Hindi sapat na kilalanin ang TEL bilang mataas ang dividend.
Sa anim na bahagi ng TEL Stock Study, susuriin natin kung matatag ba ang negosyo, kung ano ang sinasabi ng daily chart, kung magkano ang reasonable value, kung gaano kalaki ang downside risk, at kung anong papel ang nararapat nitong gampanan sa tabi ng 500-share ICT Core Anchor.
Originally published: July 27, 2026 · Last updated: July 27, 2026
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Bakit Natin Sinimulan ang TEL Stock Study?
May mga stock na madaling lagyan ng simpleng label.
Growth stock.
Dividend stock.
Defensive stock.
Recovery stock.
Sa unang tingin, madaling ilagay ang PLDT Inc., or TEL, sa isang kahon:
Mataas ang dividend. Mature telecom company. Pangmatagalang hawak.
May bahagi ng katotohanan iyon—but it is not enough.
A high dividend does not automatically make a stock fundamentally strong.
A familiar company does not automatically make its shares fairly valued.
A mature business does not automatically mean low risk.
And a lower market price does not automatically create a buying opportunity.
This is why we are conducting a full TEL Stock Study.
Hindi lamang natin titingnan ang stock bilang ticker symbol. Susuriin natin ito as:
- an operating business;
- a dividend source;
- a technical setup;
- a valuation problem;
- a risk position;
- and a component of a wider portfolio.
Hindi Lang Ito Dividend Story
TEL has an obvious attraction for the Micro Harvesting framework: regular cash dividends.
Unlike price-based harvesting, a dividend can be received without selling the underlying shares. That makes TEL a natural candidate for the Low Volatility Dividend Harvester role.
Pero may kapalit ang dividend story.
PLDT operates a capital-intensive telecom business. It must continuously spend on:
- mobile and fiber networks;
- data capacity;
- cybersecurity;
- enterprise infrastructure;
- data centers;
- and technology upgrades.
It also carries substantial debt and financing obligations.
Therefore, the dividend cannot be studied in isolation.
We have to ask:
- Is the operating business still growing?
- Is EBITDA translating into actual cash?
- Is capital expenditure normalizing?
- Can the dividend remain sustainable?
- Is leverage becoming more manageable—or more dangerous?
- Is the market price already reflecting the good news?
The purpose of this series is to move beyond the casual conclusion that TEL is attractive simply because it pays cash dividends.
Ang Kasalukuyang TEL Position
Our current TEL position consists of: 200 anchor shares
The average net cost is: ₱1,277.4743 per share
Total net acquisition cost: 200×₱1,277.4743=₱255,494.86
The current TEL capital block allocated total is: ₱330,000
This means the existing position has deployed approximately: 77% of its assigned capital.
The remaining theoretical capacity is approximately: ₱330,000−₱255,494.86=₱74,505.14
But this unused amount should not be mistaken for capital that must eventually be spent.
It represents optionality.
Before deploying any additional peso, TEL must still pass the relevant:
- fundamental gate;
- valuation gate;
- technical gate;
- risk gate;
- and total-portfolio allocation gate.
TEL sa Loob ng Emerging Two-Stock Portfolio
The TEL Stock Study is not being conducted in a vacuum.
We already have a larger core position: 500 ICT shares
ICT serves as the Core Anchor and Special Engine of the emerging portfolio.
TEL serves as the Low Volatility Dividend Harvester.
These two stocks are not expected to do the same job.
ICT’s portfolio role
ICT is expected to contribute mainly through:
- capital appreciation;
- stronger price-growth potential;
- active rotation;
- and selective Micro Harvesting opportunities.
TEL’s portfolio role
TEL is expected to contribute mainly through:
- regular cash dividends;
- income generation;
- lower-frequency rotation;
- and possible long-term price repair.
In simple terms:
ICT seeks to harvest through price movement. TEL seeks to harvest through continued ownership.
This creates the foundation of an emerging two-stock portfolio.
But the existence of two stocks does not automatically mean proper diversification.
Both remain large Philippine-listed equities. Both can decline during broader market stress. Both carry company-specific and execution risks.
The benefit comes from their different economic functions—not merely from having two ticker symbols.
Ang Anim na Bahagi ng TEL Stock Study
The series consists of six connected posts.
Each one answers a different question.
Post 1: TEL Series Introduction
The first post establishes:
- why TEL deserves a full study;
- the current position;
- the intended portfolio role;
- and the questions that must be answered before allocating more capital.
This is the roadmap.
Post 2: TEL Fundamental Analysis
The second post examines the operating business.
We look at:
- consolidated revenues;
- service revenues;
- EBITDA;
- net income;
- telco core income;
- operating cash flow;
- capital expenditures;
- debt;
- dividends;
- and emerging businesses such as data centers, cloud services, cybersecurity, and Maya.
The core question is:
Can PLDT’s business and cash flow continue supporting TEL’s role as a dividend harvester?
Our initial conclusion is balanced.
The business remains mature, durable, and cash-generative. Capex has declined from its peak, and regular dividends appear supportable.
However, leverage remains the main structural weakness.
TEL passes the fundamental gate—but with a debt warning.
Post 3: TEL Technical Analysis
The third post examines the daily chart using the MH 2.0 TMA Gate Score.
As of July 27, 2026 at 12:00 PM, the chart showed:
- price above a rising SMA-50;
- price testing the EMA-200 ribbon;
- MACD above signal and zero;
- RSI above neutral;
- and below-average volume.
The total TMA Gate Score was: 6
Mechanical decision: TECHNICAL TEST PROBE
The setup was constructive—but incomplete.
The chart permitted a small test. It did not require us to add.
Because we already hold 200 anchor shares, we already participate in any continued recovery.
Post 4: TEL Valuation
The fourth post asks:
Magkano ba talaga ang reasonable value ng TEL?
We did not rely on a single valuation formula.
We used three lenses:
- Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model;
- Dividend-Yield Valuation;
- and Normalized Cash FCFF.
We then performed sensitivity analysis before applying the Margin of Safety.
The sensitivity-tested base result produced: ₱1,240 estimated gross fair value
After estimated selling costs, the net realizable fair value was approximately: ₱1,235
The 5% Margin of Safety price was approximately: ₱1,178
The valuation conclusion was not that TEL was obviously cheap.
The conclusion was:
TEL was trading close to fair value, but had not yet reached the preferred Margin of Safety area.
Post 5: TEL Risk Management
The fifth post examines how much the stock can move against us.
Using 261 closing-price observations and 260 daily returns, we studied:
- one-day Historical Value-at-Risk;
- Expected Shortfall;
- observed one-day shocks;
- major drawdowns;
- recovery risk;
- and the price position of risk events within the SDA Refill Ladder.
At the ₱1,230 reference price:
- the 95% VaR price was approximately ₱1,205, inside Layer 4;
- the 95% Expected Shortfall price was approximately ₱1,188, inside Layer 5;
- the 99% VaR price was approximately ₱1,177, below the ladder and near the MOS area;
- and the observed worst-day stress price was approximately ₱1,167.
This produced one of the series’ most useful governance findings:
The SDA ladder tells us where the price has landed. VaR tells us how quickly it can get there.
One severe session can cross several refill zones.
Therefore, the ladder should not be treated as a chain of simultaneous automatic orders.
Post 6: TEL Capital Allocation
The final post brings everything together.
It asks:
How much capital should TEL receive when the portfolio already holds 500 ICT shares as the Core Anchor and Special Engine?
The answer is not based on TEL alone.
It considers:
- business quality;
- technical permission;
- fair value;
- Margin of Safety;
- VaR;
- drawdown capacity;
- dividend contribution;
- existing deployment;
- and the portfolio role of ICT.
The culminating conclusion is that the current 200-share TEL position already performs its assigned dividend function.
The ₱330,000 capital block total allocation should remain a ceiling—not a target that must be exhausted.
Unused TEL capacity remains portfolio optionality until the stock earns additional capital.
Ano ang Hindi Layunin ng Series?
This series is not intended to produce a permanent buy, sell, or hold instruction.
It is also not intended to prove that one valuation model is always correct.
The posts document a working process.
Every conclusion remains conditional on:
- future company disclosures;
- dividend announcements;
- changing capex requirements;
- debt and financing costs;
- technical structure;
- market conditions;
- and the wider portfolio situation.
The TEL Stock Study therefore produces governed reference points—not guaranteed outcomes.
The figures can change.
The process should remain.
Ang Governance Question
The most important question in this series is not:
Tataas ba ang TEL?
We do not know that with certainty.
The better question is:
If TEL rises, falls, or remains sideways, does our position still perform a useful portfolio function without creating unacceptable risk?
That is a governance question.
For the current 200-share position, TEL’s role is to:
- generate regular dividend cash;
- maintain exposure to a mature telecom business;
- provide a different harvest source from ICT;
- and preserve the option—but not the obligation—to add at better price and risk conditions.
This role does not require TEL to become the largest stock in the portfolio.
It does not require completion of every refill layer.
It does not require immediate price recovery.
It requires the stock to continue performing its assigned job within a controlled capital block.
Pangwakas na Kaisipan
The TEL Stock Study begins with a familiar company and a seemingly simple idea:
Hold a mature telecom stock and collect the dividend.
But the complete study reveals a more demanding reality.
The dividend must be supported by business cash flow.
The business must be evaluated against debt and capital expenditure.
The market price must be compared with fair value.
The chart must provide permission before execution.
VaR must show how quickly price can move through the refill architecture.
And the final capital decision must consider the larger ICT position.
TEL cannot be studied only as a stock.
It must be studied as a portfolio role.
That role is now clear:
TEL is the Low Volatility Dividend Harvester supporting a portfolio led by the 500-share ICT Core Anchor and Special Engine.
ICT provides the larger price-growth and rotation engine.
TEL provides the recurring dividend engine.
The two positions are not meant to be equal.
They are meant to be complementary.
And the remaining cash is not unfinished work.
It is optionality.
This six-post series documents how we moved from a simple dividend thesis toward a more disciplined portfolio conclusion.
The journey begins with TEL.
But the destination is broader:
Hindi lamang tayo pumipili ng stocks. Unti-unti nating binubuo ang isang portfolio kung saan bawat position ay may malinaw na trabaho, limitasyon, at governance.
The PSE has confirmed that its Shariah screening program is currently paused, with no new lists to be released until their internal review is completed. Although news outlets reported quarterly updates up to mid-2025, these later lists are no longer accessible on the PSE website.
For now, the PSE’s Shariah-Compliant Securities page and all past lists have been removed from the public website. The December 24, 2024 list is the last official version in Micro Stock Trader’s possession, downloaded before the page was taken down, although other investors may still hold later copies such as the reported July 4, 2025 release.
All halal-focused strategies under Micro Stock Trader will use a conservative, self-screened approach until official guidance resumes, in shā’ Allāh.
This post is for educational and documentation purposes only. It is not investment advice. Perform your own due diligence and consult qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions. All strategies, frameworks, and examples described here reflect the personal methodologies of Micro Stock Trader and are not guarantees of future performance.
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