Monday, January 27, 2025

Evaluation of Trade No. 7 – Tactical Entry for MREIT Inc. (MREIT)

Trade Details

Trade No.: 7/20
Date: January 27, 2025
Action: Buy
Entry Type: Tactical Entry
Signal: Price testing 50% retracement level resistance
Stock: MREIT Inc. (MREIT)
Shares Bought: 200 out of 400 allocated
Entry Price: ₱13.50
Position Size: 1/2 of target allocation

MREIT Closing Daily Chart with moving averages and retracement levels for trade evaluation on January 27, 2025.

MREIT Trade No. 7/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Chart

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Each step is scored out of 10 based on trade alignment with the strategy.

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context – Score: 7/10

Market phase: MREIT is range-bound between ₱13.18 (support) and ₱13.61 (50% retracement resistance).
Trend: Sideways with slight bullish bias after holding above ₱13.18.
Structure: Higher lows forming, but resistance remains strong at ₱13.61.
✅ Verdict: Moderate strength – A confirmed breakout is still needed.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels – Score: 8/10

Price is above the 200-MA (₱13.21), indicating long-term bullish stability.
Price is testing the 50% retracement at ₱13.61, which is a major decision point for continuation or rejection.
✅ Verdict: Good setup, but needs breakout confirmation above ₱13.61.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength – Score: 6/10

No strong green power bar today. Volume increased, but price remains stuck below ₱13.61.
Buyers are defending the range but haven’t broken resistance.
✅ Verdict: Weak confirmation – momentum needs to improve.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels – Score: 7/10

Entry at ₱13.50 is slightly below the 50% retracement level (₱13.61), which is a tactical but unconfirmed level.
A breakout above ₱13.61 is needed to validate the entry.
✅ Verdict: Decent risk-reward, but requires confirmation.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments – Score: 9/10

Stop-loss set below ₱13.30 (previous support level).
Ensures controlled risk while allowing price fluctuation within the range.
✅ Verdict: Good risk management – effective stop placement.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation – Score: 6/10

Today’s candle is neutral with no decisive movement.
A strong green bar tomorrow would confirm the bullish case.
✅ Verdict: Lack of a clear confirmation bar is a concern.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets – Score: 8/10

Target 1: ₱13.83 (75% retracement level).
Target 2: ₱14.04 (100% pullback level).
Exit plan is aligned with major resistance zones.
✅ Verdict: Profit-taking plan is well-structured.

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks – Score: 7/10

Possible re-entry zone at ₱13.18 (0% retracement) if price dips.
Adding on strength if ₱13.61 breaks is also an option.
✅ Verdict: Opportunities exist but require more patience.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management – Score: 7/10

Half of the allocation was bought at ₱13.50, allowing flexibility.
**Adding the remaining 200 shares only if price confirms above ₱13.61.
✅ Verdict: Well-managed entry sizing strategy.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails – Score: 9/10

No counter-trend trade needed since MREIT is range-bound.
The stop-loss below ₱13.30 limits downside exposure.
✅ Verdict: Strong adherence to trend-following principles.

Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 7.4/10 (Moderate Setup)

✅ Trade Execution: The entry at ₱13.50 is within the retracement range but lacks a confirmed breakout.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss at ₱13.30 ensures a controlled downside.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Initial target at ₱13.83, scaling out at ₱14.04.

✅ Position Size Strategy: 1/2 allocation used, keeping room for further adjustments.

Next Steps

📌 Monitor price action near ₱13.61. If price holds above this level, consider adding exposure.

📌 Watch for weakness below ₱13.30. If price fails to break out and momentum weakens, consider exiting earlier.

📌 Look for re-entry opportunities. If price retraces back to ₱13.18, a second tactical entry can be evaluated.

🚨 Final Thought: MREIT’s price action remains neutral-to-bullish, but a decisive move above ₱13.61 is required to justify further buying. If resistance holds, expect sideways consolidation. 🚨

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Trade Details

Trade No.: 6/20
Date: January 27, 2025
Action: Buy
Entry Type: Momentum Entry
Signal: Break above the 20-MA with strong bullish momentum
Stock: Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI)
Shares Bought: 400 out of 800 allocated
Entry Price: ₱17.04
Position Size: 1/2 of target allocation

📌 Chart Overview:

ATI closed at ₱17.50 (+0.69%), maintaining its breakout structure.
The stock surged above the 20-MA (₱16.82), confirming short-term trend reversal.
200-MA (₱18.61) serves as the next major resistance level.
Volume at 77.9K suggests steady accumulation.

ATI Closing Daily Chart with moving averages and retracement levels for trade evaluation on January 27, 2025.

ATI Trade No. 6/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Chart

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

(Each step scored out of 10 based on trade alignment with strategy.)

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context - Score: 8/10

ATI is transitioning from a downtrend into a potential uptrend.
Break above the 20-MA signals trend reversal, but confirmation above ₱18.00 is needed.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels - Score: 8/10

Price reclaimed the 20-MA (₱16.82), signaling short-term strength.
The next resistance is at the 200-MA (₱18.61), which must be cleared for further upside.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 9/10

Strong bullish price action with a breakout candlestick.
Momentum suggests continuation, provided volume remains steady.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels - Score: 8/10

Entry was well-timed as the price confirmed strength above ₱17.00.
A retracement to ₱16.50 would offer another entry opportunity.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 9/10

Stop-loss set below ₱16.40 to minimize risk.
A breakdown below this level invalidates the trade setup.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation - Score: 8/10

Green candlestick formation confirms buying pressure.
Needs follow-through above ₱17.50 to confirm continuation.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 9/10

First target: ₱18.50 (near the 200-MA).
Final target: ₱19.50-₱20.00 (key resistance zone).

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 7/10

A retest of ₱16.80-₱17.00 would offer another entry.
Breakout above ₱18.00 justifies scaling into the position.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management - Score: 8/10

1/2 position deployed, leaving room for scaling if price stabilizes above ₱18.00.
Further exposure should only be added above ₱18.50.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 6/10

Not a counter-trend trade, but caution is needed near ₱18.50 resistance.
Failure to hold above ₱16.50 would weaken the bullish setup.

📌 Overall Strategy Score: 80/100
📌 Summary: Trade was well-positioned on a momentum breakout, with further upside potential if price clears ₱18.50.

Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 8.0/10

✅ Trade Execution: Entry positioned at a breakout level, aligning with trend reversal.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss at ₱16.40 ensures controlled downside risk.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: First target at ₱18.50, scaling out at ₱19.50-₱20.00.

✅ Position Size Strategy: 1/2 Allocation, keeping flexibility for re-entries.

Next Steps

📌 Monitor price action near ₱18.00-₱18.50. If ATI holds this level, consider scaling up.

📌 Watch for weakness below ₱16.50. If momentum weakens, reassess the trade and exit below ₱16.40.

📌 Look for re-entry opportunities. If ATI retests ₱16.80-₱17.00 and holds, consider adding more shares.

🚨 Conclusion: Trade No. 6 remains strong, with bullish momentum. A move above ₱18.50 would confirm further upside. 🚨

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Trade Details

Trade No.: 5/20
Date: January 27, 2025
Action: Buy
Entry Type: Pullback Entry
Signal: Price retracing to key support near the 200-MA and retracement zone
Stock: MacroAsia Corporation (MAC)
Shares Bought: 400 out of 800 allocated
Entry Price: ₱5.58
Position Size: 1/2 of target allocation

📌 Chart Overview:

MAC closed at ₱5.16 (-6.52%), dropping below key moving averages.
Price rejected near the 20-MA (₱5.44) and the 200-MA (₱5.31), showing weakness.
50% pullback at ₱6.33 remains a major resistance area.
Support near the 0% pullback level at ₱4.96 is now in play.

MAC Closing Daily Chart with moving averages and retracement levels for trade evaluation on January 27, 2025.

MAC Trade No. 5/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Chart

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

(Each step scored out of 10 based on trade alignment with strategy.)

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context - Score: 6/10

MAC remains in a corrective phase after a prior uptrend.
Failure to hold above moving averages suggests continued selling pressure.
A reversal setup is not yet confirmed.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels - Score: 7/10

Entry at ₱5.58 was near the 200-MA (₱5.31) but failed to hold.
Price is now testing the lower range of the pullback zone, increasing downside risk.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 5/10

Bearish candle with increased volume confirms stronger selling pressure.
Price needs a strong green candle above ₱5.30-₱5.40 to validate a reversal.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels - Score: 7/10

Entry aligned with a logical support level, but price closed weak.
A retest of ₱4.96 is possible if no recovery occurs.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 9/10

Stop-loss placed below ₱5.00 ensures controlled downside risk.
Break below ₱4.96 invalidates the trade.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation - Score: 5/10

No clear bullish color change yet.
A green candle above ₱5.40 is needed for confirmation.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 8/10

First target: ₱5.80-₱6.00 (short-term resistance).
Final target: ₱6.33-₱6.50 (major resistance).

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 6/10

Re-entry near ₱5.16 may be possible, but a breakdown below ₱5.00 negates the setup.
Another opportunity exists above ₱5.40-₱5.50 if strength returns.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management - Score: 7/10

1/2 position deployed, leaving room for scaling if price stabilizes.
Further exposure should only be added above ₱5.40-₱5.50.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 5/10

Not a counter-trend trade, but weakness below ₱5.00 signals the need for caution.
Price needs to reclaim ₱5.40 to justify holding the position.

📌 Overall Strategy Score: 65/100

📌 Summary: Trade entered at a reasonable support zone but failed to hold, requiring immediate risk management decisions.

Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 6.5/10

✅ Trade Execution: Entry positioned at a retracement level, but breakdown occurred.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss at ₱4.96 ensures controlled downside risk.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: First target at ₱5.80, scaling out at ₱6.33-₱6.50.

✅ Position Size Strategy: 1/2 Allocation, keeping flexibility for re-entries.

Next Steps

📌 Monitor price action near ₱5.16-₱5.30. If MAC holds this level, consider holding the position.

📌 Watch for weakness below ₱5.00. If momentum weakens, consider cutting losses.

📌 Look for re-entry opportunities. If MAC retests ₱5.40 and holds, consider adding more shares.

🚨 Conclusion: Trade No. 5 remains weak unless MAC reclaims ₱5.40-₱5.50. If price fails to hold above ₱5.00, an exit is necessary to minimize risk. 🚨

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Sunday, January 26, 2025

Tactical Entry Decision for MAC – January 27, 2025: A Calculated Risk Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Introduction

This trade analysis focuses on a high-conviction tactical entry for MacroAsia Corporation (PSE: MAC) based on our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy. Unlike a full-position entry, this trade is a calculated risk, leveraging technical levels to maximize potential upside while minimizing exposure to downside risk.

We intend to enter 400 shares, which represents 50% of our planned 800-share allocation, in a critical price zone where MAC is trading between the 20-day moving average (20-MA) and the 200-day moving average (200-MA). The goal is to take a strategic position while ensuring that we have room to adjust if price action changes.

MAC Daily Chart showing Tactical Entry between 200-MA and 20-MA

MAC Tactical Entry Decision – Risk-Managed Buy Plan Using the Hybrid 10-Step

Tactical Entry Setup

MAC is currently trading at ₱5.52, sitting just above the 200-MA at ₱5.31 and the 20-MA at ₱5.45. This zone often acts as a critical decision area, where price either rebounds strongly or breaks down further.

A double bottom pattern appears to be forming, with two distinct troughs at ₱4.96, suggesting a possible bullish reversal. However, for this pattern to fully confirm, price must break above ₱6.00 and sustain momentum toward ₱6.33, where strong resistance exists.

The reason for considering a tactical entry now is that the 20-MA and 200-MA are converging, which often signals a high-probability price action zone. Buying within this area allows us to take advantage of a low-risk, high-reward setup while keeping a strict stop-loss strategy in place.

Risk vs. Reward Analysis

The stop-loss for this trade is set at ₱5.20, which is just below the key swing low. If the price breaks below this level, it would invalidate the bullish setup and confirm further downside risk. The first profit target is at ₱6.00, which marks the neckline resistance of the double bottom formation. If price breaks above this level, the second target is ₱6.33, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from its previous downtrend.

If MAC reaches ₱6.00, it represents an 8.69% gain from our entry. If the price extends toward ₱6.33, the profit potential rises to 14.67%. On the downside, if the stop-loss at ₱5.20 is hit, we would incur a 5.80% loss.

This means the risk-to-reward ratio for the first target is approximately 1.5:1, while for the second target, it is 2.5:1, making this a favorable setup with more upside potential than downside risk.

However, if MAC fails to break above ₱6.00 and faces selling pressure, the trade could stall, leading to a potential reversal toward ₱5.00 or lower. This is why strict risk management is necessary, and we will exit the trade if the stop-loss is triggered.

Trade Execution Plan

To manage risk effectively, we will execute this trade in two parts.

First, we will enter 400 shares between ₱5.31 and ₱5.52. This represents 50% of our total planned 800-share position. By starting with a smaller position, we reduce exposure in case of a false breakout while still participating in a potential bullish move.

Second, we will only add the remaining 400 shares if MAC breaks above ₱6.00 with strong volume confirmation. This ensures that we only commit fully to the trade once bullish momentum is validated.

The stop-loss is strictly set at ₱5.20, which will protect against downside risk. If MAC closes below this level, we immediately exit the trade, avoiding further losses.

The profit-taking strategy is to sell 200 shares at ₱6.00 if price reaches the first target. The remaining 200 shares will be sold at ₱6.33 if momentum continues. If the price struggles to hold ₱6.00, we will adjust the plan accordingly to protect gains.

Final Tactical Entry Decision

This is a strategic and calculated risk trade with a favorable risk-to-reward profile.

Reasons why we are taking the trade:

The double bottom pattern is forming, signaling a possible bullish reversal.
The 200-MA is acting as strong support, making this an attractive buy zone.
The risk-to-reward ratio is favorable, with a potential upside of 14.67% and a limited downside of 5.80%.
A break above ₱6.00 would confirm a bullish breakout, which is why we are keeping 50% of our allocation in reserve.

Risks that need to be considered:

The breakout is not yet confirmed.
A false breakout could lead to another rejection at ₱6.00, causing the price to reverse.
If MAC breaks below ₱5.30, it may head toward ₱5.00 or lower, invalidating the bullish setup.

The best way to manage this risk is by keeping our stop-loss strict at ₱5.20 and only committing the second half of the position if MAC confirms the breakout above ₱6.00.

Next Steps

For traders executing this setup:

Buy 400 shares within ₱5.31-₱5.52.
Set a stop-loss at ₱5.20 and do not lower it.
Sell 200 shares at ₱6.00 if the price reaches the first target.
Sell the remaining 200 shares at ₱6.33 if the breakout sustains.
Only add another 400 shares if MAC breaks ₱6.00 with strong volume.

For those who prefer a more conservative approach, it is advisable to wait for MAC to confirm the breakout above ₱6.00 before entering.

If MAC fails to sustain momentum and shows signs of weakness, we will reassess the trade and decide whether to exit early to protect capital.

This is a high-reward trade with moderate risk, but strict discipline is required to ensure a successful execution.

Stock Price Review: MAC Daily Chart – Buy or Sell Decision – January 24, 2025

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Introduction

This stock price review examines MacroAsia Corporation (MAC) as of January 24, 2025, using the daily chart. Our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy is applied to determine whether MAC is a buy, sell, or hold by assessing market structure, trend positioning, and risk management.

Date of Review

📅 January 24, 2025

Stock Price Overview

Stock Name & Ticker: MacroAsia Corporation (MAC)
Timeframe: Daily Chart
Market Trend: Attempting a Downtrend Reversal
Price Position: Trading between the 20-day MA (5.45) and 200-day MA (5.31)
Significant Support & Resistance Levels:
- Support Levels: 4.96 (0% Pullback), 5.31 (200-MA Support)
- Resistance Levels: 6.33 (50% Bullish Reversal), 7.01 (75% Bullish Reversal), 7.69 (100% Pullback)

MAC recently found support near the 200-day MA, bouncing +4.94% to close at 5.52, suggesting early buying interest. However, strong resistance is at 6.33, making it a critical level to watch.

MAC Daily Chart with moving averages, Fibonacci retracements, and price action analysis.

MAC Stock Price Review – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Stock Price Details

Stock Name & Ticker: MacroAsia Corporation (MAC)
Timeframe: Daily Chart
Market Trend: Recovering from a downtrend, but still below key resistance.
Price Position:
- Currently trading at 5.52 (+4.94%)
- Above the 200-day MA (5.31) but struggling to break past the 20-day MA (5.45).
Significant Support & Resistance Levels:
- Support: 4.96 (0% Pullback), 5.31 (200-MA)
- Resistance:
  - 6.33 (50% Bullish Reversal – Key Breakout Level)
  - 7.01 (75% Bullish Reversal – Strong Resistance)
  - 7.69 (100% Pullback – Full Recovery Level)

MAC’s price action suggests accumulation near support, but it must clear the 6.33 resistance zone to confirm a strong reversal.

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Market Trend Classification

📌 MAC has been in a strong downtrend but is now attempting a recovery.

Lower highs and lower lows were dominant from November to early January.
Price is now consolidating near the 200-MA, a potential reversal zone.

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones

Currently trading between the 20-MA (5.45) and 200-MA (5.31).
Key Retracement Levels:
- 6.33 (50% Bullish Reversal) – Major resistance.
- 7.01 (75% Bullish Reversal) – Strong overhead supply zone.
- 4.96 (0% Pullback) – Breakdown risk if price fails to hold.

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation

Strong green candlestick (+4.94%) with volume of 3.4M, above the 9-day average.
Indicates buyer interest, but still below the key resistance zone.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals

A confirmed buy signal occurs if price closes above 6.33.
Breakout traders should wait for price to reclaim this level before entering.

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management

Stop-loss below 5.31 (200-MA) or 4.96 (0% Pullback level).
Risk-reward improves above 6.33 with a target at 7.69.

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation

MAC has printed a strong green candle after a choppy range.
A follow-through day above 5.60 is needed for confirmation.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies

Partial profits can be taken at 6.33 if the rally continues.
Final targets at 7.01 and 7.69 for trend reversal confirmation.

Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones

A pullback to 5.31 with volume support is a low-risk re-entry.
Breakout re-entry above 6.33 signals further upside potential.

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments

A failure to hold 5.31 may lead to a retest of 4.96.
A breakout above 6.33 opens the path to 7.01.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations

Bearish traders may short at 6.33 if a rejection occurs.
Bullish traders should wait for a confirmation above 6.33.

Final Stock Price Assessment

📌 MAC is showing early signs of a reversal but needs confirmation above 6.33.
📌 Holding above the 20-MA (5.45) is key for bullish continuation.
📌 Volume today suggests growing interest, but resistance remains strong.

Buy, Sell, or Hold Decision?

✅ BUY if price closes above 6.33, confirming the breakout.
⚠️ HOLD if price consolidates between 5.31 and 6.33 without a strong move.
❌ SELL/EXIT if price falls below 5.31, as downside risk increases.

Next Steps

📊 Key factors to monitor:

MAC must close above 6.33 for a full bullish breakout.
Watch volume—continued high buying volume strengthens the reversal case.
Stop-loss should be set below 5.31 or at 4.96 to protect against downside risk.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Introduction

MREIT Inc. (PSE: MREIT) is under technical evaluation as of January 24, 2025, following the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy. This analysis aims to determine potential trading opportunities based on trend structure, retracement levels, and key indicators.

MREIT Daily Chart with technical indicators and retracement levels

MREIT Daily Chart Analysis – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Trade Details

Stock Name and Ticker: MREIT Inc. (PSE: MREIT)
Timeframe: Daily Chart
Market Trend: Neutral to Slightly Bullish
Price Position: Above the 200-day MA (13.21) and near the 20-day MA (13.45)
Significant Support & Resistance Levels:
- Support: 13.18 (0% Pullback), 13.21 (200-day MA)
- Resistance: 13.61 (50% Bullish Reversal), 13.83 (75% Bullish Reversal), 14.04 (100% Pullback)

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

MREIT is transitioning from a downtrend (marked by a descending trendline) to a consolidation phase.
The price is stabilizing above the 200-day MA, suggesting potential trend reversal.

Step 2: Assess Price Position & Retracement Levels

The stock is between key retracement levels:
- 50% Bullish Reversal at 13.61 is acting as immediate resistance.
- 0% Pullback at 13.18 serves as key support.

Step 3: Identify Power Bars & Retracement Strength

The recent price action shows a series of small-bodied candles, indicating a lack of strong momentum.
Volume is relatively low (91.3K), meaning no aggressive buying or selling is occurring.

Step 4: Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies

A clear breakout above 13.61 (50% Bullish Reversal Level) with strong volume would be needed for a bullish entry.
A rejection at this level could confirm continued sideways movement.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

Conservative traders can place a stop-loss slightly below 13.21 (200-day MA).
Aggressive traders may use 13.18 (0% Pullback Level) as a cut-off.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

The price is currently holding near the 20-day MA, with a slight bullish bias.
A strong green candle closing above 13.61 would confirm upside momentum.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

Short-term profit target: 13.83 (75% Bullish Reversal).
Extended target: 14.04 (100% Pullback Level).

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

If the stock pulls back to the 20-day MA (13.45) and holds, it could offer a better re-entry opportunity.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

A break below 13.18 signals weakness and could trigger a bearish move.
A sustained hold above 13.61 would suggest strength and a potential retest of 13.83.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

If the price strongly rejects the 50% Bullish Reversal (13.61) with high volume, a short position may be considered.

Final Trade Assessment

Bullish Case: A breakout above 13.61, with volume support, could lead to a move toward 13.83 or even 14.04.
Bearish Case: A rejection at 13.61 or a breakdown below 13.21 (200-day MA) could signal downside risk.
Neutral Bias: Current sideways movement suggests waiting for confirmation before entering a trade.

Next Steps

Monitor for a breakout above 13.61 or a retest of 13.21.
Watch volume levels for confirmation.
Upcoming market events or broader index trends may impact price movement.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Significant Support & Resistance Levels:
- Support: ₱0.90 (0% Pullback Level)
- Resistance Levels:
  - ₱1.02 (20-MA) – Short-term barrier
  - ₱1.45 (50% Bullish Reversal Pullback) – Strong mid-range resistance
  - ₱1.72 (75% Bullish Reversal Pullback) – High-level resistance
  - ₱1.99 (100% Pullback) – Full retracement level

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

FNI remains in a strong downtrend, as the 200-MA at ₱1.48 acts as long-term resistance.
The stock bounced off the ₱0.90 support level but is now facing resistance at ₱1.02 (20-MA).

Step 2: Assess Price Position & Retracement Levels

FNI is trading between the 20-MA and its support at ₱0.90, meaning price action is indecisive.
The failure to break above ₱1.02 (20-MA) could signal another decline.

Step 3: Identify Power Bars & Retracement Strength

The recent green candle (+2.00%) lacks strong volume, suggesting weak bullish conviction.
The previous failed breakout near ₱1.10 reinforces the bearish sentiment.

Step 4: Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies

Buyers: A breakout above ₱1.02 (20-MA) could lead to ₱1.10–₱1.20 short-term targets.
Sellers: A rejection at ₱1.02 or ₱1.10 confirms further downside.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

Bullish traders: Stop-loss below ₱0.88 (below support).
Bearish traders: Stop-loss above ₱1.10 (above minor resistance).

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

A bullish confirmation requires a strong breakout above ₱1.02 and ₱1.10 with volume.
Failure to close above ₱1.02 will reinforce the bearish bias.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

If a bullish breakout occurs, take profits near ₱1.45.
If bearish rejection happens, ₱0.90 remains the target for a retest.

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

Bullish traders can re-enter on a successful retest of ₱1.02 as support.
Bearish traders can short near ₱1.10 or ₱1.45 if resistance holds.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

Monitor 20-MA and 200-MA as trend indicators.
Only hold long positions if price stays above ₱1.02.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

Short opportunities exist at ₱1.10 and ₱1.45 if rejection occurs.
Bullish reversal only confirmed if price moves above ₱1.48 (200-MA).

Final Trade Assessment

Bias: Still bearish unless price sustains above ₱1.02 and ₱1.10.
Best Play for Bulls: Wait for a confirmed breakout above ₱1.10 with volume.
Best Play for Bears: Short near ₱1.02 or ₱1.10 with a target of ₱0.90.

Next Steps

Monitor Price Action at the 20-MA (₱1.02)
- A strong close above ₱1.02 could indicate early reversal.
- A rejection will likely send price back to ₱0.90.
Watch for Resistance Rejection at ₱1.10 and ₱1.45
- If price fails at these levels, expect continued downtrend.
Adjust Trading Strategy Accordingly
- Long trades only above ₱1.10.
- Short positions valid below ₱1.02.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Evaluating MER’s Closing Chart Using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy

Trade Details

Stock: Manila Electric Company (MER)
Market: PSE (Philippine Stock Exchange)
Timeframe: 1-Day (Daily)
Closing Price: ₱486.00 (-1.42%)
Day’s Range: ₱486.00 - ₱494.40
20-MA: ₱484.71 (Short-Term Trend)
200-MA: ₱421.92 (Long-Term Trend)
Volume: 164.98K (SMA 9)

Manila Electric Company (MER) stock chart with moving averages and retracement levels marked for analysis.

MER stock price analysis on January 24, 2025, showing key pullback levels and trend indicators.

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

Trend: MER remains in an uptrend as the price is above both the 20-day moving average (₱484.71) and the 200-day moving average (₱421.92).
Positioning: The price remains in a consolidation phase near the previous resistance of ₱500. However, a pullback from recent highs suggests some short-term selling pressure.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Moving Averages & Key Levels

The price is trading slightly above the 20-MA, indicating that the short-term trend remains intact.
The 50% Sweet Spot Pullback level is ₱476.85, which could serve as a potential support zone.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength

No strong green power bars are present in the latest price action.
The recent red candles indicate a retracement, but the price is still holding above the 20-MA, suggesting a healthy pullback rather than a reversal.

Step 4: Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies

The price is currently near the 25% Sweet Spot Pullback (₱490.18).
If a bullish reversal forms in the next session, it could signal an entry opportunity.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

Stop-loss should be set below the 50% pullback level (₱476.85).
A deeper retracement towards ₱450.20 (100% pullback) would indicate a trend failure.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

A bullish reversal candle (green bar) near the 25%-50% pullback zone would confirm a potential buy signal.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

First target: ₱503.50 (Recent high)
Second target: ₱510+ (Breakout potential)

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

If MER retests the ₱476.85 level and bounces, another entry opportunity may emerge.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

Larger positions can be taken near the 33%-50% retracement zone (₱476-₱490).
If the price falls below ₱450, the trend would likely be invalidated.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

Since MER is in an uptrend, counter-trend trades are not advisable unless a complete trend reversal occurs.

Final Trade Assessment

✅ Bullish Outlook: Despite the pullback, the price remains above key support levels and the short-term moving average.

⚠️ Key Levels to Watch:

Support: ₱484.71 (20-MA), ₱476.85 (50% pullback)
Resistance: ₱503.50 (previous high), ₱510 (breakout level)

📌 Strategy Moving Forward:

Watch for a bullish reversal candle near ₱476-₱490.
Enter with confirmation and set a stop-loss below ₱476.85.
First target: ₱503.50; Second target: ₱510+.

Next Steps

Traders should monitor if MER stabilizes near the 25%-50% pullback zone.
A bounce above ₱490 would confirm the continuation of the uptrend.
A break below ₱476 would indicate further downside risk.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Saturday, January 25, 2025

Evaluating RFM Corporation (PSE) Closing Chart Using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy

Price is at the 20-MA level, which acts as dynamic support.
The 200-MA is far below, reinforcing the bullish long-term trend.
Pullback Zones Identified:
- 0% Pullback: 3.70 PHP
- 50% Bullish Reversal Pullback: 3.87 PHP
- 75% Bullish Reversal Pullback: 3.96 PHP
- 100% Pullback: 4.04 PHP

Step 3: Identify Power Bars & Retracement Strength

The price recently broke out above key resistance levels and is now pulling back.
A mid-range retracement is in progress, aligning with a 50% pullback zone.
No significant bearish power bars yet, suggesting support might hold.

Step 4: Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies

The stock is testing the 20-MA as support.
A reversal signal (e.g., a green candlestick with volume confirmation) at the 50%-75% retracement zone could be an entry trigger.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

Logical Stop-Loss: Below 3.87 PHP (50% pullback).
Aggressive Stop-Loss: Below 3.70 PHP (0% pullback), which invalidates the uptrend.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

If the next candle turns green with a bullish close above the 20-MA, this would strengthen the buying signal.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

Short-term target: 3.96 PHP (75% pullback level)
Medium-term target: 4.04 PHP (previous high, 100% pullback level)

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

If the stock bounces off the 50% retracement (3.87 PHP) and then dips again, a re-entry could be possible.
A break below 3.70 PHP would invalidate the bullish setup.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

Larger position size if the price holds above the 20-MA.
Smaller position size if the price approaches the 50% retracement zone.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

A 100% retracement breakdown (below 3.70 PHP) would suggest a trend failure, triggering a bearish stance.

Final Trade Assessment

Bullish Bias: The uptrend remains intact, as long as the price holds above the 50% pullback level (3.87 PHP) and the 20-MA (3.92 PHP).
Key Level to Watch: A strong green reversal candle at or above 3.87 PHP with volume confirmation.
Trade Plan:
- Entry: If bullish confirmation appears near 3.87 PHP.
- Stop-Loss: Below 3.70 PHP.
- Target: 3.96 PHP (short-term) and 4.04 PHP (full recovery).

Allocation & Deployment Score: 7.8/10 (Effective allocation with potential for further diversification.)
Cash Balance: 39% (Liquidity maintained for flexibility)
Stock Holdings:
- Universal Robina Corporation (URC): 21%
- RL Commercial REIT, Inc. (RCR): 23%
- DDMP REIT Inc. (DDMPR): 10%
- Premiere Island Power REIT Corporation (PREIT): 7%
- Other Stocks (MONDE, ALLHC, ATI): 0%

The allocation reflects our move toward broader diversification among Shariah-compliant stocks and REITs, in line with our Phase 2 objective of testing the strategy across multiple tickers.

3. Phase 2 Trading Parameters & Progress

Trading Execution Score: 8.7/10 (Excellent compliance with entry and exit rules.)
Objective: Execute 20 trades with strict adherence to the strategy.
Key Holdings at Phase 2 Entry:
- URC: 50 shares
- RCR: 1,000 shares
Number of Trades Executed in Phase 2: 4/20 completed

We are sticking to our strategy without deviation, ensuring every trade aligns with our retracement-based entry zones, stop-loss adjustments, and position sizing rules.

4. Market Observations & Next Steps

Market Adaptation & Strategy Adjustment Score: 8.1/10 (Good trade adjustments with minimal impact from market fluctuations.)
Drawdown Management: While early results show a 4.82% realized loss, unrealized losses remain minimal, reinforcing the importance of risk control.
Trade Adjustments:
- URC continues to be a core position, and we will assess further retracements for potential reinforcement.
- RCR remains a high-priority holding due to its technical setup and alignment with the Modified 10-Step Trading Strategy.
- DDMPR and PREIT holdings will be monitored for additional scaling opportunities.
Upcoming Trades: The next batch of trades will further diversify the portfolio, keeping strict adherence to the system’s rules.

5. Final Thoughts: The Road Ahead

Overall Execution & Strategy Adherence Score: 8.4/10 (Steady progression with disciplined execution and adaptability.)

Phase 1 validated our strategy's framework and risk controls, even as minor missteps shaped our adjustments. Now, Phase 2 is fully operational, and the next 16 trades will determine how effectively our strategy performs across different market conditions.

Our focus remains on data-driven execution, ensuring that each trade strictly follows the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy. We will continue monitoring, refining, and adapting while maintaining a disciplined, ethical trading approach.

With 4 of the planned 20 trades completed, we are fully committed to seeing this phase through with precision and discipline. The next update will provide insights into how our strategy performs as we progress through the remainder of Phase 2.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

GAWLOO: Ang Lugawang May Sarap ng Southeast Asia — Gawa ng Batangueñong Galing Abroad

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GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience facade

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GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience Dine-In

Ang may-ari, si Jay Ubana, ay isang Batangueñong cook na nagtrabaho sa Singapore at Dubai ng 12 taon. Sa dami ng napuntahan niyang bansa—Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore—natutunan niyang i-appreciate ang iba't ibang bersyon ng congee. “Paborito talaga ng mga Pinoy ang lugaw,” wika ni Jay, “Kahit anong oras, kahit anong pakiramdam—masarap maglugaw.”

⭐ Lasa't Alaala sa Bawat Higop

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GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience facade

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Pages

Monday, January 27, 2025

Contents:

Trade Details

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context – Score: 7/10

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels – Score: 8/10

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength – Score: 6/10

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels – Score: 7/10

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments – Score: 9/10

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation – Score: 6/10

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets – Score: 8/10

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks – Score: 7/10

Step 9: Tactical Position Management – Score: 7/10

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails – Score: 9/10

Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 7.4/10 (Moderate Setup)

Next Steps

Related Readings

Contents:

Trade Details

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context - Score: 8/10

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels - Score: 8/10

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 9/10

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels - Score: 8/10

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 9/10

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation - Score: 8/10

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 9/10

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 7/10

Step 9: Tactical Position Management - Score: 8/10

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 6/10

Final Trade Assessment

Next Steps

Related Readings

Contents:

Trade Details

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context - Score: 6/10

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels - Score: 7/10

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 5/10

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels - Score: 7/10

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 9/10

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation - Score: 5/10

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 8/10

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 6/10

Step 9: Tactical Position Management - Score: 7/10

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 5/10

Final Trade Assessment

Next Steps

Related Readings

Sunday, January 26, 2025

Contents:

Introduction

Tactical Entry Setup

Risk vs. Reward Analysis

Trade Execution Plan

Final Tactical Entry Decision

Next Steps

Related Post:

Related Readings

Contents:

Introduction

Date of Review

Stock Price Overview

Stock Price Details

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Market Trend Classification

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies

Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations

Final Stock Price Assessment

Buy, Sell, or Hold Decision?

Next Steps