ABA stock pulls back after breakout—are we still on track? We evaluate all trade actions as of June 23, 2025 using our 10-Step Strategy.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Review
- Final Stock Recommendation
- Next Steps
- Layered Accumulation Plan
- Evaluation of Adherence to Strategy
Weekly chart of ABA as of June 23, 2025 showing retracement into tactical re-entry zone
Introduction
This post evaluates our most recent trade actions on AbaCore Capital Holdings, Inc. (ABA), in alignment with the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant, using the weekly chart as of June 23, 2025.
We initially published our outlook on June 13, 2025, recommending a tactical accumulation strategy as ABA entered a bullish recovery zone. Since then, price has retraced toward key support levels. This review assesses whether our actions complied with our strategic plan and outlines what comes next.
TRADE DETAILS:
Date: June 23, 2025
Stock: AbaCore Capital Holdings, Inc. (ABA)
Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
Timeframe: Weekly
Closing Price: ₱0.63
High: ₱0.68
Low: ₱0.62
20-MA (Short-Term Trend): ₱0.52
200-MA (Long-Term Trend): ₱1.32
Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context
ABA remains in a long-term downtrend below the 200-MA. However, the price continues to establish a short-term bullish structure, despite this week’s -8.70% decline. Price remains above the 20- and 50-MA levels.
➡ Verdict: Wait – Short-term uptrend remains, but recovery is being tested.
Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones
Price has now retraced near the ₱0.63–₱0.65 support zone, within our defined deep pullback range. This zone aligns with the 50-week MA (₱0.63) and our tactical re-entry layers.
➡ Verdict: Buy zone already executed – Hold current levels.
Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation
Volume this week was solid at 12.846M, but price printed a red candle, suggesting profit-taking rather than distribution. There is no confirmation yet of bearish reversal.
➡ Verdict: No new entry – Observe next candle behavior.
Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals
Previous entries were executed above support (₱0.74, ₱0.66, ₱0.65) per strategy. Current candle shows buyers defending ₱0.62–₱0.63 area.
➡ Verdict: Entry timing was acceptable. No new buy signal yet.
Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management
With the price near our accumulation base, a protective stop-loss should be placed just below ₱0.60. A break of this level invalidates the thesis of a mid-term base.
➡ Verdict: Set stops at ₱0.59–₱0.60 to manage downside.
Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation
The transition from green to red bars signals a cooling phase. A bullish reversal candle or stabilization above the 50-MA must be observed next week.
➡ Verdict: Caution – watch for confirmation candle.
Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits
No sell signals yet triggered. However, traders should consider trimming 1,000–2,000 shares if the price fails to hold ₱0.60.
➡ Verdict: No exit for long-term holders unless ₱0.59 fails.
Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones
All planned entries have been executed. There is no need for additional buys unless ABA breaks above ₱0.80 with conviction.
➡ Verdict: Wait for breakout confirmation before reloading.
Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments
We have now deployed 80% of our Php10,000 capital. No additional adjustments are needed unless stop-loss triggers.
➡ Verdict: Hold – No further scaling required at this stage.
Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations
Not applicable. We are not in a confirmed downtrend breakdown.
➡ Verdict: Not a counter-trend setup.
Final Stock Recommendation
Final Stock Recommendation: HOLD with Stop Monitoring
✅ Recommendation: Maintain current 10,000-share position unless price breaks below ₱0.60.
✅ Risk Management: Place dynamic stop-loss at ₱0.59–₱0.60 zone to manage capital preservation.
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: First exits at ₱0.85–₱0.90 if recovery resumes.
✅ Position Size Strategy: Full layering complete. No further buys until breakout confirmation above ₱0.80.
Next Steps
🔹 Short-term traders → May consider trimming if weekly close falls below ₱0.60 with volume.
🔹 Long-term investors → Hold position; this is a healthy pullback into a defined support zone.
🔹 Existing holders → No action needed unless price breaks key support.
🚨 Final Thought: The stock is still structurally intact. However, this week’s pullback is a reality check for patience and discipline. Monitor for a reversal bar above ₱0.63 or reduce if key support breaks. 🚨
Layered Accumulation Update (as of June 23, 2025)
We now hold:
-
June 3: 6,000 shares @ ₱0.80
-
June 17: 1,000 shares @ ₱0.74
-
June 23: 2,000 shares @ ₱0.66
-
June 23: 1,000 shares @ ₱0.65
🔹 Total Shares: 10,000
🔹 Average Cost: ~₱0.799/share
🔹 Capital Deployed: ₱7,990.00
🔹 Remaining Capital Buffer: ₱2,010.00 (reserved for future confirmed breakout only)
Scored Evaluation of Trade Actions (as of June 23, 2025)
We evaluated each step of our strategy based on accuracy, discipline, and timing. The scoring rubric uses a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 representing perfect execution in line with our long-term investment plan.
Step 1 – Market State & Trend Context
✅ We correctly identified the long-term downtrend and the forming short-term recovery.
Score: 9/10
Step 2 – Price Position & Retracement Zones
✅ All entries were placed near support zones and within the designated tactical and deep pullback zones (₱0.74, ₱0.66, ₱0.65).
Score: 10/10
Step 3 – Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation
✅ We entered after the breakout signal in late May and layered in during volume-supported retracements. No chasing occurred.
Score: 9/10
Step 4 – Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals
✅ Each entry aligned with technical confirmation—either after a breakout or during structured retracement into MA support.
Score: 9/10
Step 5 – Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management
✅ Our exposure remains below the Php10,000 cap, with 80% deployed. Stops are clearly defined near ₱0.60.
Score: 10/10
Step 6 – Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation
🟡 While the green-to-red transition was noticed, a clearer confirmation pattern could have been awaited before final buys on June 23.
Score: 8/10
Step 7 – Profit-Taking Strategy with Tactical Exits
🟡 Not yet applicable, but plans for profit-taking around ₱0.85–₱0.90 are in place.
Score: 8/10
Step 8 – Potential Re-Entry Zones
✅ Executed perfectly. Re-entries were made within the re-entry zones (Layer 2 and 3) without overtrading.
Score: 10/10
Step 9 – Tactical Position Adjustments
✅ Core and tactical entries were well proportioned. The final position is within plan. No excessive averaging down occurred.
Score: 9/10
Step 10 – Counter-Trend Trading Considerations
✅ Correctly avoided premature action despite the pullback. No violation of the rules for counter-trend entries.
Score: 10/10
🔎 Overall Trade Execution Score: 92 / 100
Verdict:
A well-executed accumulation strategy with disciplined scaling, proper technical alignment, and adherence to risk controls. Minor caution in Step 6 moving forward will further improve timing and confirmation-based entries. The position is healthy, aligned with strategy, and properly managed.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
No comments:
Post a Comment