HALAL CORE GROWTH PORTFOLIO | Trading Simulation Capital: ₱100,000 | Subok Series
Micro Stock Trader | Ethical and Halal-Conscious Investing in the PSE
Panimula
Balikan natin si WLCON. Noong August 1 review, naka-tapak sa ₱10.00 at kumakaway sa 50‑MA—parang konting tulak na lang. Two weeks later, may konting preno: nag-close sa ₱9.60 at nauntog malapit sa 50‑MA. Ayos lang—nasa ibabaw pa rin ng 8‑MA at 20‑MA, ibig sabihing buhay ang short-term recovery.
Last time, sinabi nating “add on breakout or buy the dip.” Tanong ngayon: patuloy ba tayong mag-aantabay sa breakout o maghihintay muna ng mas malinaw na buwelo bago magdagdag?
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Nilalaman
1️⃣ Weekly Chart Snapshot
2️⃣ Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Evaluation
3️⃣ Hatol ng Batangueñong Trader
4️⃣ Next Steps (Tactical Plan)
5️⃣ Updated Layered Accumulation Plan
6️⃣ Updated Phased Exit Plan
7️⃣ Final Trade Recommendation
8️⃣ Closing Reflection
1️⃣ Weekly Chart Snapshot
Date: August 15, 2025
Stock: Wilcon Depot Inc. (WLCON)
Exchange: PSE
Timeframes: Weekly (primary), Daily (supporting)
Closing Price: ₱9.60
High: ₱10.10
Low: ₱9.32
20‑MA (Short‑Term): ₱7.73
50‑MA (Mid‑Term): ₱10.73
200‑MA (Long‑Term): ₱21.60
Ano ang nagbago mula August 1, 2025:
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Presyo: mula ₱10.00 → ₱9.60 (minor pullback).
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20‑MA umakyat ₱7.50 → ₱7.73 (short‑term trend improving).
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50‑MA bumaba ₱11.08 → ₱10.73 (nananatiling pababa—overhead resistance).
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200‑MA bahagyang bumaba ₱21.82 → ₱21.60 (long-term downtrend pa rin).
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Buod: Above 8/20‑MA, below 50‑MA; nauntog sa mid‑term resistance kaya nag-pahinga.
2️⃣ Hybrid 10‑Step Strategy Evaluation
Step 1: Market State & Trend Context
Short‑term uptrend mula sa bottom; medium/long‑term downtrend pa rin habang pababa ang 50/200‑MA.
➡ Verdict: HOLD
✅ Score: 7/10
Step 2: Price Position & Long‑Term Value Zones
Presyo above 20‑MA pero below 50‑MA—mid‑range; hindi optimal ang agresibong add.
➡ Verdict: WAIT / HOLD
✅ Score: 7/10
Step 3: Power Bars, Price & Volume
Red candle −4.95% after a multi‑week climb; momentum hindi basag, pero hindi rin power week.
➡ Verdict: HOLD
✅ Score: 7/10
Step 4: Entry Confirmation (Fundamental/Technical Triggers)
Walang fresh breakout; mas maigi ang buy‑the‑dip sa 9.10–9.40 with reversal signal.
➡ Verdict: WAIT
✅ Score: 7/10
Step 5: Stop‑Loss Policy (Thesis Violation, Not Noise)
Itaas ang tactical stop sa ₱8.60; core hard stop sa ₱8.20 (structure break).
➡ Verdict: HOLD with raised stop
✅ Score: 8/10
Step 6: Color Change Signals for Trend Validation
First red after series of greens; bantayan kung susunod ang isa pang red below 8‑MA.
➡ Verdict: WAIT
✅ Score: 7/10
Step 7: Profit‑Taking via Valuation & Growth Cycles
Initial resistance ₱10.50–₱11.00 (near 50‑MA); pwedeng mag-trim doon.
➡ Verdict: PARTIAL SELL on strength
✅ Score: 7/10
Step 8: Re‑Entry Plans After Market Dips
₱9.10–₱9.40 dip‑buy zone; deeper ₱8.80–₱8.90 if low volume selloff.
➡ Verdict: PLAN RE‑ENTRY
✅ Score: 8/10
Step 9: Position Size Planning (Long‑Term Portfolios)
Maintain moderate core; tactical adds only sa breakout > ₱10.80 or confirmed dip reversal.
➡ Verdict: MAINTAIN
✅ Score: 8/10
Step 10: Ethical & Counter‑Trend Considerations
Shariah‑screened sa ating list; walang counter‑trend attempt—discipline over FOMO.
➡ Verdict: PROCEED ETHICALLY
✅ Score: 9/10
🧮 Total Score: 75/100
(Down from 85/100 on Aug 1 dahil sa rejection near 50‑MA at red weekly candle.)
3️⃣ Hatol ng Batangueñong Trader
Kung kotse ‘to, naka-second gear na si WLCON—umandar na, pero may humps sa 50‑MA. Hindi pa oras mag-diin sa silinyador; apak muna sa preno, check side mirrors, saka humanap ng tamang buwelo.
4️⃣ Next Steps (Tactical Plan)
📌 Entry Price Ranges: ₱9.10–₱9.40 (dip‑buy with reversal); add on breakout over ₱10.80 with volume
📌 Stop‑Loss Level: Tactical ₱8.60; Core hard stop ₱8.20
📌 Target Prices: ₱10.50, ₱11.20, ₱12.50
📌 Add/Trim Plan: Trim on strength near ₱10.50–₱11.00; add only on breakout or clean dip reversal
📌 Position Strategy: Moderate core, small tactical adds; avoid overtrading habang pababa pa ang 50‑MA
5️⃣ Updated Layered Accumulation Plan (₱100,000 Allocation)
Layer 1 – Executed (Test‑to‑Core): ₱9.10, 3,000 shares ≈ ₱27,300 (~27%)
Rationale: Early trend turn above 20‑MA; risk‑managed starter.
Layer 2 – Dip Add: ₱9.30–₱9.40, 1,000 shares ≈ ₱9,350 (~9%)
Rationale: Buy‑the‑dip within rising 8/20‑MA zone.
Layer 3 – Deeper Support: ₱8.80–₱8.90, 1,500 shares ≈ ₱13,350 (~13%)
Rationale: Defensive add near higher‑low area.
Layer 4 – Breakout Add: ₱10.80–₱11.00, 1,000 shares ≈ ₱10,900 (~11%)
Rationale: Confirmation above 50‑MA.
Layer 5 – Continuation Add: ₱11.60–₱11.80, 800 shares ≈ ₱9,360 (~9%)
Total Committed (if filled): ~₱70,260 (~70%)
Remaining Cash Buffer: ~₱29,740 (~30%) for volatility & opportunities.
6️⃣ Updated Phased Exit Plan
Stage 1 – ₱10.50: Exit 800 shares (~8% of capital).
Rationale: First resistance / near 50‑MA.
Stage 2 – ₱11.20: Exit 1,000 shares (~11%).
Rationale: Breakout follow‑through check.
Stage 3 – ₱12.00: Exit 1,200 shares (~12%).
Rationale: Next resistance cluster; lock gains.
Stage 4 – ₱12.80+: Trail remainder with rising 8/20‑MA.
Rationale: Let winners run; review fundamentals/market tone.
Hard Stop Reminder: ₱8.20 (structure break).
7️⃣ Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD / WAIT TO ADD
✅ Recommendation: Hold existing Layer 1 (₱9.10). Add only on breakout > ₱10.80 with volume or dip‑reversal at ₱9.10–₱9.40.
✅ Risk Management: Tactical stop ₱8.60; hard stop ₱8.20 to guard downside.
✅ Profit Strategy: Trim near ₱10.50–₱11.00, scale out at ₱12.00–₱12.50; trail remainder.
✅ Position Size Strategy: Moderate; escalate only after 50‑MA reclaim and higher‑high confirmation.
8️⃣ Closing Reflection
Hindi lahat ng arangkada diretso paakyat. Disiplina, tawakkul, at plano ang panangga sa liko ng merkado. Huwag ipilit; hintayin ang malinaw na senyales. Sa tamang oras, kikilos tayo—ayon sa sistema, hindi sa emosyon.
Trade Simulation Update
Portfolio: Halal Core Growth Portfolio
Allocation: ₱100,000
Active Position: 3,000 shares @ ₱9.10 | Current close ₱9.60 | ~+5.5% unrealized
Quick Hatol: Hold; bantayan ang breakout sa ₱10.80 o dip‑reversal sa ₱9.10–₱9.40.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Paalala lang: Ang post na ito ay para sa informational purposes only at hindi dapat ituring na financial advice. Laging siguraduhing gumawa ng sarili mong research bago pumasok sa kahit anong trade o investment.
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