Showing posts with label Technical Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Technical Analysis. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 19, 2025

Stock Price Follow-Up Review: Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE) Morning Chart as of February 19, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Stock Recommendation
  • Next Steps

I. Introduction

This follow-up review examines Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE) based on the morning session chart as of February 19, 2025.

MONDE recently attempted to break above the 9.13 resistance zone, following a strong close on February 18, 2025, at 8.45 with a volume surge of 10.465M, exceeding its target breakout volume of 10.41M.

This review will determine whether MONDE’s bullish momentum is sustainable and whether a buy opportunity exists using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 3.0.

Updated Trade Details (Morning Session – February 19, 2025)

  • Date: February 19, 2025
  • Stock: Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE)
  • Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
  • Timeframe: Morning Chart (End of Morning Session)
  • Opening Price: 8.45
  • High: 8.60
  • Low: 8.28
  • Current Price: 8.52
  • 20-MA (Short-Term Trend): 7.51
  • 200-MA (Long-Term Trend): 9.55

Volume Analysis (Morning Session – February 19, 2025)

  • Morning Volume: 3.825M
  • Closing Volume (February 18, 2025): 10.465M
  • 30-day Volume Average: 9.671M
  • 65-day Volume Average: 7.122M
  • Target Breakout Volume (65-day x 1.5 volume average): 10.41M

With MONDE’s price hovering near the 9.13 key breakout level, this analysis will evaluate whether the stock can sustain its bullish move or if a pullback is expected.

MONDE morning session chart with technical indicators as of February 19, 2025

MONDE Morning Session Stock Charts as of February 19, 2025


II. Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

  • Daily Chart:

    • MONDE continues to trade below the 200-day MA (9.55), meaning the long-term trend remains bearish.
    • However, the price is now well above the 20-day MA (7.51), indicating strong short-term bullish momentum.

  • Monthly Chart:

    • The stock is attempting a recovery from the 6.65 low, but it remains below the 20-MA (9.14).

➡ Verdict: Wait (Short-term bullish momentum is strong, but long-term downtrend remains).

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones

  • MONDE is currently at the 57% retracement level, slightly above the power move sweet spot of 8.47 - 9.13.
  • A break above 9.13 with strong volume would confirm a bullish continuation.

➡ Verdict: Watch for Breakout Above 9.13 (Critical Level for Bulls).

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation

  • MONDE closed with high volume (10.465M) on February 18, 2025, exceeding the 10.41M breakout target, indicating strong buying interest.
  • However, the morning session volume (3.825M) is lower, meaning momentum must be sustained throughout the day.

➡ Verdict: Buy on Further Strength (Monitor closing volume for confirmation).

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals

  • A full confirmation occurs if MONDE closes above 9.13 with strong volume.
  • The key resistance levels:
    • Short-term: 9.13
    • Mid-term: 9.55 (200-MA)

➡ Verdict: Small Entry Possible (Full confirmation needed).

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management

  • If entering long, a stop-loss should be placed below 8.00 to protect against downside risk.
  • A drop below 7.50 would signal further weakness.

➡ Verdict: Buy with Risk Management (Stop-loss at 8.00).

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation

  • Another green candle has formed, reinforcing bullish sentiment.
  • However, confirmation of bullish structure requires a sustained close above 9.13.

➡ Verdict: Wait (Needs a strong close above 9.13).

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits

  • Profit targets:
    • Short-term: 9.13
    • Mid-term: 9.55 (200-MA)
    • Long-term: 10.50

➡ Verdict: Hold Position, Take Partial Profits at 9.13 and 9.55.

Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones

  • Re-enter near 8.15 if support holds.
  • Buy on a confirmed breakout at 9.13.

➡ Verdict: Watch for Re-Entry on Retracement or Breakout.

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments

  • Core Position: Initiate if MONDE holds above 9.13 with volume confirmation.
  • Tactical Entry: A small position can be taken near 8.52, increasing size upon confirmation above 9.13.

➡ Verdict: Small Position Possible Near 8.52, Increase Size Above 9.13.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations

  • No counter-trend trade is recommended since MONDE is trading within a breakout structure.

➡ Verdict: Avoid Counter-Trend Trading.

III. Final Stock Recommendation

Final Trade Recommendation: BUY (With Confirmation)

✅ Recommendation: Buy if MONDE holds above 9.13 with strong volume.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss at 8.00 to manage downside risk.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Target prices at 9.13 (short-term), 9.55 (mid-term), and 10.50 (long-term).

✅ Position Size Strategy: Start small near 8.52, increase size upon confirmation above 9.13.

IV. Next Steps

🔹 Short-term traders: Monitor if MONDE sustains above 9.13 before taking full positions.

🔹 Long-term investors: Consider small entries near 8.52 with a stop at 8.00, then add if volume strengthens.

🔹 Existing holders: Monitor breakout confirmation above 9.13 before adding positions.

🚨 Final Thought: MONDE continues its breakout attempt. A strong close above 9.13 with volume confirmation is the key signal to watch. 🚨


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Tuesday, February 18, 2025

Stock Price Review: Universal Robina Corporation (URC) Daily Chart as of February 17, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Stock Recommendation
  • Next Steps

I. Introduction

Universal Robina Corporation (URC) is a major player in the Philippine stock market, known for its strong market presence in the food and beverage industry. This review will analyze its price movement using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 3.0 to determine the best trade decision.

Trade Details

  • Date: February 17, 2025
  • Stock: Universal Robina Corporation (URC)
  • Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
  • Timeframe: Daily
  • Closing Price: 63.95
  • High: 65.90
  • Low: 63.30
  • 20-MA (Short-Term Trend): 63.30
  • 200-MA (Long-Term Trend): 94.49

Pullback Under Consideration

  • Start of Power Move Date: January 14, 2025
  • Start of Power Move (100% Pullback): 75.00
  • End of Power Move Date: February 12, 2025
  • End of Power Move (0% Pullback): 59.70
  • Power Move Trend: Bearish
  • Power Move Sweet Spot: 68.12 - 71.18
  • Market Price To Date: 70.20
  • Pullback Level To Date: 69%

Volume Analysis (as of February 17, 2025)

  • Closing Volume: 2.49M
  • 30-day Volume Average: 2.68M
  • 65-day Volume Average: 2.61M
  • Target Breakout Volume (65-day x 1.5 Volume Average): 3.92M

The following analysis will apply our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy to determine whether URC presents a buy, sell, or hold opportunity.

URC stock daily chart with technical indicators as of February 17, 2025


URC stock monthly chart with technical indicators as of February 17, 2025

URC Daily and Monthly Stock Charts as of February 17, 2025


II. Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

  • The daily chart shows a downtrend phase with URC trading well below its 200-day MA (94.49).
  • The price is hovering around the 20-day MA (63.30), signaling a potential short-term consolidation after a steep decline.
  • The monthly chart confirms the long-term downtrend, with the 200-MA (113.94) acting as resistance.

➡ Verdict: Wait (Needs confirmation of trend reversal).

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones

  • The stock is currently below the 200-day MA, indicating a bearish macro trend.
  • The price is approaching the 70% retracement level (69%), making it a high-risk zone for long trades unless a reversal occurs.
  • Ideal bullish entry should be within the 25%-45% pullback range, meaning the stock is still in a danger zone for continued downside.

➡ Verdict: Wait (Not yet in a favorable entry zone).

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation

  • A green candle with increased volume was seen on February 17, 2025, indicating short-term buying interest.
  • However, breakout volume (3.92M) has not been met, suggesting weak confirmation.

➡ Verdict: Wait (Volume does not yet confirm breakout).

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals

  • The price is still below the key resistance zone (68.12 - 71.18).
  • A confirmed reversal pattern (e.g., higher lows or a strong bullish breakout above the sweet spot) is needed before entry.

➡ Verdict: Wait (Needs confirmation of a breakout above 71.18).

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management

  • If entering a long position, an initial stop-loss should be set below the recent swing low (59.70).
  • Risk remains high due to lack of volume confirmation.

➡ Verdict: Wait (Risk is still high for new positions).

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation

  • No clear color change pattern yet to confirm a trend reversal.
  • The stock remains inside a bearish channel with no strong green bar confirmation above key resistance.

➡ Verdict: Wait (Needs clear color change confirmation).

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits

  • Profit targets should be 75.00 for conservative exits and 80.00 for more aggressive ones.
  • However, since an entry is not confirmed, taking profits is not yet applicable.

➡ Verdict: Not applicable yet (Entry not confirmed).

Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones

  • If the stock reclaims 71.18 with strong volume, a re-entry can be considered.
  • Alternatively, a pullback to 60.00 with bullish reversal confirmation could be another re-entry point.

➡ Verdict: Wait (Monitor breakout levels before re-entry).

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments

  • Core Position: Not recommended yet due to uncertain trend.
  • Tactical Entry: Possible near 60.00 if a bullish reversal occurs or above 71.18 with strong volume.

➡ Verdict: Wait (No adjustment needed until a clearer trend forms).

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations

  • Counter-trend trading is not advisable yet since there hasn’t been a gap-down of more than 5% below the 200-MA or two consecutive large red candles near lows.

➡ Verdict: Avoid Counter-Trend Trading (No clear reversal setup).

III. Final Stock Recommendation

Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD/WAIT

✅ Recommendation: Wait for a breakout above 71.18 before considering a long position.
✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss should be set below 59.70 if entering a trade.
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Target prices at 75.00 (conservative) and 80.00 (aggressive).
✅ Position Size Strategy: Start with a small position upon breakout confirmation, then add gradually.

IV. Next Steps

🔹 Short-term traders: Avoid buying until a confirmed breakout above 71.18 occurs.
🔹 Long-term investors: May consider waiting for stabilization near 60.00 before adding positions.
🔹 Existing holders: Should monitor breakout confirmation or further downside risks before adjusting positions.
🚨 Final Thought: This is not the ideal entry point yet. A clearer bullish confirmation is required before taking action. 🚨


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Stock Price Review: Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE) Daily Chart as of February 17, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Stock Recommendation
  • Next Steps

I. Introduction

Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE) is a major food and beverage player in the Philippine stock market. As of February 17, 2025, MONDE has shown a recovery attempt after its bearish power move from 9.95 to 6.65. The stock has now retraced to a pullback level of 57%, positioning it near the power move sweet spot of 8.47 - 9.13.

This review will apply the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 3.0 to determine whether MONDE presents a buy, sell, or hold opportunity.

Trade Details

  • Date: February 17, 2025
  • Stock: Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE)
  • Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
  • Timeframe: Daily
  • Closing Price: 8.15
  • High: 8.20
  • Low: 7.92
  • 20-MA (Short-Term Trend): 7.36
  • 200-MA (Long-Term Trend): 9.57

Pullback Under Consideration

  • Start of Power Move Date: November 20, 2024
  • Start of Power Move (100% Pullback): 9.95
  • End of Power Move Date: January 31, 2025
  • End of Power Move (0% Pullback): 6.65
  • Power Move Trend: Bearish
  • Power Move Sweet Spot: 8.47 - 9.13
  • Market Price To Date: 8.52
  • Pullback Level To Date: 57%

Volume Analysis (as of February 17, 2025)

  • Closing Volume: 7.56M
  • 30-day Volume Average: 9.47M
  • 65-day Volume Average: 6.94M
  • Target Breakout Volume (65-day x 1.5 volume average): 10.41M

While MONDE has entered a technical retracement zone, volume has not yet fully confirmed a bullish breakout. Let’s proceed with the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy analysis.

MONDE stock daily chart with technical indicators as of February 17, 2025


MONDE stock monthly chart with technical indicators as of February 17, 2025

MONDE Daily and Monthly Stock Charts as of February 17, 2025


II. Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

  • Daily Chart:

    • MONDE is still in a long-term downtrend, as it trades below the 200-day MA (9.57).
    • However, it has reclaimed the 20-day MA (7.36), indicating short-term bullish momentum.

  • Monthly Chart:

    • The stock has bounced from the recent low (6.65) but remains below the 20-MA (9.14).
    • This suggests that long-term recovery is uncertain, and further confirmation is needed.

➡ Verdict: Wait (Short-term bullish, but long-term trend is still down).

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones

  • MONDE is in the 57% pullback zone, right above the sweet spot (8.47 - 9.13).
  • A break above 9.13 would confirm a bullish continuation.
  • A rejection below 8.47 would indicate a failed recovery and a possible retest of 7.50 or lower.

➡ Verdict: Watch for Breakout Above 9.13 (Key Decision Zone).

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation

  • MONDE has printed multiple green candles, but breakout volume is missing (current volume = 7.56M vs. target breakout volume = 10.41M).
  • The stock needs a surge in volume above 10.41M to confirm a breakout.

➡ Verdict: Wait (Volume is below breakout threshold).

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals

  • An ideal buy entry would be on a break above 9.13 with strong volume.
  • Current resistance levels:
    • Short-term: 8.47 - 9.13
    • Mid-term: 9.57 (200-MA)

➡ Verdict: Wait (Buy on breakout above 9.13 with strong volume).

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management

  • If entering long, stop-loss should be placed below 7.50 to protect against downside risk.
  • A drop below 6.65 would indicate further downside pressure.

➡ Verdict: Buy only with risk management (Stop-loss at 7.50).

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation

  • MONDE has shown consistent green candles, signaling bullish momentum.
  • However, it needs to sustain this trend above key resistance levels.

➡ Verdict: Wait (Needs sustained strength above 9.13).

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits

  • Profit targets:
    • Short-term: 9.13
    • Mid-term: 9.57
    • Long-term: 10.50

➡ Verdict: Hold with profit-taking at key resistance zones.

Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones

  • Buy on retracement near 8.00 if support holds.
  • Breakout entry at 9.13 for momentum continuation.

➡ Verdict: Watch for re-entry on retracement or confirmed breakout.

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments

  • Core Position: Entry should be considered above 9.13 with volume confirmation.
  • Tactical Entry: A smaller position may be taken near 8.15, but only if support holds.

➡ Verdict: Small position possible near 8.15, full position upon breakout.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations

  • Counter-trend trades are not recommended unless the stock retests 7.00 with a bullish reversal pattern.

➡ Verdict: Avoid Counter-Trend Trading.

III. Final Stock Recommendation

Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD/WAIT

✅ Recommendation: Wait for a breakout above 9.13 before entering.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss below 7.50 to minimize downside risk.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Target prices at 9.13 (short-term), 9.57 (mid-term), and 10.50 (long-term).

✅ Position Size Strategy: Start small near 8.15 if support holds, increase size upon breakout confirmation.

IV. Next Steps

🔹 Short-term traders: Avoid entering until MONDE clears 9.13 with strong volume.

🔹 Long-term investors: Monitor for stability above 8.15 before considering accumulation.

🔹 Existing holders: Consider reducing exposure if price fails to break 9.13.

🚨 Final Thought: MONDE is in a potential reversal phase but needs confirmation above 9.13. A breakout with volume is required for a buy signal. 🚨


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Wednesday, February 5, 2025

Summary of the Chronological Evolution of Our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy (January 16, 2025 – February 2025)

Contents:

  • Phase 1: Initial Testing of the Strategy
  • Phase 2: Expanding to Multiple Stocks
  • Major Refinements
  • How These Refinements Prepared Us
  • Recommendations for February 2025
  • Conclusion

Since January 16, 2025, our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy has undergone significant refinements based on live testing through our Budget Ethical Trading Account (BETA). Initially, we focused on single-stock execution using daily charts, but as our understanding deepened, we expanded the approach to multiple stocks and incorporated monthly charts for broader trend confirmation.

Chart depicting the evolution of the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy with key trading adjustments and portfolio refinements

 Evolution of Our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy – Key Refinements and Live Trading Insights


Phase 1: Initial Testing of the Strategy (January 16 – January 21, 2025)

  • We started with URC as the primary test stock, refining entry and exit strategies using our Modified 10-Step Trading Plan.
  • Trading frequency was limited to one entry and exit per week, avoiding overtrading and excessive transaction costs.
  • Entries were strictly based on daily charts, with stop-loss discipline introduced early.
  • Tactical entries were balanced against core positions to enhance execution and minimize risk.

Phase 2: Expanding to Multiple Stocks (January 21 – February 2025)

  • January 21, 2025: Completed Phase 1, after exiting URC due to price weakness, highlighting the importance of disciplined execution.
  • January 23, 2025: Began testing multiple stocks (URC, MONDE, ALLHC, DDMPR, and RCR) while applying the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy for trade evaluations.
  • January 24, 2025: Conducted our first trade evaluation (URC – Trade No. 3), reinforcing the importance of volume confirmation and trade rating assessments.
  • January 31, 2025: Implemented a BETA Portfolio Rebalancing to refine position sizing and sector diversification.

Major Refinements to the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy

As our live testing evolved, we made key adjustments that prepared us for the portfolio-wide rebalancing on January 31, 2025:

  1. Shift from Single-Stock Testing to Portfolio-Wide Application

    • Initially, we tested the strategy on URC alone but later expanded to 11 stocks, requiring a new way of assessing trade performance.
    • New Rule: Live testing must now include at least 20 trades per stock rather than 20 trades overall.

  2. Integration of Monthly Charts for Long-Term Trend Confirmation

    • While the daily chart remains useful for tactical adjustments, we realized that monthly charts provide a more reliable trend context.
    • New Rule: Monthly charts are now our primary timeframe, while daily charts are used for monitoring daily volume trends and short-term setups.

  3. Emphasis on Dynamic Stop-Loss Adjustments

    • Early on, we found that rigid stop-losses were too restrictive, leading to premature exits.
    • New Rule: Implement a hybrid approach with hard stop-losses for deep protection and dynamic stop-losses for trade flexibility.

  4. Stronger Trade Evaluation Metrics & Risk-Reward Adjustments

    • By January 24, 2025, we introduced trade rating scores (6.6–8.8 out of 10) to assess entry logic, risk management, and trade execution.
    • New Rule: Trades must have a minimum 7/10 rating before execution to ensure quality setups.

  5. Portfolio-Wide Adjustments & Tactical Rebalancing (January 31, 2025)

    • The market's high volatility necessitated reallocating capital across multiple stocks to reduce single-stock exposure.
    • New Rule: Implemented BETA Portfolio Rebalancing to increase diversification and avoid concentration risk.

How These Refinements Prepared Us for the January 31, 2025 Portfolio Rebalancing

Our gradual refinement of the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy ensured that we were well-positioned to handle the market conditions leading up to January 31, 2025:

  1. Portfolio Expansion Decision

    • Our realization that 20 trades were insufficient for a true strategy evaluation led us to extend testing to 20 trades per stock.
    • This allowed us to apply the strategy across different market conditions and stock types, avoiding a biased assessment.

  2. Risk Control & Dynamic Trade Adjustments

    • The introduction of dynamic stop-losses and volume confirmation helped us exit positions at the right time, minimizing losses.
    • The new rule of waiting for volume-backed breakouts saved us from premature entries.

  3. Emphasis on Higher-Quality Trade Setups

    • The 7/10 trade rating threshold ensured that we only executed high-probability trades, reducing unnecessary risks.
    • This forced us to maintain discipline, even when multiple stocks showed potential but lacked sufficient confirmation.

  4. Strategic Portfolio Rebalancing

    • By January 31, 2025, we had a clearer understanding of which stocks aligned best with our trading approach.
    • This led to rebalancing our BETA portfolio, ensuring that we had the right mix of core holdings and tactical trades.

Recommendations for February 2025

With our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy now optimized for live market conditions, our next steps focus on further refinement and disciplined execution:

1. Execute the 20-Trade Per Stock Rule

  • Our testing must now be expanded to at least 20 trades per stock, ensuring a comprehensive evaluation.
  • This will allow us to compare performance across different stocks and market conditions.

2. Strengthen Monthly Chart Implementation

  • While the daily chart remains important, our primary trading decisions will now be based on monthly charts.
  • This will filter out short-term noise and focus on broader trend movements.

3. Enhance Volume Analysis for Entry & Exit Decisions

  • No trade should be executed without volume confirmation supporting the setup.
  • Institutional selling pressure must be considered before entering any trade.
  • New Rule: We shall only enter breakouts with above-average volume, ensuring institutional support.

4. Maintain Disciplined Execution & Trade Rating System

  • We must continue using the 7/10 trade rating system to ensure that only high-quality trades are executed.
  • No deviation from the strategy is allowed—absolute discipline is required.

5. Adapt to Market Conditions & Adjust Position Sizing

  • Given the volatility observed in January 2025, February’s market conditions must dictate position sizes.
  • New Rule: Core positions should remain steady, but tactical entries should be adjusted based on risk-reward ratios.

Conclusion

With the lessons learned from January 2025, we are entering February 2025 with a fully refined version of our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy. The decision to expand testing to 20 trades per stock, focus on monthly charts, and strictly enforce volume-backed breakouts ensures that we execute our trades with absolute discipline.

Our next goal is to execute a minimum of 20 trades per stock with full adherence to the strategy. After completing this expanded live testing, we will conduct a final performance review to determine the overall effectiveness of the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy.

🚀 February 2025 marks the next evolution of our trading journey. The strategy is set—now, it’s all about disciplined execution. 🚀

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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URC Trade Evaluation: 4 of 20 Trades Phase 2 Live Testing Review as of February 4, 2025 – Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Performance Score

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • URC Trade Summary (Live Testing Phase 2)
  • Step-by-Step Performance Evaluation (10-Point Rating System)
  • Final Trade Performance Score & Insights
  • Next Steps & Adjustments


Introduction

Universal Robina Corporation (URC) has been part of our 20-Trades Phase 2 Live Testing to assess the effectiveness of our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy. This review covers 4 trades executed between January 21, 2025, and February 4, 2025, focusing on trade execution, decision-making, and risk management.

Key Objectives:

✅ Evaluate trade performance based on technical execution.

✅ Assign ratings using a 10-point scoring system for each step.

✅ Provide insights and necessary adjustments to refine our strategy.


URC stock price monthly chart analysis for live testing under Hybrid 10-Step Strategy as of February 4, 2025.

URC Price Monthly Chart Evaluation – 20-Trade Phase 2 Live Testing as of February 4, 2025.


URC stock price daily chart analysis for live testing under Hybrid 10-Step Strategy as of February 4, 2025.

URC Price Daily Chart Evaluation – 20-Trade Phase 2 Live Testing as of February 4, 2025.



URC Trade Summary (Live Testing Phase 2)Trade History:

Trade 1/20: January 21, 2025 – BUY 50 shares at Php 65.95

Trade 2/20: January 23, 2025 – BUY 50 shares at Php 66.85

Trade 3/20: January 31, 2025 – SELL 100 shares at Php 64.10

Trade 4/20: February 4, 2025 – BUY 50 shares at Php 58.00

Financial Performance Summary:

✅ Total Gain/Loss as of February 4, 2025: Net loss of Php 1,823.04

✅ URC Current Price: Php 57.95 (February 4, 2025)

✅ Technical Review:

  • Monthly Chart: Price is well below the 200-MA (Php 113.91) and 20-MA (Php 101.85), confirming a long-term downtrend.

  • Daily Chart: Price is trading below the 200-MA (Php 95.93) and 20-MA (Php 69.19), signaling short-term bearish pressure.


Step-by-Step Performance Evaluation (10-Point Rating System)

Step 1: Market State & Trend Context

✅ Evaluation: URC is in a confirmed downtrend, trading significantly below the 20-MA and 200-MA. Despite this, re-entry at Php 58 was based on increased volume.

🔹 Score: 7/10 (Good awareness of the trend, but early re-entry in a weak market.)

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones

✅ Evaluation: Price was far below key moving averages, increasing downside risk. Entry was made where consolidation was expected but lacked strong confirmation.

🔹 Score: 6/10 (Good setup, but better entry confirmation needed.)

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation

✅ Evaluation: Entry at Php 58 saw volume rise to 3.782M, but power bars were absent, suggesting weak conviction.

🔹 Score: 5/10 (Entry volume was good, but price action was weak.)

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals

✅ Evaluation: No significant bullish reversal signals were present at the time of entry, increasing the risk of a continuation of the downtrend.

🔹 Score: 4/10 (Weak technical confirmation.)

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management

✅ Evaluation: A tight stop-loss strategy was implemented, but entering a downtrend still posed high risk.

🔹 Score: 6/10 (Managed risk effectively but better entry was needed.)

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation

✅ Evaluation: Candlestick patterns did not strongly indicate a trend reversal, and a potential dead-cat bounce was a concern.

🔹 Score: 5/10 (No strong reversal signals confirmed.)

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits

✅ Evaluation: Partial exits were considered but not effectively executed as price continued downward.

🔹 Score: 5/10 (Needed better execution of profit-taking.)

Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones

✅ Evaluation: Re-entry at Php 58 seemed reasonable but lacked strong technical backing.

🔹 Score: 6/10 (Better confirmation needed before re-entering.)

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments

✅ Evaluation: Position sizing was moderate but could have been adjusted based on bearish continuation.

🔹 Score: 6/10 (More flexible adjustments required.)

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations

✅ Evaluation: Entering against a strong downtrend was risky without two consecutive gap-downs.

🔹 Score: 4/10 (More conservative approach needed.)

Final Performance Score: 57/100 (Needs Improvement)


Final Trade Performance Score & Insights

✅ Key Takeaways:

  • Good volume analysis, but weak price action confirmation.

  • Entering below moving averages increased downside risk.

  • Improvements needed in patience for trend confirmation and more tactical position sizing.

Justification of URC Trade 4/20

Key Observations:

  • URC remains far below both moving averages, reinforcing strong bearish momentum.
  • The recent re-entry at ₱58.00 was based on:
  • Significant volume (3.782M), indicating potential institutional activity.
  • Price stabilizing between ₱57.80 – ₱61.25, suggesting early bottoming signals.

Justification for Re-Entry at ₱58.00:

Despite the overall downtrend, our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy allowed a re-entry based on:

✅ Significant Trading Volume: At 3.782M, volume was high, implying potential accumulation.

✅ Oversold Condition: Price is significantly below the 20-MA and 200-MA, indicating a possible rebound.

✅ Stable Range Formation: ₱57.80 – ₱61.25 held firm, reducing immediate downside risk.


Next Steps & Adjustments

Tactical Adjustments:

  • Monitor price action near Php 57.80 – Php 61.25.

  • Avoid premature re-entry unless bullish confirmation emerges.

  • Use a tight stop-loss strategy to prevent further downside risk.

Future Trading Considerations:

🔹 Short-term traders: Wait for a breakout above the 20-MA before entering.

🔹 Long-term investors: Accumulate cautiously near strong support levels.

🔹 Existing holders: Reassess stop-loss and take-profit zones based on new trends.

🚨 Final Thought: Trend confirmation is key. Avoid catching a falling knife without clear signals. 🚨

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Sunday, January 26, 2025

MER (Manila Electric Company) Stock Analysis: January 24, 2025

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

Evaluating MER’s Closing Chart Using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy

Trade Details

  • Stock: Manila Electric Company (MER)
  • Market: PSE (Philippine Stock Exchange)
  • Timeframe: 1-Day (Daily)
  • Closing Price: ₱486.00 (-1.42%)
  • Day’s Range: ₱486.00 - ₱494.40
  • 20-MA: ₱484.71 (Short-Term Trend)
  • 200-MA: ₱421.92 (Long-Term Trend)
  • Volume: 164.98K (SMA 9)
Manila Electric Company (MER) stock chart with moving averages and retracement levels marked for analysis.

MER stock price analysis on January 24, 2025, showing key pullback levels and trend indicators.


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

  • Trend: MER remains in an uptrend as the price is above both the 20-day moving average (₱484.71) and the 200-day moving average (₱421.92).
  • Positioning: The price remains in a consolidation phase near the previous resistance of ₱500. However, a pullback from recent highs suggests some short-term selling pressure.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Moving Averages & Key Levels

  • The price is trading slightly above the 20-MA, indicating that the short-term trend remains intact.
  • The 50% Sweet Spot Pullback level is ₱476.85, which could serve as a potential support zone.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength

  • No strong green power bars are present in the latest price action.
  • The recent red candles indicate a retracement, but the price is still holding above the 20-MA, suggesting a healthy pullback rather than a reversal.

Step 4: Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies

  • The price is currently near the 25% Sweet Spot Pullback (₱490.18).
  • If a bullish reversal forms in the next session, it could signal an entry opportunity.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

  • Stop-loss should be set below the 50% pullback level (₱476.85).
  • A deeper retracement towards ₱450.20 (100% pullback) would indicate a trend failure.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

  • A bullish reversal candle (green bar) near the 25%-50% pullback zone would confirm a potential buy signal.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

  • First target: ₱503.50 (Recent high)
  • Second target: ₱510+ (Breakout potential)

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

  • If MER retests the ₱476.85 level and bounces, another entry opportunity may emerge.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

  • Larger positions can be taken near the 33%-50% retracement zone (₱476-₱490).
  • If the price falls below ₱450, the trend would likely be invalidated.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

  • Since MER is in an uptrend, counter-trend trades are not advisable unless a complete trend reversal occurs.

Final Trade Assessment

✅ Bullish Outlook: Despite the pullback, the price remains above key support levels and the short-term moving average.

⚠️ Key Levels to Watch:

  • Support: ₱484.71 (20-MA), ₱476.85 (50% pullback)
  • Resistance: ₱503.50 (previous high), ₱510 (breakout level)

📌 Strategy Moving Forward:

  • Watch for a bullish reversal candle near ₱476-₱490.
  • Enter with confirmation and set a stop-loss below ₱476.85.
  • First target: ₱503.50; Second target: ₱510+.

Next Steps

  • Traders should monitor if MER stabilizes near the 25%-50% pullback zone.
  • A bounce above ₱490 would confirm the continuation of the uptrend.
  • A break below ₱476 would indicate further downside risk.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Saturday, January 25, 2025

Evaluating RFM Corporation (PSE) Closing Chart Using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

Trade Details

  • Stock: RFM Corporation (PSE)

  • Date: January 24, 2025

  • Closing Price: 3.92 PHP

  • Daily Change: -0.05 (-1.26%)

  • Volume: 182K

  • 20-Day Moving Average (MA20): 3.92 PHP

  • 200-Day Moving Average (MA200): 3.77 PHP

Technical chart of RFM Corporation with moving averages and retracement levels.

RFM Corporation (PSE) closing chart analysis as of January 24, 2025


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

  • The stock is currently above the 200-day MA, indicating an uptrend.

  • The price is hovering around the 20-day MA, showing short-term consolidation after a recent move up.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to MAs & Key Levels

  • Price is at the 20-MA level, which acts as dynamic support.

  • The 200-MA is far below, reinforcing the bullish long-term trend.

  • Pullback Zones Identified:

    • 0% Pullback: 3.70 PHP

    • 50% Bullish Reversal Pullback: 3.87 PHP

    • 75% Bullish Reversal Pullback: 3.96 PHP

    • 100% Pullback: 4.04 PHP

Step 3: Identify Power Bars & Retracement Strength

  • The price recently broke out above key resistance levels and is now pulling back.

  • A mid-range retracement is in progress, aligning with a 50% pullback zone.

  • No significant bearish power bars yet, suggesting support might hold.

Step 4: Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies

  • The stock is testing the 20-MA as support.

  • A reversal signal (e.g., a green candlestick with volume confirmation) at the 50%-75% retracement zone could be an entry trigger.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

  • Logical Stop-Loss: Below 3.87 PHP (50% pullback).

  • Aggressive Stop-Loss: Below 3.70 PHP (0% pullback), which invalidates the uptrend.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

  • If the next candle turns green with a bullish close above the 20-MA, this would strengthen the buying signal.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

  • Short-term target: 3.96 PHP (75% pullback level)

  • Medium-term target: 4.04 PHP (previous high, 100% pullback level)

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

  • If the stock bounces off the 50% retracement (3.87 PHP) and then dips again, a re-entry could be possible.

  • A break below 3.70 PHP would invalidate the bullish setup.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

  • Larger position size if the price holds above the 20-MA.

  • Smaller position size if the price approaches the 50% retracement zone.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

  • A 100% retracement breakdown (below 3.70 PHP) would suggest a trend failure, triggering a bearish stance.

Final Trade Assessment

  • Bullish Bias: The uptrend remains intact, as long as the price holds above the 50% pullback level (3.87 PHP) and the 20-MA (3.92 PHP).

  • Key Level to Watch: A strong green reversal candle at or above 3.87 PHP with volume confirmation.

  • Trade Plan:

    • Entry: If bullish confirmation appears near 3.87 PHP.

    • Stop-Loss: Below 3.70 PHP.

    • Target: 3.96 PHP (short-term) and 4.04 PHP (full recovery).

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