Hybrid 10-Step Strategy 5.0 – Long-Term Focus Variant
Halal Core Growth Portfolio | Trading Simulation Capital: ₱150,000 | Subok Series
Micro Stock Trader | Ang inyong Batangueñong retail stock trader
Panimula: Seeking Growth with Discipline and Purpose
Balikan natin ang MONDE—isa sa mga matibay na consumer stocks sa PSE. Noong July 16, 2025, nakita natin ang breakout above 8MA at 20MA, kaya nagpasok tayo ng Layer 1 tactical buy sa ₱7.80. Since then, nagbago ang tono ng chart: bumagsak muli sa ilalim ng 8MA at 20MA, at ngayon ay nasa ₱7.15 ang weekly close.Ang tanong: patuloy ba tayong mag-aantabay sa reversal o kailangan bang maghintay muli sa ilalim?
Nilalaman
2️⃣ Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Evaluation
3️⃣ Hatol ng Batangueñong Trader
4️⃣ Next Steps (Tactical Plan)
5️⃣ Updated Layered Accumulation Plan
6️⃣ Updated Phased Exit Plan
7️⃣ Final Trade Recommendation
8️⃣ Closing Reflection
1️⃣ Weekly Chart Snapshot
TRADE DETAILS
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Date: August 15, 2025
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Stock: Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE)
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Exchange: PSE
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Timeframes: Weekly (primary), Daily (supporting)
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Closing Price: ₱7.15
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High: ₱7.26
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Low: ₱7.10
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20-MA (Short-Term): ₱7.37
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50-MA (Mid-Term): ₱8.21
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200-MA (Long-Term): ₱10.77
📊 Observations:
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Price rejected the ₱7.40–₱7.50 zone (near 8MA/20MA).
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Nag-slide ulit papaba, pero hawak pa rin ang ₱7.00 support.
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Volume manipis (10.5M average), walang malakas na akumulasyon signal.
2️⃣ Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Review
Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context
Nasa bottoming stage pa rin, pero failed breakout attempt noong July. Long-term trend bearish pa rin dahil price is way below 200MA.
➡ Verdict: Wait / Test-Buy lang
✅ Score: 7/10
Step 2: Price Position & Long-Term Value Zones
Current price ₱7.15 ay malapit sa 45–55% retracement mula highs. Attractive zone for long-term accumulation.
➡ Verdict: Accumulate on dips
✅ Score: 8/10
Step 3: Power Bars, Price Behavior & Volume Shift
Latest candle weak, red body with no strong volume support. No breakout momentum.
➡ Verdict: Weak bar—observe muna
✅ Score: 6/10
Step 4: Entry Confirmation (Technical & Fundamental)
No new catalysts. Defensive pa rin ang fundamentals, pero technically wala pang bagong breakout.
➡ Verdict: Not yet a strong buy
✅ Score: 6/10
Step 5: Stop-Loss Policy
Our tactical stop at ₱7.20 is now violated intraday but support at ₱7.00 holds. Below ₱7.00 = thesis violation.
➡ Verdict: Maintain ₱7.00 hard stop
✅ Score: 7/10
Step 6: Color Change Signals for Trend Validation
Failed to sustain green candles. Early reversal attempt fizzled.
➡ Verdict: No confirmation yet
✅ Score: 6/10
Step 7: Profit-Taking via Growth Cycles
No profit-taking opportunities yet; still base-building.
➡ Verdict: Hold / wait for next swing
✅ Score: 7/10
Step 8: Re-Entry Plans After Dips
Re-entry zone remains ₱7.00–₱7.20 for next layer. Below ₱7.00 = avoid until new base forms.
➡ Verdict: Wait for dip opportunity
✅ Score: 8/10
Step 9: Position Size Planning
We only activated Layer 1 (₱1,000 test position) = ✅ Good discipline.
➡ Verdict: No overexposure
✅ Score: 10/10
Step 10: Ethical & Counter-Trend Considerations
Still halal, defensive food company. Counter-trend entry okay if controlled.
➡ Verdict: Still qualified
✅ Score: 9/10
🧮 Total Score: 74/100
(Down from 84/100 noong July 16, 2025—nag-deteriorate ang short-term signals.)
3️⃣ Hatol ng Batangueñong Trader
Mga kabayan, parang jeep na akala mong aandar na pero biglang huminto’t naghintay pa ng pasahero—ganun ang MONDE ngayon. May buwelo noong July, pero hindi tinuloy ang breakout. Hindi pa panahon para magdagdag; bantayan muna kung mabubuo ulit ang base.
4️⃣ Next Steps (Tactical Plan)
📌 Entry Price Ranges (Layered Approach):
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₱7.00–₱7.20 → Defensive support buy (Layer 2, 1,200 shares)
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₱7.50 → Retest support entry (Layer 3, 1,200 shares)
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₱8.20–₱8.40 → Breakout confirmation add (Layer 4, 1,500 shares)
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₱8.90 → Sustained breakout scaling (Layer 5, 2,000 shares)
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₱8.00 → Pullback post-breakout opportunity (Layer 6, 2,000 shares)
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₱6.90 → Deep value buy zone (Layer 7, 2,500 shares, optional)
📌 Stop-Loss Level:
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₱7.00 hard stop (structure violation → exit lahat ng hawak, cancel remaining layers)
📌 Target Prices (Profit-Taking):
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₱8.40 → Early trim (20%)
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₱9.20–₱9.40 → Major partial exit (30%)
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₱10.20–₱10.50 → Full exit zone (30%)
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Above ₱11.00 → Optional hold for last 20% if momentum continues
📌 Add/Trim Plan:
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Add tranches per layer as price confirms support or breakout zones
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Trim partials at pre-set resistance targets to lock gains
📌 Position Strategy:
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Gradual build-up across 7 layers, not all-in at once
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Max commitment ≈ ₱117K (~78%) + ₱32K buffer (22%)
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Buffer ensures flexibility kung magka-surprise dip or extra breakout opportunity
5️⃣ Updated Layered Accumulation Plan (₱150,000 Capital Example)
🎯 Goal: gradual, risk-managed buildup habang nasa bottoming stage pa si MONDE. Hatiin ang allocation para may flexibility whether mag-retest ng support o mag-confirm ng breakout.
Layer 1 – Tactical Watchlist Entry (Activated)
🔹 Buy 400 shares @ ₱7.80 (executed) = ₱3,120
🔹 Rationale: Test positioning noong July, confirm na meron tayong foothold
🔹 Allocation: ₱6,000 (4%)
Layer 2 – Defensive Support Entry
🔹 Buy 1,200 shares @ ₱7.00–₱7.20 = ₱8,640–₱8,640
🔹 Rationale: Add conviction kung mag-hold ang ₱7.00 base support
🔹 Allocation: ₱18,000 (12%)
Layer 3 – Retest Support Entry
🔹 Buy 1,200 shares @ ₱7.50 = ₱9,000
🔹 Rationale: Bounce confirmation sa dating resistance turned support
🔹 Allocation: ₱15,000 (10%)
Layer 4 – Breakout Confirmation Entry
🔹 Buy 1,500 shares @ ₱8.20–₱8.40 = ₱12,300–₱12,600
🔹 Rationale: Add on breakout above 20MA with volume
🔹 Allocation: ₱18,000 (12%)
Layer 5 – Sustained Breakout Scaling
🔹 Buy 2,000 shares @ ₱8.90 = ₱17,800
🔹 Rationale: Confirm sustained breakout and trend reversal
🔹 Allocation: ₱20,000 (13.3%)
Layer 6 – Pullback Opportunity Post-Breakout
🔹 Buy 2,000 shares @ ₱8.00 = ₱16,000
🔹 Rationale: Add kung mag-retest pabalik sa breakout zone
🔹 Allocation: ₱16,000 (10.7%)
Layer 7 – Deep Value Buy (Optional)
🔹 Buy 2,500 shares @ ₱6.90 = ₱17,250
🔹 Rationale: Last-chance buying kung mag-dip sa malakas na support zone
🔹 Allocation: ₱17,250 (11.5%)
Remaining Capital Buffer
🔹 ₱32,290 (~21.5%) reserved for flexibility (tactical adds, protection, or unplanned dip)
📌 Total Committed Capital: ₱117,710
📌 Remaining Cash: ₱32,290
6️⃣ Updated Phased Exit Plan (Profit-Taking Strategy)
Target 1 – Partial Exit
🔹 Sell 2,000 shares @ ₱8.40 = ₱16,800
🔹 Rationale: First resistance level (near 20MA), lock partial gains
🔹 % Exit: 20% of holdings
Target 2 – Major Partial Exit
🔹 Sell 3,000 shares @ ₱9.20–₱9.40 = ₱27,600–₱28,200
🔹 Rationale: Major resistance hit, secure bigger profits
🔹 % Exit: 30%
Target 3 – Full Exit Zone
🔹 Sell 3,000 shares @ ₱10.20–₱10.50 = ₱30,600–₱31,500
🔹 Rationale: Strong resistance near 200MA, long-term recovery checkpoint
🔹 % Exit: 30%
Remaining 20% – Optional Long-Term Hold
🔹 Hold ~2,000 shares if momentum sustains above ₱11.00
🔹 Rationale: Ride extended trend or dividends participation
📌 Hard Stop: Exit all positions if ₱7.00 is broken with strong volume
7️⃣ Final Trade Recommendation
Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD / WAIT
✅ Recommendation: Hold existing Layer 1 at ₱7.80, avoid adding unless ₱7.00 holds and a fresh breakout above ₱8.20 confirms.
✅ Risk Management: Hard stop below ₱7.00.
✅ Profit Strategy: Target exits at ₱8.40, ₱9.20, and ₱10.20+ if recovery sustains.
✅ Position Size Strategy: Stay minimal exposure until confirmation; add only if trend reversal validated.
🌱 8️⃣ Closing Reflection
Hindi lahat ng breakout ay tunay na biyaheng diretso—minsan testing lang kung sasama ka agad o marunong kang maghintay. Sa MONDE, patience ang puhunan. Disiplina muna bago dagdag.📌 Trade Simulation Update – Subok sa Puso Series
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Portfolio: Halal Core Growth Portfolio
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Allocation: ₱150,000
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Active Position: 400 shares @ ₱7.80 = ₱3,120 value (currently down ~8%)
Hatol: bantayan ang ₱7.00—kung mabasag, atras muna. Kung mag-hold, may tsansa pa sa rebound.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Paalala lang: Ang post na ito ay para sa informational purposes only at hindi dapat ituring na financial advice. Laging siguraduhing gumawa ng sarili mong research bago pumasok sa kahit anong trade o investment.
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