Micro Stock Trader Blog | Ang inyong Batangueñong retail stock trader
Nilalaman:
- Panimula
- Stock Price Review Gamit and Hybrid 10-Step Strategy
- Hatol sa Stock: Bibili ba Dadaan Lang?
- Next Move: Plano Pag Tumama o Sumablay
- Layered Accumulation Plan (₱10,000 Capital | 1 board lot = 1000 shares)
- Phased Exit Plan (Target-Based Selling)
I. Panimula
Ngayong linggo, sisilipin natin ang galaw ng Petron Corporation (PCOR) — isa sa mga kilalang oil refining and marketing companies sa bansa. Sa harap ng patuloy na global energy volatility at local fuel pricing adjustments, tanong ng marami: panahon na ba para pumasok sa PCOR?
📌 TRADE DETAILS:
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Date: July 16, 2025
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Stock: Petron Corporation (PCOR)
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Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
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Timeframe: Weekly
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Closing Price: ₱2.50
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High: ₱2.51
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Low: ₱2.40
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20-MA (Short-Term Trend): ₱2.42
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50-MA (Mid-Term Trend): ₱2.46
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200-MA (Long-Term Trend): ₱2.99
Gagamitin natin ang Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 5.0 – Long-Term Focus Variant para masuri kung may magandang oportunidad ba sa PCOR ngayon.
🔗 Basahin ang strategy guide dito
II. Stock Price Review Gamit ang Hybrid 10-Step Strategy
✅ Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context
Ang presyo ng PCOR ay nasa ilalim pa rin ng 200-MA (₱2.99), indikasyon na ito’y nasa long-term downtrend. Pero kapansin-pansin na ito ay naglalaro sa gitna ng 20 at 50-MA, na parehong nagkukrus, patunay ng tight consolidation o possible early accumulation.
➡ Verdict: Wait/Observe – May early signs pero kailangan ng follow-through.
✅ Step 2: Price Position & Long-Term Value Zones
Ang kasalukuyang presyo ay malayo pa sa 200-MA (bearish), ngunit malapit sa 20-MA at 50-MA, na nagiging retracement band ng mga nakaraang rally. Potential entry zone ito kung mag-hold above ₱2.40.
➡ Verdict: Begin Layer 1 Accumulation Below ₱2.50
✅ Step 3: Power Bars, Price Behavior & Volume Shift
May mga recent green bars with decent volume sa ₱2.40–₱2.50 zone, pero wala pang matibay na power breakout bar. May mid-volume activity, ngunit hindi pa malinaw kung may institutional accumulation.
➡ Verdict: Tactical Buy with Caution
✅ Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Fundamentals & Technical Triggers
Wala pang confirmed breakout above ₱2.60, ngunit dahil ang presyo ay stable sa base band (₱2.40–₱2.50), maaaring subukan ang Layer 1 entry.
➡ Verdict: Test Buy Layer 1 at ₱2.44–₱2.50
✅ Step 5: Stop-Loss Policy Based on Thesis Violation
Initial stop loss sa ilalim ng base support: ₱2.35, na dating low ng mga rejection bars.
➡ Verdict: Use hard stop at ₱2.35
✅ Step 6: Color Change Signals for Trend Validation
Wala pang strong color shift (green dominance), pero halos 3 weeks na rin na mas marami ang green kaysa red. Early bias shifting, pero hindi pa conclusive.
➡ Verdict: Monitor for green follow-through
✅ Step 7: Profit-Taking via Valuation and Growth Cycles
Kung makalampas sa ₱2.60–₱2.70, pwedeng targetin ang ₱2.85 hanggang ₱3.00 na previous consolidation area.
➡ Verdict: Partial take profit sa ₱2.85, next sa ₱2.99
✅ Step 8: Re-Entry Plans After Market Dips
Kung bumaba sa ₱2.40 pero mag-hold, puwedeng magdagdag ng Layer 2. Stop loss laging tight.
➡ Verdict: Re-enter only sa ₱2.35 support hold with confirmation
✅ Step 9: Position Size Planning for Long-Term Portfolios
Core Entry: 1 board lot (₱2,500)
Next Layer: 1 board lot per layer only pag may signal
Total capital: ₱10,000 = max 4 entries
➡ Verdict: Use tactical size now, core size sa confirmed trend
✅ Step 10: Ethical and Counter-Trend Opportunity Considerations
PCOR is Shariah-compliant (based on Dec 2024 list). Kaya puwedeng isali sa Budget Ethical Account.
➡ Verdict: Eligible for ethical tactical buy
III. Hatol sa Stock: Bibili ba o Dadaan Lang?
Final Stock Recommendation: BUY (Layer 1 Tactical Entry)
✅ Recommendation: Buy 1,000 shares at ₱2.44–₱2.50 habang nasa base support with early signs of accumulation.
✅ Risk Management: Hard stop below ₱2.35 to limit downside.
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Partial exits sa ₱2.85, full exit sa ₱2.99.
✅ Position Size Strategy: Start with 1 board lot, add kung mag-break above ₱2.60 with strong volume.
IV. 🔄 Next Move: Plano Pag Tumama o Sumablay
🔹 Pag Tumama:
– Add Layer 2 sa breakout ng ₱2.60
– Protect profit sa ₱2.85
– Adjust stop to breakeven pag lampas ₱2.70
🔹 Pag Sumablay:
– Exit below ₱2.35
– Maghintay ng panibagong base formation
🚨 Tandaan: Early signs pa lang ito. Hindi pa full reversal. Kailangan ng disiplina at tamang entry.
V. 📚 Layered Accumulation Plan (₱10,000 Capital | 1 Board Lot = 1000 Shares)
Layer 1 – Tactical Test Buy
🔸 Buy 1,000 shares @ ₱2.44–₱2.50 = ~₱2,500
Layer 2 – Support Rebound
🔸 Buy 1,000 shares @ ₱2.35 = ₱2,350
Layer 3 – Confirmed Breakout
🔸 Buy 1,000 shares @ ₱2.60 = ₱2,600
Layer 4 – Pullback After Breakout
🔸 Buy 1,000 shares @ ₱2.50 if breakout holds = ₱2,500
✅ Total Capital Plan: ~₱10,000
✅ Maximum Shares: 4,000
✅ Average Price (if all layers filled): ~₱2.47
VI. 🎯 Phased Exit Plan (Target-Based Selling)
Target 1 – Minor Resistance
🔹 ₱2.85 → Sell 1,000 shares
Target 2 – 200-MA Test
🔹 ₱2.99 → Sell another 1,000 shares
Target 3 – Full Exit if Overbought
🔹 ₱3.20 → Sell remaining position
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Paalala lang: Ang post na ito ay para sa informational purposes only at hindi dapat ituring na financial advice. Laging siguraduhing gumawa ng sarili mong research bago pumasok sa kahit anong trade o investment.
Mainam Basahin: Batangueñong Trade Mindset Series
Isang koleksyon ng edukasyonal, mindset-based, at strategic posts para sa retail traders na may disiplina sa plano at malasakit sa galaw ng merkado.
Para sa maliit ang puhunan, pero malawak ang pag-iisip — at paninindigang Batangueño.
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