Stock Price Review: Manila Electric Company (MER) Daily Chart as of February 6, 2025 – Is a Breakout Forming?

Contents:

• Introduction

• Technical Analysis: Price and Trend Overview

• Volume Analysis: Institutional Interest or Just Noise?

• Breakout Trading Strategy: What Really Matters?

• Trading Recommendations Based on the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

• Final Thoughts

Introduction

Manila Electric Company (MER) closed at 488.60 on February 6, 2025, gaining +3.60 (+0.74%) for the day. While MER has been consolidating within the 460–500 range since December 2024, a recent increase in volume raises questions about whether a breakout is forming. This review will assess MER’s price action, volume trends, and breakout potential using our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy.

MER Daily Chart Analysis – February 6, 2025

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Technical Analysis: Price and Trend Overview

1. Current Price Action

• MER closed at 488.60, up +0.74% for the day.
• The short-term trend (20-MA at 481.15) is acting as immediate support.
• The long-term trend (200-MA at 426.54) remains significantly lower, confirming a strong uptrend in the bigger picture.

2. Key Resistance and Consolidation

• MER has been ranging between 460–500 since December 2024.
• 500 remains the key breakout level, while 475–480 serves as near-term support.
• Despite a recent rebound from lows, the price remains within the consolidation zone, meaning no confirmed breakout has occurred yet.

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Volume Analysis: Institutional Interest or Just Noise?

Recent Volume Comparison

• Closing Volume on February 6, 2025: 0.32M
• 65-Day Volume Average (+20%) as of February 5, 2025: 0.27M
• 30-Day Volume Average (+20%) as of February 5, 2025: 0.26M

The 0.32M volume is above historical averages, suggesting increased trading activity. However, higher volume alone does not confirm a breakout—price action must also validate the move.

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Breakout Trading Strategy: What Really Matters?

A breakout strategy prioritizes price first, with volume acting as confirmation. Here’s how to analyze MER’s current setup:

1. Breakout Occurs Only When Price Clears 500

   • Price must decisively break above 500 to confirm a bullish breakout.
   • Until then, MER is still inside the 460–500 consolidation range.

2. Volume Confirms the Move

   • Ideal breakout volume should exceed 0.40M, significantly higher than today’s 0.32M.
   • If volume is low during a price breakout, it could be a false breakout, meaning the price could quickly reverse back inside the range.

3. No Entry if Price is Not in the Sweet Spot

   • Even with higher volume, if the price is still below 500, the breakout is not valid.
   • Decision: WAIT for the price to break above 500 before considering an entry.

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Trading Recommendations Based on the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

🔹 Short-Term Traders (Swing & Momentum)

• Wait for a confirmed breakout above 500 before entering.
• If MER tests 490–500 with volume exceeding 0.35M, a breakout is more likely.
• Support at 480–475 should hold; a breakdown below 475 could signal weakness.
• Stop-loss at 475 for any short-term buy trades.

🔹 Long-Term Investors

• MER is above both the 20-MA and 200-MA, confirming a long-term uptrend.
• Best accumulation zone: 460–470, where price has found support multiple times.
• Holding is recommended unless the stock breaks below 450, which could indicate a deeper correction.

🔹 Existing Holders

• No immediate exit needed, but if volume weakens and MER fails to break 500, expect continued consolidation.
• Consider partial profit-taking at 500–510, as this level has acted as resistance.
• Use a trailing stop at 475–470 to protect gains.

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Final Thoughts

MER is currently in a consolidation phase between 460 and 500, with a potential breakout forming. The increase in volume is encouraging, but price confirmation is still required before entering new positions.

🚨 Final Takeaway: Wait for MER to break 500 with volume exceeding 0.40M before confirming a breakout. No entry until price is in the sweet spot! 🚀

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NOTES ON OUR BREAKOUT TRADING STRATEGY

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How We Arrived at the 0.40M Volume Recommendation for MER’s Breakout Confirmation

The 0.40M volume threshold for confirming a breakout above 500.00 in MER was determined based on historical volume trends, breakout theory, and institutional activity requirements. Below is a breakdown of how we arrived at this figure.

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1. Historical Volume Analysis

Volume Data as of February 6, 2025:

• Closing Volume: 0.32M
• 65-Day Volume Average (+20%): 0.27M
• 30-Day Volume Average (+20%): 0.26M

💡 Interpretation:

• The 0.32M volume on February 6, 2025, was above both the 30-day and 65-day volume averages, indicating increased trading activity.
• However, it was not enough to push the price beyond the 500 resistance level, meaning more volume is needed for a confirmed breakout.

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2. Breakout Volume Rule of Thumb

A valid breakout should have at least 1.5x to 2x the stock’s average volume, ensuring that the price movement is backed by strong institutional participation and not just retail trading.

🔹 Applying This to MER:

• 65-Day Adjusted Average Volume: 0.27M
• Target Volume for Breakout Confirmation:
  • 1.5x of 0.27M → 0.40M
  • 2.0x of 0.27M → 0.54M

Since MER is consolidating within 460–500 and has attempted to break out multiple times without success, the minimum volume threshold for a breakout should be 1.5x the adjusted 65-day average, which equates to 0.40M.

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3. Institutional Accumulation Requirement

• For large-cap stocks like MER, institutions (fund managers, investment firms, and big traders) tend to build positions gradually.
• A sustained volume surge above 0.40M would indicate strong institutional interest, reinforcing that the breakout is not a false move.

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4. Previous Failed Breakout Attempts

• If past breakout attempts at 500 occurred with volume lower than 0.40M and failed, it confirms that higher volume is needed to sustain a move above 500.
• MER’s previous range-bound trading suggests that resistance remains strong, requiring significantly higher participation to break through.

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Conclusion: Why 0.40M is the Key Breakout Volume Threshold

• It is 1.5x the 65-day volume average, aligning with breakout theory.
• It is higher than previous failed breakout volumes, indicating institutional confirmation.
• It ensures MER’s breakout above 500 is sustainable, avoiding false breakouts.

🚨 Final Takeaway: A breakout above 500 will require volume exceeding 0.40M to be considered valid. If volume remains below this level, the breakout is at risk of failing. 🚀

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Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Related Readings

• Micro Stock Trader: The Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy: Integrating Retracement for Better Trades

• Micro Stock Trader: Comparing the Modified 10-Step Trading Strategy vs. Retracement Trading Strategy

• Micro Stock Trader Portfolio Tracker Page

• Micro Stock Trader: Revealed: Our Top 3 Shariah-Compliant Stocks for a Winning Portfolio

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Premiere Island Power REIT Corporation (PREIT): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

MONDE Trade Evaluation: Trade No. 5/20 – Phase 2 Live Testing Review & Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Performance (Feb 5, 2025)

Contents:

• Trade Details

• Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

• Final Trade Assessment

• Next Steps

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Trade Details

• Trade No.: 5/20
• Date: February 5, 2025
• Action: Buy
• Entry Type: Momentum Entry from Early Reversal Attempt
• Signal: Breakout Above Recent Support with Strong Green Bar
• Stock: Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE)
• Shares Bought: Last 500 out of 1200 shares allocated (completing full position)
• Entry Price: ₱7.79
• Position Size: Full allocation completed

📌 Chart Overview:

• Daily Chart: MONDE posted a strong +8.06% gain, closing at ₱7.78 with a volume surge of 13.978M shares, showing renewed interest and an early reversal signal.
• The price is now above ₱7.50 and approaching the 20-MA (₱7.28), a critical short-term resistance level.
• The 200-MA (₱9.67) remains well above, indicating that MONDE is still in a longer-term downtrend.
• Monthly Chart: The price action shows a potential bottoming attempt, with MONDE bouncing from multi-year lows. However, the 20-MA (₱9.12) remains a key resistance level.

MONDE Trade No. 5/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Monthly Chart

MONDE Trade No. 5/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Daily Chart

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Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

(Each step scored out of 10 based on trade alignment with strategy.)

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context - Score: 7/10

• MONDE is in a long-term downtrend but has shown strong signs of a short-term bottom.
• A recovery attempt is underway, but confirmation is needed above ₱8.00-₱8.50.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels - Score: 8/10

• Price is now trading slightly above key support levels but remains under major resistance zones (₱8.50-₱9.00).
• Break above ₱8.00 would confirm a short-term bullish structure.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 9/10

• Strong green candle with increasing volume confirms buying pressure.
• A close above ₱7.80 signals continuation potential.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels - Score: 8/10

• Entry aligns with a bullish move past recent support.
• A break above ₱8.00-₱8.50 would further validate bullish momentum.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 9/10

• Stop-loss set below ₱7.50 ensures controlled downside risk.
• A deeper pullback below ₱7.30 would invalidate the trade setup.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation - Score: 8/10

• Bullish price action with strong volume confirms upward momentum.
• Needs continuation above ₱8.00 for stronger validation.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 9/10

• First target: ₱8.50 (next major resistance).
• Final target: ₱9.50-₱10.00 (longer-term retracement zone).

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 7/10

• A pullback to ₱7.60-₱7.70 could offer another entry opportunity.
• Breakout above ₱8.00-₱8.50 justifies adding more exposure.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management - Score: 8/10

• Full allocation deployed, limiting further scaling.
• Risk management is crucial near resistance levels.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 7/10

• Not a counter-trend trade, but caution is needed near ₱8.50 resistance.
• Failure to hold ₱7.50 could lead to further downside.

📌 Overall Strategy Score: 80/100

📌 Summary: Trade was well-executed based on momentum confirmation, but resistance near ₱8.50 must be monitored.

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Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 8.0/10

✅ Trade Execution: Entry positioned at a breakout level, aligning with short-term trend reversal.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss at ₱7.50 ensures controlled downside risk.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: First target at ₱8.50, scaling out at ₱9.50-₱10.00.

✅ Position Size Strategy: Full allocation, requiring strict risk management.

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Next Steps

📌 Monitor price action near ₱8.00-₱8.50. If MONDE holds this level, consider holding the position for further gains.

📌 Watch for weakness below ₱7.50. If momentum weakens, reassess the trade and adjust stop-loss accordingly.

📌 Look for re-entry opportunities. If MONDE retests ₱7.60 and holds, consider adding more exposure in future setups.

🚨 Conclusion: Trade No. 5 remains strong, with a bullish outlook. A move above ₱8.50 would confirm further upside, while a break below ₱7.50 would require caution. 🚨

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Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Related Readings

• Micro Stock Trader: The Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy: Integrating Retracement for Better Trades

• Micro Stock Trader: Comparing the Modified 10-Step Trading Strategy vs. Retracement Trading Strategy

• Micro Stock Trader Portfolio Tracker Page

• Micro Stock Trader: Revealed: Our Top 3 Shariah-Compliant Stocks for a Winning Portfolio

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Premiere Island Power REIT Corporation (PREIT): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

URC Trade Evaluation: Trade No. 5/20 – Phase 2 Live Testing Review & Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Performance (Feb 5, 2025)

Contents:

• Trade Details

• Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

• Final Trade Assessment

• Next Steps

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Trade Details

• Trade No.: 5/20
• Date: February 5, 2025
• Action: Buy
• Entry Type: Short-Term Reversal Attempt at Multi-Year Lows (Monthly Chart)
• Signal: Strong bullish momentum with increasing volume
• Stock: Universal Robina Corporation (URC)
• Shares Bought: Last 20 out of 70 shares allocated (completing full position)
• Entry Price: ₱61.65
• Position Size: Full allocation completed

📌 Chart Overview:

• Daily Chart: URC posted a strong green candle, closing at ₱61.65 (+6.38%), showing initial recovery from oversold conditions.
• Volume surged to 3.506M, confirming renewed interest in the stock.
• The 20-MA (₱68.15) remains above, serving as the first resistance level.
• The 200-MA (₱95.74) remains significantly above, indicating the long-term trend is still bearish.
• Monthly Chart: URC is at a multi-year low, indicating potential mean reversion if a sustained rally occurs.

URC Trade No. 5/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Monthly Chart

URC Trade No. 5/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Daily Chart

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Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

(Each step scored out of 10 based on trade alignment with strategy.)

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context - Score: 7/10

• URC is in a long-term downtrend but has shown a strong daily recovery.
• First signs of reversal appear, but confirmation is needed above ₱65.00-₱68.00.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels - Score: 7/10

• Price is still below both the 20-MA (₱68.15) and 200-MA (₱95.74), meaning bearish pressure persists.
• Entry near ₱61.65 aligns with short-term retracement potential, but resistance remains overhead.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 9/10

• Strong green candle on high volume suggests a potential shift in momentum.
• If price can hold above ₱60.00, a higher low structure may form.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels - Score: 8/10

• Entry at ₱61.65 aligns with the daily green candle confirmation.
• A break above ₱65.00-₱68.00 would confirm a bullish continuation.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 9/10

• Stop-loss set below ₱58.50 ensures controlled downside risk.
• A breakdown below ₱57.50 would invalidate the trade setup.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation - Score: 8/10

• Bullish price action with strong volume confirms upward momentum.
• Needs continuation above ₱63.00-₱65.00 to further confirm.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 9/10

• First target: ₱68.00 (20-MA resistance).
• Final target: ₱75.00-₱80.00 (next major resistance zone).

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 7/10

• A pullback to ₱60.50-₱61.00 could offer another entry.
• Breakout above ₱65.00 justifies scaling further into the position.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management - Score: 8/10

• Full allocation deployed, limiting further scaling.
• Risk management is crucial near resistance levels.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 7/10

• Not a counter-trend trade, but caution is needed near ₱68.00 resistance.
• Failure to hold ₱60.00 could lead to further downside.

📌 Overall Strategy Score: 79/100

📌 Summary: Trade was well-executed based on momentum confirmation, but resistance near ₱68.00 must be monitored.

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Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 7.9/10

✅ Trade Execution: Entry positioned at a breakout level, aligning with short-term trend reversal.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss at ₱58.50 ensures controlled downside risk.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: First target at ₱68.00, scaling out at ₱75.00-₱80.00.

✅ Position Size Strategy: Full allocation, requiring strict risk management.

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Next Steps

📌 Monitor price action near ₱65.00-₱68.00. If URC holds this level, consider holding the position for further gains.

📌 Watch for weakness below ₱60.00. If momentum weakens, reassess the trade and adjust stop-loss accordingly.

📌 Look for re-entry opportunities. If URC retests ₱60.50 and holds, consider adding more exposure in future setups.

🚨 Conclusion: Trade No. 5 remains strong, with a bullish outlook. A move above ₱68.00 would confirm further upside, while a break below ₱60.00 would require caution. 🚨

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Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Related Readings

• Micro Stock Trader: The Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy: Integrating Retracement for Better Trades

• Micro Stock Trader: Comparing the Modified 10-Step Trading Strategy vs. Retracement Trading Strategy

• Micro Stock Trader Portfolio Tracker Page

• Micro Stock Trader: Revealed: Our Top 3 Shariah-Compliant Stocks for a Winning Portfolio

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Premiere Island Power REIT Corporation (PREIT): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

Summary of the Chronological Evolution of Our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy (January 16, 2025 – February 2025)

Contents:

• Phase 1: Initial Testing of the Strategy

• Phase 2: Expanding to Multiple Stocks

• Major Refinements

• How These Refinements Prepared Us

• Recommendations for February 2025

• Conclusion

Since January 16, 2025, our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy has undergone significant refinements based on live testing through our Budget Ethical Trading Account (BETA). Initially, we focused on single-stock execution using daily charts, but as our understanding deepened, we expanded the approach to multiple stocks and incorporated monthly charts for broader trend confirmation.

 Evolution of Our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy – Key Refinements and Live Trading Insights

Phase 1: Initial Testing of the Strategy (January 16 – January 21, 2025)

• We started with URC as the primary test stock, refining entry and exit strategies using our Modified 10-Step Trading Plan.
• Trading frequency was limited to one entry and exit per week, avoiding overtrading and excessive transaction costs.
• Entries were strictly based on daily charts, with stop-loss discipline introduced early.
• Tactical entries were balanced against core positions to enhance execution and minimize risk.

Phase 2: Expanding to Multiple Stocks (January 21 – February 2025)

• January 21, 2025: Completed Phase 1, after exiting URC due to price weakness, highlighting the importance of disciplined execution.
• January 23, 2025: Began testing multiple stocks (URC, MONDE, ALLHC, DDMPR, and RCR) while applying the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy for trade evaluations.
• January 24, 2025: Conducted our first trade evaluation (URC – Trade No. 3), reinforcing the importance of volume confirmation and trade rating assessments.
• January 31, 2025: Implemented a BETA Portfolio Rebalancing to refine position sizing and sector diversification.

Major Refinements to the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy

As our live testing evolved, we made key adjustments that prepared us for the portfolio-wide rebalancing on January 31, 2025:

1. Shift from Single-Stock Testing to Portfolio-Wide Application

   • Initially, we tested the strategy on URC alone but later expanded to 11 stocks, requiring a new way of assessing trade performance.
   • New Rule: Live testing must now include at least 20 trades per stock rather than 20 trades overall.

2. Integration of Monthly Charts for Long-Term Trend Confirmation

   • While the daily chart remains useful for tactical adjustments, we realized that monthly charts provide a more reliable trend context.
   • New Rule: Monthly charts are now our primary timeframe, while daily charts are used for monitoring daily volume trends and short-term setups.

3. Emphasis on Dynamic Stop-Loss Adjustments

   • Early on, we found that rigid stop-losses were too restrictive, leading to premature exits.
   • New Rule: Implement a hybrid approach with hard stop-losses for deep protection and dynamic stop-losses for trade flexibility.

4. Stronger Trade Evaluation Metrics & Risk-Reward Adjustments

   • By January 24, 2025, we introduced trade rating scores (6.6–8.8 out of 10) to assess entry logic, risk management, and trade execution.
   • New Rule: Trades must have a minimum 7/10 rating before execution to ensure quality setups.

5. Portfolio-Wide Adjustments & Tactical Rebalancing (January 31, 2025)

   • The market's high volatility necessitated reallocating capital across multiple stocks to reduce single-stock exposure.
   • New Rule: Implemented BETA Portfolio Rebalancing to increase diversification and avoid concentration risk.

How These Refinements Prepared Us for the January 31, 2025 Portfolio Rebalancing

Our gradual refinement of the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy ensured that we were well-positioned to handle the market conditions leading up to January 31, 2025:

1. Portfolio Expansion Decision

   • Our realization that 20 trades were insufficient for a true strategy evaluation led us to extend testing to 20 trades per stock.
   • This allowed us to apply the strategy across different market conditions and stock types, avoiding a biased assessment.

2. Risk Control & Dynamic Trade Adjustments

   • The introduction of dynamic stop-losses and volume confirmation helped us exit positions at the right time, minimizing losses.
   • The new rule of waiting for volume-backed breakouts saved us from premature entries.

3. Emphasis on Higher-Quality Trade Setups

   • The 7/10 trade rating threshold ensured that we only executed high-probability trades, reducing unnecessary risks.
   • This forced us to maintain discipline, even when multiple stocks showed potential but lacked sufficient confirmation.

4. Strategic Portfolio Rebalancing

   • By January 31, 2025, we had a clearer understanding of which stocks aligned best with our trading approach.
   • This led to rebalancing our BETA portfolio, ensuring that we had the right mix of core holdings and tactical trades.

Recommendations for February 2025

With our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy now optimized for live market conditions, our next steps focus on further refinement and disciplined execution:

1. Execute the 20-Trade Per Stock Rule

• Our testing must now be expanded to at least 20 trades per stock, ensuring a comprehensive evaluation.
• This will allow us to compare performance across different stocks and market conditions.

2. Strengthen Monthly Chart Implementation

• While the daily chart remains important, our primary trading decisions will now be based on monthly charts.
• This will filter out short-term noise and focus on broader trend movements.

3. Enhance Volume Analysis for Entry & Exit Decisions

• No trade should be executed without volume confirmation supporting the setup.
• Institutional selling pressure must be considered before entering any trade.
• New Rule: We shall only enter breakouts with above-average volume, ensuring institutional support.

4. Maintain Disciplined Execution & Trade Rating System

• We must continue using the 7/10 trade rating system to ensure that only high-quality trades are executed.
• No deviation from the strategy is allowed—absolute discipline is required.

5. Adapt to Market Conditions & Adjust Position Sizing

• Given the volatility observed in January 2025, February’s market conditions must dictate position sizes.
• New Rule: Core positions should remain steady, but tactical entries should be adjusted based on risk-reward ratios.

Conclusion

With the lessons learned from January 2025, we are entering February 2025 with a fully refined version of our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy. The decision to expand testing to 20 trades per stock, focus on monthly charts, and strictly enforce volume-backed breakouts ensures that we execute our trades with absolute discipline.

Our next goal is to execute a minimum of 20 trades per stock with full adherence to the strategy. After completing this expanded live testing, we will conduct a final performance review to determine the overall effectiveness of the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy.

🚀 February 2025 marks the next evolution of our trading journey. The strategy is set—now, it’s all about disciplined execution. 🚀

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Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Related Readings

• Micro Stock Trader: The Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy: Integrating Retracement for Better Trades

• Micro Stock Trader: Comparing the Modified 10-Step Trading Strategy vs. Retracement Trading Strategy

• Micro Stock Trader Portfolio Tracker Page

• Micro Stock Trader: Revealed: Our Top 3 Shariah-Compliant Stocks for a Winning Portfolio

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Premiere Island Power REIT Corporation (PREIT): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

URC Trade Evaluation: 4 of 20 Trades Phase 2 Live Testing Review as of February 4, 2025 – Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Performance Score

Contents:

• Introduction

• URC Trade Summary (Live Testing Phase 2)

• Step-by-Step Performance Evaluation (10-Point Rating System)

• Final Trade Performance Score & Insights

• Next Steps & Adjustments

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Introduction

Universal Robina Corporation (URC) has been part of our 20-Trades Phase 2 Live Testing to assess the effectiveness of our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy. This review covers 4 trades executed between January 21, 2025, and February 4, 2025, focusing on trade execution, decision-making, and risk management.

Key Objectives:

✅ Evaluate trade performance based on technical execution.

✅ Assign ratings using a 10-point scoring system for each step.

✅ Provide insights and necessary adjustments to refine our strategy.

URC Price Monthly Chart Evaluation – 20-Trade Phase 2 Live Testing as of February 4, 2025.

URC Price Daily Chart Evaluation – 20-Trade Phase 2 Live Testing as of February 4, 2025.

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URC Trade Summary (Live Testing Phase 2)Trade History:

Trade 1/20: January 21, 2025 – BUY 50 shares at Php 65.95

Trade 2/20: January 23, 2025 – BUY 50 shares at Php 66.85

Trade 3/20: January 31, 2025 – SELL 100 shares at Php 64.10

Trade 4/20: February 4, 2025 – BUY 50 shares at Php 58.00

Financial Performance Summary:

✅ Total Gain/Loss as of February 4, 2025: Net loss of Php 1,823.04

✅ URC Current Price: Php 57.95 (February 4, 2025)

✅ Technical Review:

• Monthly Chart: Price is well below the 200-MA (Php 113.91) and 20-MA (Php 101.85), confirming a long-term downtrend.

• Daily Chart: Price is trading below the 200-MA (Php 95.93) and 20-MA (Php 69.19), signaling short-term bearish pressure.

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Step-by-Step Performance Evaluation (10-Point Rating System)

Step 1: Market State & Trend Context

✅ Evaluation: URC is in a confirmed downtrend, trading significantly below the 20-MA and 200-MA. Despite this, re-entry at Php 58 was based on increased volume.

🔹 Score: 7/10 (Good awareness of the trend, but early re-entry in a weak market.)

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones

✅ Evaluation: Price was far below key moving averages, increasing downside risk. Entry was made where consolidation was expected but lacked strong confirmation.

🔹 Score: 6/10 (Good setup, but better entry confirmation needed.)

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation

✅ Evaluation: Entry at Php 58 saw volume rise to 3.782M, but power bars were absent, suggesting weak conviction.

🔹 Score: 5/10 (Entry volume was good, but price action was weak.)

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals

✅ Evaluation: No significant bullish reversal signals were present at the time of entry, increasing the risk of a continuation of the downtrend.

🔹 Score: 4/10 (Weak technical confirmation.)

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management

✅ Evaluation: A tight stop-loss strategy was implemented, but entering a downtrend still posed high risk.

🔹 Score: 6/10 (Managed risk effectively but better entry was needed.)

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation

✅ Evaluation: Candlestick patterns did not strongly indicate a trend reversal, and a potential dead-cat bounce was a concern.

🔹 Score: 5/10 (No strong reversal signals confirmed.)

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits

✅ Evaluation: Partial exits were considered but not effectively executed as price continued downward.

🔹 Score: 5/10 (Needed better execution of profit-taking.)

Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones

✅ Evaluation: Re-entry at Php 58 seemed reasonable but lacked strong technical backing.

🔹 Score: 6/10 (Better confirmation needed before re-entering.)

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments

✅ Evaluation: Position sizing was moderate but could have been adjusted based on bearish continuation.

🔹 Score: 6/10 (More flexible adjustments required.)

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations

✅ Evaluation: Entering against a strong downtrend was risky without two consecutive gap-downs.

🔹 Score: 4/10 (More conservative approach needed.)

Final Performance Score: 57/100 (Needs Improvement)

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Final Trade Performance Score & Insights

✅ Key Takeaways:

• Good volume analysis, but weak price action confirmation.

• Entering below moving averages increased downside risk.

• Improvements needed in patience for trend confirmation and more tactical position sizing.

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Justification of URC Trade 4/20

Key Observations:

• URC remains far below both moving averages, reinforcing strong bearish momentum.

• The recent re-entry at ₱58.00 was based on:

• Significant volume (3.782M), indicating potential institutional activity.

• Price stabilizing between ₱57.80 – ₱61.25, suggesting early bottoming signals.

Justification for Re-Entry at ₱58.00:

Despite the overall downtrend, our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy allowed a re-entry based on:

✅ Significant Trading Volume: At 3.782M, volume was high, implying potential accumulation.

✅ Oversold Condition: Price is significantly below the 20-MA and 200-MA, indicating a possible rebound.

✅ Stable Range Formation: ₱57.80 – ₱61.25 held firm, reducing immediate downside risk.

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Next Steps & Adjustments

Tactical Adjustments:

• Monitor price action near Php 57.80 – Php 61.25.

• Avoid premature re-entry unless bullish confirmation emerges.

• Use a tight stop-loss strategy to prevent further downside risk.

Future Trading Considerations:

🔹 Short-term traders: Wait for a breakout above the 20-MA before entering.

🔹 Long-term investors: Accumulate cautiously near strong support levels.

🔹 Existing holders: Reassess stop-loss and take-profit zones based on new trends.

🚨 Final Thought: Trend confirmation is key. Avoid catching a falling knife without clear signals. 🚨

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Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Related Readings

• Micro Stock Trader: The Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy: Integrating Retracement for Better Trades

• Micro Stock Trader: Comparing the Modified 10-Step Trading Strategy vs. Retracement Trading Strategy

• Micro Stock Trader Portfolio Tracker Page

• Micro Stock Trader: Revealed: Our Top 3 Shariah-Compliant Stocks for a Winning Portfolio

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Premiere Island Power REIT Corporation (PREIT): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

BETA Portfolio Rebalancing: February 2025 Strategy Amid PSEi Bear Market

Contents:

• Introduction

• PSEi Market Situationer: February 2025 Outlook

• Current BETA Portfolio Analysis

• Recommended Adjustments for February 2025

• Final Portfolio Strategy for February 2025

Introduction

The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) has officially entered bear market territory, declining by 22.4% from its recent high of 7,554 in October. This downturn is attributed to disappointing macroeconomic data and a major index rebalancing, leaving investors searching for catalysts to revive the market.

In light of these developments, it's crucial to reassess our BETA Portfolio to ensure it remains resilient and well-positioned for future market recoveries. Our strategy this month focuses on optimizing growth stock allocations, adjusting REIT positions, and maintaining defensive dividend stocks.

Optimizing the BETA Portfolio amid PSEi market downturn

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PSEi Market Situationer: February 2025 Outlook

As of January 31, 2025, the PSEi closed at 5,862.59, marking its lowest level in over two years. This decline reflects the impact of a slowing economy, persistent inflation, and recent storms. Jonathan Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., noted, "We were affected by sticky inflation, the impact of the storms and there appears to be no clear positive support for growth in 2025, except for the infrastructure spending of the government."

The recent index rebalancing, which saw the inclusion of China Banking Corp. and AREIT Inc., also contributed to market volatility. AP Securities Inc. research head Alfred Benjamin Garcia explained that the combined free-float weighted market capitalization of these new entries required adjustments across all index stocks.

Given these factors, opportunities will be selective. It's essential to focus on growth stocks demonstrating technical resilience, defensive dividend stocks for stability, and maintaining liquidity to capitalize on potential bullish reversals.

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Current BETA Portfolio Analysis

Our BETA Portfolio is currently 98% invested, with only 2% held in cash, limiting our flexibility for opportunistic trades. The current allocations are:

• Growth Stocks: 32% – Positioned for long-term appreciation but lacking confirmed breakouts.

• REITs: 39% – Providing passive income but overweighted in a market where capital appreciation is uncertain.

• Dividend Stocks: 27% – Defensive holdings offering stability amid PSEi volatility.

To optimize risk exposure, increase liquidity, and reallocate capital to high-conviction trades, we recommend the following adjustments.

• Micro Stock Trader: BETA Tracker Update - January 31, 2025