Monday, January 27, 2025

Evaluation of Trade No. 5 – MacroAsia Corporation (MAC)

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

Trade Details

  • Trade No.: 5/20
  • Date: January 27, 2025
  • Action: Buy
  • Entry Type: Pullback Entry
  • Signal: Price retracing to key support near the 200-MA and retracement zone
  • Stock: MacroAsia Corporation (MAC)
  • Shares Bought: 400 out of 800 allocated
  • Entry Price: ₱5.58
  • Position Size: 1/2 of target allocation

📌 Chart Overview:

  • MAC closed at ₱5.16 (-6.52%), dropping below key moving averages.
  • Price rejected near the 20-MA (₱5.44) and the 200-MA (₱5.31), showing weakness.
  • 50% pullback at ₱6.33 remains a major resistance area.
  • Support near the 0% pullback level at ₱4.96 is now in play.
MAC Closing Daily Chart with moving averages and retracement levels for trade evaluation on January 27, 2025.

MAC Trade No. 5/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Chart


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

(Each step scored out of 10 based on trade alignment with strategy.)

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context - Score: 6/10

  • MAC remains in a corrective phase after a prior uptrend.
  • Failure to hold above moving averages suggests continued selling pressure.
  • A reversal setup is not yet confirmed.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels - Score: 7/10

  • Entry at ₱5.58 was near the 200-MA (₱5.31) but failed to hold.
  • Price is now testing the lower range of the pullback zone, increasing downside risk.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 5/10

  • Bearish candle with increased volume confirms stronger selling pressure.
  • Price needs a strong green candle above ₱5.30-₱5.40 to validate a reversal.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels - Score: 7/10

  • Entry aligned with a logical support level, but price closed weak.
  • A retest of ₱4.96 is possible if no recovery occurs.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 9/10

  • Stop-loss placed below ₱5.00 ensures controlled downside risk.
  • Break below ₱4.96 invalidates the trade.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation - Score: 5/10

  • No clear bullish color change yet.
  • A green candle above ₱5.40 is needed for confirmation.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 8/10

  • First target: ₱5.80-₱6.00 (short-term resistance).
  • Final target: ₱6.33-₱6.50 (major resistance).

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 6/10

  • Re-entry near ₱5.16 may be possible, but a breakdown below ₱5.00 negates the setup.
  • Another opportunity exists above ₱5.40-₱5.50 if strength returns.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management - Score: 7/10

  • 1/2 position deployed, leaving room for scaling if price stabilizes.
  • Further exposure should only be added above ₱5.40-₱5.50.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 5/10

  • Not a counter-trend trade, but weakness below ₱5.00 signals the need for caution.
  • Price needs to reclaim ₱5.40 to justify holding the position.

📌 Overall Strategy Score: 65/100

📌 Summary: Trade entered at a reasonable support zone but failed to hold, requiring immediate risk management decisions.

Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 6.5/10

✅ Trade Execution: Entry positioned at a retracement level, but breakdown occurred.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss at ₱4.96 ensures controlled downside risk.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: First target at ₱5.80, scaling out at ₱6.33-₱6.50.

✅ Position Size Strategy: 1/2 Allocation, keeping flexibility for re-entries.

Next Steps

📌 Monitor price action near ₱5.16-₱5.30. If MAC holds this level, consider holding the position.

📌 Watch for weakness below ₱5.00. If momentum weakens, consider cutting losses.

📌 Look for re-entry opportunities. If MAC retests ₱5.40 and holds, consider adding more shares.

🚨 Conclusion: Trade No. 5 remains weak unless MAC reclaims ₱5.40-₱5.50. If price fails to hold above ₱5.00, an exit is necessary to minimize risk. 🚨


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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