This Updated Valuation Means for MH 2.0

Our updated stance is positive, but not careless.

We are not removing the margin of safety.

We are not ignoring debt, leases, concessions, geopolitical exposure, or execution risk.

Those matters will be addressed directly in the updated ICT Risk Management post.

For this valuation, our judgment is that ICTSI’s strength, resilience, global diversification, and demonstrated ability to grow deserve greater weight than they received in our earlier conservative framework.

The updated value of ₱1,095 expresses that judgment.

For MH 2.0:

  • ICT remains the Core Anchor Holding;
  • the existing position remains valuation-supported;
  • our current averages remain within the updated 10% MOS area;
  • the ₱962 Journal execution is now fully MOS-qualified;
  • and the remaining allocation may be completed within the updated buy-below framework when an approved technical setup appears.

This is not aggression without governance.

It is conviction supported by valuation.


Final Valuation Reading

Our updated ICT value as of August 5, 2026 is:

₱1,095 per share

Our ordinary MOS-aware buy-below price is:

₱1,040 per share

Our preferred 10% MOS reference is:

₱985 per share

Our stronger accumulation references are:

  • ₱930 at approximately 15% MOS
  • ₱875 at approximately 20% MOS

The previous ₱995 fair value and ₱945 buy-below framework helped guide the rebuilding of our position.

The updated framework now reflects a broader and stronger body of evidence.

ICTSI has grown through different market environments.

It has absorbed setbacks, expanded its network, improved cash generation, entered new markets, and continued investing for the next stage of growth.

That is why ICT is our Core Anchor.

Not because its price will always move upward.

Not because the company faces no risk.

But because its operating strength and resilience give us reason to believe that the probability of long-term upside remains greater than the probability of permanent downside.

There is risk in paying too much.

There is also risk in repeatedly undervaluing a strong business and remaining underexposed while it continues to grow.

For ICT, our updated valuation is prepared to take that upside risk—deliberately, transparently, and with a margin of safety still in place.


Valuation Snapshot

Valuation date: August 5, 2026
Historical annual reports used: 2021–2025
Latest interim data used: First Half 2026
Primary method: FCFF
Normalized FCFF: approximately US$1.40 billion
WACC: 8.65%
Terminal growth: 5.00%
Updated ICT value: approximately ₱1,095
5% MOS buy-below: approximately ₱1,040
10% MOS reference: approximately ₱985
15% MOS reference: approximately ₱930
20% MOS reference: approximately ₱875
Sensitivity range: approximately ₱624–₱1,298


Shariah Compliance Advisory (Updated Nov 26, 2025)

The PSE has confirmed that its Shariah screening program is currently paused, with no new lists to be released until their internal review is completed. Although news outlets reported quarterly updates up to mid-2025, these later lists are no longer accessible on the PSE website.

For now, the PSE’s Shariah-Compliant Securities page and all past lists have been removed from the public website. The December 24, 2024 list is the last official version in Micro Stock Trader’s possession, downloaded before the page was taken down, although other investors may still hold later copies such as the reported July 4, 2025 release.

All halal-focused strategies under Micro Stock Trader will use a conservative, self-screened approach until official guidance resumes, in shā’ Allāh.

Ang post na ito ay bahagi ng aming personal learning journey sa securities analysis at portfolio governance. Ang mga konseptong may kaugnayan sa interest-based instruments, conventional bonds, preferred shares, o iba pang financial arrangements ay binabanggit lamang bilang bahagi ng academic coverage ng module at hindi bilang rekomendasyon o endorsement.

Disclaimer

This post is for educational and documentation purposes only. It is not investment advice. Perform your own due diligence and consult qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions. All strategies, frameworks, and examples described here reflect the personal methodologies of Micro Stock Trader and are not guarantees of future performance.


Illustration of a calm, disciplined trader reviewing charts and layered ladders, symbolizing the transformation of the Board Lot Warrior ecosystem in 2025.
Micro Stock Trader Blog
Board Lot Warrior
Ang Inyong Batangueñong Retail Stock Trader

Home | About UsContact Us | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use | Disclaimer

Wednesday, August 5, 2026

MH Operator Journal Entry 5: MER Near-Lower-Band Dividend Accumulation Within the Core Margin-of-Safety Zone

HomeBoard Lot WarriorMicro HarvestingMicro Harvesting 2.0 › MH Operator Journal › MER › Journal Entry 5 › Near Lower-Band Core Margin-of-Safety Accumulation 

MER daily chart on August 4, 2026 showing near-lower-band accumulation, oversold RSI, and a 90-share MH position
Three MER purchases near the lower Bollinger Band increased the position to 90 shares while keeping deployment below half of its allocation.

👉 Explore the full Micro Harvesting 2.0 framework
👉 Start Here | CSSC Learning Series | MH Application Series | MH Operator Journal

Hindi na bumalik ang MER sa pinakamababang entry area natin na ₱454–₱462.50. Sa halip, nagpatuloy tayo sa pagbuo ng dividend position near the lower Bollinger Band at within the Core Margin-of-Safety Accumulation Zone.

Originally published: August 5, 2026 · Last updated: August 5, 2026

Links to related posts


Nilalaman

Ang Punto ng Usapan

On August 4, 2026, we completed another accumulation sequence in MER through three separate executions:

Purchase 1: 10 shares at ₱486.40
Purchase 2: 10 shares at ₱486.00
Purchase 3: 10 shares at ₱484.20

The combined transaction added:

30 shares at a gross weighted-average execution price of approximately ₱485.53

After the purchases, our official MER position became:

Number of Shares: 90
Average Price Net: ₱488.1283
Capital Deployed: approximately ₱43,931.55
MER Capital Allocation: ₱100,000
Deployment: approximately 43.93%
Remaining Allocation Capacity: approximately ₱56,068.45

The trade was not made because MER had returned to our deepest purchase prices.

It had not.

Instead, the price remained near the lower Bollinger Band and within the valuation range that we had already identified as the:

Core Margin-of-Safety Accumulation Zone


Ang Dating Paniniwala

After our August 3 purchases at ₱454 and ₱462.50, we initially considered the possibility that MER might revisit those deep-stress prices.

But the Bollinger Band structure had already begun adjusting.

The lower band moved toward the high-₱470s, while price began stabilizing above the extreme event low.

That changed the practical question.

Hindi na lamang:

Makakabalik pa kaya sa ₱454?

Mas naging relevant ang:

Should we continue building the position while MER remains near the lower band and inside the 15%–20% margin-of-safety zone?

Under the updated ₱595 fair value:

15% MOS: ₱505.75
20% MOS: ₱476.00
25% MOS: ₱446.25

Therefore, the broader exact 15%–20% MOS range is:

₱476.00–₱505.75

For practical portfolio use, we simplified its central portion to:

₱480–₱500: Core Margin-of-Safety Accumulation Zone

All three August 4 purchases were made inside that zone.


Ang Binagong Pananaw

The purchases have two valid classifications because we viewed them through two different lenses.

Technical Classification

Near-Lower-Band Dividend Accumulation

This describes where the executions occurred relative to the Bollinger Band.

Valuation Classification

Core Margin-of-Safety Accumulation

This describes where the executions occurred relative to the updated ₱595 fair value.

The technical label answers:

Where were we on the chart?

The valuation label answers:

Why was the price acceptable for ownership?

Together, the full classification becomes:

MER Near-Lower-Band Dividend Accumulation within the Core Margin-of-Safety Accumulation Zone

That is the proper characterization of Journal Entry 5.


Paano Ito Umaandar

The Three Executions

The purchases were completed as follows:

First Execution

10 shares at ₱486.40

Second Execution

10 shares at ₱486.00

These first two executions formed one complete 20-share capital block at a gross weighted-average price of:

₱486.20

Third Execution

10 shares at ₱484.20

The third purchase extended the completed block by another 10 shares as the price weakened further during the session.

Combined:

30 shares at approximately ₱485.53 gross weighted average

The gross capital used for the three purchases was:

₱14,566.00

The broker-adjusted position after fees is reflected in the official net average price of:

₱486.9657


The August 4 Closing Chart

At the close of August 4, 2026, MER recorded:

Open: ₱491.00
High: ₱502.00
Low: ₱482.00
Close: ₱485.00
Daily Change: -₱2.00 or -0.41%

The Bollinger Band readings shown on the daily chart were approximately:

Middle Band: ₱560.30
Upper Band: ₱641.80
Lower Band: ₱478.80

The closing price of ₱485 remained only:

₱6.20 above the lower Bollinger Band

That placed the stock close enough to the lower band to preserve the technical description of near-lower-band accumulation.

But the chart had not yet confirmed a trend reversal.

The MACD remained deeply negative:

MACD Line: approximately -22.5
Signal Line: approximately -11.8
Histogram: approximately -10.7

The RSI was:

24.25

This remained in deeply oversold territory.

The chart therefore showed two things at once:

  • price was attempting to stabilize near the lower Bollinger Band;
  • but bearish momentum remained strong.

This was not a confirmed recovery purchase.

It was still an accumulation during weakness.


The Valuation Reading

At the gross weighted-average execution price of approximately ₱485.53, the discount from the ₱595 updated fair value was approximately:

18.40%

That placed the combined purchase comfortably within the 15%–20% margin-of-safety range.

The individual executions also remained inside that valuation zone:

₱486.40: approximately 18.25% MOS
₱486.00: approximately 18.32% MOS
₱484.20: approximately 18.62% MOS

So even without the Bollinger Band signal, the purchases had a clear valuation basis.

The lower band improved execution.

The margin of safety justified ownership.


A Small Deviation From the Post 7 Deployment Plan

In MER Stock Study, Post 7, we proposed a staged deployment plan.

The main operating target was to build toward:

Approximately 60%–70% deployment before the dividend record date

We also preferred accumulation in complete 20-share capital blocks.

Journal Entry 5 involved a small deviation from that preferred execution structure.

The first two purchases formed one complete 20-share block.

The third 10-share purchase created an additional half-block.

So instead of stopping at 80 shares, we extended the position to:

90 shares

This was a minor operational deviation—not a breach of the capital-allocation rule.

The reason was that:

  • price remained near the lower Bollinger Band;
  • the third execution at ₱484.20 offered a slightly better price;
  • all purchases remained inside the Core Margin-of-Safety Accumulation Zone;
  • and total deployment remained below 50%.

The deviation did not exceed the approved ₱100,000 allocation.

It also did not move the position prematurely toward full deployment.

Still, it should be documented plainly:

We preferred complete 20-share blocks, but accepted an additional 10-share extension because the price remained technically and valuationally qualified.

That extension should not automatically redefine 10 shares as the new standard block.

For succeeding transactions, the preferred accumulation unit remains:

20 shares per capital block


Current Deployment Status

After Journal Entry 5:

Position: 90 shares
Average Price Net: ₱488.1282
Capital Deployed: ₱43,931.54
Deployment: 43.93%
Remaining Allocation: ₱56,068.46

This places MER near—but still below—the practical 50% deployment level that the 15%–20% MOS zone can support.

A further complete 20-share block within the same price zone would bring the position to:

110 shares

At a hypothetical price near ₱480–₱490, deployment would rise to approximately:

53%–54%

That would slightly exceed the rounded 50% intermediate target but would remain well below the full ₱100,000 ceiling.

For cleaner block discipline, we do not need to force deployment to land exactly at 50%.

The more useful principle is:

The Core Margin-of-Safety Zone can support approximately half deployment, while deeper discounts retain priority for the remaining capital.


Estimated Dividend Participation

MER’s latest declared interim cash dividend is:

₱11.758 per share

For the current 90-share position, the estimated gross dividend participation is:

₱1,058.22

This is before applicable withholding taxes and broker processing.

The dividend record date is August 28, 2026, with payment scheduled for September 23, 2026.

The position has therefore grown from a small visibility holding into a more meaningful dividend-participating position.

But the dividend was not the sole reason for buying.

The purchases were supported by:

  • updated fair value;
  • margin of safety;
  • portfolio role;
  • lower-band proximity;
  • and available capital allocation.

Journal Classification

Portfolio Journal Number: MH Operator Journal Entry 5
Subsidiary Ledger: MER
Portfolio Role: Secondary Low Volatility Dividend Harvester with Regulatory Event-Risk Overlay
Technical Setup: Near-Lower-Band Dividend Accumulation
Valuation Setup: Core Margin-of-Safety Accumulation
Execution: Three purchases totaling 30 shares
Gross Weighted-Average Price: approximately ₱485.53
Resulting Position: 90 shares
Resulting Average Price Net: ₱488.1282
Resulting Deployment: approximately 43.93%

Formal transaction description:

MER Near-Lower-Band Dividend Accumulation within the Core Margin-of-Safety Accumulation Zone


Pangwakas na Kaisipan

The lowest MER entries at ₱454 and ₱462.50 came during an exceptional price overshoot.

We could have continued waiting for those prices to return.

But the lower Bollinger Band had already adjusted toward ₱479, while MER remained inside the 15%–20% margin-of-safety range.

So we did not require the market to repeat the exact event low.

Instead, we used the price zone that the updated valuation had already established as appropriate for accumulation.

The first 20 shares at a ₱486.20 average formed a complete capital block.

The additional 10 shares at ₱484.20 were a small extension—slightly outside our preferred whole-block structure, but still within the same technical and valuation setup.

We record that deviation because MH values governance.

Hindi naman kailangang gawing malaking kasalanan ang bawat maliit na adjustment. Pero kailangang malinaw kung saan tayo lumihis at bakit natin ginawa.

After the transaction, MER reached 90 shares and approximately 43.93% deployment.

That leaves more than half of the ₱100,000 allocation available.

We have participated.

But we have not exhausted our optionality.

Journal Entry 5 did not attempt to catch the bottom. It continued building ownership where the lower Bollinger Band and the Core Margin-of-Safety Zone met.


Shariah Compliance Advisory (Updated Nov 26, 2025)

The PSE has confirmed that its Shariah screening program is currently paused, with no new lists to be released until their internal review is completed. Although news outlets reported quarterly updates up to mid-2025, these later lists are no longer accessible on the PSE website.

For now, the PSE’s Shariah-Compliant Securities page and all past lists have been removed from the public website. The December 24, 2024 list is the last official version in Micro Stock Trader’s possession, downloaded before the page was taken down, although other investors may still hold later copies such as the reported July 4, 2025 release.

All halal-focused strategies under Micro Stock Trader will use a conservative, self-screened approach until official guidance resumes, in shā’ Allāh.

Ang post na ito ay bahagi ng aming personal learning journey sa securities analysis at portfolio governance. Ang mga konseptong may kaugnayan sa interest-based instruments, conventional bonds, preferred shares, o iba pang financial arrangements ay binabanggit lamang bilang bahagi ng academic coverage ng module at hindi bilang rekomendasyon o endorsement.

Disclaimer

This post is for educational and documentation purposes only. It is not investment advice. Perform your own due diligence and consult qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions. All strategies, frameworks, and examples described here reflect the personal methodologies of Micro Stock Trader and are not guarantees of future performance.


Illustration of a calm, disciplined trader reviewing charts and layered ladders, symbolizing the transformation of the Board Lot Warrior ecosystem in 2025.
Micro Stock Trader Blog
Board Lot Warrior
Ang Inyong Batangueñong Retail Stock Trader

Home | About UsContact Us | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use | Disclaimer

GAWLOO: Ang Lugawang May Sarap ng Southeast Asia — Gawa ng Batangueñong Galing Abroad

Kung taga-Rosario, Batangas ka at nag-crave ka ng lugaw na may level-up na twist—eto na ang sagot sa panalangin ng sikmura mo: GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience.

Kung taga-Rosario, Batangas ka at nag-crave ka ng lugaw na may level-up na twist—eto na ang sagot sa panalangin ng sikmura mo: GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience.

GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience facade

📍 Matatagpuan sa V. Escaño St., Brgy. C, Rosario Batangas, si GAWLOO ay hindi lang basta kainan — isa siyang kwento ng pangarap, passion, at panlasang umikot sa Asia.


GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience Dine-In

Ang may-ari, si Jay Ubana, ay isang Batangueñong cook na nagtrabaho sa Singapore at Dubai ng 12 taon. Sa dami ng napuntahan niyang bansa—Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore—natutunan niyang i-appreciate ang iba't ibang bersyon ng congee. “Paborito talaga ng mga Pinoy ang lugaw,” wika ni Jay, “Kahit anong oras, kahit anong pakiramdam—masarap maglugaw.”

⭐ Lasa't Alaala sa Bawat Higop

Hindi lang basta lugaw, kundi southeast Asian-inspired congee na may toppings na mala-ulam sa sarap.

🍲 Seafood Gawloo at Lechon Gawloo — ang kanilang best-sellers na puwedeng pang-breakfast o pang-dinner.

🍛 Mix & Match Toppings: Tuwalya, Chicharon Bulaklak, Atay, Chicken, Fried Tokwa at iba pa.

🍗 Rice Meals tulad ng Chao Fan with Pork Siomai, Chicharon Bulaklak, o Lechon Kawali — swak sa mga ayaw ng sabaw pero gusto pa rin ng siksik sa lasa.

🧋 Drinks? May Black Gulaman at Lychee para pampawi ng uhaw habang humihigop ka ng mainit-init na lugaw.

💸 Presyo na Kayang-Kaya

Hindi mo kailangang bumyahe pa sa abroad para matikman ang ganitong congee—abot kaya lang ang Small Bowl na may 1 Topping, at kung mas gutom ka, may Large Bowl para iyo at para sa inyong lahat. Pwede ka ring magpa-top up ng 2, 3 o 4 na toppings para sa ultimate lugaw overload!

🤳 Para sa mga G na umorder online

Pwede kang magpa-deliver! Text o tawag lang sa 09397785658. Hanapin lang ang GAWLOO sa Facebook para sa menu at updates.


Sa totoo lang, sa bawat higop ng lugaw sa GAWLOO, parang may yumayakap sa’yo—maalala mo si Nanay o si Lola na nagluluto ng lugaw tuwing masama ang pakiramdam mo. Ngayon, kahit wala si Nanay sa tabi mo, may GAWLOO ka sa Rosario.

Supportahan natin ang lokal! Tikman ang lugaw na may kwento. Tikman ang GAWLOO.

Featured Post

MH Operator Journal Entry 6: ICT Liquidity-Driven Partial Release

Home › Board Lot Warrior › Micro Harvesting › Micro Harvesting 2.0 › MH Operator Journal › ICT › Journal Entry 6 › Liquidity-Driven Part...