Contents:
- Introduction
- URC Trade Summary (Live Testing Phase 2)
- Step-by-Step Performance Evaluation (10-Point Rating System)
- Final Trade Performance Score & Insights
- Next Steps & Adjustments
Introduction
Universal Robina Corporation (URC) has been part of our 20-Trades Phase 2 Live Testing to assess the effectiveness of our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy. This review covers 4 trades executed between January 21, 2025, and February 4, 2025, focusing on trade execution, decision-making, and risk management.
Key Objectives:
✅ Evaluate trade performance based on technical execution.
✅ Assign ratings using a 10-point scoring system for each step.
✅ Provide insights and necessary adjustments to refine our strategy.
URC Price Daily Chart Evaluation – 20-Trade Phase 2 Live Testing as of February 4, 2025.
URC Trade Summary (Live Testing Phase 2)Trade History:
Trade 1/20: January 21, 2025 – BUY 50 shares at Php 65.95
Trade 2/20: January 23, 2025 – BUY 50 shares at Php 66.85
Trade 3/20: January 31, 2025 – SELL 100 shares at Php 64.10
Trade 4/20: February 4, 2025 – BUY 50 shares at Php 58.00
Financial Performance Summary:
✅ Total Gain/Loss as of February 4, 2025: Net loss of Php 1,823.04
✅ URC Current Price: Php 57.95 (February 4, 2025)
✅ Technical Review:
- Monthly Chart: Price is well below the 200-MA (Php 113.91) and 20-MA (Php 101.85), confirming a long-term downtrend.
- Daily Chart: Price is trading below the 200-MA (Php 95.93) and 20-MA (Php 69.19), signaling short-term bearish pressure.
Step-by-Step Performance Evaluation (10-Point Rating System)
Step 1: Market State & Trend Context
✅ Evaluation: URC is in a confirmed downtrend, trading significantly below the 20-MA and 200-MA. Despite this, re-entry at Php 58 was based on increased volume.
🔹 Score: 7/10 (Good awareness of the trend, but early re-entry in a weak market.)
Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones
✅ Evaluation: Price was far below key moving averages, increasing downside risk. Entry was made where consolidation was expected but lacked strong confirmation.
🔹 Score: 6/10 (Good setup, but better entry confirmation needed.)
Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation
✅ Evaluation: Entry at Php 58 saw volume rise to 3.782M, but power bars were absent, suggesting weak conviction.
🔹 Score: 5/10 (Entry volume was good, but price action was weak.)
Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals
✅ Evaluation: No significant bullish reversal signals were present at the time of entry, increasing the risk of a continuation of the downtrend.
🔹 Score: 4/10 (Weak technical confirmation.)
Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management
✅ Evaluation: A tight stop-loss strategy was implemented, but entering a downtrend still posed high risk.
🔹 Score: 6/10 (Managed risk effectively but better entry was needed.)
Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation
✅ Evaluation: Candlestick patterns did not strongly indicate a trend reversal, and a potential dead-cat bounce was a concern.
🔹 Score: 5/10 (No strong reversal signals confirmed.)
Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits
✅ Evaluation: Partial exits were considered but not effectively executed as price continued downward.
🔹 Score: 5/10 (Needed better execution of profit-taking.)
Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones
✅ Evaluation: Re-entry at Php 58 seemed reasonable but lacked strong technical backing.
🔹 Score: 6/10 (Better confirmation needed before re-entering.)
Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments
✅ Evaluation: Position sizing was moderate but could have been adjusted based on bearish continuation.
🔹 Score: 6/10 (More flexible adjustments required.)
Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations
✅ Evaluation: Entering against a strong downtrend was risky without two consecutive gap-downs.
🔹 Score: 4/10 (More conservative approach needed.)
Final Performance Score: 57/100 (Needs Improvement)
Final Trade Performance Score & Insights
✅ Key Takeaways:
- Good volume analysis, but weak price action confirmation.
- Entering below moving averages increased downside risk.
- Improvements needed in patience for trend confirmation and more tactical position sizing.
Justification of URC Trade 4/20
Key Observations:
- URC remains far below both moving averages, reinforcing strong bearish momentum.
- The recent re-entry at ₱58.00 was based on:
- Significant volume (3.782M), indicating potential institutional activity.
- Price stabilizing between ₱57.80 – ₱61.25, suggesting early bottoming signals.
Justification for Re-Entry at ₱58.00:
Despite the overall downtrend, our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy allowed a re-entry based on:
✅ Significant Trading Volume: At 3.782M, volume was high, implying potential accumulation.
✅ Oversold Condition: Price is significantly below the 20-MA and 200-MA, indicating a possible rebound.
✅ Stable Range Formation: ₱57.80 – ₱61.25 held firm, reducing immediate downside risk.
Next Steps & Adjustments
Tactical Adjustments:
- Monitor price action near Php 57.80 – Php 61.25.
- Avoid premature re-entry unless bullish confirmation emerges.
- Use a tight stop-loss strategy to prevent further downside risk.
Future Trading Considerations:
🔹 Short-term traders: Wait for a breakout above the 20-MA before entering.
🔹 Long-term investors: Accumulate cautiously near strong support levels.
🔹 Existing holders: Reassess stop-loss and take-profit zones based on new trends.
🚨 Final Thought: Trend confirmation is key. Avoid catching a falling knife without clear signals. 🚨
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Related Readings
- Micro Stock Trader: Comparing the Modified 10-Step Trading Strategy vs. Retracement Trading Strategy
- Micro Stock Trader Portfolio Tracker Page
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