Monday, January 27, 2025

Evaluation of Trade No. 9 – Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE)

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

Trade Details

  • Trade No.: 9/20
  • Date: January 27, 2025
  • Action: Buy
  • Entry Type: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks (Step 8)
  • Signal: Price testing key support at ₱6.95 near 50% pullback level
  • Stock: Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE)
  • Shares Bought: 500 out of 900 allocated
  • Entry Price: ₱6.95
  • Position Size: 56% Allocation

📌 Chart Overview:

  • Price is testing key support at ₱6.80-₱7.00 (retracement zone).
  • 50% pullback level at ₱7.04 was breached, bringing price close to the 0% pullback zone at ₱6.80.
  • Trend remains bearish, as price is below the 20-MA (₱7.68) and 200-MA (₱9.79).
  • Volume surged to 4.528M, indicating significant trading activity.
MONDE Closing Daily Chart with moving averages and retracement levels for trade evaluation on January 27, 2025.

MONDE Trade No. 9/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Chart


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

(Each step scored out of 10 based on trade alignment with strategy.)

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context - Score: 6/10

  • MONDE remains in a downtrend, with price below both moving averages.
  • Attempted stabilization near ₱7.00, but selling pressure remains strong.
  • Needs a strong bounce above ₱7.10 to confirm support.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels - Score: 7/10

  • Entry near ₱6.95 aligns with key support and pullback levels.
  • However, the stock is below both moving averages, meaning upside remains limited.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 6/10

  • Recent candles lack strong green power bars, indicating weak momentum.
  • Price struggling to hold support, raising the risk of further downside.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels - Score: 7/10

  • Entry aligns with retracement structure, but confirmation is needed above ₱7.00-₱7.10.
  • Break below ₱6.80 would invalidate the trade setup.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 9/10

  • Stop-loss set below ₱6.80 to control downside risk.
  • A break below this level would weaken the trade significantly.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation - Score: 5/10

  • No clear bullish reversal pattern yet.
  • A green candle above ₱7.10 would validate a potential recovery.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 8/10

  • First target: ₱7.28 (100% pullback zone).
  • Final target: ₱7.68 (20-MA resistance level).

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 7/10

  • Re-entry near support at ₱6.95 aligns with the strategy.
  • A bounce above ₱7.10 would confirm strength for scaling up.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management - Score: 7/10

  • 56% of the position has been deployed, leaving room for scaling up.
  • Further additions should be made only above ₱7.10-₱7.28.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 5/10

  • Not a counter-trend trade, but entry in a bearish trend requires caution.
  • Failure to hold ₱6.80 invalidates the setup and necessitates an exit.

📌 Overall Strategy Score: 67/100
📌 Summary: The entry aligns with support, but confirmation above ₱7.10-₱7.28 is needed to maintain bullish bias.

Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 6.7/10

✅ Trade Execution: Entry positioned near key support level, aligning with re-entry criteria.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss at ₱6.80 ensures controlled downside risk.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: First target at ₱7.28, scaling out at ₱7.68.

✅ Position Size Strategy: 56% Allocation, leaving room for re-entries or scaling up.

Next Steps

📌 Monitor price action near ₱7.10-₱7.28. If MONDE holds this level, consider scaling up.

📌 Watch for weakness below ₱6.80. If momentum weakens, reassess the trade and exit below ₱6.80.

📌 Look for re-entry opportunities. If MONDE retests ₱6.80 and holds, consider adding more shares.

🚨 Conclusion: Trade No. 9 remains valid with moderate conviction, but confirmation of strength above ₱7.10 is critical for a successful outcome. 🚨


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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