Araneta Properties, Inc. (ARA) Stock Price Review: Weekly Chart as of July 11, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

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ARA Weekly Chart Shows Breakout Attempt with Power Candle – As of July 11, 2025

Nilalaman:

• Panimula
• Stock Price Review Gamit and Hybrid 10-Step Strategy
• Hatol sa Stock: Bibili ba Dadaan Lang?
• Next Move: Plano Pag Tumama o Sumablay

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I. Panimula

Aba'y eto nanaman tayo sa pagsusuri ng Araneta Properties, Inc. (ARA) – isa sa mga low-priced property plays sa Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE). Matapos ang matamlay na takbo noong Hunyo, aba'y tila gumalaw na ulit! Biglang may 11.34% na galaw pataas sa linggong ito. Pero tanong ng marami: "May aasahan ba sa ARA o trap lang 'to?"

Balikan muna natin ang mga detalye:

TRADE DETAILS
📅 Date: July 11, 2025
🏢 Stock: Araneta Properties, Inc. (ARA)
📈 Exchange: PSE
⏱️ Timeframe: Weekly
💰 Closing Price: ₱0.54
📈 High: ₱0.58
📉 Low: ₱0.50
📊 20-MA: ₱0.55
📉 200-MA: ₱0.94

Gaya ng una nating pagsusuri noong June 30, 2025, sinabi nating "Hold/Wait" pa rin at bantayan ang ₱0.48. Ngayong may bagong bar na may lakas, suriin natin kung nagbago na ba ang ihip ng hangin.

• Stock Price Review: Araneta Properties, Inc. (ARA) Weekly Chart as of June 30, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

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II. Stock Price Review Gamit and Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context
Malinaw pa rin — long-term downtrend si ARA (200-MA @ ₱0.94), pero may hawak siyang sideways base simula March 2024. Ang magandang balita? Sa wakas, may malinis na green bar na lumabas ngayong linggo, at nakatawid na ulit sa 8-week MA (₱0.51).
➡ Verdict: Wait pa rin. Trend ay hindi pa nababali.

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones
Yung closing na ₱0.54 ay near sa 20-MA, pero hindi pa rin lagpas. Medyo alanganin ang pwesto — 'ika nga, "pwedeng tumuloy, pwedeng bumalik." Kung ito ay reversal talaga, kailangan natin ng follow-through.
➡ Verdict: Wait – kulang pa sa tibay para sumabay.

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation
May power candle ngayong linggo (green bar, wide range, malakas ang volume). Ayan ang gusto nating makita. Mukhang sinubukan niyang mag-breakout mula sa range sa ₱0.51.
➡ Verdict: Tactical Buy kung mag-follow-through next week.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals
Entry confirmation ay kailangan ng second bullish bar above ₱0.55 next week. Kung mag-hold siya above ₱0.54 at may volume pa rin, pwede na nating simulan ang unang layer.
➡ Verdict: Watch for Confirmation

ARA Weekly Chart Shows Breakout Attempt with Power Candle Annotated – As of July 11, 2025

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management
Kung papasok tayo, dapat may tight stop-loss sa ₱0.48 — yan ang naging support sa daily chart. Pag bumagsak ulit dyan, trap lang ito.
➡ Verdict: BUY kung may follow-through, STOP sa ₱0.48

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation
Green ang weekly candle, volume ay halos 3x average. Magandang color shift ito, pero isang linggo pa lang. Tuloy-tuloy dapat.
➡ Verdict: Positibo, pero bantayan pa.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits
Kapag nagkataon na tuloy-tuloy ito, unang resistance ay ₱0.60, ₱0.65, tapos ₱0.70. Doon tayo magbawas.
➡ Verdict: May visible exit zones. Ready na kung pumutok.

Step 8: Potential Re-entry Zones
Kung mag-breakout sa ₱0.57–₱0.60 at bumalik sa ₱0.54, pwede tayong mag-reentry doon. Tight stop pa rin sa ₱0.50 below.
➡ Verdict: Watch ₱0.54–₱0.55 zone for re-entry.

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments
Pwede tayong gumamit ng 10% tactical entry sa current setup. Kung mag-confirm, dagdagan hanggang 50% allocation.
➡ Verdict: Tactical Entry Allowed

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations
Hindi na ito counter-trend setup. Ang tanong ngayon ay: “Magta-trend reversal ba ‘to?”
➡ Verdict: Not counter-trend anymore. Reversal under watch.

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III. Final Stock Recommendation

Final Trade Recommendation: Tactical Buy on Confirmation

✅ Recommendation: Tactical Buy sa ₱0.54–₱0.55 area kung may follow-through sa susunod na linggo.

✅ Risk Management: Use hard stop-loss sa ₱0.48 to cut early kung hindi matuloy ang breakout.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Partial sell sa ₱0.60, ₱0.65 at ₱0.70.

✅ Position Size Strategy: Start small (10% allocation), add to 30–50% kung mag-hold above ₱0.57.

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IV. Next Steps

🔹 Short-term traders → Puwede nang mag-test buy kung may follow-up candle. Bantayan ang ₱0.55 resistance.

🔹 Long-term investors → Maghintay pa rin ng base-building above ₱0.60 bago full commitment.

🔹 Existing holders → Hold and monitor ₱0.55 breakout. Prepare to sell above ₱0.60.

🚨 Final Thought: Reversal signs are forming, pero isang green bar ay hindi pa katumbas ng bagong trend. Hintayin ang follow-through bago magbuo ng lakas ng loob.

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Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Paalala lang: Ang post na ito ay para sa informational purposes only at hindi dapat ituring na financial advice. Laging siguraduhing gumawa ng sarili mong research bago pumasok sa kahit anong trade o investment.

Micro Stock Trader Blog | Ang inyong Batangueñong retail stock trader

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Stock Price Review: Araneta Properties, Inc. (ARA) Weekly Chart as of June 30, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Araneta Properties, Inc. (ARA) Weekly Chart with Key Moving Averages – As of June 30, 2025

Araneta Properties, Inc. (ARA) continues to trade within a weak technical structure, with price action stuck beneath all major moving averages. Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant, this review examines the current chart dynamics, potential tactical entry zones, and key support near ₱0.48. Is ARA bottoming out or just pausing before another leg down? Let’s break it down.

Contents:

• Introduction
• Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Review
• Final Stock Recommendation
• Next Steps
• Layered Accumulation Plan
• Evaluation of Adherence to Strategy

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1. Introduction

Araneta Properties, Inc. (ARA) is a small-cap stock listed on the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) and classified under the property development sector. Its share price has seen steep declines over the past two years amid low liquidity and broader market weakness in speculative real estate issues.

TRADE DETAILS
Date: June 30, 2025
Stock: Araneta Properties, Inc. (ARA)
Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
Timeframes: Weekly
Closing Price: ₱0.52
High: ₱0.52
Low: ₱0.51
20-MA (Short-Term Trend): ₱0.55
200-MA (Long-Term Trend): ₱0.94

This stock price review follows the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant for a structured and comprehensive assessment.

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2. Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

ARA remains in a prolonged downtrend, with the price persistently below all key moving averages. The 200-week MA at ₱0.94 sits far above the current price, confirming a bearish long-term state. The short-term 20-week MA at ₱0.55 is slightly above the close at ₱0.52, suggesting ongoing selling pressure.
➡ Verdict: Wait (Bearish environment, no reversal signal yet)

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones

The stock trades below all major MAs (8, 20, 50, 200), placing it in a negative position. The price is near the 8-week and 20-week MAs, but without upward momentum. This hints at ongoing base-building. There's no clear retracement pattern to suggest a reliable entry setup at this point.
➡ Verdict: Wait (No favorable pullback/reversal zone identified)

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation

There are no fresh green power bars or bullish breakout formations. Recent upticks were brief and low in conviction, as shown by subdued volume this week.
➡ Verdict: Wait (Lack of bullish power or breakout momentum)

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals

Entry remains unconfirmed. No bullish reversal, no significant resistance break, and no solid base formation detected.
➡ Verdict: Wait

ARA Weekly Chart Showing Downtrend Line and Support Zone – As of June 30, 2025

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management

In this volatile and low-volume state, risk is elevated. A prudent stop-loss would sit just below ₱0.48 (recent swing low), but without a confirmed entry, stop placement is premature.
➡ Verdict: Wait

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation

No meaningful color shift observed. Most candles reflect indecision or weak selling pressure. No accumulation signals from large institutions yet.
➡ Verdict: Wait

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits

There is no actionable trade at the moment, so profit-taking plans remain on hold. That said, prior resistance at ₱0.60 and ₱0.70 may serve as future profit zones.
➡ Verdict: Wait

Step 8: Potential Re-entry Zones

A retest of ₱0.48 or a flush below ₱0.45 followed by a reversal may present a tactical re-entry. Until then, this is watch-only territory.
➡ Verdict: Wait

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments

Due to the stock’s thin liquidity, only tactical entries of 10% or less are justifiable—but only if bottoming signals emerge, which is not the case as of this chart date.
➡ Verdict: Wait

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations

The stock is over 40% below its 200-MA, but counter-trend entries are discouraged without a confirmed reversal bar or double-bottom support.
➡ Verdict: Wait

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3. Final Stock Recommendation

Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD/WAIT

✅ Recommendation: Wait for a break above ₱0.55 with strong volume or a reversal from ₱0.48 before considering a tactical buy.

✅ Risk Management: Avoid premature entries in illiquid zones. If entering tactically, use a tight stop below ₱0.48.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Target resistance at ₱0.60 and ₱0.70 on future rallies.

✅ Position Size Strategy: Use small tactical entries only once reversal confirmation appears—ideal for seasoned long-term accumulation strategies.

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4. Next Steps

🔹 Short-term traders → Avoid any entries. No volatility edge or momentum is present.

🔹 Long-term investors → Wait for the ₱0.48–₱0.50 zone to confirm support before considering gradual accumulation.

🔹 Existing holders → Monitor price behavior at ₱0.48 and be ready to exit if support fails.

🚨 Final Thought: ARA is still in the process of building a base. Wait for a clean reversal setup before taking action. 🚨

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ARA Daily Chart Highlighting Key Support and Resistance Levels – As of June 30, 2025

5. Suggested Layered Accumulation Plan (Based on ₱10,000 Capital)

We shall apply a gradual, risk-controlled accumulation using four (4) entry layers, each with a tactical rationale. This ensures we don’t fully commit capital too early during a bottoming phase.

Layer 1 – Watchlist Entry (₱0.48–₱0.50 range)
🔹 Capital: ₱2,000 (20%)
🔹 Rationale: Enter tactically if price stabilizes near this support band, showing volume pickup or small bullish reversals.
🔹 Purpose: Initial positioning to test for a sustainable base.

Layer 2 – Power Bar Entry (₱0.51–₱0.53 breakout)
🔹 Capital: ₱3,000 (30%)
🔹 Rationale: Add on confirmation of a green power candle closing above recent bars, ideally on expanding volume.
🔹 Purpose: Build a position only when strength is evident.

Layer 3 – Breakout Confirmation (₱0.55–₱0.57 range)
🔹 Capital: ₱2,500 (25%)
🔹 Rationale: If price breaks above the 20-week and 50-week MAs, we add with conviction.
🔹 Purpose: Support a sustained breakout thesis and trend reversal.

Layer 4 – Momentum Add-on (₱0.60–₱0.62 range)
🔹 Capital: ₱2,500 (25%)
🔹 Rationale: Add only if strong momentum continues past ₱0.60 on bullish volume.
🔹 Purpose: Maximize gains if a new trend establishes.

⚠️ Important: If price breaks down below ₱0.45, pause accumulation and reassess.

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6. Phased Exit Plan for ARA

Once accumulation is complete and price begins trending upward, execute a phased exit strategy to protect profits and manage risk.

Target Zone 1 – ₱0.60–₱0.65
🔹 Sell 25% of total shares
🔹 Rationale: This zone marks early resistance and a common fade level. Lock in partial gains early.

Target Zone 2 – ₱0.70–₱0.75
🔹 Sell next 35%
🔹 Rationale: Likely midpoint rally resistance from 2024’s distribution zone. A reasonable medium-term objective.

Target Zone 3 – ₱0.80–₱0.85
🔹 Sell next 30%
🔹 Rationale: Major psychological resistance and prior range ceiling from early 2024.

Final Exit (Hold remainder for trail)
🔹 Sell last 10% only if price weakens or tops near ₱0.90–₱1.00
🔹 Use a trailing stop-loss to ride extended moves higher.

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🧭 Summary Strategy for New Investors in ARA

• Start slow, test the base at ₱0.48–₱0.50.

• Add with conviction only on power bar breakouts or strong volume above ₱0.55.

• Don’t fully commit your ₱10,000 in one shot—spread across four stages.

• Exit in phases, not all at once, to lock profits and reduce emotional trading.

• Watch ₱0.45 as your invalidation level.

This layered strategy honors the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant, aligning with disciplined entry, risk-managed positioning, and opportunistic profit-taking.

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Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

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