Showing posts with label MAC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MAC. Show all posts

Saturday, February 1, 2025

Stock Price Review: MacroAsia Corporation (MAC) Monthly Chart as of January 31, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Recommendation
  • Next Steps

Introduction

MacroAsia Corporation (MAC) has been experiencing renewed volatility, with price fluctuations reflecting investor sentiment. As of January 31, 2025, MAC closed at 5.17, down -4.96% for the month, after reaching a high of 6.10. Price is now sitting above the 20-MA (4.68), indicating continued support, but the rejection from higher levels suggests a potential slowdown in momentum.

Trade Details:

  • Stock: MacroAsia Corporation (MAC)
  • Exchange: PSE
  • Timeframe: Monthly
  • Date: January 31, 2025
  • Closing Price: 5.17
  • High: 6.10
  • Low: 5.05
  • 20-MA (Short-Term Trend): 4.68
  • 200-MA (Long-Term Trend): Not available

Key Pullback Levels:

  • 100% Pullback: 7.50 (Strong resistance)
  • 75% Pullback: 6.50 (Short-term resistance)
  • 50% Pullback: 5.50 (Recent rejection area)
  • 0% Pullback: 4.50 (Major support near the 20-MA)

This stock price review follows our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy to ensure a structured and comprehensive assessment.

MacroAsia Corporation (MAC) monthly stock chart showing price action, moving averages, and key technical levels.

MacroAsia Corporation (MAC) Monthly Chart as of January 31, 2025



Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

  • The long-term trend is shifting from bearish to neutral, as price remains above the 20-MA (4.68).
  • The stock faced strong rejection at 6.10, indicating sellers are active near higher resistance levels.
  • If price holds above 5.00, the uptrend can resume toward 6.50.

✅ Market State: Uptrend with a pullback.
๐Ÿ›‘ Decision: HOLD – Monitor if 5.00 support holds before adding more.

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones

  • Positive Position: Price remains above the 20-MA, suggesting a potential continuation of the uptrend.
  • Retracement Zone: 5.00 - 5.50 is a critical level where support must hold for the uptrend to continue.

✅ Favorable for holding, but needs confirmation.
๐Ÿ›‘ Decision: HOLD – Avoid new buys until confirmation above 5.50.

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation

  • January closed with a red candle, showing a pullback after a strong rally in previous months.
  • Volume is high (25.99M), indicating continued investor interest despite selling pressure.

✅ Buyers are present, but momentum has slowed.
๐Ÿ›‘ Decision: WAIT – Need strong volume above 5.50 for a breakout.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals

  • BUY trade executed at 5.58 (400 shares on January 27) was placed within the 50% retracement zone.
  • A move above 5.50 would confirm a continuation of the uptrend.

๐Ÿ›‘ Decision: WAIT – No additional entries until confirmation.

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management

  • Stop-loss should be placed below 4.90 to protect against downside risk.
  • Risk remains controlled as long as price holds above 5.00.

✅ Defined risk, manageable position.
๐Ÿ›‘ Decision: HOLD – Stop-loss placement remains unchanged.

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation

  • January’s red candle suggests that buyers lost momentum.

๐Ÿ›‘ Decision: WAIT – Observe price action in early February.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits

  • Target 6.50 - 7.50 for partial exits if the uptrend resumes.
  • Holding remains valid as long as price stays above 5.00.

✅ Holding remains a valid strategy.
๐Ÿ›‘ Decision: HOLD – No immediate need to exit.

Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones

  • Best re-entry zone is near 5.00 if support holds.

✅ Consider adding on dips above 5.00.
๐Ÿ›‘ Decision: WAIT – No new entries unless price stabilizes.

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments

  • BUY trade at 5.58 was executed near key levels, but confirmation is still needed.
  • If price moves above 5.50, adding to the position can be considered.

๐Ÿ›‘ Decision: HOLD – Monitor trend before adding.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations

  • No counter-trend trade needed as the stock remains in an uptrend.

๐Ÿ›‘ Decision: HOLD – No counter-trend action required.


Final Trade Recommendation

Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD
Recommendation: Maintain the position at 5.58, but avoid adding aggressively until a confirmed breakout above 5.50.
Risk Management: Stop-loss below 4.90 to protect against downside risk.
Profit-Taking Strategy: Target 6.50 - 7.50 for gradual exits upon breakout.
Position Size Strategy: Hold the current position and consider adding if price stabilizes above 5.00 with volume confirmation.


Next Steps

๐Ÿ”น Short-term traders → Wait for a breakout above 5.50 before adding positions.
๐Ÿ”น Long-term investors → Hold positions for dividends and trend continuation.
๐Ÿ”น Existing holders → Watch the 5.00 level for support confirmation.
๐Ÿšจ Final Thought: MAC is in an uptrend but faced resistance at 6.10. A breakout above 5.50 is needed for further upside. ๐Ÿšจ



Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


Related Readings

Monday, January 27, 2025

Evaluation of Trade No. 5 – MacroAsia Corporation (MAC)

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps


Trade Details

  • Trade No.: 5/20
  • Date: January 27, 2025
  • Action: Buy
  • Entry Type: Pullback Entry
  • Signal: Price retracing to key support near the 200-MA and retracement zone
  • Stock: MacroAsia Corporation (MAC)
  • Shares Bought: 400 out of 800 allocated
  • Entry Price: ₱5.58
  • Position Size: 1/2 of target allocation

๐Ÿ“Œ Chart Overview:

  • MAC closed at ₱5.16 (-6.52%), dropping below key moving averages.
  • Price rejected near the 20-MA (₱5.44) and the 200-MA (₱5.31), showing weakness.
  • 50% pullback at ₱6.33 remains a major resistance area.
  • Support near the 0% pullback level at ₱4.96 is now in play.
MAC Closing Daily Chart with moving averages and retracement levels for trade evaluation on January 27, 2025.

MAC Trade No. 5/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Chart



Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

(Each step scored out of 10 based on trade alignment with strategy.)

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context - Score: 6/10

  • MAC remains in a corrective phase after a prior uptrend.
  • Failure to hold above moving averages suggests continued selling pressure.
  • A reversal setup is not yet confirmed.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels - Score: 7/10

  • Entry at ₱5.58 was near the 200-MA (₱5.31) but failed to hold.
  • Price is now testing the lower range of the pullback zone, increasing downside risk.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 5/10

  • Bearish candle with increased volume confirms stronger selling pressure.
  • Price needs a strong green candle above ₱5.30-₱5.40 to validate a reversal.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels - Score: 7/10

  • Entry aligned with a logical support level, but price closed weak.
  • A retest of ₱4.96 is possible if no recovery occurs.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 9/10

  • Stop-loss placed below ₱5.00 ensures controlled downside risk.
  • Break below ₱4.96 invalidates the trade.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation - Score: 5/10

  • No clear bullish color change yet.
  • A green candle above ₱5.40 is needed for confirmation.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 8/10

  • First target: ₱5.80-₱6.00 (short-term resistance).
  • Final target: ₱6.33-₱6.50 (major resistance).

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 6/10

  • Re-entry near ₱5.16 may be possible, but a breakdown below ₱5.00 negates the setup.
  • Another opportunity exists above ₱5.40-₱5.50 if strength returns.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management - Score: 7/10

  • 1/2 position deployed, leaving room for scaling if price stabilizes.
  • Further exposure should only be added above ₱5.40-₱5.50.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 5/10

  • Not a counter-trend trade, but weakness below ₱5.00 signals the need for caution.
  • Price needs to reclaim ₱5.40 to justify holding the position.

๐Ÿ“Œ Overall Strategy Score: 65/100

๐Ÿ“Œ Summary: Trade entered at a reasonable support zone but failed to hold, requiring immediate risk management decisions.


Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 6.5/10

Trade Execution: Entry positioned at a retracement level, but breakdown occurred.

Risk Management: Stop-loss at ₱4.96 ensures controlled downside risk.

Profit-Taking Strategy: First target at ₱5.80, scaling out at ₱6.33-₱6.50.

Position Size Strategy: 1/2 Allocation, keeping flexibility for re-entries.


Next Steps

๐Ÿ“Œ Monitor price action near ₱5.16-₱5.30. If MAC holds this level, consider holding the position.

๐Ÿ“Œ Watch for weakness below ₱5.00. If momentum weakens, consider cutting losses.

๐Ÿ“Œ Look for re-entry opportunities. If MAC retests ₱5.40 and holds, consider adding more shares.

๐Ÿšจ Conclusion: Trade No. 5 remains weak unless MAC reclaims ₱5.40-₱5.50. If price fails to hold above ₱5.00, an exit is necessary to minimize risk. ๐Ÿšจ



Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Sunday, January 26, 2025

Tactical Entry Decision for MAC – January 27, 2025: A Calculated Risk Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Tactical Entry Setup
  • Risk vs. Reward Analysis
  • Trade Execution Plan
  • Final Tactical Entry Decision
  • Next Steps


Introduction

This trade analysis focuses on a high-conviction tactical entry for MacroAsia Corporation (PSE: MAC) based on our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy. Unlike a full-position entry, this trade is a calculated risk, leveraging technical levels to maximize potential upside while minimizing exposure to downside risk.

We intend to enter 400 shares, which represents 50% of our planned 800-share allocation, in a critical price zone where MAC is trading between the 20-day moving average (20-MA) and the 200-day moving average (200-MA). The goal is to take a strategic position while ensuring that we have room to adjust if price action changes.

MAC Daily Chart showing Tactical Entry between 200-MA and 20-MA

MAC Tactical Entry Decision – Risk-Managed Buy Plan Using the Hybrid 10-Step



Tactical Entry Setup

MAC is currently trading at ₱5.52, sitting just above the 200-MA at ₱5.31 and the 20-MA at ₱5.45. This zone often acts as a critical decision area, where price either rebounds strongly or breaks down further.

A double bottom pattern appears to be forming, with two distinct troughs at ₱4.96, suggesting a possible bullish reversal. However, for this pattern to fully confirm, price must break above ₱6.00 and sustain momentum toward ₱6.33, where strong resistance exists.

The reason for considering a tactical entry now is that the 20-MA and 200-MA are converging, which often signals a high-probability price action zone. Buying within this area allows us to take advantage of a low-risk, high-reward setup while keeping a strict stop-loss strategy in place.


Risk vs. Reward Analysis

The stop-loss for this trade is set at ₱5.20, which is just below the key swing low. If the price breaks below this level, it would invalidate the bullish setup and confirm further downside risk. The first profit target is at ₱6.00, which marks the neckline resistance of the double bottom formation. If price breaks above this level, the second target is ₱6.33, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from its previous downtrend.

If MAC reaches ₱6.00, it represents an 8.69% gain from our entry. If the price extends toward ₱6.33, the profit potential rises to 14.67%. On the downside, if the stop-loss at ₱5.20 is hit, we would incur a 5.80% loss.

This means the risk-to-reward ratio for the first target is approximately 1.5:1, while for the second target, it is 2.5:1, making this a favorable setup with more upside potential than downside risk.

However, if MAC fails to break above ₱6.00 and faces selling pressure, the trade could stall, leading to a potential reversal toward ₱5.00 or lower. This is why strict risk management is necessary, and we will exit the trade if the stop-loss is triggered.


Trade Execution Plan

To manage risk effectively, we will execute this trade in two parts.

First, we will enter 400 shares between ₱5.31 and ₱5.52. This represents 50% of our total planned 800-share position. By starting with a smaller position, we reduce exposure in case of a false breakout while still participating in a potential bullish move.

Second, we will only add the remaining 400 shares if MAC breaks above ₱6.00 with strong volume confirmation. This ensures that we only commit fully to the trade once bullish momentum is validated.

The stop-loss is strictly set at ₱5.20, which will protect against downside risk. If MAC closes below this level, we immediately exit the trade, avoiding further losses.

The profit-taking strategy is to sell 200 shares at ₱6.00 if price reaches the first target. The remaining 200 shares will be sold at ₱6.33 if momentum continues. If the price struggles to hold ₱6.00, we will adjust the plan accordingly to protect gains.


Final Tactical Entry Decision

This is a strategic and calculated risk trade with a favorable risk-to-reward profile.

Reasons why we are taking the trade:

  • The double bottom pattern is forming, signaling a possible bullish reversal.
  • The 200-MA is acting as strong support, making this an attractive buy zone.
  • The risk-to-reward ratio is favorable, with a potential upside of 14.67% and a limited downside of 5.80%.
  • A break above ₱6.00 would confirm a bullish breakout, which is why we are keeping 50% of our allocation in reserve.

Risks that need to be considered:

  • The breakout is not yet confirmed.
  • A false breakout could lead to another rejection at ₱6.00, causing the price to reverse.
  • If MAC breaks below ₱5.30, it may head toward ₱5.00 or lower, invalidating the bullish setup.

The best way to manage this risk is by keeping our stop-loss strict at ₱5.20 and only committing the second half of the position if MAC confirms the breakout above ₱6.00.


Next Steps

For traders executing this setup:

  • Buy 400 shares within ₱5.31-₱5.52.
  • Set a stop-loss at ₱5.20 and do not lower it.
  • Sell 200 shares at ₱6.00 if the price reaches the first target.
  • Sell the remaining 200 shares at ₱6.33 if the breakout sustains.
  • Only add another 400 shares if MAC breaks ₱6.00 with strong volume.

For those who prefer a more conservative approach, it is advisable to wait for MAC to confirm the breakout above ₱6.00 before entering.

If MAC fails to sustain momentum and shows signs of weakness, we will reassess the trade and decide whether to exit early to protect capital.

This is a high-reward trade with moderate risk, but strict discipline is required to ensure a successful execution.


Related Post:

Stock Price Review: MAC Daily Chart – Buy or Sell Decision – January 24, 2025



Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


Related Readings

Stock Price Review: MAC Daily Chart – Buy or Sell Decision – January 24, 2025

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Stock Price Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Stock Price Assessment
  • Next Steps


Introduction

This stock price review examines MacroAsia Corporation (MAC) as of January 24, 2025, using the daily chart. Our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy is applied to determine whether MAC is a buy, sell, or hold by assessing market structure, trend positioning, and risk management.

Date of Review

๐Ÿ“… January 24, 2025

Stock Price Overview

  • Stock Name & Ticker: MacroAsia Corporation (MAC)
  • Timeframe: Daily Chart
  • Market Trend: Attempting a Downtrend Reversal
  • Price Position: Trading between the 20-day MA (5.45) and 200-day MA (5.31)
  • Significant Support & Resistance Levels:
    • Support Levels: 4.96 (0% Pullback), 5.31 (200-MA Support)
    • Resistance Levels: 6.33 (50% Bullish Reversal), 7.01 (75% Bullish Reversal), 7.69 (100% Pullback)

MAC recently found support near the 200-day MA, bouncing +4.94% to close at 5.52, suggesting early buying interest. However, strong resistance is at 6.33, making it a critical level to watch.

MAC Daily Chart with moving averages, Fibonacci retracements, and price action analysis.

MAC Stock Price Review – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy



Stock Price Details

  • Stock Name & Ticker: MacroAsia Corporation (MAC)
  • Timeframe: Daily Chart
  • Market Trend: Recovering from a downtrend, but still below key resistance.
  • Price Position:
    • Currently trading at 5.52 (+4.94%)
    • Above the 200-day MA (5.31) but struggling to break past the 20-day MA (5.45).
  • Significant Support & Resistance Levels:
    • Support: 4.96 (0% Pullback), 5.31 (200-MA)
    • Resistance:
      • 6.33 (50% Bullish Reversal – Key Breakout Level)
      • 7.01 (75% Bullish Reversal – Strong Resistance)
      • 7.69 (100% Pullback – Full Recovery Level)

MAC’s price action suggests accumulation near support, but it must clear the 6.33 resistance zone to confirm a strong reversal.


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Market Trend Classification

๐Ÿ“Œ MAC has been in a strong downtrend but is now attempting a recovery.

  • Lower highs and lower lows were dominant from November to early January.
  • Price is now consolidating near the 200-MA, a potential reversal zone.

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones

  • Currently trading between the 20-MA (5.45) and 200-MA (5.31).
  • Key Retracement Levels:
    • 6.33 (50% Bullish Reversal) – Major resistance.
    • 7.01 (75% Bullish Reversal) – Strong overhead supply zone.
    • 4.96 (0% Pullback) – Breakdown risk if price fails to hold.

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation

  • Strong green candlestick (+4.94%) with volume of 3.4M, above the 9-day average.
  • Indicates buyer interest, but still below the key resistance zone.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals

  • A confirmed buy signal occurs if price closes above 6.33.
  • Breakout traders should wait for price to reclaim this level before entering.

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management

  • Stop-loss below 5.31 (200-MA) or 4.96 (0% Pullback level).
  • Risk-reward improves above 6.33 with a target at 7.69.

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation

  • MAC has printed a strong green candle after a choppy range.
  • A follow-through day above 5.60 is needed for confirmation.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies

  • Partial profits can be taken at 6.33 if the rally continues.
  • Final targets at 7.01 and 7.69 for trend reversal confirmation.

Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones

  • A pullback to 5.31 with volume support is a low-risk re-entry.
  • Breakout re-entry above 6.33 signals further upside potential.

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments

  • A failure to hold 5.31 may lead to a retest of 4.96.
  • A breakout above 6.33 opens the path to 7.01.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations

  • Bearish traders may short at 6.33 if a rejection occurs.
  • Bullish traders should wait for a confirmation above 6.33.

Final Stock Price Assessment

๐Ÿ“Œ MAC is showing early signs of a reversal but needs confirmation above 6.33.
๐Ÿ“Œ Holding above the 20-MA (5.45) is key for bullish continuation.
๐Ÿ“Œ Volume today suggests growing interest, but resistance remains strong.

Buy, Sell, or Hold Decision?

BUY if price closes above 6.33, confirming the breakout.
⚠️ HOLD if price consolidates between 5.31 and 6.33 without a strong move.
SELL/EXIT if price falls below 5.31, as downside risk increases.


Next Steps

๐Ÿ“Š Key factors to monitor:

  1. MAC must close above 6.33 for a full bullish breakout.
  2. Watch volume—continued high buying volume strengthens the reversal case.
  3. Stop-loss should be set below 5.31 or at 4.96 to protect against downside risk.



Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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