Nilalaman
1️⃣ Weekly Chart Snapshot
2️⃣ Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Evaluation
3️⃣ Hatol ng Batangueñong Trader
4️⃣ Next Steps (Tactical Plan)
5️⃣ Updated Layered Accumulation Plan
6️⃣ Updated Phased Exit Plan
7️⃣ Final Trade Recommendation
8️⃣ Closing Reflection
Panimula: Conviction Add sa Mismong Linya ng Buhangin
Mga kabayan, noong nakaraang linggo (Aug 30 review), halos basagin ng MONDE ang ₱7.00 support. Pero sa halip na umatras, tinupad natin ang plano: 2,000 shares @ ₱7.04 ang idinagdag — conviction buy sa pinaka-makitid na risk zone.
Ngayon, hawak na natin ang 4,400 shares total = ₱31,456 exposure. Ang tanong: kaya bang depensahan ng merkado ang ₱7.00 sandigan, o may susunod pang pagbagsak sa ₱6.70–₱6.80?
1️⃣ Weekly Chart Snapshot
TRADE DETAILS
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Date: September 1, 2025
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Stock: Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE)
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Exchange: PSE
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Timeframes: Weekly (primary), Daily (supporting)
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Closing Price: ₱7.04
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High: ₱7.17
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Low: ₱7.02
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20-MA: ₱7.38
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50-MA: ₱8.05
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200-MA: ₱10.64
📊 Observations:
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Candle close at ₱7.04, just above critical support.
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All short-term MAs (8, 20, 50) above price — bearish positioning.
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Volume (~1.93M) weak; wala pang strong institutional defense.
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Breakdown danger remains below ₱7.00, possible flush to ₱6.70–₱6.80.
2️⃣ Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Evaluation
Step 1: Market State & Trend Context
Bottoming stage, below 200MA = bearish bias.
➡ Verdict: Cautious HOLD / test-buy zone
✅ Score: 7/10
Step 2: Price Position & Long-Term Value Zones
Price at ₱7.04 = nasa mismong defensive value zone.
➡ Verdict: Accumulate selectively
✅ Score: 7/10
Step 3: Power Bars, Price Behavior & Volume Shift
Small red candle, weak follow-through.
➡ Verdict: Observe
✅ Score: 6/10
Step 4: Entry Confirmation (Tech + Fundamentals)
Support intact pero walang breakout trigger.
➡ Verdict: WAIT for signal
✅ Score: 6/10
Step 5: Stop-Loss Policy
₱6.95–₱7.00 = strict hard stop.
➡ Verdict: Strict
✅ Score: 9/10
Step 6: Color Change Signals for Trend Validation
Wala pang green reversal candle.
➡ Verdict: None
✅ Score: 5/10
Step 7: Profit-Taking via Growth Cycles
Still in base-building stage.
➡ Verdict: HOLD
✅ Score: 6/10
Step 8: Re-Entry Plans After Dips
Layer 2 frontloaded; next add only at ₱7.50 retest.
➡ Verdict: Stick to plan
✅ Score: 8/10
Step 9: Position Size Planning
Current exposure ₱31,456 (~63% of ₱50K). Controlled.
➡ Verdict: Manageable
✅ Score: 8/10
Step 10: Ethical & Counter-Trend Considerations
Halal-qualified consumer staple.
➡ Verdict: Qualified
✅ Score: 9/10
🧮 Total Score: 71/100
(conviction add executed sa tight-risk ₱7.00 zone)
3️⃣ Hatol ng Batangueñong Trader
Parang bangka na sumasayad na sa batuhan si MONDE — pero dito rin tayo nagdagdag ng sakay. Kapag kumapit ang support, mura ang pasok at maliit ang risk. Pero kapag binutas ang ₱7.00, tapos ang biyahe.
4️⃣ Next Steps (Tactical Plan)
📌 Entry Zones
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₱7.05–₱7.25 → Activated (conviction add executed)
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₱7.45–₱7.55 → Pending retest
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₱8.20–₱8.40 → Breakout add
📌 Stop-Loss
₱6.95–₱7.00 hard stop = exit lahat kapag nabutas.
📌 Target Prices
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₱8.30–₱8.50 → early trim (25%)
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₱9.10–₱9.40 → partial exit (30%)
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₱10.20–₱10.50 → major exit (25%)
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Hold 20% core above ₱11.00
📌 Position Strategy
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Exposure: ₱31,456 (~63% of ₱50K).
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No more adds until ₱7.50 retest confirms.
5️⃣ Updated Layered Accumulation Plan (₱50,000 | Location + Conviction)
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Layer 1: ₱7.80 | 400 shares (₱3,120) ✅ Executed
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Condition: Buy only if weekly volume ≥ prior week’s volume.
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Layer 2: ₱7.10–₱7.25 | 2,000 shares (₱14,200) ✅ Executed @ ₱7.04
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Condition: Buy if volume ≥ 50% of 50-MA (~16M).
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Layer 3: ₱7.45–₱7.55 | 600 shares (₱4,500) → Pending
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Condition: Breakout add only if weekly volume ≥ 100% of prior week.
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Layer 4: ₱8.20–₱8.40 | 800 shares (₱6,600) → Pending
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Condition: Confirm breakout if volume ≥ 50% of 50-MA.
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Layer 5: ₱8.80–₱9.00 | 500 shares (₱4,400) → Pending
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Condition: Add cautiously only if breakout sustained with volume ≥ 100% of 50-MA.
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Layer 6: ₱6.95–₱7.05 | 1,000 shares (₱7,000) → Pending
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Condition: Buy only if intraday defense recovers above ₱7.00 and weekly volume > prior week.
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❌ If weekly close < ₱6.95 with strong volume = cut, not buy.
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✅ Total Executed = ₱31,456 (~63%)
💸 Remaining Buffer = ₱18,544 (~37%)
6️⃣ Updated Phased Exit Plan (₱50,000 | Location + Conviction)
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🎯 Exit 1: ₱8.30–₱8.50 → Sell 1,100 shares (25%)
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Condition: Trim if weekly volume tapers <50% of prior week.
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🎯 Exit 2: ₱9.10–₱9.40 → Sell 1,300 shares (30%)
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Condition: Exit if weekly volume ≥ 50% of 50-MA = distribution pressure.
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🎯 Exit 3: ₱10.20–₱10.50 → Sell 1,100 shares (25%)
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Condition: Trim on volume spike ≥ 100% of 50-MA = exhaustion.
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🎯 Exit 4 / Core Hold: Above ₱11.00 → Retain 900 shares (20%)
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Condition: Hold only if weekly volume sustains ≥50% of prior week.
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🔴 Hard Stop: Weekly close below ₱6.95 with strong volume (≥16M) = exit lahat.
7️⃣ Final Trade Recommendation
Final Trade Recommendation: DEFENSIVE BUY / HOLD
✅ Recommendation: Conviction add @ ₱7.04, maintain unless ₱7.50 retest confirms.
✅ Risk Management: Strict stop below ₱7.00 with volume confirmation.
✅ Profit Strategy: Staged exits at ₱8.30–₱10.50, retain 20% above ₱11.00.
✅ Position Size Strategy: Moderate (~63% allocation), add only with confirmation.
8️⃣ Closing Reflection
Sa trading, hindi lakas ng loob ang sukatan kundi tamang timing. Ang dagdag sa ₱7.04 ay disiplina — maliit ang panganib, malapit ang stop. Kapag kumapit, may bunga. Kapag hindi, handa pa rin tayong lumabas nang buo.
📌 Trade Simulation Update #22 – Subok sa Puso Series
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Portfolio: Halal Core Growth Portfolio
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Allocation: ₱50,000
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Active Position: 4,400 shares @ ₱7.15 average = ₱31,456 (~–1.5%)
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Hatol: ₱7.00 support remains the decisive line.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Paalala lang: Ang post na ito ay para sa informational purposes only at hindi dapat ituring na financial advice. Laging siguraduhing gumawa ng sarili mong research bago pumasok sa kahit anong trade o investment
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Walang kondisyon. Walang tanong. Walang habol.
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Rizq—kung tutuusin.
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Hindi lang basta technical setup ang basehan—pinag-isipan din kung saan nanggagaling ang kita, at kung ito ba ay halal ang pinagmulan.
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Hybrid 10-Step Strategy 5.0 – Long-Term Focus VariantOptimized for Accumulation, Patience, and Portfolio Growth
4 na Yugto ng Hybrid 10-Step StrategyKumpletong Trade Cycle ng Isang Board Lot Warrior
Categorized for Halal & Ethical InvestingList of Shariah-Compliant Stocks at PSE (As of December 25, 2024)
Tension-Resilient Stocks Series7 Shariah-Compliant Stocks na Tension-Resilient Kapag Tumitindi ang Init: USA vs Russia Edition
Pang-Bagyo Picks SeriesAlin ang Hindi Natitinag Kapag May Sakuna?
