Contents:
- Trade Details
- Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
- Final Trade Assessment
- Next Steps
Trade Details
- Trade No.: 8/20
- Date: January 27, 2025
- Action: Buy
- Entry Type: Tactical Pullback Entry
- Signal: Price near 50% retracement support (₱476.85)
- Stock: Manila Electric Company (MER)
- Shares Bought: 10 out of 20 allocated
- Entry Price: ₱475.00
- Position Size: 1/2 of target allocation
MER Trade No. 8/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Chart
Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
Each step is scored out of 10 based on trade alignment with the strategy.
Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context – Score: 6/10
- Market phase: MER is in a range-bound phase between ₱450.20 (support) and ₱503.50 (resistance).
- Trend: Short-term bearish after failing to hold above the 20-MA.
- Structure: A breakdown below the 50% retracement (₱476.85) suggests further downside risk.
✅ Verdict: Moderate risk – Needs recovery above ₱476.85 to confirm strength.
Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels – Score: 7/10
- Price is below the 20-MA (₱485.86), indicating short-term weakness.
- Price is near the 50% retracement level (₱476.85), a key support zone.
✅ Verdict: Good support test, but trend bias remains weak.
Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength – Score: 5/10
- Today’s red candle shows selling pressure.
- No strong green bar confirming support yet.
✅ Verdict: Weak confirmation – entry is speculative.
Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels – Score: 7/10
- Entry at ₱475.00 is slightly below the 50% retracement level (₱476.85).
- Price action stability is uncertain—failure to hold may lead to ₱450.20.
✅ Verdict: Decent entry point, but further weakness is possible.
Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments – Score: 9/10
- Stop-loss placed below ₱472.00 (previous low).
- Limits downside risk while allowing minor fluctuations.
✅ Verdict: Good risk management—tight stop placement.
Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation – Score: 5/10
- No bullish reversal candle yet.
- A green close above ₱476.85 is needed to confirm entry validity.
✅ Verdict: No confirmation—entry remains speculative.
Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets – Score: 8/10
- Target 1: ₱485.86 (20-MA).
- Target 2: ₱503.50 (previous resistance).
✅ Verdict: Profit-taking levels align with resistance zones.
Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks – Score: 7/10
- Possible re-entry at ₱450.20 if support fails.
- Adding exposure above ₱485.86 remains an option.
✅ Verdict: Opportunities exist but require confirmation.
Step 9: Tactical Position Management – Score: 6/10
- Half allocation used, keeping room for adjustments.
- Adding the remaining 10 shares only if ₱476.85 holds.
✅ Verdict: Position sizing is cautious but speculative.
Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails – Score: 8/10
- Not a counter-trend trade yet, but failure below ₱472.00 could lead to a deeper pullback.
✅ Verdict: Risk is manageable, but caution is needed.
Final Trade Assessment
Trade Rating: 6.8/10 (Moderate Risk)
✅ Trade Execution: The entry at ₱475.00 is aligned with key retracement levels but lacks strong bullish confirmation.
✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss at ₱472.00 ensures a controlled downside.
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Initial target at ₱485.86, scaling out at ₱503.50.
✅ Position Size Strategy: 1/2 allocation used, leaving flexibility for further adjustments.
Next Steps
📌 Monitor price action near ₱476.85. If price holds above this level, consider adding exposure.
📌 Watch for weakness below ₱472.00. If price fails to hold support, consider exiting earlier.
📌 Look for re-entry opportunities. If price retraces back to ₱450.20, a second tactical entry can be evaluated.
🚨 Final Thought: MER’s price action remains uncertain, with a need for a strong green candle above ₱476.85 to validate this entry. If support fails, expect a retest of ₱450.20. Trade cautiously. 🚨
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Related Readings
- Micro Stock Trader: Comparing the Modified 10-Step Trading Strategy vs. Retracement Trading Strategy
- Micro Stock Trader Portfolio Tracker Page
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