Showing posts with label Shariah-Compliant Stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Shariah-Compliant Stocks. Show all posts

Saturday, February 1, 2025

BETA Portfolio: February 2025 Strategy and Stock Price Review Summary for 11 Shariah-Compliant Stocks

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Stock Price Review Summary for January 2025
  • February 2025 Strategy for the BETA Portfolio
  • Conclusion

Introduction

The BETA Portfolio is a carefully selected basket of 11 Shariah-compliant stocks categorized into Growth Stocks, REITs, and Dividend Stocks. As we enter February 2025, it is crucial to analyze market trends, reassess our holdings, and refine our strategy to optimize returns while managing risks.

This post provides a comprehensive review of the portfolio’s performance in January 2025, along with our updated trading strategy for February 2025 based on our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy.

As part of our ongoing refinement of the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy, we are transitioning our regular Stock Price Review to utilize the Monthly Chart instead of the Daily Chart. This shift aligns with our longer-term portfolio management approach, reducing noise from short-term fluctuations and allowing us to focus on more stable trend confirmations and strategic trade executions. With our Portfolio Value now at Php50,000.00 as of January 31, 2025, compared to Php15,000.00 on January 15, 2025, this adjustment ensures that our decisions are based on broader market movements, supporting sustainable growth as we continue the Phase 2 Live Testing of our strategy.

Stock Price Review Summary for January 2025

Growth Stocks

1. AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp. (ALLHC)

  • Final Trade Recommendation: NO TRADE
  • Next Steps: Avoid entering until stability is confirmed. Watch for support at 1.50 before considering any positions.

2. Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI)

  • Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD
  • Next Steps: Monitor for a breakout above 18.50 before adding more positions. Stop-loss set below 16.50.

3. MacroAsia Corporation (MAC)

  • Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD
  • Next Steps: Avoid adding until a breakout above 5.50 occurs. Stop-loss placed below 4.90.

4. Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE)

  • Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD
  • Next Steps: Monitor price action at 6.00 support. Avoid adding until a clear reversal is confirmed.

5. Universal Robina Corporation (URC)

  • Final Trade Recommendation: NO TRADE
  • Next Steps: The bearish trend remains strong with no confirmed support. Wait for a base formation before re-entering.

Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)

6. DDMP REIT Inc. (DDMPR)

  • Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD
  • Next Steps: Avoid new entries until price moves above 1.16. Stop-loss set at 1.00.

7. MREIT Inc. (MREIT)

  • Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD
  • Next Steps: Monitor for a breakout above 14.00 before adding more positions. Stop-loss at 12.50.

8. Premiere Island Power REIT (PREIT)

  • Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD
  • Next Steps: Watch for resistance at 2.30 before adding more positions. Stop-loss below 2.10.

9. RL Commercial REIT (RCR)

  • Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD
  • Next Steps: Wait for a breakout above 6.20 before adding positions. Stop-loss placed at 5.75.

Dividend Stocks

10. Manila Electric Company (MER)

  • Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD
  • Next Steps: Monitor for a breakout above 480 before adding new positions. Stop-loss at 420.

11. Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC)

  • Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD
  • Next Steps: Avoid new buys unless price breaks above 36.50. Stop-loss placed below 32.00.

February 2025 Strategy for the BETA Portfolio

1. No Aggressive Buying – Focus on Confirmed Trends

  • The majority of stocks are in downtrends or consolidations. No aggressive buying until clear breakouts are confirmed.
  • Key levels to watch for re-entry:
    • ATI: Buy above 18.50
    • MAC: Buy above 5.50
    • MONDE: Buy above 7.50
    • URC: Avoid until a base forms above 65.00

2. Portfolio Adjustment – Prioritize Stability

  • Prioritize defensive plays like MER and SCC, which offer dividends and relative price stability.
  • REITs (DDMPR, MREIT, PREIT, RCR) remain hold positions with no aggressive accumulation.

3. Risk Management – Stop-Loss Enforcement

  • Strict stop-loss enforcement across all positions:
    • Growth Stocks: Stop-loss range at 5-10% below current price.
    • REITs & Dividend Stocks: Stop-loss below key moving averages (e.g., 20-MA).

4. Monitor Market Sentiment & Volume

  • Watch for volume surges, especially in growth stocks, indicating institutional accumulation before entering trades.
  • Avoid stocks showing continued weakness (e.g., URC, ALLHC).

Conclusion

As we move into February 2025, the BETA Portfolio remains defensive, with a focus on risk management and strategic accumulation at confirmed breakout points. No new trades will be initiated without clear confirmations, and stop-losses will be strictly enforced to protect against unnecessary downside risk.

🚨 We remain patient, waiting for clear trend reversals before making aggressive moves. Capital preservation is our top priority this month. 🚨


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


Related Readings

at No comments:
Labels: , , , ,

Saturday, January 25, 2025

Budget Ethical Trading Account (BETA) – End of Week 4 Update (January 25, 2025)

Contents:

  • Phase 2 of Strategy Testing: Strict Execution Begins
  • 1. Portfolio Performance
  • 2. Portfolio Allocation & Capital Deployment
  • 3. Phase 2 Trading Parameters & Progress
  • 4. Market Observations & Next Steps
  • 5. Final Thoughts: The Road Ahead

Phase 2 of Strategy Testing: Strict Execution Begins

With four weeks of live testing behind us, we have formally transitioned to Phase 2 of our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy. This phase focuses on expanding our trading universe while maintaining absolute discipline—no deviations, no experimentation.

As of January 24, 2025, we have executed 22 trades, with Trade 5 of the planned 20-trade Phase 2 sequence currently underway. Despite an early drawdown, we remain committed to the systematic execution of our strategy.

Portfolio summary showing trading performance, stock allocations, and realized losses for BETA as of January 24, 2025.

Budget Ethical Trading Account (BETA) Portfolio Summary as of January 24, 2025

1. Portfolio Performance

  • Performance Score: 8.2/10 (Consistent adherence to strategy with slight early-stage drawdowns.)

  • Starting Capital for Phase 2: ₱22,200.00

  • Current Portfolio Value: ₱31,483.92

  • Realized Loss: ₱-1,516.08 (-4.82%)

  • Unrealized Loss: ₱-97.19 (-0.98%)

While the drawdown reflects the challenges of early-stage execution, it is a necessary part of refining our system and testing risk parameters. The key takeaway remains: we are following the plan exactly as designed.

2. Portfolio Allocation & Capital Deployment

  • Allocation & Deployment Score: 7.8/10 (Effective allocation with potential for further diversification.)

  • Cash Balance: 39% (Liquidity maintained for flexibility)

  • Stock Holdings:

    • Universal Robina Corporation (URC): 21%

    • RL Commercial REIT, Inc. (RCR): 23%

    • DDMP REIT Inc. (DDMPR): 10%

    • Premiere Island Power REIT Corporation (PREIT): 7%

    • Other Stocks (MONDE, ALLHC, ATI): 0%

The allocation reflects our move toward broader diversification among Shariah-compliant stocks and REITs, in line with our Phase 2 objective of testing the strategy across multiple tickers.

3. Phase 2 Trading Parameters & Progress

  • Trading Execution Score: 8.7/10 (Excellent compliance with entry and exit rules.)

  • Objective: Execute 20 trades with strict adherence to the strategy.

  • Key Holdings at Phase 2 Entry:

    • URC: 50 shares

    • RCR: 1,000 shares

  • Number of Trades Executed in Phase 2: 4/20 completed

We are sticking to our strategy without deviation, ensuring every trade aligns with our retracement-based entry zones, stop-loss adjustments, and position sizing rules.

4. Market Observations & Next Steps

  • Market Adaptation & Strategy Adjustment Score: 8.1/10 (Good trade adjustments with minimal impact from market fluctuations.)

  • Drawdown Management: While early results show a 4.82% realized loss, unrealized losses remain minimal, reinforcing the importance of risk control.

  • Trade Adjustments:

    • URC continues to be a core position, and we will assess further retracements for potential reinforcement.

    • RCR remains a high-priority holding due to its technical setup and alignment with the Modified 10-Step Trading Strategy.

    • DDMPR and PREIT holdings will be monitored for additional scaling opportunities.

  • Upcoming Trades: The next batch of trades will further diversify the portfolio, keeping strict adherence to the system’s rules.

5. Final Thoughts: The Road Ahead

Overall Execution & Strategy Adherence Score: 8.4/10 (Steady progression with disciplined execution and adaptability.)

Phase 1 validated our strategy's framework and risk controls, even as minor missteps shaped our adjustments. Now, Phase 2 is fully operational, and the next 16 trades will determine how effectively our strategy performs across different market conditions.

Our focus remains on data-driven execution, ensuring that each trade strictly follows the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy. We will continue monitoring, refining, and adapting while maintaining a disciplined, ethical trading approach.

With 4 of the planned 20 trades completed, we are fully committed to seeing this phase through with precision and discipline. The next update will provide insights into how our strategy performs as we progress through the remainder of Phase 2.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


Related Readings

at No comments:
Labels: , , , ,

Tuesday, January 21, 2025

URC Closing Analysis – January 21, 2025

Contents:

  • Bearish Sentiment Prevails, Yet We Took a Small Contrarian Trade – Here’s Why
  • Evaluation of URC Closing Chart (January 21, 2025) Using Our Hybrid 10-Step Strategy
  • Final Trading Recommendation
  • The Questionable Yet Justifiable 50-Share Purchase at 65.95
  • Market Recap & URC Trade Evaluation
  • Transition to Phase 2: Expanding Our Trading Universe
  • Final Thoughts

Bearish Sentiment Prevails, Yet We Took a Small Contrarian Trade – Here’s Why

Today’s trading session saw URC closing at 66.00, maintaining its position within the 33% Retracement Continuation Zone—a clear indication that bearish momentum remains strong. Our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy and Percentage Retracement Trading Strategy both suggested that the downtrend was intact, advising traders to sell or hold rather than buy.

URC stock closing chart with final Phase 1 trading decisions and transition to Phase 2 testing.

URC stock closing analysis for January 21, 2025, marking the end of Phase 1 strategy testing.


Evaluation of URC Closing Chart (January 21, 2025) Using Our Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Step 1: Identifying Market State & Trend Context

  • The URC closing price of 66.00 remains within the 33% Retracement Continuation Zone, confirming that bearish sentiment is still dominant.
  • Price remains below both key moving averages (200-MA at 97.79, 20-MA at 75.40), reinforcing a strong downtrend.
  • Decision: SELL bias remains intact.

Step 2: Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones

  • Price is hovering below the key support of 67.00 and near the hard stop-loss level of 65.50.
  • The retracement sweet spots at 67.85 and 68.75 suggest that the stock failed to reclaim these levels, further solidifying bearish strength.
  • Decision: HOLD / SELL if further weakness persists.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength

  • The red power bars remain dominant, with today's candle closing lower than the previous day.
  • Volume remains elevated at 4.363M, suggesting continued selling pressure.
  • Decision: SELL bias confirmed unless a strong reversal pattern emerges.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation From Both Strategies

  • There was no confirmed breakout above key resistance, with price struggling near the retracement zones.
  • Decision: SELL bias holds.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

  • The hard stop-loss remains at 65.50, and the stock barely stayed above it at closing.
  • Our earlier full exit at 65.85 was a defensive move to prevent further downside exposure.
  • Decision: EXIT if price fails to reclaim support levels.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

  • The absence of a strong green power bar means no clear shift in momentum.
  • Decision: HOLD until reversal confirmation.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

  • If shorting, partial profit-taking near 66.00 could be considered as a tactical move.
  • Decision: PARTIAL SELL recommended.

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

  • Since 67.00 remains a broken support, re-entry is highly speculative.
  • Decision: HOLD, as risk remains elevated.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

  • The 33% Retracement Continuation Zone signals further downside potential.
  • Decision: HOLD / SELL based on further price movement.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

  • Given that price is still within the bearish zone, counter-trend trades are risky and premature.
  • Decision: HOLD / SELL unless a major reversal appears.

Final Trading Recommendation

  • HOLD / SELL: The bearish trend remains in control, and buyers need confirmation before considering entries.
  • Monitor retracement levels: If price fails to reclaim 67.00, downside pressure will likely continue.

This concludes Week 4 of testing our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy—and despite a few questionable trades, the strategy has remained effective and reliable in guiding our decisions.

The Questionable Yet Justifiable 50-Share Purchase at 65.95

Despite all signals pointing towards continued bearish momentum, we made a 50-share purchase at 65.95 just after the resumption of afternoon trading—even after fully exiting at 65.85 before the mid-day break.

So, why would we make a move that contradicts both our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy and the Percentage Retracement Trading Strategy?

While the decision lacked technical justification, we can stretch an explanation based on the following perspectives:

  1. Strategic Experimentation with Controlled Risk

    • We may have taken the position to test market reaction at a key psychological zone (near 65.50-66.00).
    • The trade involved only 50 shares, making it a low-risk probe entry rather than a full commitment.

  2. Emotional Bias and Market Psychology

    • Sometimes, market instinct kicks in. A sense of overextension on the downside might have influenced the trade.
    • A possible overreaction in price action after the sharp drop could have hinted at a minor bounce attempt.

  3. Reassessing Market Momentum in Real Time

    • While our strategies signaled a continuation of the downtrend, intraday market movements sometimes present temporary strength unseen in daily charts.
    • A quick position might have been taken to assess price responsiveness at this level.

  4. A Learning Opportunity for Our Trading Strategy

    • This move allows us to test the effectiveness of our retracement rules in real time.
    • Even flawed decisions contribute to refining our approach for future trades.

Market Recap & URC Trade Evaluation

URC’s Closing Price & Technical Context

  • Closing Price: 66.00, within the 33% Retracement Continuation Zone—confirming persistent bearish momentum.

  • Hard Stop-Loss Level: 65.50, which remains a critical risk level.

  • Resistance Levels: 67.85 and 68.75, which the stock failed to reclaim.

  • Volume: 4.363M, showing continued selling pressure.

Trade Execution Summary

  1. We fully exited 300 URC shares at 65.85 before the mid-day break to protect our capital.

  2. We later purchased 50 shares at 65.95 after the afternoon session resumed.

    • This went against our strategy’s recommendation, as the bearish sentiment remained intact.

    • However, the small size of the trade and market conditions made it a calculated risk.

    • In hindsight, we acknowledge that strict adherence to our system should have prevailed.

Lessons & Strategy Adjustments

  • We should have followed our strategy without deviation.

  • Market instinct must never override structured risk management.

  • Controlled-risk testing helped refine our approach, but Phase 2 will be fully disciplined.

Transition to Phase 2: Expanding Our Trading Universe

With four weeks of testing behind us, we are confident in the effectiveness of our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy. As we move forward into Phase 2, our focus shifts to applying the strategy across multiple Shariah-compliant stocks with absolute discipline—no deviations, no experimentation.

Phase 2 Trading Parameters

✅ Starting Capital: ₱22,200.00
✅ Stock Holdings: 1,000 RCR shares, 50 URC shares
✅ Current Portfolio Status: -₱1,516.07 loss
✅ Objective: Execute 20 trades following the strategy with precision.
✅ Key Principle: Strict adherence to the system—trade exactly as the strategy dictates.

Final Thoughts

Phase 1 of our testing process has proven our strategy’s reliability, and despite minor missteps, it has provided structured guidance in making disciplined trade decisions. Now, Phase 2 begins, and we are excited to see how our strategy performs across multiple Shariah-compliant stocks.

After 20 fully disciplined trades, we will assess our results and refine our approach as necessary. The next chapter of our trading journey starts now.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


Related Readings

at No comments:
Labels: , , , ,
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)

Featured Post

Stock Price Review: Wilcon Depot Inc. (WLCON) Daily Chart as of June 27, 2025 (Mid-Day) – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

WLCON breaks above ₱9.00 in mid-day trade on June 27, 2025. Hybrid 10-Step Strategy confirms hold with trailing stop and partial exit . 📅 P...