Thursday, January 23, 2025

Live Testing the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy – Day 4, Week 4: Evaluating URC, MONDE, ALLHC, DDMPR, and RCR for Potential Trades

As we progress into Day 4 of Week 4 in Phase 2 of live testing our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy, we are still on the hunt for our first trade under this phase. The objective remains the same—identifying high-probability trade setups while ensuring strict adherence to risk management.

Despite multiple evaluations over the past weeks, no setup has met our strict entry criteria for initiating a position. This disciplined approach ensures that we do not force trades in unfavorable market conditions. Today, we are revisiting five stocks—URC, MONDE, ALLHC, DDMPR, and RCR—to evaluate their potential trade setups based on our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy.

January 22, 2025, closing chart of DDMPR analyzed under the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy.

Are We Any Closer to Finding Our First Trade?

Today’s post will break down:
✅ Key technical insights from each stock’s January 22, 2025 closing chart.
✅ Buy and sell signals we are looking for today (January 23, 2025).
✅ Recommended stop-loss levels and profit-taking zones.
✅ Our overall game plan moving forward.

The analysis will determine if any of these stocks present a solid trade opportunity or if we continue to wait for better setups.

Stock Evaluations Using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy

1. URC (Universal Robina Corporation) – Bearish Continuation with No Clear Reversal Yet

Market State & Trend Context (Step 1)

URC remains in a strong downtrend, consistently making lower highs and lower lows.

The 200-day moving average (97.59) is trending downward, confirming long-term bearish sentiment.
The 20-day moving average (74.90) is also declining, acting as dynamic resistance.
URC closed at 64.50, significantly below both moving averages, reinforcing continued weakness.

Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones (Step 2)

Major resistance is at 75.00, near the 20-MA rejection zone.
Immediate support at 64.00 - 60.00 remains key for potential stabilization.
A break below 64.00 could open the door for further downside toward 58.00 - 60.00.

Power Bars & Retracement Strength (Step 3)

Recent red power bars with increasing volume suggest strong selling pressure.
No green power bars have emerged, meaning buyers are not stepping in aggressively yet.

Buy and Sell Signals We Are Looking for Today (January 23, 2025)

Buy Signal: A green power bar closing above 66.00 with volume could indicate a potential short-term reversal.
Sell Signal: A break below 64.00 would confirm continued bearish momentum.

Risk Management

Stop-Loss Level: 60.00, ensuring risk control if the decline continues.
Partial Profit-Taking Level: 70.00 - 72.00, where resistance may emerge.

👉 Verdict: No trade setup yet. We need confirmation of a reversal before considering a long trade.

2. MONDE (Monde Nissin Corporation) – Signs of Stabilization, but Not Ready for a Long Entry

Market State & Trend Context (Step 1)

MONDE is still in a downtrend, though it is showing early signs of stabilization above 7.00.

20-MA (7.72) is a key resistance level to break before a bullish move can be confirmed.
7.00 is acting as strong support, with buyers attempting to defend this level.

Buy and Sell Signals We Are Looking for Today (January 23, 2025)

Buy Signal: A break above 7.50 with volume, indicating bullish momentum toward 7.72 - 8.00.
Sell Signal: A failure to break 7.50, or a red power bar near this level, could lead to a retest of 7.00 - 6.80.

Risk Management

Stop-Loss Level: 6.90, protecting against downside risks.
Partial Profit-Taking Level: 7.80 - 8.00, aligning with resistance.

👉 Verdict: No trade yet. We need a strong breakout above 7.50.

3. ALLHC (AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp.) – Holding at Support, but Resistance is Strong

Buy and Sell Signals We Are Looking for Today (January 23, 2025)

Buy Signal: A breakout above 1.75 with volume, confirming a potential reversal.
Sell Signal: A failure to break 1.70, signaling continued weakness.

Risk Management

Stop-Loss Level: 1.60, limiting downside risk.
Partial Profit-Taking Level: 1.80 - 1.85, where resistance may emerge.

👉 Verdict: No trade yet. We need to see confirmation of a breakout.

4. DDMPR (DDMP REIT Inc.) – Attempting to Hold Support, but Lacks Strength

Buy and Sell Signals We Are Looking for Today (January 23, 2025)

Buy Signal: A bounce off 1.05 with a strong green power bar, indicating buyers stepping in.
Sell Signal: A break below 1.05, signaling further downside risk.

Risk Management

Stop-Loss Level: 1.03, keeping losses minimal.
Partial Profit-Taking Level: 1.08 - 1.10, aligning with 200-MA resistance.

👉 Verdict: No trade yet. Needs confirmation of support holding.

5. RCR (RL Commercial REIT Inc.) – Consolidating Near Breakout Levels

Buy and Sell Signals We Are Looking for Today (January 23, 2025)

Buy Signal: A break above 6.00 with volume, confirming a bullish breakout.
Sell Signal: A failure to hold above 5.88, leading to a potential pullback.

Risk Management

Stop-Loss Level: 5.85, protecting against a breakdown.
Partial Profit-Taking Level: 6.10 - 6.20, where sellers may emerge.

👉 Verdict: Closest to a trade setup, but needs confirmation of breakout.

Final Thoughts – Are We Entering Our First Trade Today?

Based on today’s evaluation, RCR is the closest stock to providing a potential buy setup, but we need to see a breakout above 6.00 with strong volume before entering.

For URC, MONDE, ALLHC, and DDMPR, none of them currently offer a strong enough setup to justify a trade. We remain on standby, ensuring we only take high-probability trades that align with our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy.

Key Takeaways for January 23, 2025

✅ Stay patient – No forced trades!

✅ Monitor RCR closely for a potential breakout.

✅ Wait for green power bars and strong volume before entering trades.

✅ Stick to our stop-loss and profit-taking strategy.

🚀 The goal remains the same: Secure our first trade under Phase 2 – but only when conditions align!

URC (Universal Robina Corporation) January 22, 2025, Daily Chart Analysis Using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy

RCR (RL Commercial REIT Inc.) January 22, 2025, Daily Chart Analysis Using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy

DDMPR (DDMP REIT Inc.) January 22, 2025, Daily Chart Analysis Using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy

ALLHC (AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp.) January 22, 2025, Daily Chart Analysis Using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy

MONDE (Monde Nissin Corporation) January 22, 2025, Daily Chart Analysis Using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE) remains in a downtrend, though recent price action suggests early signs of stabilization above 7.00. The 20-day moving average (7.72) is a key resistance level, with 7.50 - 7.72 serving as the next critical test. A break above 7.50 with strong volume could signal a potential short-term reversal, while failure to sustain above 7.00 could lead to a retest of 6.80 - 6.50. Given the broader bearish trend, traders should remain cautious and wait for confirmation of strength before entering long positions.

MONDE’s January 22, 2025, daily chart shows signs of stabilization, with key resistance at 7.72 and support at 7.00.

Market State & Trend Context (Step 1)

MONDE remains in a long-term downtrend, despite recent signs of a potential short-term bounce:

The 200-day moving average (9.85) is trending downward, confirming a bearish long-term structure.
The 20-day moving average (7.72) is acting as immediate resistance.
The stock is attempting to stabilize above 7.00, a key psychological and technical level.

Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones (Step 2)

The price is below both the 20-MA and 200-MA, indicating continued weakness.
Key resistance lies at 7.72 - 8.00, aligning with the 20-MA rejection zone.
Support is forming at 7.00, where buyers are starting to step in.
If price breaks below 7.00, the next downside target would be 6.50 - 6.70.

Power Bars & Retracement Strength (Step 3)

A green power bar has appeared, signaling renewed buying interest.
However, volume remains uncertain, meaning follow-through is necessary to confirm strength.
If price breaks above 7.50 with volume, it could challenge the 7.72 - 8.00 resistance zone.

Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies (Step 4)

Long entries should only be considered if price clears 7.50 with a strong green candle and volume spike.
Short trades remain viable if price rejects 7.72 - 8.00 at the 20-MA resistance level.

Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments (Step 5)

For longs, a stop-loss should be placed below 6.90, ensuring protection against breakdown risk.
For shorts, stop-loss should be above 8.10, as a breakout above this level could signal trend reversal.

Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation (Step 6)

A shift to green near support (7.00) suggests some bullish pressure.
A strong green candle above 7.50 would further validate a bullish case.

Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets (Step 7)

For shorts, taking profits at 7.00 - 6.80 is advisable.
For longs, exits should be targeted near 7.80 - 8.00, where resistance is expected.

Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks (Step 8)

A pullback to 7.00 with support confirmation could be a re-entry point for long trades.
A failed breakout above 7.80 would offer another shorting opportunity.

Tactical Position Management (Step 9)

Long trades should be sized cautiously, given the strong downtrend structure.
If price rejects 7.72, adding short exposure could be beneficial.

Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails (Step 10)

A counter-trend trade (long) should only be considered if price closes above 7.50 with strong volume.
Until confirmation, the safer strategy remains to trade with the downtrend.

Conclusion

The January 22, 2025, daily chart of MONDE suggests early signs of stabilization, but resistance at 7.72 - 8.00 remains a major test.

A break above 7.50 with strong volume could indicate a short-term recovery.
If price fails at 7.72 - 8.00, another leg downward toward 6.80 - 7.00 is likely.
Traders should wait for confirmation before making directional trades.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Overview

AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp. (ALLHC) remains in a bearish trend, with the price struggling below the 200-day moving average (1.88) and facing immediate resistance at 1.70 - 1.75. The 20-day moving average (1.67) is acting as a short-term barrier, while support is forming at 1.60 - 1.65. Although there are minor signs of stabilization, bullish momentum remains weak, and a break above 1.75 with volume is necessary to consider a potential trend shift. Otherwise, a continuation towards 1.60 - 1.55 remains likely, making short trades at resistance the more favorable setup.

Technical chart of ALLHC on January 22, 2025, displaying moving averages, price trends, and volume indicators.

ALLHC’s January 22, 2025, daily chart shows signs of stabilization, with key resistance at 1.75 and support near 1.60.

Market State & Trend Context (Step 1)

ALLHC is in a long-term downtrend, with price action showing lower highs and lower lows since November 2024.

The 200-day moving average (1.88) is significantly above the price, indicating an extended downtrend.
The 20-day moving average (1.67) is currently acting as a short-term resistance zone.
The stock is attempting to stabilize around the 1.65 - 1.70 range, suggesting possible bottoming behavior.

Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones (Step 2)

The price is below both the 20-MA and 200-MA, confirming overall weakness.
Key resistance is near 1.70 - 1.75, aligning with the recent price rejections at the 20-MA.
Support is forming at 1.60 - 1.65, where recent price action has seen buyers stepping in.
A retracement attempt towards 1.75 - 1.80 would be a critical test for bullish momentum.

Power Bars & Retracement Strength (Step 3)

The last few candles show low volatility, indicating indecision.
No strong green power bars have emerged to confirm bullish conviction.
A sustained break above 1.70 - 1.75 with volume would signal early trend reversal potential.

Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies (Step 4)

Short entries remain viable if the price gets rejected near the 1.75 zone, aligning with the downtrend structure.
Long trades require confirmation, such as a strong green candle above 1.70 with higher volume.

Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments (Step 5)

For shorts, stop-loss should be placed above 1.80, where a trend shift might occur.
For longs, a stop-loss near 1.60 ensures protection against breakdown risks.

Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation (Step 6)

The recent green candle at 1.68 suggests minor buying interest, but it lacks strong follow-through.
A clear color change to green above 1.70 with volume would provide a bullish signal.

Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets (Step 7)

For shorts, taking profits at 1.60 - 1.55 ensures gains within the downtrend.
For longs, exits should be planned near 1.75 - 1.80, where major resistance exists.

Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks (Step 8)

A re-entry opportunity for bulls would appear if price pulls back to 1.60 and holds.
A failed breakout above 1.75 could offer another short entry for bearish continuation.

Tactical Position Management (Step 9)

Smaller position sizes are recommended due to low trading volume and uncertain trend direction.
If price reclaims 1.80 with conviction, increasing long exposure could be considered.

Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails (Step 10)

A counter-trend long trade is only justified if price stabilizes above 1.75 with strong bullish power bars.
Until then, the bearish bias remains dominant, and short trades at resistance remain the safer option.

Conclusion

The January 22, 2025, daily chart of ALLHC shows bearish conditions, but the stock is attempting to stabilize around 1.65 - 1.70. A break above 1.75 with volume could signal a potential trend reversal, while rejection at this level favors continued downside moves. Traders should wait for confirmation before committing to long positions.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

DDMP REIT Inc. (DDMPR) is attempting a recovery, but the 200-day moving average (1.09) remains a strong resistance level, leading to a recent pullback. The price is currently hovering around the 20-MA (1.06), which is serving as short-term support. A successful bounce from 1.05 with a green power bar could signal a renewed bullish attempt, but failure to hold this level may lead to a decline toward 1.03 - 1.02. Traders should look for a breakout above 1.09 with volume to confirm further upside or remain cautious of potential downside risks.

DDMPR’s January 22, 2025, daily chart shows rejection at the 200-MA, with key support at 1.05 and resistance at 1.09.

Market State & Trend Context (Step 1)

DDMPR is showing early signs of a potential recovery, but the long-term trend remains bearish:

The 200-day moving average (1.09) continues to slope downward, reinforcing the broader downtrend.
The 20-day moving average (1.06) is acting as a short-term support.
The price recently tested the 200-MA resistance at 1.09 but failed to break through.

Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones (Step 2)

The price is above the 20-MA but below the 200-MA, indicating a transition phase rather than a clear trend shift.
Resistance is at 1.09 - 1.10, aligning with the 200-MA rejection.
Support is at 1.05 - 1.06, where the 20-MA is currently holding as dynamic support.
A deeper retracement might lead to a retest of 1.02 - 1.03, an area of prior consolidation.

Power Bars & Retracement Strength (Step 3)

A strong bullish move pushed the stock towards 1.09, but recent price action shows a sharp rejection.
The current pullback lacks a green power bar, signaling weak bullish momentum.
A strong bounce from 1.05 or lower would indicate a better entry for long positions.

Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies (Step 4)

Long trades should only be considered if price holds above 1.05 and shows a strong green candle with volume.
Short trades remain viable as long as the price stays below 1.09, rejecting the 200-MA.

Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments (Step 5)

For longs, a stop-loss at 1.03 would protect against a breakdown.
For shorts, stop-loss should be placed above 1.10, as a breakout beyond this level could indicate trend reversal potential.

Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation (Step 6)

The last few trading days show a mix of red and green, signaling market indecision.
A strong green candle above 1.06 would provide a bullish entry signal.

Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets (Step 7)

For shorts, profit-taking should be considered around 1.03 - 1.02.
For longs, targets should be set at 1.08 - 1.10, where strong resistance lies.

Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks (Step 8)

If price bounces from 1.05 or consolidates near 1.02, it could provide a better long re-entry.
A failed breakout above 1.09 could offer another shorting opportunity.

Tactical Position Management (Step 9)

Long trades should be small until confirmation of strength above 1.09.
If price rejects 1.09 again, a larger short position may be justified.

Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails (Step 10)

A counter-trend trade (long position) can only be justified if price holds above 1.06 and volume supports the move.
Otherwise, bearish momentum remains intact, and traders should focus on shorting at resistance levels.

Conclusion

The January 22, 2025, daily chart of DDMPR shows early recovery attempts, but the 200-MA rejection at 1.09 keeps the stock under bearish pressure.

If price holds above 1.06, a potential breakout attempt could develop.
If price fails to sustain above 1.05, expect a retracement towards 1.03 - 1.02.
Traders should wait for confirmation before committing to directional trades.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

RL Commercial REIT Inc. (RCR) is showing bullish consolidation, trading above both the 20-day (5.88) and 200-day (5.60) moving averages. The price is attempting to break out from the 5.98 resistance level, with 6.00 - 6.10 acting as a crucial barrier for further upside. If RCR manages to break 6.00 with strong volume, the next potential target would be 6.20 - 6.30. However, failure to hold above 5.88 could lead to a retracement towards the 5.75 - 5.60 support zone, making it essential to watch for breakout confirmation before entering long positions.

Technical chart of RCR on January 22, 2025, displaying moving averages, price trends, and volume indicators.

RCR’s January 22, 2025, daily chart is testing the 6.00 resistance, with bullish momentum supported by the 20-MA and 200-MA.

Market State & Trend Context (Step 1)

RCR appears to be in a consolidation phase following an uptrend:

The 200-day moving average (5.60) is trending upwards, indicating a long-term bullish trend.
The 20-day moving average (5.88) is acting as near-term support, keeping the price in a stable range.
The stock is currently trading at 5.98, slightly above both moving averages, which favors a bullish bias.

Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones (Step 2)

The price is above both the 20-MA and 200-MA, a bullish signal.
Key resistance lies at 6.00 - 6.10, where previous price action has seen selling pressure.
Support is forming at 5.85 - 5.88, with additional support at 5.60 (200-MA).
If price breaks 6.00 with strong volume, a continuation towards 6.20 - 6.30 could be expected.

Power Bars & Retracement Strength (Step 3)

The stock has built a base around 5.80 - 5.90, indicating buyers are absorbing supply.
The recent move toward 6.00 suggests increasing bullish momentum.
A green power bar closing above 6.00 with strong volume would confirm a bullish breakout.

Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies (Step 4)

Long trades should be considered on a breakout above 6.00, with confirmation from higher-than-average volume.
Short trades could be taken if price rejects 6.00 - 6.10, signaling resistance remains strong.

Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments (Step 5)

For longs, a stop-loss at 5.85 ensures risk management.
For shorts, stop-loss should be placed above 6.10, where a breakout would invalidate the bearish thesis.

Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation (Step 6)

A strong green candle above 6.00 would indicate a confirmed breakout.
If price turns red near 6.00, a rejection scenario could develop.

Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets (Step 7)

For longs, profit-taking could be set at 6.10 - 6.20, with potential for higher targets if momentum sustains.
For shorts, taking profits around 5.85 - 5.75 would be ideal.

Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks (Step 8)

A pullback to 5.85 with support confirmation could be a good buying opportunity.
A failed breakout at 6.00 could offer a short trade re-entry.

Tactical Position Management (Step 9)

For bullish trades, position sizing can be increased above 6.00 with confirmation.
For bearish trades, short exposure can be managed cautiously if resistance holds.

Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails (Step 10)

A counter-trend short position can only be justified if 6.00 - 6.10 rejection is clear.
Otherwise, the bullish trend remains intact, favoring long positions on dips.

Conclusion

The January 22, 2025, daily chart of RCR shows a potential breakout above 6.00, with strong bullish positioning above both moving averages.

A breakout beyond 6.00 with volume would confirm a bullish continuation.
If price fails at 6.00, expect a retracement to 5.85 - 5.88 for re-entry.
Traders should monitor 6.00 closely for breakout confirmation.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Overview

Universal Robina Corporation (URC) remains in a strong downtrend, with price continuing to make lower highs and lower lows. The stock is trading well below both the 20-day moving average (74.90) and the 200-day moving average (97.59), confirming sustained bearish momentum. Resistance at 75.00 remains a critical hurdle, while support is forming at 64.00 - 60.00. Recent red power bars and increased volume indicate persistent selling pressure, suggesting further downside risk. While a short-term bounce is possible, long positions should only be considered if price stabilizes and forms a strong bullish signal above 64.00. Until then, short trades remain the preferred strategy, with potential downside targets at 60.00 - 58.00. resistance.

Technical chart of URC on January 22, 2025, displaying moving averages, price trends, and volume indicators.

URC’s January 22, 2025, daily chart shows strong bearish momentum, with key resistance at 75.00 and support forming around 60.00.

Market State & Trend Context (Step 1)

Universal Robina Corporation (URC) remains in a strong downtrend, with the price making lower highs and lower lows:

The 200-day moving average (97.59) is sloping downward, confirming a long-term bearish trend.
The 20-day moving average (74.90) is also trending lower, acting as a dynamic resistance level.
The stock is currently trading at 64.50, well below both moving averages, reinforcing the bearish market structure.

Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones (Step 2)

The price is positioned far below both moving averages, indicating significant selling pressure.
Major resistance is at 75.00, aligning with the 20-MA rejection zone.
Support is forming at 64.00 - 60.00, which could act as a short-term stabilization area.
If price continues to break down, the next major support zone is around 58.00 - 60.00.

Power Bars & Retracement Strength (Step 3)

The recent trading sessions show strong red power bars, confirming persistent bearish momentum.
Volume has increased, suggesting active selling pressure rather than a lack of liquidity.
No strong green power bars have emerged yet, meaning buying interest remains weak.

Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies (Step 4)

Short entries remain viable, especially if the stock retests and rejects 70.00 - 75.00.
Long trades should only be considered if price stabilizes and forms a strong bullish pattern above 64.00.

Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments (Step 5)

For shorts, a stop-loss should be placed above 75.00, where a break could signal trend exhaustion.
For longs, a stop-loss at 60.00 ensures protection against further downside risk.

Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation (Step 6)

The last few candles remain red, signaling ongoing bearish momentum.
A color change to green near 64.00 - 60.00 would suggest a potential bottoming formation.

Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets (Step 7)

For shorts, profit-taking should be considered at 60.00 - 58.00, where some buying support might appear.
For longs, an exit near 70.00 - 75.00 would be reasonable given the downtrend resistance zones.

Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks (Step 8)

If price rebounds from 60.00, a secondary long entry could be considered.
A failed breakout at 70.00 could present a short re-entry opportunity.

Tactical Position Management (Step 9)

Short positions should be favored, with sizing adjusted based on retracement strength.
If price bounces with strong volume, scaling into a small long position may be justified.

Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails (Step 10)

A counter-trend long is only valid if the stock reclaims 66.00 with strength.
Otherwise, following the primary downtrend remains the safer strategy.

Conclusion

The January 22, 2025, daily chart of URC reinforces a strong downtrend, with resistance at 75.00 and support at 60.00.

Short positions remain favorable, especially below 70.00.
Long positions require confirmation, preferably with a strong green power bar and volume surge.
Traders should remain cautious and wait for trend confirmation before making directional trades.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Tuesday, January 21, 2025

Evaluating RL Commercial REIT Inc. (RCR): Retracement Strategy as of January 21, 2025

As of January 21, 2025, RL Commercial REIT Inc. (RCR) closed at ₱5.94, which represents the 41% retracement level of a prior downward power move (from ₱6.29 to ₱5.70). Using the Percentage Retracement Trading Strategy, we aim to determine whether this is the right time to buy, sell, or hold.

RL Commercial REIT daily chart showing retracement levels and current price at ₱5.94.

RL Commercial REIT Inc. at 41% retracement after a downward move, January 21, 2025.

Retracement Perspective: Understanding the Power Move

Power Move: The downward movement that originated at ₱6.29 (100% retracement) and ended at ₱5.70 (0% retracement). This marks the start and end of the price decline.
Current Position: The price at ₱5.94 has retraced 41% upward from the low of ₱5.70.
Focus: As a trader focused on buying in upward setups (not shorting), the goal is to find confirmation that the price will reverse upward beyond the 55%-75% retracement zone, with a potential move back to ₱6.29 (100% retracement).

Retracement Levels and Probabilities

Zone 1 (0%-33%) – Shallow Bounce with Weak Recovery Potential (₱5.70-₱5.89)
- Current Price: ₱5.94 (41% retracement level).
- Probability of Upward Continuation: Moderate. The price has rebounded from ₱5.70 but remains below the critical reversal zone (55%-75%). A shallow bounce often lacks the strength needed for a sustained move higher.
- Trading Action: Wait for further confirmation of momentum and strength before adding positions. Entering too early may expose traders to a possible pullback.
Zone 2 (33%-66%) – Deeper Bounce with Improving Reversal Potential (₱5.89-₱6.09)
- This range partly overlaps with the Sweet Spot (55%-75%), which is the optimal reversal zone.
- Probability of Reversal: 60%-90%. If the price enters this zone and shows strong volume and bullish candlestick confirmation, it increases the likelihood of a move back toward ₱6.29 (100% retracement level).
- Trading Action: Consider buying in this zone, especially as the price moves closer to the 55%-75% range. A strong breakout past ₱6.05-₱6.15 strengthens the case for an upward continuation.
Zone 3 (66%-100%) – Strong Bounce Approaching Full Reversal (₱6.09 and Beyond)
- A breakout beyond ₱6.09 would indicate strong bullish momentum, increasing the probability of a full retracement to ₱6.29.
- Trading Action: If the price breaks above ₱6.09 with strength, it reinforces a buy-and-hold strategy until the full retracement is achieved. Traders who entered earlier may add to their positions or hold until the price retests previous highs.

Confirmation Signals to Watch

Before committing to a trade, look for clear bullish confirmation in the ₱6.05-₱6.15 Sweet Spot (55%-75% retracement range):

Volume Surge: A noticeable increase in volume near ₱6.05-₱6.15 signals strong buyer interest.
Bullish Candlestick Patterns: Look for hammers, bullish engulfing, or piercing patterns, indicating a shift in momentum.
Breakout Above ₱6.09: A strong move and close beyond this level confirms upward momentum and increases the probability of a rally toward ₱6.29 (100% retracement level).

If these signals align, it supports a buy-and-hold strategy for potential upside continuation.

Trading Recommendation: Wait for Confirmation

Based on the current price at ₱5.94 (41% retracement), the stock is approaching the critical reversal zone (55%-75%) but has not yet provided sufficient confirmation for a buy decision. Here’s a breakdown of actions:

Buy: Only if the price moves into the 55%-75% retracement zone (₱6.05-₱6.15) with strong bullish confirmation signals.
Hold: If you already own RCR, hold your position while monitoring for signs of a reversal in the 55%-75% range.
Sell: No immediate action to sell, as the stock is in a potential recovery phase.

Conclusion

At ₱5.94, RL Commercial REIT Inc. is at a pivotal retracement point. For traders focused on upward momentum, patience and confirmation are key before entering a position. Monitor price action closely as it approaches the 55%-75% retracement zone, where the probability of a reversal back to ₱6.29 significantly increases. Until then, a hold strategy is advised.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

DDMP REIT Inc. (DDMPR) closed at ₱1.06 on January 21, 2025, with a -2.75% decline from the previous session. The day’s high was ₱1.08, and the low was ₱1.05, aligning closely with key moving averages. Volume stood at 3.022 million, indicating moderate trading interest.

A critical factor in today’s market action is the ex-dividend date of DDMPR. Historically, REITs tend to decline after the ex-date as investors adjust for the dividend payout. Let’s analyze this chart using our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy to assess its potential movement.

DDMP REIT Inc. daily candlestick chart showing the stock's closing price at ₱1.06 on January 21, 2025. The 20-day moving average (₱1.05) and 200-day moving average (₱1.09) are displayed, indicating a test of resistance at the 200-MA before pulling back. Trading volume is at 3.022 million shares.

DDMPR’s January 21, 2025, stock chart showing key technical levels post-ex-dividend.

Step 1: Identifying Market State & Trend Context

200-day MA (₱1.09): The price is still below the long-term moving average, indicating an overall downtrend.
20-day MA (₱1.05): The stock has been consolidating around this short-term support level.
Trend Context: After a prolonged sideways phase, the stock has been attempting a short-term recovery but faces resistance near the 200-day MA.

📌 Conclusion: DDMPR is in an early trend reversal attempt but still struggling to break key resistances.

Step 2: Assessing Price Position Relative to Key Levels

The closing price (₱1.06) is above the 20-day MA (₱1.05) but below the 200-day MA (₱1.09).
A successful break and close above ₱1.09 could confirm a potential reversal.

📌 Conclusion: Caution is needed, as failure to hold above ₱1.05 could signal a pullback.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength

The recent bullish push showed higher-than-average volume, but today’s red candle signals profit-taking.
The current retracement is moderate, suggesting this could be a temporary pullback.

📌 Conclusion: Watch for a green power bar in the next few sessions for confirmation.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Using Technical Alignment

The ideal entry would be near the ₱1.05 support zone with a confirmation signal (e.g., bounce with strong volume).
Breakout Entry: A close above ₱1.09 could confirm bullish momentum.

📌 Conclusion: No clear entry signal yet, but potential setups exist if it holds above ₱1.05.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

A logical stop-loss would be below ₱1.03 (recent swing low).
If it breaks below ₱1.05 decisively, a deeper correction may follow.

📌 Conclusion: Risk management is crucial—tight stops recommended below ₱1.03.

Step 6: Color Change as Secondary Confirmation

The price needs a green candle tomorrow to confirm strength.
If the next session turns red, it may indicate further weakness.

📌 Conclusion: A color change to green at this level would be a bullish signal.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategy

If entered at ₱1.05, potential profit-taking zones:
- Partial Exit at ₱1.10 (above 200-day MA resistance and adjusted for transaction cost)
- Full Exit at ₱1.15 (previous resistance)

📌 Conclusion: Short-term traders may consider scaling out if price struggles at ₱1.10.

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Pullbacks

Best re-entry: If price pulls back near ₱1.03-₱1.05 and holds.
Aggressive traders could attempt a momentum breakout trade if it surges past ₱1.09.

📌 Conclusion: Monitor for re-entry opportunities around ₱1.05.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

Shallow retracement (₱1.05-₱1.06) → Can consider larger positions.
Deeper retracement (₱1.03) → Smaller position with tight stop.

📌 Conclusion: Size positions accordingly based on retracement depth.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations

If the price fails to hold ₱1.05, a counter-trend short may be possible down to ₱1.00.
However, trading against a REIT’s support levels can be risky.

📌 Conclusion: Avoid counter-trend shorts unless a major breakdown occurs.

Trading Plan

Entry: Near ₱1.05 (if it holds)
Stop-Loss: Below ₱1.03
Targets: ₱1.10 (partial), ₱1.15 (full)
Position Allocation: 10,000 shares total (4,000 for Core Position, 6,000 for Tactical Actions)
Transaction Size: Minimum of 2,000 shares per trade
Core Position Entry:

Entry Price: Php 1.05
No. of Shares: 4,000
Gross Amount: Php 4,200.00
Transaction Cost: Php 12.39
Net Amount: Php 4,212.39

Core Position Exit - Breakeven:

Exit Price: Php 1.07
No. of Shares: 4,000.00
Gross Amount: Php 4,280.00
Transaction Cost:
Net Amount: Php 4,241.69
Realized Gain: Php 29.30

Core Position Partial Exit:

Exit Price: Php 1.10
No. of Shares: 2,000.00
Gross Amount: Php 2,200.00
Transaction Cost: Php 19.69
Net Amount: Php 2,180.31
Partial Profit: Php 74.00

Core Position Full Exit:

Exit Price: Php 1.15
No. of Shares: 2,000.00
Gross Amount: Php 2,300.00
Transaction Cost: Php 20.58
Net Amount: Php 2,279.42
Partial Profit: Php 173.00
Total Gain: Php 247.00 (5.87%)

Today’s trading session saw URC closing at 66.00, maintaining its position within the 33% Retracement Continuation Zone—a clear indication that bearish momentum remains strong. Our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy and Percentage Retracement Trading Strategy both suggested that the downtrend was intact, advising traders to sell or hold rather than buy.
URC stock closing analysis for January 21, 2025, marking the end of Phase 1 strategy testing.

Evaluation of URC Closing Chart (January 21, 2025) Using Our Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Step 1: Identifying Market State & Trend Context

The URC closing price of 66.00 remains within the 33% Retracement Continuation Zone, confirming that bearish sentiment is still dominant.
Price remains below both key moving averages (200-MA at 97.79, 20-MA at 75.40), reinforcing a strong downtrend.
Decision: SELL bias remains intact.

Step 2: Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones

Price is hovering below the key support of 67.00 and near the hard stop-loss level of 65.50.
The retracement sweet spots at 67.85 and 68.75 suggest that the stock failed to reclaim these levels, further solidifying bearish strength.
Decision: HOLD / SELL if further weakness persists.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength

The red power bars remain dominant, with today's candle closing lower than the previous day.
Volume remains elevated at 4.363M, suggesting continued selling pressure.
Decision: SELL bias confirmed unless a strong reversal pattern emerges.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation From Both Strategies

There was no confirmed breakout above key resistance, with price struggling near the retracement zones.
Decision: SELL bias holds.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

The hard stop-loss remains at 65.50, and the stock barely stayed above it at closing.
Our earlier full exit at 65.85 was a defensive move to prevent further downside exposure.
Decision: EXIT if price fails to reclaim support levels.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

The absence of a strong green power bar means no clear shift in momentum.
Decision: HOLD until reversal confirmation.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

If shorting, partial profit-taking near 66.00 could be considered as a tactical move.
Decision: PARTIAL SELL recommended.

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

Since 67.00 remains a broken support, re-entry is highly speculative.
Decision: HOLD, as risk remains elevated.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

The 33% Retracement Continuation Zone signals further downside potential.
Decision: HOLD / SELL based on further price movement.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

Given that price is still within the bearish zone, counter-trend trades are risky and premature.
Decision: HOLD / SELL unless a major reversal appears.

Final Trading Recommendation

HOLD / SELL: The bearish trend remains in control, and buyers need confirmation before considering entries.
Monitor retracement levels: If price fails to reclaim 67.00, downside pressure will likely continue.

This concludes Week 4 of testing our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy—and despite a few questionable trades, the strategy has remained effective and reliable in guiding our decisions.

The Questionable Yet Justifiable 50-Share Purchase at 65.95

Despite all signals pointing towards continued bearish momentum, we made a 50-share purchase at 65.95 just after the resumption of afternoon trading—even after fully exiting at 65.85 before the mid-day break.

So, why would we make a move that contradicts both our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy and the Percentage Retracement Trading Strategy?

While the decision lacked technical justification, we can stretch an explanation based on the following perspectives:

Strategic Experimentation with Controlled Risk
- We may have taken the position to test market reaction at a key psychological zone (near 65.50-66.00).
- The trade involved only 50 shares, making it a low-risk probe entry rather than a full commitment.
Emotional Bias and Market Psychology
- Sometimes, market instinct kicks in. A sense of overextension on the downside might have influenced the trade.
- A possible overreaction in price action after the sharp drop could have hinted at a minor bounce attempt.
Reassessing Market Momentum in Real Time
- While our strategies signaled a continuation of the downtrend, intraday market movements sometimes present temporary strength unseen in daily charts.
- A quick position might have been taken to assess price responsiveness at this level.
A Learning Opportunity for Our Trading Strategy
- This move allows us to test the effectiveness of our retracement rules in real time.
- Even flawed decisions contribute to refining our approach for future trades.

Market Recap & URC Trade Evaluation

URC’s Closing Price & Technical Context

Closing Price: 66.00, within the 33% Retracement Continuation Zone—confirming persistent bearish momentum.
Hard Stop-Loss Level: 65.50, which remains a critical risk level.
Resistance Levels: 67.85 and 68.75, which the stock failed to reclaim.
Volume: 4.363M, showing continued selling pressure.

Trade Execution Summary

We fully exited 300 URC shares at 65.85 before the mid-day break to protect our capital.
We later purchased 50 shares at 65.95 after the afternoon session resumed.
- This went against our strategy’s recommendation, as the bearish sentiment remained intact.
- However, the small size of the trade and market conditions made it a calculated risk.
- In hindsight, we acknowledge that strict adherence to our system should have prevailed.

Lessons & Strategy Adjustments

We should have followed our strategy without deviation.
Market instinct must never override structured risk management.
Controlled-risk testing helped refine our approach, but Phase 2 will be fully disciplined.

Transition to Phase 2: Expanding Our Trading Universe

With four weeks of testing behind us, we are confident in the effectiveness of our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy. As we move forward into Phase 2, our focus shifts to applying the strategy across multiple Shariah-compliant stocks with absolute discipline—no deviations, no experimentation.

Phase 2 Trading Parameters

✅ Starting Capital: ₱22,200.00
✅ Stock Holdings: 1,000 RCR shares, 50 URC shares
✅ Current Portfolio Status: -₱1,516.07 loss
✅ Objective: Execute 20 trades following the strategy with precision.
✅ Key Principle: Strict adherence to the system—trade exactly as the strategy dictates.

Final Thoughts

Phase 1 of our testing process has proven our strategy’s reliability, and despite minor missteps, it has provided structured guidance in making disciplined trade decisions. Now, Phase 2 begins, and we are excited to see how our strategy performs across multiple Shariah-compliant stocks.

After 20 fully disciplined trades, we will assess our results and refine our approach as necessary. The next chapter of our trading journey starts now.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

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Pages

Thursday, January 23, 2025

Contents:

Overview: Entering Day 4 of Week 4 in Phase 2 of Our Live Testing

Are We Any Closer to Finding Our First Trade?

Stock Evaluations Using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy

1. URC (Universal Robina Corporation) – Bearish Continuation with No Clear Reversal Yet

Market State & Trend Context (Step 1)

Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones (Step 2)

Power Bars & Retracement Strength (Step 3)

Buy and Sell Signals We Are Looking for Today (January 23, 2025)

Risk Management

2. MONDE (Monde Nissin Corporation) – Signs of Stabilization, but Not Ready for a Long Entry

Market State & Trend Context (Step 1)

Buy and Sell Signals We Are Looking for Today (January 23, 2025)

Risk Management

3. ALLHC (AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp.) – Holding at Support, but Resistance is Strong

Buy and Sell Signals We Are Looking for Today (January 23, 2025)

Risk Management

4. DDMPR (DDMP REIT Inc.) – Attempting to Hold Support, but Lacks Strength

Buy and Sell Signals We Are Looking for Today (January 23, 2025)

Risk Management

5. RCR (RL Commercial REIT Inc.) – Consolidating Near Breakout Levels

Buy and Sell Signals We Are Looking for Today (January 23, 2025)

Risk Management

Final Thoughts – Are We Entering Our First Trade Today?

Key Takeaways for January 23, 2025

Related Posts

Related Readings

Contents:

Overview

Market State & Trend Context (Step 1)

Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones (Step 2)

Power Bars & Retracement Strength (Step 3)

Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies (Step 4)

Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments (Step 5)

Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation (Step 6)

Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets (Step 7)

Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks (Step 8)

Tactical Position Management (Step 9)

Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails (Step 10)

Conclusion

Related Readings

Contents:

Overview

Market State & Trend Context (Step 1)

Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones (Step 2)

Power Bars & Retracement Strength (Step 3)

Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies (Step 4)

Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments (Step 5)

Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation (Step 6)

Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets (Step 7)

Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks (Step 8)

Tactical Position Management (Step 9)

Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails (Step 10)

Conclusion

Related Readings

Contents:

Overview

Market State & Trend Context (Step 1)

Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones (Step 2)

Power Bars & Retracement Strength (Step 3)

Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies (Step 4)

Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments (Step 5)

Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation (Step 6)

Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets (Step 7)

Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks (Step 8)

Tactical Position Management (Step 9)

Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails (Step 10)

Conclusion

Related Readings

Contents:

Overview

Market State & Trend Context (Step 1)

Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones (Step 2)

Power Bars & Retracement Strength (Step 3)

Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies (Step 4)

Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments (Step 5)

Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation (Step 6)

Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets (Step 7)