Financial Information Cut-off: June 30, 2026
Historical Base: Audited Annual Reports from 2021 to 2025
Latest Interim Base: First Half 2026
Primary Valuation Method: Free Cash Flow to the Firm
Reporting Currency: US dollars, converted to Philippine pesos
ICTSI entered 2026 from a position of strength—and its first-half results reinforced that position.
After reviewing five years of audited operating growth, stronger cash generation, new terminal contributions, and the company’s continuing expansion program, we are updating our ICT valuation with a deliberately forward-looking Core Anchor perspective.
We recognize the risks. Those belong in the updated Risk Management post that follows.
Here, our focus is on value, resilience, and the upside potential of the business we selected to serve as the principal anchor of Micro Harvesting 2.0.
Originally published: August 5, 2026 · Last updated: August 5, 2026
Links to related posts
- ICT Stock Study, Post 1: ICT Series Introduction
- ICT Stock Study, Post 2: ICT Fundamental Analysis
- ICT Stock Study, Post 3: ICT Technical Analysis
- ICT Stock Study, Post 4: ICT Valuation
- ICT Stock Study, Post 5: ICT Risk Management
- ICT Stock Study, Post 6: ICT Capital Allocation
- ICT Stock Study 7: ICT Updated Valuation
Ang Punto ng Usapan
Our original valuation gave us a practical framework for rebuilding our ICT position.
It established:
Estimated fair value: approximately ₱995
Margin of Safety: 5%
Valuation-based buy-below price: approximately ₱945
That framework served its purpose.
It gave us a disciplined price reference during the early formation of our ICT Core Anchor position and provided the valuation context for the transaction later documented in the MH Operator Journal.
But valuation is not static.
As new financial information becomes available, the model must evolve with the business.
Since the previous valuation, we have gained access to:
- the complete audited results for 2025;
- the full first-half 2026 operating and financial results;
- early contributions from newly added terminals;
- updated cash-flow and balance-sheet information;
- and a five-year historical record covering 2021 through 2025.
The purpose of this post is therefore not to replace our old valuation as though it never existed.
It is to move naturally from the previous framework into a stronger and more informed valuation of ICT as the Core Anchor Holding of Micro Harvesting 2.0.
From the Previous Valuation to the Updated Framework
Our previous valuation produced an estimated fair value of approximately ₱995 and a 5% margin-of-safety buy-below price of approximately ₱945.
That was the applicable valuation framework when we completed the 120-share consolidated purchase recorded in the MH Operator Journal.
The transaction was executed at an average price of ₱962 per share.
Under the previous valuation:
- the execution was approximately ₱17 above the preferred ₱945 MOS reference;
- but it remained approximately ₱33 below the ₱995 estimated fair value.
The purchase was therefore not made above our valuation of the company.
It was a valuation-supported transaction completed slightly above the preferred 5% margin-of-safety threshold.
That was why the Journal entry described the execution as a limited deviation from the preferred capital-deployment price—not as a violation of the valuation framework.
The updated valuation does not erase that conclusion.
It strengthens it.
After incorporating the audited 2021–2025 record and the company’s first-half 2026 results, we believe our previous framework placed substantial emphasis on downside protection but did not yet fully capture the probability of continued operating strength, terminal maturation, and successful expansion.
ICT has since given us more evidence.
The company did not merely preserve the operating base on which the original valuation was built.
It expanded it.
The Historical Foundation of the Valuation
Our updated valuation does not begin with one strong quarter.
It begins with five audited years showing how ICTSI developed from a post-pandemic recovery story into a larger and more profitable global terminal platform.
2021: The recovery became a stronger operating base
In 2021, ICTSI handled approximately 11.16 million TEUs and generated about US$1.87 billion in gross revenue.
The company produced approximately US$947 million in operating cash flow, while capital expenditures were approximately US$165 million.
That year established an important starting point.
ICTSI had not merely survived the disruption to global trade. Its terminals remained operational, collections remained resilient, and the business emerged with a stronger cash-generating platform.
2022: The growth continued
In 2022, gross revenue increased to approximately US$2.24 billion.
EBITDA reached approximately US$1.41 billion, while attributable net income rose to approximately US$618 million. Operating cash flow increased to around US$1.28 billion, even as capital expenditure expanded to approximately US$386 million.
The significance of 2022 was straightforward:
The 2021 improvement was not merely a temporary rebound.
The business continued to scale.
2023: The network remained strong despite a reported earnings setback
In 2023, revenue still increased to approximately US$2.39 billion, while EBITDA rose to approximately US$1.51 billion.
Reported attributable net income declined, largely because the company recognized significant impairment charges, including the remaining exposure related to Sudan.
Operating cash flow nevertheless remained strong at approximately US$1.30 billion.
This distinction matters.
The 2023 result did not indicate a collapse in ICTSI’s operating platform. It showed that even while reported earnings absorbed a major nonrecurring charge, the terminal network continued producing revenue, EBITDA, and operating cash.
2024: ICTSI moved into a higher earnings range
In 2024, gross revenue increased to approximately US$2.74 billion, EBITDA climbed to approximately US$1.78 billion, and attributable net income rebounded to around US$850 million.
Operating cash flow expanded to approximately US$1.58 billion, while the company continued investing in terminal capacity, equipment, and infrastructure.
ICTSI was not merely earning more.
It was preparing the platform to earn more in the future.
2025: The business reached another level
In 2025, gross revenue reached approximately US$3.23 billion, EBITDA increased to approximately US$2.14 billion, and attributable net income rose to approximately US$1.05 billion.
Throughput increased to approximately 14.50 million TEUs, compared with 11.16 million TEUs in 2021.
By early 2026, ICTSI was involved in 34 terminal operations across 20 countries. Its portfolio included new operations and long-term concession extensions that expanded both its geographical reach and the future duration of its cash-generating assets.
From 2021 to 2025, ICTSI delivered approximate compound annual growth of:
- 14.7% in revenue
- 17.1% in EBITDA
- 6.8% in throughput
The difference between physical throughput growth and financial growth is notable.
ICTSI did not depend on container volume alone.
Its results also benefited from:
- tariff adjustments;
- favorable cargo and container mix;
- ancillary services;
- improving terminal utilization;
- operating efficiencies;
- portfolio additions;
- and the gradual maturation of earlier investments.
That is the historical foundation of our upside view.
The First-Half 2026 Confirmation
The first half of 2026 gave us further evidence that the larger 2025 earnings base was not an endpoint.
For the six months ended June 30, 2026, ICTSI reported:
- throughput of approximately 8.12 million TEUs, up 16%;
- port revenues of approximately US$1.92 billion, up 27%;
- EBITDA of approximately US$1.23 billion, up 24%;
- attributable net income of approximately US$590 million, up 22%;
- and recurring attributable net income of approximately US$605 million, up 25% after excluding the Yantai disposal charge.
Diluted earnings per share increased by 23% to approximately US$0.289.
The growth was supported by the contribution of two newer operations:
- Durban Gateway Terminal in South Africa;
- and Batu Ampar Container Terminal in Indonesia.
The company also benefited from improved trade activity in Asia and the Americas, favorable container mix, tariff adjustments, ancillary-service income, and favorable translation effects in several operating currencies.
Even after excluding new and discontinued operations, consolidated revenue and EBITDA would each have increased by approximately 18%.
That is one of the most important readings in the update.
The headline growth was not based only on acquisitions.
The established terminal portfolio remained strong.
Why ICT Is Our Core Anchor Holding
ICT was not selected as the MH 2.0 Core Anchor because it was risk-free.
No equity position is.
It was selected because the business has repeatedly demonstrated the qualities we want at the center of the portfolio:
- durable operating cash flow;
- long-term concessions;
- leading positions in many of its markets;
- diversified geographic exposure;
- destination-based gateway cargo;
- strong operating margins;
- continuing expansion opportunities;
- and an established record of improving terminal performance.
As of early 2026, ICTSI’s concessions had an average remaining life of approximately 22 years. Its terminals operate across multiple regions, and no single customer contributed more than 10% of consolidated revenue in 2025.
This structure does not eliminate volatility.
It does, however, strengthen the probability that temporary weakness in one terminal, one region, or one trade route can be absorbed by the broader portfolio.
That resilience is part of the value.
It is also why we are prepared to accept measured upside risk in ICT.
For an ordinary holding, we may demand a deeply conservative valuation before committing capital.
For our Core Anchor, we must also recognize the risk of being too conservative and remaining underexposed to the strongest compounding engine in the portfolio.
Why We Continue to Use FCFF
We continue to use Free Cash Flow to the Firm, or FCFF, as our principal valuation method.
ICTSI is capital intensive.
Its business depends on:
- concession rights;
- terminal equipment;
- civil works;
- expansion projects;
- leases;
- debt financing;
- and continuing reinvestment.
A simple earnings multiple may overlook the amount of capital required to maintain and expand the network.
A dividend model would also understate value because ICTSI retains and reinvests a substantial portion of its cash generation.
FCFF allows us to value the operating business before determining how that value is divided among lenders, lessors, concession counterparties, minority owners, and common shareholders.
Our valuation therefore considers both sides of the ICT story:
the cash-generating power of the terminal network and the capital structure supporting its growth.
Normalized FCFF Base
ICTSI produced approximately US$1.023 billion in operating cash flow during the first half of 2026.
Capital expenditures for the same period were approximately US$320 million, excluding capitalized borrowing costs.
A simple annualization of the first-half cash surplus would produce an aggressive result.
Instead, we use a normalized starting FCFF of:
US$1.40 billion
This estimate is supported by:
- the progression of operating cash flow from 2021 through 2025;
- the higher 2025 earnings base;
- the first-half 2026 cash-generation run rate;
- contributions from newer terminals;
- and the continuing strength of the established portfolio.
At the same time, the normalized figure leaves room for:
- integration costs;
- continuing terminal investments;
- uneven contributions from newly acquired operations;
- and the timing differences between capital deployment and project maturity.
This is not our highest imaginable cash-flow estimate.
It is the operating base we believe can reasonably support an upside-oriented but still governed valuation.
Forecast Assumptions
Five-Year Explicit Growth
We use a five-year FCFF growth path of:
- Year 1: 8%
- Year 2: 7%
- Year 3: 6%
- Year 4: 5%
- Year 5: 4%
These assumptions are substantially lower than ICTSI’s recent reported growth rates.
That is deliberate.
We expect the business to continue expanding, but we do not extend the first-half 2026 growth rate mechanically across the entire forecast period.
The tapered growth path assumes that:
- newer terminals continue integrating;
- existing terminals preserve their operating strength;
- expansion projects gradually contribute;
- tariffs and ancillary services support revenue;
- and growth moderates as the business becomes larger.
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
Our base-case WACC remains:
8.65%
This rate reflects both the strengths and exposures of the business.
ICTSI benefits from long-term concessions, durable gateway demand, high operating margins, and a diversified global footprint.
It is also exposed to leverage, currencies, regulations, concession terms, and emerging-market conditions.
The 8.65% WACC therefore remains our consolidated valuation rate.
Terminal Growth
For our updated Core Anchor valuation, we use:
5.00% terminal growth
This is an upside-oriented assumption.
We consider it justifiable for ICT because its long-term cash flows can benefit from:
- emerging-market economic growth;
- continued global containerized trade;
- tariff adjustments;
- inflation-linked pricing effects;
- ancillary-service expansion;
- long concession durations;
- terminal capacity additions;
- and the company’s demonstrated ability to acquire, integrate, and improve port operations.
We are not presenting 5% terminal growth as a neutral assumption for every company.
It is our upside-biased Core Anchor case for ICTSI.
That distinction is intentional.
We believe the probability of ICT continuing to expand its long-term cash-generating capacity is greater than the probability that the business permanently settles into the lower end of our valuation outcomes.
Enterprise-to-Equity Adjustments
As of June 30, 2026, ICTSI reported approximately:
- US$855 million in cash and cash equivalents;
- US$3.37 billion in current and long-term borrowings;
- US$781 million in concession-right obligations;
- US$2.43 billion in lease liabilities;
- and US$608 million in non-controlling interests.
We deduct the debt-like claims and non-controlling interests, then add available cash.
We use approximately 2.019 billion outstanding common shares as of June 30, 2026.
This keeps the upside valuation disciplined.
We are giving greater probability weight to future growth, but we are not ignoring the claims that sit ahead of common shareholders.
Updated ICT Value
Using:
- normalized FCFF of approximately US$1.40 billion;
- five-year FCFF growth of 8%, 7%, 6%, 5%, and 4%;
- WACC of 8.65%;
- terminal growth of 5%;
- the updated enterprise-to-equity adjustments;
- approximately 2.019 billion common shares;
- and our USD/PHP conversion assumption;
our estimated updated ICT value is approximately:
₱1,094 per share
For practical Micro Harvesting use, we round this to:
₱1,095 per share
This is our updated upside-biased Core Anchor value.
It is not the mathematical maximum produced by the model.
The highest sensitivity outcome would require combining both a lower discount rate and a high terminal-growth assumption. We do not use that result as our official value.
Instead, we retain the base WACC of 8.65% and express our upside bias through the 5% terminal-growth case.
This gives us the highest valuation we believe can be defended without stacking every favorable assumption at the same time.
Sensitivity Analysis
The sensitivity analysis shows how estimated value changes as the WACC and terminal-growth assumptions move.
At an 8.15% WACC
With 3% terminal growth, estimated value is approximately ₱784.
With 4% terminal growth, estimated value is approximately ₱979.
With 5% terminal growth, estimated value is approximately ₱1,298.
At an 8.65% WACC
With 3% terminal growth, estimated value is approximately ₱697.
With 4% terminal growth, estimated value is approximately ₱852.
With 5% terminal growth, estimated value is approximately ₱1,094.
At a 9.15% WACC
With 3% terminal growth, estimated value is approximately ₱624.
With 4% terminal growth, estimated value is approximately ₱751.
With 5% terminal growth, estimated value is approximately ₱939.
The complete sensitivity range is therefore approximately:
₱624 to ₱1,298 per share
This is not our accumulation range.
It is a map of the valuation outcomes produced by different views of risk and long-term growth.
The lower values represent more conservative combinations.
The upper values represent stronger confidence in ICTSI’s growth durability and a lower required return.
Our official updated value of ₱1,095 is located in the upside portion of the range, but it does not rely on the lowest WACC.
We retain a normal discount rate and assign greater probability to the company’s long-term growth case.
That is how we express our upside bias without abandoning valuation governance.
Margin-of-Safety References
Using the updated ICT value of ₱1,095, the margin-of-safety references are:
- No MOS: approximately ₱1,095
- 5% MOS: approximately ₱1,040
- 10% MOS: approximately ₱986
- 15% MOS: approximately ₱931
- 20% MOS: approximately ₱876
- 25% MOS: approximately ₱821
For practical execution, we round these to:
Updated ICT Value: approximately ₱1,095
Ordinary MOS Buy-Below: approximately ₱1,040
Preferred 10% MOS Reference: approximately ₱985
15% MOS Reference: approximately ₱930
20% MOS Reference: approximately ₱875
These references allow us to remain aggressive without removing price discipline.
Our upside bias is already expressed in the valuation.
The margin of safety then protects us from estimation error, execution risk, and short-term uncertainty.
Where the MH Operator Journal Entry Now Stands
The MH Operator Journal recorded a consolidated purchase of 120 shares at ₱962.
The transaction had two purposes:
- 50 shares completed the roundtrip and restored our anchor inventory;
- 70 shares were classified as rotational trading shares.
Under the previous valuation, ₱962 was below the ₱995 fair value but slightly above the ₱945 MOS buy-below.
Under the updated value of ₱1,095, the same execution price represents an estimated discount of approximately:
12.1%
The transaction can therefore now be described as:
a BRS-supported and updated-valuation-qualified accumulation completed at an estimated margin of safety of approximately 12%.
This does not rewrite the original decision.
At the time of execution, the applicable public reference remained the old valuation. The Journal correctly disclosed the small deviation from the preferred ₱945 price.
The updated valuation simply incorporates stronger subsequent evidence and shows that the economic quality of the transaction was better than the previous model could yet demonstrate.
Where Our Existing Position Now Stands
Our broker-reported ICT average is approximately:
₱973.3866
Relative to the updated ₱1,095 value, this represents an estimated margin of safety of approximately:
11.1%
Our RTS-specific net average is approximately:
₱964.8379
Relative to the updated value, this represents an estimated margin of safety of approximately:
11.9%
Both averages remain below our preferred 10% MOS reference of approximately ₱985.
This is an important result.
Our existing ICT inventory is not merely below the updated fair value.
It remains within the updated 10% MOS area.
That strengthens the position of ICT as the MH 2.0 Core Anchor and supports our decision to retain meaningful exposure to the company’s long-term growth.
Completing the ICT Allocation
Our intended ICT position is:
Anchor Shares: 500
Rotational Trading Shares: 100
Total Allocation: 600 shares
Our current position is 570 shares.
The earlier Journal entry reserved the remaining 30 shares for ₱945 or better.
That price remains highly attractive under the updated framework. At ₱945, the discount to the updated ₱1,095 value would be approximately 13.7%.
However, ₱945 no longer needs to be treated as the only permissible accumulation price.
Under the updated valuation:
- purchases at ₱1,040 or lower are MOS-aware;
- purchases at ₱985 or lower reach our preferred 10% MOS threshold;
- purchases near ₱945 provide a stronger discount;
- purchases near ₱930 or lower approach a 15% margin of safety.
For the remaining 30 shares, we therefore retain the right to complete the allocation at ₱1,040 or lower, while preferring ₱985 or better.
Permission is not obligation.
The actual execution must still satisfy the approved technical setup, capital-allocation rules, and overall portfolio conditions.
But valuation is no longer the reason to remain unnecessarily underallocated.
The Forward-Looking Case
The central question is no longer whether ICTSI has a strong business.
The historical results have already answered that.
The more relevant question is what the company can become as the present expansion cycle matures.
ICTSI entered 2026 with:
- a larger global terminal network;
- new operations in strategic markets;
- extended concessions;
- continuing investments in capacity;
- strong established-terminal margins;
- and an expanding base of operating cash flow.
Its 2026 capital program is intended to support expansion at terminals in Mexico, the Philippines, Brazil, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Honduras, Australia, and Ecuador.
Those investments are not guaranteed to produce immediate returns.
But ICTSI has already demonstrated the operating capability to acquire, rehabilitate, expand, and improve terminals across different markets.
That track record matters.
The current capital cycle should not be viewed only as cash leaving the business.
It is also capital being positioned to generate future volume, revenues, tariffs, services, and operating cash flows.
Our valuation gives greater probability weight to that outcome.
What This Updated Valuation Means for MH 2.0
Our updated stance is positive, but not careless.
We are not removing the margin of safety.
We are not ignoring debt, leases, concessions, geopolitical exposure, or execution risk.
Those matters will be addressed directly in the updated ICT Risk Management post.
For this valuation, our judgment is that ICTSI’s strength, resilience, global diversification, and demonstrated ability to grow deserve greater weight than they received in our earlier conservative framework.
The updated value of ₱1,095 expresses that judgment.
For MH 2.0:
- ICT remains the Core Anchor Holding;
- the existing position remains valuation-supported;
- our current averages remain within the updated 10% MOS area;
- the ₱962 Journal execution is now fully MOS-qualified;
- and the remaining allocation may be completed within the updated buy-below framework when an approved technical setup appears.
This is not aggression without governance.
It is conviction supported by valuation.
Final Valuation Reading
Our updated ICT value as of August 5, 2026 is:
₱1,095 per share
Our ordinary MOS-aware buy-below price is:
₱1,040 per share
Our preferred 10% MOS reference is:
₱985 per share
Our stronger accumulation references are:
- ₱930 at approximately 15% MOS
- ₱875 at approximately 20% MOS
The previous ₱995 fair value and ₱945 buy-below framework helped guide the rebuilding of our position.
The updated framework now reflects a broader and stronger body of evidence.
ICTSI has grown through different market environments.
It has absorbed setbacks, expanded its network, improved cash generation, entered new markets, and continued investing for the next stage of growth.
That is why ICT is our Core Anchor.
Not because its price will always move upward.
Not because the company faces no risk.
But because its operating strength and resilience give us reason to believe that the probability of long-term upside remains greater than the probability of permanent downside.
There is risk in paying too much.
There is also risk in repeatedly undervaluing a strong business and remaining underexposed while it continues to grow.
For ICT, our updated valuation is prepared to take that upside risk—deliberately, transparently, and with a margin of safety still in place.
Valuation Snapshot
Valuation date: August 5, 2026
Historical annual reports used: 2021–2025
Latest interim data used: First Half 2026
Primary method: FCFF
Normalized FCFF: approximately US$1.40 billion
WACC: 8.65%
Terminal growth: 5.00%
Updated ICT value: approximately ₱1,095
5% MOS buy-below: approximately ₱1,040
10% MOS reference: approximately ₱985
15% MOS reference: approximately ₱930
20% MOS reference: approximately ₱875
Sensitivity range: approximately ₱624–₱1,298
The PSE has confirmed that its Shariah screening program is currently paused, with no new lists to be released until their internal review is completed. Although news outlets reported quarterly updates up to mid-2025, these later lists are no longer accessible on the PSE website.
For now, the PSE’s Shariah-Compliant Securities page and all past lists have been removed from the public website. The December 24, 2024 list is the last official version in Micro Stock Trader’s possession, downloaded before the page was taken down, although other investors may still hold later copies such as the reported July 4, 2025 release.
All halal-focused strategies under Micro Stock Trader will use a conservative, self-screened approach until official guidance resumes, in shā’ Allāh.
This post is for educational and documentation purposes only. It is not investment advice. Perform your own due diligence and consult qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions. All strategies, frameworks, and examples described here reflect the personal methodologies of Micro Stock Trader and are not guarantees of future performance.
Home | About Us | Contact Us | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use | Disclaimer
