Contents:
- Introduction
- Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
- Final Trade Recommendation
- Next Steps
Introduction
RL Commercial REIT (RCR) remains a key player in the Philippine real estate investment trust (REIT) sector, offering investors both dividend income and capital appreciation potential. As of January 31, 2025, the stock price has continued its gradual uptrend, closing at 5.94 after a brief test of 6.03, with strong support from its 20-MA at 5.36.
Trade Details:
- Stock: RL Commercial REIT (RCR)
- Exchange: PSE
- Timeframe: Monthly
- Date: January 31, 2025
- Closing Price: 5.94
- High: 6.03
- Low: 5.84
- 20-MA (Short-Term Trend): 5.36
- 200-MA (Long-Term Trend): Not yet available
Key Pullback Levels:
- 100% Pullback: 6.50 (Major resistance zone)
- 75% Pullback: 6.20 (Key short-term resistance)
- 50% Pullback: 5.90 (Current support level)
- 0% Pullback: 5.36 (Long-term support near 20-MA)
This stock price review follows our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy to ensure a structured and comprehensive assessment.
RL Commercial REIT (RCR) Monthly Chart as of January 31, 2025
Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context
- The long-term trend is transitioning from bearish to neutral, with price stabilizing above the 20-MA (5.36).
- Price remains in an uptrend, consolidating near the 6.00 resistance zone.
- January’s candle indicates mild bullish continuation, but momentum is slowing.
✅ Market State: Uptrend with consolidation near resistance.
🛑 Decision: HOLD – Monitor for a breakout above 6.00.
Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones
- Positive Position: Price is above the 20-MA, confirming trend stability.
- Retracement Zone: 5.90 - 6.00 acts as immediate resistance, while 5.36 remains strong support.
✅ Favorable for long-term holding, but a breakout is needed.
🛑 Decision: HOLD – Avoid new buys until confirmation above 6.00.
Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation
- January closed with a small-bodied green candle, indicating consolidation.
- Volume remains stable, but no breakout confirmation yet.
✅ Buyers are maintaining control, but momentum needs a push.
🛑 Decision: WAIT – Need strong volume for a move above 6.00.
Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals
- BUY trades executed at 5.93 (1,000 shares on January 17) and 6.00 (200 shares on January 23) were placed near resistance.
- Further upside potential remains limited unless 6.20 is cleared.
🛑 Decision: WAIT – No additional entries until confirmation.
Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management
- Stop-loss should be set below 5.75 to minimize downside risk.
- Risk is moderate since price remains above 5.90 support.
✅ Controlled risk as long as price holds above 5.75.
🛑 Decision: HOLD – Stop-loss placement remains unchanged.
Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation
- January’s candle suggests indecision, requiring confirmation in February.
🛑 Decision: WAIT – Observe price action in early February.
Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits
- If price moves above 6.20 - 6.50, consider partial exits.
- Dividends remain a key incentive for holding REIT positions.
✅ Profits should be locked in at key resistance levels.
🛑 Decision: HOLD – No immediate exits required.
Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones
- Best re-entry zone is near 5.75 if price pulls back.
✅ Consider adding on dips above 5.75.
🛑 Decision: WAIT – No new entries unless price stabilizes.
Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments
- BUY trades at 5.93 and 6.00 were well-timed, but a breakout is still needed.
- Adding to positions should be considered only if momentum continues above 6.20.
🛑 Decision: HOLD – Monitor trend before adding.
Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations
- No counter-trend trade needed as the stock remains in an uptrend.
🛑 Decision: HOLD – No counter-trend action required.
Final Trade Recommendation
✅ Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD
✅ Recommendation: Maintain the position at 5.93 - 6.00, but avoid aggressive buying until a confirmed breakout above 6.20.
✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss below 5.75 to protect against downside risk.
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Target 6.20 - 6.50 for gradual exits upon breakout.
✅ Position Size Strategy: Hold the current position and consider adding if price stabilizes above 5.75 with volume confirmation.
Next Steps
🔹 Short-term traders → Wait for a breakout above 6.20 before adding positions.
🔹 Long-term investors → Hold positions for dividends and trend continuation.
🔹 Existing holders → Watch the 5.75 level for support confirmation.
🚨 Final Thought: RCR is consolidating after a steady uptrend. A breakout above 6.20 is needed for continued upside. 🚨
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Related Readings
- Micro Stock Trader: Comparing the Modified 10-Step Trading Strategy vs. Retracement Trading Strategy
- Micro Stock Trader Portfolio Tracker Page
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