Micro Stock Trader Blog | Ang inyong Batangueñong retail stock trader
Nilalaman:
- Panimula
- Stock Price Review Gamit and Hybrid 10-Step Strategy
- Hatol sa Stock: Bibili ba Dadaan Lang?
- Next Move: Plano Pag Tumama o Sumablay
- Layered Accumulation Plan
- Phased Exit Plan
I. 📌 Panimula
Simula pa noong early June 2025, sunod-sunod na nating sinusuri ang galaw ng ABA (Abacore Capital Holdings, Inc.) bilang bahagi ng ating pangmatagalang trading at layering strategy. Nakapagtala na tayo ng tatlong entry layers sa ₱0.63, ₱0.66, at ₱0.65, at ngayo’y tinitimbang natin kung kailan at paano isusunod ang ika-apat na board lot.
TRADE DETAILS:
Date: July 18, 2025
Stock: Abacore Capital Holdings, Inc. (ABA)
Exchange: PSE
Timeframes: Weekly
Closing Price: ₱0.57
High: ₱0.66
Low: ₱0.52
20-MA (Short-Term): ₱0.55
50-MA (Medium-Term): ₱0.62
200-MA (Long-Term): ₱1.31
Ang pagsusuri na ito ay gamit ang Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant para sa matibay at disiplina’t estratehiya sa pamumuhunan.
II. 🔍 Stock Price Review Gamit ang Hybrid 10-Step Strategy
✅ Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context
ABA attempted a breakout pero hindi nagtuloy-tuloy. Malinaw ang pagbagsak ng presyo sa linggong ito, galing sa short-term resistance na ₱0.70.
Ang presyo ay bumagsak sa ibaba ng 8-MA (₱0.69) at 50-MA (₱0.62), at ngayo’y nakasalo pa lang sa 20-MA (₱0.55).
➡ Verdict: Corrective Pullback within Weak Uptrend – Proceed with caution sa layering.
Score: 7/10
✅ Step 2: Price Position & Long-Term Value Zones
Presyo ngayon ay mid-zone ng support–resistance band: ₱0.55 (support) at ₱0.62 (resistance). Malapit sa retracement sweet spot na 45–55%, na ideal sa Layered Accumulation.
➡ Verdict: Pwede pang dagdagan basta support holds.
Score: 8/10
✅ Step 3: Power Bars, Price Behavior & Volume Shift
May malaking red candle na nagpakita ng rejection sa taas. Pero controlled pa rin ang volume—walang panic selling.
➡ Verdict: Tactical opportunity pa rin habang hindi nababasag ang ₱0.55.
Score: 7/10
✅ Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Fundamentals & Technical Triggers
Asset-rich si ABA at undervalued pa rin kung ikukumpara sa NAV. Wala pang bagong balita, pero base sa galaw ng presyo, ideal ang layering entry sa pullback zone.
➡ Verdict: BUY Layer 4 @ ₱0.57 – Accumulate sa short-term support.
Score: 8/10
✅ Step 5: Stop-Loss Policy Based on Thesis Violation
Ilagay ang hard stop-loss sa ₱0.49, sa ilalim ng 20-MA support at recent swing low. Kung masira ito, thesis break na.
➡ Verdict: Valid pa ang thesis, pero bantayan kung mabasag ang ₱0.55.
Score: 8/10
✅ Step 6: Color Change Signals for Trend Validation
Wala pa tayong green reversal candle ngayong linggo. Kailangan ng bullish engulfing or high-volume green bar sa susunod na linggo.
➡ Verdict: Wait for bullish color change confirmation.
Score: 6/10
✅ Step 7: Profit-Taking via Valuation and Growth Cycles
Nasa early cycle pa. Resistance zones: ₱0.68–₱0.74. Ito ang target zone para sa partial exits.
➡ Verdict: Long-term upside pa rin intact.
Score: 8/10
✅ Step 8: Re-Entry Plans After Market Dips
Kung bumaba sa ₱0.52–₱0.53, may puwang para sa tactical bounce reentry. For now, Layer 4 at ₱0.57 ang focus.
➡ Verdict: Tactical layering in effect, re-entry not yet needed.
Score: 7/10
✅ Step 9: Position Size Planning for Long-Term Portfolios
Tatlong Layer na executed:
-
₱0.63 (1K shares)
-
₱0.66 (1K shares)
-
₱0.65 (1K shares)
-
₱0.57 (1K shares) → tentative Layer 4
Total: 4K shares, average cost approx. ₱0.625
➡ Verdict: Continue gradual buildup.
Score: 9/10
✅ Step 10: Ethical and Counter-Trend Opportunity Considerations
ABA remains ethical and asset-based, walang speculative traps.
➡ Verdict: ✅ Pasok sa ethical long-term portfolio.
Score: 9/10
III. 📌 Hatol sa Stock: Bibili ba o Dadaan Lang?
✅ Final Trade Recommendation: BUY (Layer 4 @ ₱0.57)
✅ Recommendation: Buy at ₱0.57 as Layer 4 in tactical layering plan
✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss below ₱0.49
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Partial exits at ₱0.68 and ₱0.74
✅ Position Size Strategy: Moderate position buildup; next layer only upon breakout above ₱0.62
IV. 🎯 Next Move: Plano Pag Tumama o Sumablay
🔹 Kung Tumama:
→ Monitor breakout sa ₱0.62–₱0.65
→ Prepare Layer 5 upon sustained breakout with volume
🔹 Kung Sumablay:
→ Tighten stop-loss if price breaks below ₱0.55
→ Cut below ₱0.49, then re-evaluate structure
V. 🧱 Updated Layered Accumulation Plan (₱10,000 Capital | 1 Board Lot = 1,000 Shares)
-
Layer 1 (Executed): ₱0.63
-
Layer 2 (Executed): ₱0.66
-
Layer 3 (Executed): ₱0.65
-
Layer 4 (Tentative): ₱0.57
-
Layer 5 (Optional): ₱0.62+ upon breakout confirmation
✅ Total cost so far: Approx. ₱2,500
✅ Shares held: 4,000
✅ Avg. Cost: ~₱0.625
💡 Max planned position: 5K shares
VI. 📤 Phased Exit Plan (Target ₱10,000 Portfolio Recovery)
-
Exit 1: ₱0.68 (20% gain from current average) – Sell 1,000 shares
-
Exit 2: ₱0.74 (mid resistance) – Sell another 1,000 shares
-
Exit 3: Trail remainder with 8-MA as trailing guide
🧠 Final Thought:
Hindi ito momentum trade. Isa itong asset-based tactical position na binubuo habang mababa pa ang presyo. Disiplina at pasensya ang susi.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Paalala lang: Ang post na ito ay para sa informational purposes only at hindi dapat ituring na financial advice. Laging siguraduhing gumawa ng sarili mong research bago pumasok sa kahit anong trade o investment.
Mainam Basahin: Batangueñong Trade Mindset Series
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