Showing posts with label stock market strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stock market strategy. Show all posts

Saturday, February 1, 2025

BETA Portfolio: February 2025 Strategy and Stock Price Review Summary for 11 Shariah-Compliant Stocks

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Stock Price Review Summary for January 2025
  • February 2025 Strategy for the BETA Portfolio
  • Conclusion

Introduction

The BETA Portfolio is a carefully selected basket of 11 Shariah-compliant stocks categorized into Growth Stocks, REITs, and Dividend Stocks. As we enter February 2025, it is crucial to analyze market trends, reassess our holdings, and refine our strategy to optimize returns while managing risks.

This post provides a comprehensive review of the portfolio’s performance in January 2025, along with our updated trading strategy for February 2025 based on our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy.

As part of our ongoing refinement of the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy, we are transitioning our regular Stock Price Review to utilize the Monthly Chart instead of the Daily Chart. This shift aligns with our longer-term portfolio management approach, reducing noise from short-term fluctuations and allowing us to focus on more stable trend confirmations and strategic trade executions. With our Portfolio Value now at Php50,000.00 as of January 31, 2025, compared to Php15,000.00 on January 15, 2025, this adjustment ensures that our decisions are based on broader market movements, supporting sustainable growth as we continue the Phase 2 Live Testing of our strategy.


Stock Price Review Summary for January 2025

Growth Stocks

1. AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp. (ALLHC)

  • Final Trade Recommendation: NO TRADE
  • Next Steps: Avoid entering until stability is confirmed. Watch for support at 1.50 before considering any positions.

2. Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI)

  • Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD
  • Next Steps: Monitor for a breakout above 18.50 before adding more positions. Stop-loss set below 16.50.

3. MacroAsia Corporation (MAC)

  • Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD
  • Next Steps: Avoid adding until a breakout above 5.50 occurs. Stop-loss placed below 4.90.

4. Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE)

  • Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD
  • Next Steps: Monitor price action at 6.00 support. Avoid adding until a clear reversal is confirmed.

5. Universal Robina Corporation (URC)

  • Final Trade Recommendation: NO TRADE
  • Next Steps: The bearish trend remains strong with no confirmed support. Wait for a base formation before re-entering.


Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)

6. DDMP REIT Inc. (DDMPR)

  • Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD
  • Next Steps: Avoid new entries until price moves above 1.16. Stop-loss set at 1.00.

7. MREIT Inc. (MREIT)

  • Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD
  • Next Steps: Monitor for a breakout above 14.00 before adding more positions. Stop-loss at 12.50.

8. Premiere Island Power REIT (PREIT)

  • Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD
  • Next Steps: Watch for resistance at 2.30 before adding more positions. Stop-loss below 2.10.

9. RL Commercial REIT (RCR)

  • Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD
  • Next Steps: Wait for a breakout above 6.20 before adding positions. Stop-loss placed at 5.75.


Dividend Stocks

10. Manila Electric Company (MER)

  • Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD
  • Next Steps: Monitor for a breakout above 480 before adding new positions. Stop-loss at 420.

11. Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC)

  • Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD
  • Next Steps: Avoid new buys unless price breaks above 36.50. Stop-loss placed below 32.00.


February 2025 Strategy for the BETA Portfolio

1. No Aggressive Buying – Focus on Confirmed Trends

  • The majority of stocks are in downtrends or consolidations. No aggressive buying until clear breakouts are confirmed.
  • Key levels to watch for re-entry:
    • ATI: Buy above 18.50
    • MAC: Buy above 5.50
    • MONDE: Buy above 7.50
    • URC: Avoid until a base forms above 65.00

2. Portfolio Adjustment – Prioritize Stability

  • Prioritize defensive plays like MER and SCC, which offer dividends and relative price stability.
  • REITs (DDMPR, MREIT, PREIT, RCR) remain hold positions with no aggressive accumulation.

3. Risk Management – Stop-Loss Enforcement

  • Strict stop-loss enforcement across all positions:
    • Growth Stocks: Stop-loss range at 5-10% below current price.
    • REITs & Dividend Stocks: Stop-loss below key moving averages (e.g., 20-MA).

4. Monitor Market Sentiment & Volume

  • Watch for volume surges, especially in growth stocks, indicating institutional accumulation before entering trades.
  • Avoid stocks showing continued weakness (e.g., URC, ALLHC).

Conclusion

As we move into February 2025, the BETA Portfolio remains defensive, with a focus on risk management and strategic accumulation at confirmed breakout points. No new trades will be initiated without clear confirmations, and stop-losses will be strictly enforced to protect against unnecessary downside risk.

🚨 We remain patient, waiting for clear trend reversals before making aggressive moves. Capital preservation is our top priority this month. 🚨



Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Sunday, January 26, 2025

MER (Manila Electric Company) Stock Analysis: January 24, 2025

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

Evaluating MER’s Closing Chart Using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy

Trade Details

  • Stock: Manila Electric Company (MER)
  • Market: PSE (Philippine Stock Exchange)
  • Timeframe: 1-Day (Daily)
  • Closing Price: ₱486.00 (-1.42%)
  • Day’s Range: ₱486.00 - ₱494.40
  • 20-MA: ₱484.71 (Short-Term Trend)
  • 200-MA: ₱421.92 (Long-Term Trend)
  • Volume: 164.98K (SMA 9)
Manila Electric Company (MER) stock chart with moving averages and retracement levels marked for analysis.

MER stock price analysis on January 24, 2025, showing key pullback levels and trend indicators.



Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

  • Trend: MER remains in an uptrend as the price is above both the 20-day moving average (₱484.71) and the 200-day moving average (₱421.92).
  • Positioning: The price remains in a consolidation phase near the previous resistance of ₱500. However, a pullback from recent highs suggests some short-term selling pressure.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Moving Averages & Key Levels

  • The price is trading slightly above the 20-MA, indicating that the short-term trend remains intact.
  • The 50% Sweet Spot Pullback level is ₱476.85, which could serve as a potential support zone.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength

  • No strong green power bars are present in the latest price action.
  • The recent red candles indicate a retracement, but the price is still holding above the 20-MA, suggesting a healthy pullback rather than a reversal.

Step 4: Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies

  • The price is currently near the 25% Sweet Spot Pullback (₱490.18).
  • If a bullish reversal forms in the next session, it could signal an entry opportunity.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

  • Stop-loss should be set below the 50% pullback level (₱476.85).
  • A deeper retracement towards ₱450.20 (100% pullback) would indicate a trend failure.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

  • A bullish reversal candle (green bar) near the 25%-50% pullback zone would confirm a potential buy signal.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

  • First target: ₱503.50 (Recent high)
  • Second target: ₱510+ (Breakout potential)

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

  • If MER retests the ₱476.85 level and bounces, another entry opportunity may emerge.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

  • Larger positions can be taken near the 33%-50% retracement zone (₱476-₱490).
  • If the price falls below ₱450, the trend would likely be invalidated.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

  • Since MER is in an uptrend, counter-trend trades are not advisable unless a complete trend reversal occurs.

Final Trade Assessment

Bullish Outlook: Despite the pullback, the price remains above key support levels and the short-term moving average.

⚠️ Key Levels to Watch:

  • Support: ₱484.71 (20-MA), ₱476.85 (50% pullback)
  • Resistance: ₱503.50 (previous high), ₱510 (breakout level)

📌 Strategy Moving Forward:

  • Watch for a bullish reversal candle near ₱476-₱490.
  • Enter with confirmation and set a stop-loss below ₱476.85.
  • First target: ₱503.50; Second target: ₱510+.

Next Steps

  • Traders should monitor if MER stabilizes near the 25%-50% pullback zone.
  • A bounce above ₱490 would confirm the continuation of the uptrend.
  • A break below ₱476 would indicate further downside risk.



Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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