Contents:
- Trade Details
- Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
- Final Trade Assessment
- Next Steps
Trade Details
- Trade No.: 5/20
- Date: February 5, 2025
- Action: Buy
- Entry Type: Short-Term Reversal Attempt at Multi-Year Lows (Monthly Chart)
- Signal: Strong bullish momentum with increasing volume
- Stock: Universal Robina Corporation (URC)
- Shares Bought: Last 20 out of 70 shares allocated (completing full position)
- Entry Price: ₱61.65
- Position Size: Full allocation completed
📌 Chart Overview:
- Daily Chart: URC posted a strong green candle, closing at ₱61.65 (+6.38%), showing initial recovery from oversold conditions.
- Volume surged to 3.506M, confirming renewed interest in the stock.
- The 20-MA (₱68.15) remains above, serving as the first resistance level.
- The 200-MA (₱95.74) remains significantly above, indicating the long-term trend is still bearish.
- Monthly Chart: URC is at a multi-year low, indicating potential mean reversion if a sustained rally occurs.
URC Trade No. 5/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Monthly Chart
URC Trade No. 5/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Daily Chart
Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
(Each step scored out of 10 based on trade alignment with strategy.)
Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context - Score: 7/10
- URC is in a long-term downtrend but has shown a strong daily recovery.
- First signs of reversal appear, but confirmation is needed above ₱65.00-₱68.00.
Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels - Score: 7/10
- Price is still below both the 20-MA (₱68.15) and 200-MA (₱95.74), meaning bearish pressure persists.
- Entry near ₱61.65 aligns with short-term retracement potential, but resistance remains overhead.
Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 9/10
- Strong green candle on high volume suggests a potential shift in momentum.
- If price can hold above ₱60.00, a higher low structure may form.
Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels - Score: 8/10
- Entry at ₱61.65 aligns with the daily green candle confirmation.
- A break above ₱65.00-₱68.00 would confirm a bullish continuation.
Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 9/10
- Stop-loss set below ₱58.50 ensures controlled downside risk.
- A breakdown below ₱57.50 would invalidate the trade setup.
Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation - Score: 8/10
- Bullish price action with strong volume confirms upward momentum.
- Needs continuation above ₱63.00-₱65.00 to further confirm.
Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 9/10
- First target: ₱68.00 (20-MA resistance).
- Final target: ₱75.00-₱80.00 (next major resistance zone).
Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 7/10
- A pullback to ₱60.50-₱61.00 could offer another entry.
- Breakout above ₱65.00 justifies scaling further into the position.
Step 9: Tactical Position Management - Score: 8/10
- Full allocation deployed, limiting further scaling.
- Risk management is crucial near resistance levels.
Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 7/10
- Not a counter-trend trade, but caution is needed near ₱68.00 resistance.
- Failure to hold ₱60.00 could lead to further downside.
📌 Overall Strategy Score: 79/100
📌 Summary: Trade was well-executed based on momentum confirmation, but resistance near ₱68.00 must be monitored.
Final Trade Assessment
Trade Rating: 7.9/10
✅ Trade Execution: Entry positioned at a breakout level, aligning with short-term trend reversal.
✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss at ₱58.50 ensures controlled downside risk.
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: First target at ₱68.00, scaling out at ₱75.00-₱80.00.
✅ Position Size Strategy: Full allocation, requiring strict risk management.
Next Steps
📌 Monitor price action near ₱65.00-₱68.00. If URC holds this level, consider holding the position for further gains.
📌 Watch for weakness below ₱60.00. If momentum weakens, reassess the trade and adjust stop-loss accordingly.
📌 Look for re-entry opportunities. If URC retests ₱60.50 and holds, consider adding more exposure in future setups.
🚨 Conclusion: Trade No. 5 remains strong, with a bullish outlook. A move above ₱68.00 would confirm further upside, while a break below ₱60.00 would require caution. 🚨
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Related Readings
- Micro Stock Trader: Comparing the Modified 10-Step Trading Strategy vs. Retracement Trading Strategy
- Micro Stock Trader Portfolio Tracker Page
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