TEL may serve as a Low Volatility Dividend Harvester, but its historical price record shows that one bad trading day can move the stock across several SDA refill zones.
Using 261 closing-price observations, we examine TEL’s Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, major drawdowns, and where each projected risk price lands within the SDA Refill Ladder.
Originally published: July 27, 2026 · Last updated: July 28, 2026
Links to related posts
- TEL Stock Study, Post 1: TEL Series Introduction
- TEL Stock Study, Post 2: TEL Fundamental Analysis
- TEL Stock Study, Post 3: TEL Technical Analysis
- TEL Stock Study, Post 4: TEL Valuation
- TEL Stock Study, Post 5: TEL Risk Management
- TEL Stock Study, Post 6: TEL Capital Allocation
Ang Punto ng Risk Management
Ang TEL ay kabilang sa Low Volatility Dividend Harvester group ng Micro Harvesting.
Pero ang “Low Volatility” ay portfolio classification lamang. Hindi ito pangakong hindi makakaranas ang stock ng malaking decline.
TEL may usually move more slowly than speculative stocks, but the historical data still show:
- sharp one-day losses;
- multiweek drawdowns;
- extended periods below acquisition cost;
- failed or incomplete recoveries;
- and substantial movements between market optimism and pessimism.
That is why TEL risk management cannot end with:
May dividend naman.
The dividend may compensate us for waiting. It does not stop the market price from falling.
For TEL, we must manage several forms of risk simultaneously:
- daily price risk;
- tail-event risk;
- drawdown risk;
- recovery risk;
- business and dividend risk;
- leverage risk;
- deployment risk;
- and operator-execution risk.
Ano ang Sinasabi ng Historical Price Data?
The supplied dataset contains 261 sequential daily closing prices, producing 260 daily returns.
The sample covers July 2, 2025 to July 24, 2026.
During that period, TEL recorded a low of approximately:
₱1,080
and a high of approximately:
₱1,425
The total price range was:
₱1,425 − ₱1,080 = ₱345
That is nearly 32% relative to the historical low.
For a mature dividend stock, this is not a trivial movement.
It shows that TEL’s market valuation can still change materially as investors reassess:
- earnings;
- dividends;
- capital expenditures;
- leverage;
- financing costs;
- competition;
- interest rates;
- and broader market conditions.
Ang Major Drawdowns
July to October 2025
TEL reached approximately ₱1,321 on July 8, 2025.
It later declined to approximately ₱1,080 by October 16, 2025.
The peak-to-trough decline was:
₱1,080 / ₱1,321 − 1 = −18.24%
The risk was not limited to the size of the decline.
TEL also remained near the lower price area for an extended period. That type of drawdown can create behavioral pressure to:
- keep averaging down;
- abandon the layer architecture;
- use dry powder too quickly;
- or assume that every lower price automatically represents better value.
A prolonged decline tests the operator differently from a sudden one-day shock.
December 2025 to February 2026
TEL later recovered and reached approximately ₱1,425 on February 26, 2026.
From there, it declined to approximately ₱1,083 by June 11, 2026.
The drawdown was:
₱1,083 / ₱1,083 − 1 = 24%
This was the largest major drawdown in the sample.
A 24% decline is not ordinary market noise.
It can materially affect:
- portfolio value;
- confidence in the investment thesis;
- available dry powder;
- and the operator’s willingness to follow the original plan.
It also occurred after a strong price recovery.
That gives us a useful lesson:
A recovery does not permanently remove downside risk.
Ang Observed One-Day Shock
The worst observed one-day decline in the sample occurred between August 28 and August 29, 2025.
TEL fell from:
to:
The one-day decline was:
For a 200-share position, a ₱63 price decline represents a gross mark-to-market loss of:
This is an observed historical stress event.
It is not the same as Value-at-Risk.
The proper interpretation is:
The historical sample already demonstrates that TEL can lose approximately 5% in one day.
A future tail event may be smaller—or more severe.
Ang TEL 1-Day Value-at-Risk
Using the 260 daily returns, we computed TEL’s one-day Historical Value-at-Risk.
For the risk-price mapping, we used the July 27, 2026 reference price of:
At 200 shares, the gross market value of the position was:
95% Historical VaR
The 95% one-day Historical VaR was approximately:
For the current position:
This means that, based on the historical sample, approximately 5% of daily outcomes may produce a loss greater than about ₱4,932.
The 95% VaR is not the expected daily loss.
It is the threshold marking the start of the worst 5% of historical outcomes.
99% Historical VaR
The 99% one-day Historical VaR was approximately:
For the current position:
This means that, based on the sample, approximately 1% of daily outcomes may produce losses greater than about ₱10,558.
Again, this is not the maximum possible loss.
VaR is a statistical threshold—not a price floor and not a loss ceiling.
Expected Shortfall
VaR tells us where an unusually bad day begins.
It does not tell us the average severity of losses after the threshold has been breached.
For that, we use Expected Shortfall.
95% Expected Shortfall
The 95% Expected Shortfall was approximately:
Applied to the current position:
This means that among the worst 5% of historical daily outcomes, the average loss was approximately ₱8,349.
99% Expected Shortfall
The 99% Expected Shortfall was approximately:
Applied to the position:
The main risk figures are therefore:
The 95% Historical VaR is approximately 2.00%, equivalent to around ₱4,932.
The 95% Expected Shortfall is approximately 3.39%, equivalent to around ₱8,349.
The 99% Historical VaR is approximately 4.29%, equivalent to around ₱10,558.
The 99% Expected Shortfall is approximately 4.75%, equivalent to around ₱11,685.
The observed worst one-day loss was approximately 5.16%, equivalent to roughly ₱12,600 to ₱12,700 at the July 27 reference value.
This is why VaR must not be treated as the worst possible loss.
VaR tells us where a bad day begins. Expected Shortfall and historical stress testing show how painful that bad day can become.
Nasaan ang VaR Price sa SDA Refill Ladder?
The TEL SDA Refill Ladder is:
- Layer 1: ₱1,259 and above
- Layer 2: ₱1,240–₱1,258
- Layer 3: ₱1,220–₱1,239
- Layer 4: ₱1,201–₱1,219
- Layer 5: ₱1,182–₱1,200
At the July 27 reference price of ₱1,230, TEL was inside:
The useful risk question is therefore not only:
How much can the position lose?
We must also ask:
At what price would TEL land after a VaR or Expected Shortfall event, and which SDA refill layer would that price activate?
95% VaR Price
Using the 95% Historical VaR of approximately 2.00%:
This projected price falls inside:
Therefore, an ordinary 95% VaR event can move TEL from Layer 3 to Layer 4 in a single trading day.
95% Expected Shortfall Price
Using the 95% Expected Shortfall of approximately 3.39%:
This falls inside:
Once TEL enters the worst 5% of historical outcomes, its average tail-loss price would land two refill zones below the July 27 reference price.
99% VaR Price
Using the 99% Historical VaR of approximately 4.29%:
This price falls:
- below the Layer 5 floor of ₱1,182;
- and almost exactly at the ₱1,178 Margin of Safety price derived in Post 4.
This is an important convergence.
A one-day 99% VaR event from ₱1,230 could move TEL from Layer 3, through Layers 4 and 5, directly to the valuation MOS area.
99% Expected Shortfall Price
Using the 99% Expected Shortfall of approximately 4.75%:
This projected price falls:
- below the entire SDA ladder;
- below the ₱1,178 MOS level;
- and near the rising SMA-50 area identified in the technical analysis.
Observed Worst-Day Price
Using the observed worst one-day decline of approximately 5.16%:
This also falls below the current ladder.
It is close to the July 27 SMA-50 reference of approximately ₱1,168.
Ano ang Ibig Sabihin ng VaR-Ladder Mapping?
The SDA ladder and VaR answer different questions.
The SDA Refill Ladder tells us:
Where has the market price landed?
Value-at-Risk tells us:
How quickly can the price get there?
At ₱1,230, TEL was already in Layer 3.
From that starting point:
- a 95% VaR day could move TEL into Layer 4;
- a 95% Expected Shortfall event could move it into Layer 5;
- a 99% VaR day could move it below Layer 5 and near the MOS price;
- and a 99% Expected Shortfall or observed worst-day event could place it below the whole ladder.
This means the TEL layers are narrow relative to the stock’s demonstrated one-day tail risk.
One severe session can cross several refill zones before the operator has time to reassess:
- news;
- volume;
- technical damage;
- fair value;
- dividend implications;
- or whether the decline is company-specific.
This has a direct governance implication:
The TEL SDA ladder should not be managed through multiple simultaneous automatic refill orders.
If orders are already placed across Layers 4 and 5, a single tail event could execute both before we determine whether the original investment thesis remains intact.
The safer operating rule is:
One refill decision at a time, followed by a fresh reassessment.
The ladder is a map—not a cascade of automatic orders.
The TEL VaR analysis measures how quickly the stock may move through its refill zones. Whether the portfolio can act at those zones is a separate capital-allocation question, because TEL shares the same ₱150,000 dry-powder constraint with ICT.
Recovery Risk
Drawdown magnitude is only one part of risk.
The other question is:
How quickly can the stock recover?
After reaching approximately ₱1,080 in October 2025, TEL eventually recovered above ₱1,400.
However, after the February 2026 high of ₱1,425, the stock fell to ₱1,083 and remained well below its former peak by June 11, 2026.
At the last observation of ₱1,235, TEL remained:
below the February 2026 peak.
From the ₱1,083 trough to ₱1,235, the stock recovered ₱152 of the ₱342 decline.
That represents only around 44% of the lost price distance.
The stock had stopped falling—but had not yet completed the recovery.
This is the nature of recovery risk.
A dividend stock can remain below the operator’s cost for months while continuing to distribute cash.
The waiting period itself is part of the risk.
Risk sa Ating 200-Share Position
Our TEL position consists of:
- 200 anchor shares
- Average net cost: ₱1,277.4743
- Total net acquisition cost:
If the position were marked at the historical low of ₱1,080, the unrealized price difference would be:
For 200 shares:
That represents approximately:
of the net acquisition cost.
This shows that a mature dividend company can still generate a substantial unrealized loss without experiencing financial distress.
Deployment Risk
The current TEL capital allocation is:
The 200-share position has deployed approximately:
TEL has approximately ₱74,505 of unused capacity within its ₱330,000 stock-level ceiling. However, this is not a separately funded TEL cash reserve. Any actual refill must draw from the portfolio’s shared ₱150,000 dry powder, which also governs ICT additions and any other fresh deployment.
But this should not be interpreted as capital that must eventually be spent.
The remaining amount represents risk capacity.
It must preserve room for:
- volatility;
- deeper price locations;
- transaction costs;
- valuation revisions;
- unexpected company developments;
- and broader portfolio needs.
The VaR-ladder mapping reinforces this point.
Because one severe session can move TEL through several refill zones, committing most of the remaining allocation through standing orders could eliminate optionality at exactly the wrong moment.
Valuation Risk
Our sensitivity-tested valuation produced:
- Gross base fair value: approximately ₱1,240
- 5% Margin of Safety price: approximately ₱1,178
The wider valuation scenarios ranged from approximately:
- ₱873 under the conservative case;
- ₱1,241 under the base case;
- and ₱1,771 under the optimistic case.
This range shows that valuation is assumption-dependent.
Fair value changes with:
- cost of equity;
- WACC;
- terminal growth;
- required dividend yield;
- normalized capex;
- and sustainable cash flow.
The near-alignment between the 99% VaR price of ₱1,177 and the MOS price of ₱1,178 is useful—but it must not be misunderstood.
It does not mean that a 99% VaR day automatically creates a buy.
A deep one-day decline may create a valuation opportunity.
It may also reflect new information that makes the old fair value obsolete.
Therefore:
When price reaches the MOS zone through a tail event, the correct response is reassessment—not automatic execution.
Dividend at Leverage Risk
Our normalized sustainable dividend estimate is approximately:
For 200 shares:
This is a meaningful annual cash contribution.
But the dividend depends on:
- telco core earnings;
- operating cash flow;
- capital expenditures;
- gearing;
- debt servicing;
- liquidity;
- and board approval.
The fundamental analysis also identified leverage as TEL’s principal structural weakness.
High debt exposes shareholders to:
- rising financing costs;
- refinancing risk;
- reduced capital-allocation flexibility;
- and greater sensitivity of equity value to operating disappointments.
The dividend can compensate us for time.
It cannot eliminate the possibility of:
- payout reduction;
- lower dividend growth;
- or sustained capital loss.
Technical Risk
As of July 27, 2026 at 12:00 PM, TEL had a
TMA Gate Score of: 6
Mechanical decision:
The technical structure showed:
- price above a rising SMA-50;
- bullish MACD;
- RSI above 50;
- price testing the EMA-200 ribbon;
- and volume below its 50-day average.
The principal technical risk was rejection from long-term resistance.
The VaR mapping demonstrates how quickly such a rejection can move through the ladder.
A 95% VaR move could bring TEL into Layer 4.
A severe tail event could move it directly to Layer 5 or below.
Therefore, every material price movement requires a new TMA Gate Score.
The July 27 score does not remain valid after a VaR-level decline.
Operational at Execution Risk
Even when the analytical framework is correct, the operator can still make an execution mistake.
Examples include:
- entering the wrong quantity;
- pressing buy instead of sell;
- duplicating an order;
- using an outdated reference price;
- placing orders in several adjacent layers simultaneously;
- buying outside the approved layer;
- or failing to account for transaction fees.
Our transaction-cost rules are:
- add 0.2950% to gross purchase value to estimate net acquisition cost;
- deduct 0.3950% from gross sale value to estimate net proceeds.
Because the average cost of ₱1,277.4743 is already net, the approximate gross break-even selling price is:
The execution process should therefore confirm:
- order side;
- quantity;
- price;
- SDA layer;
- updated TMA score;
- and estimated net cost or proceeds
before submission.
Ang TEL Risk-Control Framework
The historical data and VaR-ladder mapping suggest the following practical controls.
Ordinary movement
A daily move of around 1%–2% may occur without changing the thesis.
The default response is observation.
95% VaR event
A decline of approximately 2% from ₱1,230 could bring TEL to around ₱1,205, inside Layer 4.
The operator should review:
- volume;
- news;
- technical structure;
- and whether the decline remains consistent with an ordinary pullback.
The fact that the price has entered Layer 4 is not enough to authorize a refill.
95% Expected Shortfall event
A decline of approximately 3.39% could bring TEL to around ₱1,188, inside Layer 5.
This is already a tail event.
The stock would have crossed several price zones in one day.
No standing sequence of automatic refill orders should be allowed to execute without reassessment.
99% VaR event
A decline of approximately 4.29% could bring TEL to around ₱1,177—below the ladder and at the MOS area.
At this point, the operator should reassess:
- whether the fundamental thesis has changed;
- whether fair value remains ₱1,240;
- whether the TMA score still allows action;
- and whether the remaining TEL allocation should be preserved.
99% Expected Shortfall or worst-day event
A decline toward ₱1,172 or ₱1,167 should be treated as a stress event.
The first priority is not buying.
The first priority is determining what caused the move.
Material drawdown
A decline of around 10% from a recent high should trigger a formal review of:
- position size;
- fair value;
- investment thesis;
- and remaining dry powder.
Severe drawdown
A decline of 15%–20% is no longer ordinary low-volatility behavior.
The sample already contains an 18.24% drawdown.
Crisis drawdown
The historical data also contain a 24% peak-to-trough decline.
At that stage, capital preservation and thesis validation take priority over completing the refill ladder.
Ang MH Risk Verdict
TEL is not a low-risk stock simply because it pays regular dividends.
The historical data show:
- 95% one-day Historical VaR of approximately 2.00%
- 95% Expected Shortfall of approximately 3.39%
- 99% Historical VaR of approximately 4.29%
- 99% Expected Shortfall of approximately 4.75%
- observed worst-day decline of approximately 5.16%
- major drawdowns of approximately 18.24% and 24.00%
At the ₱1,230 reference price, these translate into:
- ₱1,205 after a 95% VaR event, inside Layer 4;
- ₱1,188 after a 95% Expected Shortfall event, inside Layer 5;
- ₱1,177 after a 99% VaR event, below Layer 5 and near the MOS price;
- ₱1,172 after a 99% Expected Shortfall event;
- and around ₱1,167 after a repeat of the observed worst day.
The current position remains manageable because:
- it is 77% deployed rather than fully deployed;
- the business continues to generate dividends;
- and the remaining allocation preserves some optionality.
But that optionality can disappear quickly if multiple refill orders are activated during one tail event.
The proper TEL risk classification is:
A cash-generative dividend anchor with moderate ordinary volatility, but meaningful tail risk, drawdown risk, leverage risk, and the capacity to cross several refill layers in one severe trading day.
Pangwakas na Kaisipan
TEL can look calm for long periods.
Then one VaR-level decline can move it from Layer 3 to Layer 4.
One Expected Shortfall event can bring it to Layer 5.
One 99% VaR day can push it through the entire refill ladder and directly toward the Margin of Safety area.
That is the key relationship between VaR and the SDA architecture:
The SDA ladder tells us where the price has landed. VaR tells us how quickly it can get there.
This means the ladder cannot be managed as a row of automatic orders waiting to be filled.
Each layer requires:
- a fresh TMA Gate Score;
- a review of company developments;
- confirmation that fair value remains valid;
- and a check of remaining risk capacity.
For our 200-share anchor, the objective is not to prevent every unrealized loss.
It is to ensure that:
- the position remains inside its capital block;
- the portfolio can survive a VaR or tail-loss event;
- the dividend thesis remains supportable;
- lower prices do not trigger emotional averaging;
- and dry powder remains available after the first refill.
The governing rule remains:
A lower price creates an option to reassess—not an obligation to buy.
The dividend is the harvest.
The SDA ladder provides the map.
VaR shows the speed of the possible descent.
Governance determines whether we act when the price arrives.
The PSE has confirmed that its Shariah screening program is currently paused, with no new lists to be released until their internal review is completed. Although news outlets reported quarterly updates up to mid-2025, these later lists are no longer accessible on the PSE website.
For now, the PSE’s Shariah-Compliant Securities page and all past lists have been removed from the public website. The December 24, 2024 list is the last official version in Micro Stock Trader’s possession, downloaded before the page was taken down, although other investors may still hold later copies such as the reported July 4, 2025 release.
All halal-focused strategies under Micro Stock Trader will use a conservative, self-screened approach until official guidance resumes, in shā’ Allāh.
This post is for educational and documentation purposes only. It is not investment advice. Perform your own due diligence and consult qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions. All strategies, frameworks, and examples described here reflect the personal methodologies of Micro Stock Trader and are not guarantees of future performance.
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