Contents:
- Mid-Day Break Evaluation of URC (January 21, 2025) Using Our Hybrid 10-Step Strategy
- Final Mid-Day Break Evaluation
- Conclusion
Universal Robina Corporation (URC) continues to face strong selling pressure as traders navigate key support levels. In today’s mid-day session, we analyze URC’s price action using our Hybrid 10-Step Strategy to determine the best possible trading decisions.
URC intra-day chart showing support, resistance, and key decision levels for traders.
Mid-Day Break Evaluation of URC (January 21, 2025) Using Our Hybrid 10-Step Strategy
Step 1: Identifying Market State & Trend Context
- URC remains in a strong downtrend, trading well below both the 200-day MA (97.79) and 20-day MA (75.37).
- The price is testing a key support level at 67.00, but downward momentum is still present.
- Decision: SELL Bias – But watch for a potential support bounce.
Step 2: Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones
- The stock is trading below both key moving averages and within a high-risk zone near 65.50.
- Bargain price is set at 60.00, indicating a potential deeper retracement if 65.50 fails.
- Decision: HOLD (if waiting for a bounce confirmation) / SELL (if price remains weak).
Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength
- Recent red power bars indicate strong selling pressure, with high volume confirming downward momentum.
- No significant green elephant bars have emerged to confirm a reversal.
- Decision: SELL (unless strong green bars emerge near support).
Step 4: Entry Confirmation From Both Strategies
- The price is hovering near the key support level at 67.00, but there is no clear breakout above resistance.
- If a strong green candle appears, a buy can be considered.
- Decision: HOLD (for confirmation) / SELL (if price closes below support).
Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments
- The hard stop-loss is set at 65.50 to prevent excessive losses.
- If price breaches 65.50, exiting entirely is the best risk-management decision.
- Decision: SELL (if price approaches or breaks 65.50).
Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation
- The recent red bars indicate no clear color change from red to green.
- For a reversal, a strong green elephant bar near 67.00 is required.
- Decision: HOLD (if waiting for confirmation) / SELL (if continued weakness).
Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets
- If already shorting from higher levels, partial profit-taking is a reasonable strategy.
- The hard resistance is at 71.50, meaning any upward move near this level should be considered for exit.
- Decision: PARTIAL SELL (for securing gains).
Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks
- If price retests 67.00 and holds, a possible re-entry can be considered.
- If price drops below 65.50, avoid re-entering until 60.00 bargain price is tested.
- Decision: HOLD (for now), SELL if 65.50 fails.
Step 9: Tactical Position Management
- The market is still bearish, requiring careful trade management.
- Reducing position size and protecting capital is essential.
- Decision: PARTIAL SELL (for capital protection).
Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails
- If the price plunges to 60.00, a counter-trend trade can be considered.
- Until then, the overall sentiment remains bearish.
- Decision: HOLD for now, wait for further confirmation.
Final Mid-Day Break Evaluation
- HOLD: If waiting for clearer reversal confirmation.
- PARTIAL SELL: If already shorting, take partial profits.
- SELL: If price drops below 65.50 or fails to show recovery.
📌 Final Decision: HOLD / PARTIAL SELL (Monitor for price action at key levels).
Conclusion
The afternoon session will be crucial in determining whether URC can defend its 67.00 support level or if further downside awaits. Traders should remain cautious and follow key risk management strategies to protect their capital.
Execution of Our Trade Decision
Given the weakness in price action and our strict adherence to risk management, we decided to entirely exit our 300 URC shares at 65.85 before the mid-day break, as the price approached our hard stop-loss at 65.50. Unfortunately, we were slightly delayed in executing our exit, reinforcing the importance of prompt execution in risk management. This decision was made to limit potential losses and reassess the market before considering any re-entry opportunities.
Lessons Learned and Strategy Reflection
In hindsight, our 90-share purchase of URC on January 20 was a misstep, as the sell signal did not materialize strongly enough to justify entry. Following our strategy more strictly would have helped us avoid unnecessary exposure. Additionally, our January 16 exit should have been a full exit rather than a partial one, as price action has confirmed continued bearish momentum. However, these experiences serve as valuable lessons.
This marks Week 4 of testing our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy, and overall, it has proven to be an effective framework. Despite some execution errors, the strategy has provided structured guidance and risk management, keeping our trading decisions disciplined. We acknowledge our lessons and move forward with greater confidence in the system.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Related Readings
- Micro Stock Trader: Comparing the Modified 10-Step Trading Strategy vs. Retracement Trading Strategy
- Micro Stock Trader Portfolio Tracker Page
