Contents:
- Applying the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan to the Daily Chart
- Week 4 (January 20-24, 2025) Trading Plan
- Final Thoughts
Our Budget Ethical Trading Account (BETA) journey has reinforced the importance of choosing the right timeframe for trade execution. After testing different approaches, we found that the daily chart is the most effective for our capital level. By applying our Modified 10-Step Trading Plan to this timeframe, we can set up trades strategically, reduce unnecessary transactions, and align better with the broader trend. The latest price action in URC (Universal Robina Corporation) provides us with a perfect opportunity to refine our approach and develop a structured plan for Week 4 (January 20-24, 2025).
URC Daily Chart as of January 16, 2025, showing a continued downtrend with price closing at Php 68.00. The chart highlights key moving averages, volume levels, and bearish momentum after breaking below the 20-day moving average (Php 76.82).
Applying the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan to the Daily Chart
Step 1: State
Current Market Condition: URC closed at Php 68.00, down Php 1.80 (-2.58%) from the previous session.
Trend: The price is below the 20-MA (Php 76.82) and the 200-MA (Php 98.31), confirming a strong bearish trend.
Volume: Increased selling pressure, with volume at 5.939M, indicating sustained downside momentum.
Step 2: Position and Location
- Previous Support (Php 70.50) has been broken, meaning we should now look at Php 67.00-Php 66.50 as the next key support zone.
- Resistance remains at Php 71.50 (our prior tactical exit level) and the 20-MA (Php 76.82).
Step 3: Assess Power Bars
- The large red bar on January 16, 2025, confirms a continuation of the downtrend.
- There is no immediate reversal signal—no bottoming tail or green candles with high volume.
Step 4: Entry Strategy (Simplifying Tactical Actions)
- New Entry Criteria for Week 4 (January 20-24, 2025):
- Only enter if the price stabilizes above Php 67.00 with a reversal candle (green hammer, engulfing candle) and high volume.
- If the price continues to drop, wait for potential buying opportunities near Php 66.00 or lower.
Step 5: Place and Monitor Stop Loss
- Hard Stop-Loss for Week 4: Php 65.50 (to avoid getting trapped in further breakdowns).
- Trailing stop to be adjusted based on price action near Php 67.00-Php 68.00.
Step 6: Color Change (Trend Confirmation Before Action)
- We will not enter until at least one strong green day appears, showing buying pressure.
- A bullish confirmation should include a higher close than the previous day with above-average volume.
Step 7: Profit Taking (Strategic Exits Based on Daily Chart)
- First tactical exit at Php 71.50 (prior support turned resistance).
- Secondary exit at Php 75.00 if momentum continues upward.
Step 8: Re-entry (Avoiding Frequent Trading)
- No intra-day re-entries—we will only re-enter if the daily chart confirms sustained bullish movement.
- If stopped out at Php 65.50, we will wait for consolidation before another entry.
Step 9: Tactical Position Management
- Reduce the number of transactions to max 2 per week:
- One well-timed entry based on support confirmation.
- One exit when a key resistance is hit (or stop-loss is triggered).
Step 10: Counter-Trend Entries (Only for Strong Reversals)
- If URC drops below Php 67.00 but quickly rebounds, we will monitor for a potential bounce trade.
- However, if no reversal signal appears, we stay out.
Week 4 (January 20-24, 2025) Trading Plan
Scenario 1: URC Stabilizes Above Php 67.00
- Action: Buy small position (50 shares) only if a green reversal candle appears with strong volume.
- Stop-Loss: Php 65.50 (to protect capital).
- Exit Target: Php 71.50 for partial take-profit.
Scenario 2: URC Drops Below Php 67.00 Without Reversal
- Action: No trade—wait for consolidation near Php 65.00-Php 66.00.
- Review Stop-Loss Placement: Adjust potential buy levels accordingly.
Scenario 3: URC Breaks Above Php 71.50
- Action: Monitor for momentum. If volume supports it, we can buy on retracement to Php 70.00-Php 70.50.
- Exit Target: Php 75.00 or trailing stop at Php 72.00.
Key Adjustments for the BETA Account
Limit Trading Frequency:
- Only one entry and one exit per week unless major trend shifts occur.
Avoid Intra-Day Trading:
- Entries will only be based on the daily chart, not smaller timeframes.
Respect Key Support and Resistance Levels:
- Php 67.00 is a critical zone—any buying must be confirmed by a green candle and volume.
- Php 71.50 is a hard resistance—exit immediately if reached.
Trade Only When the Reward Justifies the Risk:
- Minimum target price differential must be Php 3.00 per share to offset transaction costs.
Final Thoughts
Our experience over the past two weeks confirmed that the daily chart is the best timeframe for our BETA Account. By simplifying our tactical actions, focusing on stronger price moves, and avoiding intra-day noise, we can maximize capital efficiency and minimize unnecessary losses.
For Week 4, our strategy is clear: wait for a confirmation candle at Php 67.00 before entering, set a tight stop-loss, and target Php 71.50 for exits. This disciplined approach aligns with our goal of small-scale, ethical trading with cost-conscious decision-making.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
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