Tuesday, January 28, 2025

Stock Price Review: Universal Robina Corporation (URC) Daily Chart as of January 28, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Stock Recommendation
  • Next Steps

Introduction

Universal Robina Corporation (URC) remains in a strong downtrend, struggling to reclaim key resistance levels. The updated chart includes the 20-day and 200-day moving averages, providing further insights into the stock's short-term and long-term trend dynamics. Our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy will determine whether a buy, sell, or hold stance is appropriate.

Trade Details

  • Stock: Universal Robina Corporation (URC)
  • Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
  • Timeframe: Daily Chart
  • Date: January 28, 2025 (Morning Session)
  • Closing Price: ₱64.95
  • High: ₱65.50
  • Low: ₱64.35
  • 20-MA (Short-Term Trend): ₱73.00
  • 200-MA (Long-Term Trend): ₱96.78
  • Key Pullback Levels:
    • 100% Pullback: ₱69.60
    • 50% Pullback: ₱67.43
    • 0% Pullback: ₱65.25

This review follows our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy for a structured assessment.

URC Daily Chart with technical indicators and retracement levels

URC Stock Price Review – Analyzing Buy or Sell Signals with the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy (Morning Session, January 27, 2025)


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

  • URC is in a confirmed downtrend, with price action below both the 20-day MA (₱73.00) and the 200-day MA (₱96.78).
  • The 20-MA is sloping downward, signaling continued weakness.
  • Recommendation: SELL / WAIT – A strong reversal signal is required before considering long positions.

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones

  • URC is trading below the 0% pullback level (₱65.25), indicating that support has failed.
  • The next resistance levels are ₱67.43 (50% pullback) and ₱69.60 (100% pullback).
  • Recommendation: SELL / WAIT – Price remains in bearish territory.

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation

  • No bullish power bars are visible on the chart.
  • Volume remains low, confirming a lack of strong buyer interest.
  • Recommendation: SELL / WAIT – There are no breakout signals.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals

  • No bullish technical signals are present to justify a long position.
  • The stock needs to reclaim at least ₱67.43 for a potential entry.
  • Recommendation: SELL / WAIT – Entry at this level is premature.

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management

  • If attempting a counter-trend buy, a stop-loss should be set below ₱63.50.
  • Given the ongoing downtrend, risk remains high for any new positions.
  • Recommendation: SELL / WAIT – Avoid unnecessary risk.

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation

  • No significant bullish color change signals have emerged.
  • Recommendation: SELL / WAIT – A shift in momentum is required.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits

  • Short traders should consider taking profits near ₱63.50 to ₱62.00.
  • Recommendation: SELL / WAIT – No clear bullish reversal yet.

Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones

  • The best re-entry zone for longs is near ₱60.00 if a strong bounce occurs.
  • Recommendation: WAIT FOR A BETTER ENTRY – Buying now is too risky.

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments (Position Sizing Strategy)

  • Aggressive traders may attempt a small speculative position, but caution is advised.
  • Recommendation: SELL / WAIT – Maintain a conservative approach.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations

  • Counter-trend trades should only be considered after two consecutive gap-downs or a 5% drop below the 200-day MA.
  • Recommendation: SELL / WAIT – No valid counter-trend setup.

Final Trade Recommendation

Final Trade Recommendation: SELL / WAIT

✅ Recommendation: Avoid buying as URC remains in a strong downtrend below the 20-MA and 200-MA.

✅ Risk Management: If considering a counter-trend buy, a stop-loss must be placed below ₱63.50.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Short sellers may target ₱63.50 to ₱62.00 for exits.

✅ Position Size Strategy: Avoid aggressive buying; a small position may be tested at ₱60.00, but only with a strong reversal.

Next Steps

🔹 Short-term traders → Avoid buying until price reclaims ₱67.43.

🔹 Long-term investors → May consider waiting for stabilization above ₱73.00.

🔹 Existing holders → Should consider reducing exposure or selling on relief rallies.

🚨 Final Thought: URC remains in a strong bearish phase. A proper bottoming requires accumulation and confirmation—wait for bullish confirmation before entering. 🚨


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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