URC just completed a full 307-day retracement, pushing the stock into a mature downcycle ideal for SDA accumulation. Using both the Monthly and Daily charts, this assessment shows where URC now sits in the cycle—and why the next layers matter.
📚 Related Reading
📑 Nilalaman
1️⃣ Chart Snapshots (1M + 1D Overview)
2️⃣ Hybrid SDA Interpretation (Macro + Micro Trend Read)
3️⃣ Hatol ng SDA Practitioner (System-Based Reading)
4️⃣ Next Steps (SDA Tactical Plan)
5️⃣ Layered Accumulation Alignment (with URC Reset Ladder)
6️⃣ Phased Exit Pre-Check (Not Activated)
7️⃣ Final SDA Recommendation
8️⃣ Closing Insight
9️⃣ SDA Tactical Alert
1️⃣ CHART SNAPSHOTS
Monthly Chart (1M) — Macro Down-Cycle Still in Control
-
URC remains below all major long-term moving averages (8, 20, 50, 200 MA).
-
The 200 MA (~₱117) is flattening and slowly rolling over — confirming the downcycle.
-
The structure shows a long top formed between 2014–2017, and a multi-year deceleration phase.
-
Price is currently pressing into a multi-year liquidity pocket at ₱60–₱62.
📌 Macro Interpretation:
URC is deep inside a mature downcycle where SDA performs best. Oversold, undervalued, institutionally ignored, but fundamentally intact.
Daily Chart (1D) — Controlled Drift Toward SDA Layers
-
Price is under 8, 20, 50, and 200 MAs — all bearishly stacked.
-
Candles show low volatility, suggesting seller exhaustion, not reversal.
-
Volume continues to decline, indicating the absence of aggressive sellers.
-
URC maintains a steady glide slope toward the Layer 2 zone.
📌 Micro Interpretation:
URC is in the quiet part of the downcycle. This is the moment SDA layers activate naturally.
2️⃣ HYBRID SDA INTERPRETATION (Macro + Micro Trend Read)
The 307-Day 100% Retracement
From January 31, 2025 (₱60.80) to December 4, 2025 (₱62.00):
✔ The entire 2025 move from ₱60 → ₱93 → back to ₱62
✔ A full cycle reset
✔ Comfortable for SDA accumulation
✔ Confirms the end-phase of a complete downcycle
SDA Interpretation:
A full retracement erases the entire bullish impulse.
This sets the stage for:
-
Repricing
-
Value discovery
-
Compression
-
Early accumulation opportunities
URC is now officially in SDA Stage C: Stabilization Zone, entering Stage D: Accumulation next.
3️⃣ HATOL NG SDA PRACTITIONER
“URC is right where SDA wants it to be.”
-
The downcycle is mature.
-
The retracement is complete.
-
The price behavior is consistent with a compression-before-bounce pattern.
-
The next layers are likely to activate within 2–4 weeks, maybe sooner.
-
There is no technical evidence of a trend reversal yet — which is good for accumulation.
SDA View:
URC is behaving exactly as expected for a stock entering the lower half of a downcycle ladder.
4️⃣ NEXT STEPS (SDA TACTICAL PLAN)
A. Expect Sideways Movement: 60–65 Range
This is the most likely near-term behavior.
B. Prepare for Layer 2 Activation
Price is currently at ₱62.00, sitting right at the edge of:
-
Layer 1 (₱63.30–₱61.95)
-
Layer 2 (₱61.90–₱59.95)
Layer 2 is likely to fill in the coming days.
C. Watch for Shakeout to 59–60
A wick into the lower band may activate deeper layers.
D. No Exit Sequence Yet
Trend remains down – exit ladders do not activate during accumulation stages.
5️⃣ UPDATED LAYERED ACCUMULATION ALIGNMENT
(Using our URC SDA Reset Ladder system)
Current Status:
-
Layer 1: Active
-
Layer 2: Next
-
Layer 3–5: Prepared only if deep continuation occurs
Your reset ladder matches current price action perfectly.
6️⃣ PHASED EXIT PRE-CHECK (Not Activated)
URC is still:
-
Below all MAs
-
In a downcycle
-
Far from DYM-based take-profit zones
Therefore, phased exits are not active and not considered at this stage.
7️⃣ FINAL SDA RECOMMENDATION
Short-Term (2–4 Weeks):
-
Expect URC to drift through ₱61.90–₱59.95
-
High probability of Layer 2 partial or full activation
-
Prepare for compression and eventual stabilization
Medium-Term:
-
SDA stages will progress from accumulation → early recovery → MA retest
-
Price may revisit ₱65–₱70 once stabilization completes
SDA Verdict:
Proceed with accumulation as per ladder. No deviations. No discretionary trades.
8️⃣ CLOSING INSIGHT
URC has entered the most important phase of the SDA cycle:
The moment where emotional traders lose interest, and disciplined accumulators quietly build position size.
This is where SDA mastery differentiates itself from ordinary “buy the dip” behavior.
9️⃣ SDA TACTICAL ALERT
Monitor the price behavior around ₱61.90.
A confirmed breach opens the full Layer 2 sequence.
📌 Shariah Compliance Advisory (Updated Nov 26, 2025)
The PSE has confirmed that its Shariah screening program is currently paused, with no new lists to be released until their internal review is completed. Although news outlets reported quarterly updates up to mid-2025, these later lists are no longer accessible on the PSE website.
For now, the PSE’s Shariah-Compliant Securities page and all past lists have been removed from the public website. The December 24, 2024 list is the last official version in Micro Stock Trader’s possession, downloaded before the page was taken down, although other investors may still hold later copies such as the reported July 4, 2025 release.
All halal-focused strategies under Micro Stock Trader will use a conservative, self-screened approach until official guidance resumes, in shā’ Allāh.
Disclaimer
This post is for educational and documentation purposes only. It is not investment advice. Perform your own due diligence and consult qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions. All strategies, frameworks, and examples described here reflect the personal methodologies of Micro Stock Trader and are not guarantees of future performance.
Home | About Us | Contact Us | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use | Disclaimer
No comments:
Post a Comment