Thursday, January 30, 2025

Stock Price Review: Universal Robina Corporation (URC) Monthly Chart as of January 30, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Stock Recommendation
  • Next Steps

Introduction

Universal Robina Corporation (URC) has experienced significant downside pressure, closing at ₱64.35, a massive -18.54% decline in the latest monthly session. The stock has broken through major long-term support levels, trading well below both the 20-month and 200-month moving averages, indicating a deep bearish trend. This review evaluates whether URC presents a buy, sell, or hold opportunity based on our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy.

Trade Details

  • Stock: Universal Robina Corporation (URC)
  • Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
  • Timeframe: Monthly Chart
  • Date: January 30, 2025
  • Closing Price: ₱64.35
  • High: ₱83.95
  • Low: ₱64.15
  • 20-MA (Short-Term Trend): ₱106.00
  • 200-MA (Long-Term Trend): ₱113.69
  • Volume: 37.435M (elevated selling pressure)

This review follows our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy for a structured assessment.

URC Monthly Chart with technical indicators and retracement levels

URC Stock Price Review – Analyzing Buy or Sell Signals with the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Monthly Chart as of January 30, 2025


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

  • URC is in a long-term confirmed downtrend, with price action significantly below the 20-month and 200-month MAs.
  • The breakdown from ₱100 to ₱64 signals extreme weakness, suggesting that investors have lost confidence in the stock.
  • Volume is elevated, indicating panic selling rather than controlled distribution.
  • Recommendation: SELL / WAIT – The trend is strongly bearish, and caution is warranted.

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones

  • URC has broken below critical long-term support levels, showing no immediate signs of stabilization.
  • The next potential support is in the ₱50-₱55 range, aligning with previous consolidation zones from 2013-2014.
  • Recommendation: SELL / WAIT – The stock must establish a base before considering long positions.

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation

  • The large red monthly candle suggests strong selling pressure, with no bullish reversal signals present.
  • The increase in volume confirms a capitulation event, but without reversal patterns, buying remains high-risk.
  • Recommendation: SELL / WAIT – There are no breakout signals or momentum shifts.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals

  • There is no valid buy entry at current levels given the lack of a stabilization pattern.
  • Recommendation: WAIT – Confirmation of a bottoming structure is required before considering long entries.

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management

  • Stop-loss levels are difficult to define in free-fall conditions—traders should avoid attempting to catch the falling knife.
  • Recommendation: SELL / WAIT – Holding positions without a clear support level is highly risky.

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation

  • No green reversal candles or trend-shifting signals are present.
  • Recommendation: WAIT – Confirmation of buying interest is needed.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits

  • Traders still holding URC should consider reducing exposure while the trend remains bearish.
  • Recommendation: SELL / WAIT – Locking in losses before further downside is advisable.

Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones

  • A re-entry should only be considered if price stabilizes above ₱70 with increasing volume.
  • Recommendation: WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION – No immediate re-entry is advised.

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments (Position Sizing Strategy)

  • New buyers should avoid full-sized positions until a bottom is confirmed.
  • Recommendation: HOLD CASH / WAIT – No need to take unnecessary risks in a weak market.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations

  • A counter-trend trade can only be considered if a multi-month base forms with clear bullish reversals.
  • Recommendation: WAIT FOR A CONFIRMED TREND REVERSAL – The risk remains high for premature entries.

Final Trade Recommendation

Final Trade Recommendation: SELL / WAIT

✅ Recommendation: Sell on any relief rallies or wait for a confirmed bottom before considering new buys.

✅ Risk Management: Avoid speculative entries while the long-term trend remains bearish.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Short-term traders should reduce exposure on any bounce toward ₱75-₱80.

✅ Position Size Strategy: Avoid aggressive buying until a trend reversal is confirmed.

Next Steps

🔹 Short-term traders → Avoid buying until a strong bullish reversal pattern emerges.

🔹 Long-term investors → Consider waiting for stabilization before averaging down.

🔹 Existing holders → Should consider exiting positions or reducing exposure.

🚨 Final Thought: URC is in a deep bearish trend, and further downside is possible. Patience is key—wait for confirmation before entering new positions. 🚨


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


Related Readings

at
Labels: , , , ,

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)

Featured Post

Stock Price Review: Wilcon Depot Inc. (WLCON) Daily Chart as of June 27, 2025 (Mid-Day) – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

WLCON breaks above ₱9.00 in mid-day trade on June 27, 2025. Hybrid 10-Step Strategy confirms hold with trailing stop and partial exit . 📅 P...