Matapos suriin ang fundamentals at daily chart ng TEL, mas malinaw na ngayon kung bakit hindi sapat ang isang valuation formula lamang.
The business remains cash-generative and dividend-capable, while the chart shows a credible recovery. But at the current price location, TEL appears close to fair value—not yet sufficiently discounted for aggressive accumulation.
Originally published: July 27, 2026 · Last updated: July 27, 2026
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Ang Punto ng Usapan
Ang TEL ay isa sa pinakamalaking carryover positions ng ating Micro Harvesting portfolio.
Hawak natin ang:
- 200 anchor shares
- Average net cost of ₱1,277.4743 per share
- Capital allocation of ₱330,000
- Deployment of approximately 77%
Kasama na sa average cost ang estimated 0.2950% purchase costs.
Dahil malaki ang capital exposure at mahalaga ang TEL sa dividend-harvesting side ng portfolio, hindi sapat ang simpleng tanong na:
Tumataas ba o bumababa ang presyo?
Mas mahalagang itanong:
Magkano ang reasonable value ng TEL, at sa anong presyo tayo may sapat na allowance for error?
Noong una nating ginawa ang valuation, stand-alone exercise pa ito. Ngayon, nakumpleto na rin natin ang initial Fundamental Analysis at Technical Analysis.
Mas buo na ang larawan.
Fundamentally, TEL remains a mature and highly cash-generative telecom infrastructure company. Revenue, service income, and EBITDA remain resilient. Capex has declined from the peak investment cycle, and the regular dividend still appears supportable.
Pero mabigat ang debt.
Technically, the stock has recovered above a rising SMA-50 and maintains bullish MACD momentum. Pero price remains in the EMA-200 decision zone, volume is below average, and the TMA Gate Score of 6 gives only a Technical Test Probe—not full BUY/ADD permission.
Ibig sabihin, hindi tayo dapat tumingin sa valuation na parang hiwalay sa business quality at chart location.
The fair value must make sense in all three dimensions:
- negosyo;
- presyo;
- at portfolio role.
Ang Dating Paniniwala
Dati, madaling isipin na sapat nang tingnan ang dividend yield ng TEL.
May logic naman iyon.
Kung dividend harvester ang papel nito sa portfolio, natural na itanong:
Magkano ang annual dividend, at anong yield ang makukuha natin sa kasalukuyang presyo?
Simple iyon. Madaling maintindihan. At directly connected sa cash na natatanggap ng shareholder.
Pero hindi sapat.
Una, hindi lahat ng historical dividends ay sustainable. Nagkaroon ng special dividends noong 2022 at 2023, pero hindi natin puwedeng gawing permanenteng assumption ang nonrecurring distributions.
Ikalawa, malaking bahagi ng TEL cash flow ang kailangang ibalik sa network through capital expenditures.
Telecom infrastructure requires continuous spending on:
- fiber;
- mobile capacity;
- network resilience;
- international connectivity;
- cloud infrastructure;
- cybersecurity;
- at data centers.
Ikatlo, mataas ang leverage.
A company may produce substantial EBITDA and still leave less value for common shareholders after debt, interest, taxes, and capex are considered.
At ikaapat, valuation models are highly sensitive to assumptions.
A small change in:
- discount rate;
- terminal growth;
- required dividend yield;
- or normalized capex
can materially change the estimated fair value.
Kaya hindi puwedeng kumuha lamang ng isang number, bawasan ng 5%, at tawagin agad iyong Margin of Safety.
Sensitivity analysis must come first.
Ang Binagong Pananaw
Matapos ang Fundamental Analysis at Technical Analysis, mas malinaw na kung paano natin dapat i-value ang TEL.
Fundamentally, the business remains qualified for its role as a Low Volatility Dividend Harvester.
PLDT’s consolidated revenues increased from approximately ₱181.00 billion in 2020 to ₱218.39 billion in 2025, while service revenues rose to approximately ₱212.19 billion. EBITDA reached about ₱111.23 billion, while telco core income remained near ₱33.93 billion.
Q1 2026 revenues reached ₱56.51 billion, up 2% year on year. EBITDA increased to ₱28.29 billion, while telco core income declined slightly to ₱8.58 billion.
That combination tells us:
- the operating engine is still strong;
- the dividend base remains largely intact;
- but earnings growth is not accelerating rapidly.
PLDT also maintains a regular dividend policy of approximately 60% of telco core earnings per share, subject to capex, investment requirements, cash, and gearing levels.
Technically, TEL is not in a weak downtrend anymore.
As of July 27, 2026 at 12:00 PM:
- price was around ₱1,230;
- the rising SMA-50 was approximately ₱1,168;
- the EMA-200 ribbon was approximately ₱1,231 to ₱1,256;
- MACD was above signal and zero;
- RSI stood near 59;
- and volume was only about 76% of its 50-day average.
The TMA Gate Score was: 6
Mechanical decision: TECHNICAL TEST PROBE
So the chart is constructive—but unfinished.
This leads us to a more disciplined valuation question:
Is the current price merely technically improving, or is it also economically discounted?
The answer, based on our sensitivity-tested valuation, is:
TEL is close to fair value, but not yet at our preferred Margin of Safety.
Paano Ito Umaandar
Sustainable dividend muna
We separated regular dividends from special dividends.
TEL’s regular dividend per share increased broadly from:
- ₱77 in 2020
- ₱82 in 2021
- ₱89 in 2022
- ₱94 in 2023
- ₱96 in 2024
- around ₱95 in 2025
The special dividends paid in 2022 and 2023 were excluded from the sustainable dividend base.
Using Q1 2026 telco core income of approximately ₱8.578 billion and annualizing it mechanically:
Dividing this by approximately 216.06 million common shares gives annualized telco core EPS of around:
Applying the 60% regular dividend policy:
Our base sustainable dividend is therefore:
This is close to the regular dividend paid in 2025, so the estimate is not aggressive.
Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model
For the DDM base case, we used:
- Sustainable DPS: ₱95.29
- Explicit dividend growth: 2%
- Five-year explicit forecast period
- Cost of equity: approximately 13.34%
- Terminal growth: 3%
The cost of equity is relatively high because TEL combines Philippine equity-market risk with substantial financial leverage.
The resulting two-stage DDM value was:
This is the most conservative of the three valuation lenses.
The DDM tells us that TEL’s dividend is attractive as current income, but slow long-term dividend growth limits intrinsic value when the required equity return is above 13%.
In plain language:
A good dividend does not automatically mean a high fair value when investors demand a high return.
Dividend-yield valuation
Because TEL is primarily held as a Low Volatility Dividend Harvester, we also valued it based on required dividend yield.
Using sustainable DPS of ₱95.29:
At an 8.5% required yield:
At a 7.5% required yield:
At a 6.5% required yield:
Our base dividend-yield value is:
This model is the most directly aligned with TEL’s role in the MH portfolio.
But it also depends heavily on the yield demanded by the market.
If interest rates rise or investors demand more compensation for risk, the implied price falls even if the dividend remains unchanged.
Normalized cash FCFF
We did not use reported EBITDA as though it were free cash flow.
PLDT itself notes that EBITDA excludes:
- depreciation and amortization;
- financing costs;
- taxes;
- capital expenditures;
- debt repayments;
- and other major cash uses.
For the FCFF analysis, we focused on:
Reported capex declined from approximately:
- ₱96.81 billion in 2022
- ₱85.08 billion in 2023
- ₱78.25 billion in 2024
- ₱60.34 billion in 2025
That decline is important.
The Fundamental Analysis showed that PLDT appears to be moving away from peak capex, although it remains a structurally capital-intensive business.
We used the following sustainable cash-capex scenarios:
- Conservative: ₱65 billion
- Base: ₱60 billion
- Optimistic: ₱55 billion
Using the trailing cash-flow bridge through Q1 2026, our normalized cash FCFF base was approximately:
With a calculated WACC of approximately 8.45%, rounded to 8.4%, the base FCFF equity value was:
This is much higher than the DDM result.
The reason is straightforward.
The FCFF model values the whole operating business before deciding how much cash is currently distributed as dividends.
But this higher result must be treated cautiously because TEL carries substantial net debt and because much of the FCFF value comes from terminal assumptions.
Why the FCFF value cannot stand alone
The Fundamental Analysis identified debt as TEL’s largest structural weakness.
Net debt increased to approximately ₱284.69 billion in 2025.
That debt matters because:
- it absorbs part of enterprise value;
- it creates interest and refinancing risk;
- it constrains dividend flexibility;
- and it increases sensitivity to discount-rate assumptions.
So even if the operating business appears highly valuable under FCFF, common shareholders do not own that enterprise value free and clear.
The debt holders have a prior economic claim.
That is why we gave FCFF only a 20% weight in the final triangulation.
Sensitivity Analysis Before Margin of Safety
This was the important correction to our original process.
A single-point valuation is not enough.
Before applying a 5% Margin of Safety, we tested how the valuation moves when the key assumptions change.
DDM sensitivity
We varied:
- Cost of equity from 12.0% to 14.5%
- Terminal growth from 1.0% to 5.0%
The resulting DDM range was approximately:
The base case remained:
The range shows that the DDM is particularly sensitive to the spread between the required equity return and terminal dividend growth.
Dividend-yield sensitivity
We varied:
- Sustainable DPS from approximately ₱88.59 to ₱101.87
- Required yield from 6.5% to 9.5%
The resulting range was approximately:
The base case remained:
This model confirms that TEL’s fair value is highly dependent on what yield investors require from a mature, leveraged telecom company.
FCFF sensitivity
We varied:
- WACC from 7.5% to 9.5%
- Terminal growth from 1.0% to 5.0%
The FCFF model produced the widest range.
This was expected.
A large portion of the FCFF result comes from terminal value. When WACC moves closer to terminal growth, the estimated value can rise dramatically.
The sensitivity analysis therefore warned us against using the optimistic FCFF result as a public target price.
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic Scenarios
After testing the three models individually, we built consolidated valuation scenarios.
We used these MH-specific weights:
- Two-Stage DDM: 50%
- Dividend-Yield Valuation: 30%
- Normalized Cash FCFF: 20%
The higher combined weight on dividend-based methods reflects TEL’s actual portfolio role.
Conservative Scenario
- DDM: approximately ₱741
- Dividend-yield value: approximately ₱1,042
- FCFF: approximately ₱946
Weighted value:
This represents a stressed environment with:
- higher discount rates;
- lower growth;
- lower normalized dividend;
- and weaker cash-flow valuation.
Base Scenario
- DDM: approximately ₱911
- Dividend-yield value: approximately ₱1,270
- FCFF: approximately ₱2,022
Weighted value:
This is the central scenario supported by our current operating, dividend, and cash-flow assumptions.
Optimistic Scenario
- DDM: approximately ₱1,139
- Dividend-yield value: approximately ₱1,567
- FCFF: approximately ₱3,656
Weighted value:
This upper scenario is useful as a boundary, but not as a target price.
The high result depends on favorable WACC and terminal-growth assumptions, particularly in FCFF.
Ang Fair Value na Gagamitin Natin
The sensitivity-tested base weighted value was:
For a clean public figure, we round this to:
This is the gross quoted-price equivalent.
After estimated 0.3950% selling costs:
Therefore:
- Gross estimated fair value: ₱1,240
- Net realizable fair value: approximately ₱1,235
The 5% Margin of Safety
Only after sensitivity analysis did we apply the Margin of Safety.
Using the rounded gross fair value:
After estimated 0.3950% selling costs:
Our working valuation framework is therefore:
- Gross fair value: ₱1,240
- Net realizable fair value: ₱1,235
- 5% MOS gross price: ₱1,178
- 5% MOS net value: ₱1,173
The ₱1,178 level is not an automatic buy signal.
It is the price at which a 5% valuation discount begins to appear.
Technical permission is still required.
Pag-uugnay sa Daily Chart
The technical chart gives us a useful set of market reference levels:
- Current price: around ₱1,230
- EMA-200 ribbon: approximately ₱1,231–₱1,256
- Bollinger middle band: approximately ₱1,192
- SMA-50: approximately ₱1,168
- Upper Bollinger Band: approximately ₱1,277
- Gross break-even against net cost: approximately ₱1,283
The valuation levels are:
- Fair value: ₱1,240
- 5% MOS: ₱1,178
These line up in an interesting way.
Around ₱1,230–₱1,240
This is both:
- the current price area;
- the lower EMA-200 decision zone;
- and the base fair-value area.
So TEL is not clearly expensive.
But it is also not deeply discounted.
At this level, any purchase would be mainly a technical test probe, not a Margin of Safety purchase.
Around ₱1,192
This is near the Bollinger middle band and inside the lower refill architecture.
A pullback here would create a larger valuation discount and could offer better technical support—provided the recovery structure remains intact.
Around ₱1,178
This is the 5% Margin of Safety price.
It also lies close to the rising SMA-50 around ₱1,168.
That creates the best current convergence between:
- valuation;
- medium-term technical support;
- and lower refill-layer location.
Still, the chart must be rescored if price reaches the zone.
A price may become cheaper because it is approaching support—or because the thesis is breaking.
The number alone cannot tell us which one.
Pag-uugnay sa SDA Refill Ladder
The current TEL ladder is:
- Layer 1: ₱1,259 and above — 200 anchor shares
- Layer 2: ₱1,240–₱1,258
- Layer 3: ₱1,220–₱1,239
- Layer 4: ₱1,201–₱1,219
- Layer 5: ₱1,182–₱1,200
The ladder aligns reasonably well with the valuation framework.
Layer 2
Layer 2 overlaps the fair-value area and EMA-200 ribbon.
This is not a cheap zone.
It is a technical confirmation zone.
Layer 3
Layer 3 offers a small discount to fair value.
This is where TEL was trading during the July 27 chart review.
A small probe is permitted by the TMA Score of 6, but there is no full Margin of Safety.
Layer 4
Layer 4 provides a wider discount but may also indicate rejection from the EMA-200 ribbon.
A new TMA score would be required.
Layer 5
Layer 5 sits just above the ₱1,178 MOS level.
This is the refill zone most closely aligned with both valuation and technical support.
But even here:
Layers provide the map—not the trigger.
Paano Ito Kumpara sa Ating Position?
Our average net cost is:
Because this is already net of purchase costs, it should be compared with net realizable selling proceeds.
To recover the average net cost after estimated 0.3950% selling costs, the gross break-even price is approximately:
Our major reference points are therefore:
- Conservative valuation: approximately ₱873
- 5% MOS price: approximately ₱1,178
- Base fair value: approximately ₱1,240
- Net average cost: ₱1,277.4743
- Gross break-even price: approximately ₱1,283
Our average cost remains above the current base fair-value estimate.
That means the existing position does not presently enjoy a valuation Margin of Safety based on acquisition cost.
But price appreciation is not the only source of value.
At normalized sustainable DPS of approximately ₱95.29:
Relative to the total net acquisition cost:
This remains the strongest part of the existing-position thesis.
Pangwakas na Kaisipan
After completing the initial Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis, the TEL valuation is now easier to interpret.
Fundamentally:
- revenue and EBITDA remain resilient;
- dividend capacity remains supportable;
- capex has declined from its peak;
- but debt remains heavy.
Technically:
- the medium-term recovery is credible;
- momentum is bullish;
- but the EMA-200 ribbon has not yet been fully reclaimed;
- and volume confirmation remains weak.
Valuation tells us:
- TEL is close to fair value around ₱1,240;
- the preferred 5% Margin of Safety price is around ₱1,178;
- and our existing average cost remains above both.
Therefore, the current MH conclusion is:
TEL remains fundamentally qualified as a Low Volatility Dividend Harvester and technically qualified for a small test probe—but not yet sufficiently discounted for aggressive accumulation.
The 200 anchor shares already give us participation.
We do not need to chase the recovery near fair value.
A future addition should be earned by one of two developments:
- a stronger technical confirmation above the EMA-200 ribbon;
- or a deeper pullback toward the ₱1,178 Margin of Safety level.
And even then, permission remains optional.
The valuation does not tell us to buy.
It tells us where the economics become more favorable.
The technical chart does not tell us what the company is worth.
It tells us whether the market is ready to cooperate.
The portfolio rules decide whether we should act at all.
That is the fuller TEL valuation story:
Fairly valued, fundamentally serviceable, technically improving—but not yet cheap enough to remove the need for patience.
The PSE has confirmed that its Shariah screening program is currently paused, with no new lists to be released until their internal review is completed. Although news outlets reported quarterly updates up to mid-2025, these later lists are no longer accessible on the PSE website.
For now, the PSE’s Shariah-Compliant Securities page and all past lists have been removed from the public website. The December 24, 2024 list is the last official version in Micro Stock Trader’s possession, downloaded before the page was taken down, although other investors may still hold later copies such as the reported July 4, 2025 release.
All halal-focused strategies under Micro Stock Trader will use a conservative, self-screened approach until official guidance resumes, in shā’ Allāh.
This post is for educational and documentation purposes only. It is not investment advice. Perform your own due diligence and consult qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions. All strategies, frameworks, and examples described here reflect the personal methodologies of Micro Stock Trader and are not guarantees of future performance.
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