📚 Related Reading
📑 Nilalaman
1️⃣ URC is NOT simply in a downtrend
2️⃣ The ₱57.80 and ₱53.50 zones
3️⃣ Is URC going to reverse, or continue downwards?
4️⃣ But is downtrend continuation still possible?
5️⃣ What is the MOST LIKELY OUTCOME now?
5️⃣ The Most Likely Outcome Now
6️⃣ What will confirm the reversal?
**1️⃣ URC is NOT simply in a downtrend.
URC is in a deep secular reset.**
This is no longer a cyclical dip or a routine correction.
URC has now completed what technicians call a multi-cycle reset, something that happens only once every 8–15 years.
A deep secular reset occurs when a stock simultaneously:
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breaks below its pandemic low,
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breaks its 2015–2016 consolidation base,
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breaks its 2018 support zone,
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breaks its 2020 recovery floor,
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and revisits price levels unseen since 2012.
When a stock retraces 100% of a decade-long supercycle, it returns to the price zone where the previous bull market began. For URC, that was the March 2012 → April 2015 → ₱234 peak cycle.
When prices return to the origin of a supercycle, historically two outcomes emerge:
Option A — Capitulation Bottom
Strong V-shaped bottom, followed by multi-year recovery.
Option B — Structural Breakdown
Stock enters a slow, sideways, undervaluation phase lasting years (example: TEL, SCC, MPI).
Right now, URC is between these two outcomes — but leaning toward bottom formation.
📌 2️⃣ The ₱57.80 and ₱53.50 zones now define the “Mother of All Supports.”
These are the two most important price levels on the entire URC chart:
✔️ ₱57.80 — February 2025 low
This is the market’s current pain threshold.
✔️ ₱53.50 — March 2012 low
This is the origin of the 2012–2015 URC supercycle.
Together, these levels form a powerful demand box, the type of zone where:
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long-term investors accumulate heavily,
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institutions quietly build positions,
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secular bottoms often form.
Although URC traded near ₱65–₱90 on lower timeframes during 2018–2023, the monthly candles never established price acceptance in that zone.
Because the monthly bodies never sat inside ₱65–₱90 — except for one panic wick in March 2020 — the zone never developed true price memory.
This means ₱65–₱90 is not a structural support or resistance area on the secular timeframe. Once URC completes its bottom at ₱53–₱58, the recovery move through ₱65–₱90 may be surprisingly fast due to the absence of institutional memory in that region.
But the ₱53–₱58 zone is where URC launched its largest multi-year bull run.
This is what makes it a high-probability reversal battleground.
📌 3️⃣ Is URC going to reverse, or continue downwards?
Based on all available data, the answer is becoming clearer:
⭐ URC is much closer to a major bottom than to a continuation breakdown.
Here’s the evidence:
✔️ Only one support remains: ₱53.50
If bears wanted to destroy URC, they should have broken this in 2023–2024 when momentum was stronger.
✔️ Monthly candles are shrinking
This reveals fading selling pressure — a classic end-of-bear-cycle behavior.
✔️ Volume is rising at historically low prices
This is accumulation behavior, not distribution.
✔️ The angle of decline is flattening
Steep drops → shallow drops → flattening = textbook bottoming sequence.
✔️ URC is now historically undervalued
Compared to 2012, URC today has:
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larger revenue base
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wider product portfolio
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stronger regional presence
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higher cash flows
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higher asset value
Yet it is trading near its 2012 price.
That is what secular bottoms look like.
📌 4️⃣ But is downtrend continuation still possible?
Yes — but only if:
❌ URC breaks ₱53.50 on a monthly close.
If this level breaks, URC enters:
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a valuation black hole
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no structural supports
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pure freefall territory
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market pricing in a deep structural issue
We still consider this scenario low probability, unless a macro shock hits consumer staples.
📌 5️⃣ What is the MOST LIKELY OUTCOME now?
⭐ **A multi-month basing pattern in the ₱58–₱65 zone,
followed by a major reversal in 2026.**
Expect:
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brief dips below ₱60,
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intramonth wicks toward ₱55–₱58,
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but no monthly close below ₱53.50 (unlikely).
This is what a stock looks like at the end of a 3-year secular downtrend, not the middle.
URC is transitioning from decline → to exhaustion → to bottom formation.
📌 6️⃣ What will confirm the reversal?
You need to see these three signals:
Minor (early) Signal
Break above ₱76.55
8-month MA flip.
Intermediate Signal
Break above ₱84.00
20-month MA recovery.
Major Structural Reversal
Break above ₱99.40
This is the midpoint of the 2021–2025 decline.
Once reclaimed, URC transitions into a new long-term bull cycle.
📌 FINAL ANSWER
🟩 URC is NOT likely to continue a deep downward fall unless ₱53.50 breaks.
The chart now shows:
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exhaustion,
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weakening selling pressure,
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bottoming behavior,
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and early signs of accumulation.
🟩 URC is entering a high-probability reversal zone (₱58 → ₱53).
This is where secular bottoms historically form.
🟩 URC has completed a full 2012–2025 retracement —
a major signal that the bear cycle is nearly exhausted.
🟨 Short-term outlook
Expect volatility, sideways chop, dips toward ₱58 or ₱55.
🟦 Medium- to long-term outlook
URC is positioning for a major 2026 recovery cycle.
🟥 Downtrend resumes ONLY if ₱53.50 breaks on a monthly close (unlikely).
📌 Shariah Compliance Advisory (Updated Nov 26, 2025)
The PSE has confirmed that its Shariah screening program is currently paused, with no new lists to be released until their internal review is completed. Although news outlets reported quarterly updates up to mid-2025, these later lists are no longer accessible on the PSE website.
For now, the PSE’s Shariah-Compliant Securities page and all past lists have been removed from the public website. The December 24, 2024 list is the last official version in Micro Stock Trader’s possession, downloaded before the page was taken down, although other investors may still hold later copies such as the reported July 4, 2025 release.
All halal-focused strategies under Micro Stock Trader will use a conservative, self-screened approach until official guidance resumes, in shā’ Allāh.
Disclaimer
This post is for educational and documentation purposes only. It is not investment advice. Perform your own due diligence and consult qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions. All strategies, frameworks, and examples described here reflect the personal methodologies of Micro Stock Trader and are not guarantees of future performance.
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