Sunday, January 26, 2025

MER (Manila Electric Company) Stock Analysis: January 24, 2025

Evaluating MER’s Closing Chart Using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy

Trade Details

Stock: Manila Electric Company (MER)
Market: PSE (Philippine Stock Exchange)
Timeframe: 1-Day (Daily)
Closing Price: ₱486.00 (-1.42%)
Day’s Range: ₱486.00 - ₱494.40
20-MA: ₱484.71 (Short-Term Trend)
200-MA: ₱421.92 (Long-Term Trend)
Volume: 164.98K (SMA 9)

Manila Electric Company (MER) stock chart with moving averages and retracement levels marked for analysis.

MER stock price analysis on January 24, 2025, showing key pullback levels and trend indicators.

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

Trend: MER remains in an uptrend as the price is above both the 20-day moving average (₱484.71) and the 200-day moving average (₱421.92).
Positioning: The price remains in a consolidation phase near the previous resistance of ₱500. However, a pullback from recent highs suggests some short-term selling pressure.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Moving Averages & Key Levels

The price is trading slightly above the 20-MA, indicating that the short-term trend remains intact.
The 50% Sweet Spot Pullback level is ₱476.85, which could serve as a potential support zone.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength

No strong green power bars are present in the latest price action.
The recent red candles indicate a retracement, but the price is still holding above the 20-MA, suggesting a healthy pullback rather than a reversal.

Step 4: Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies

The price is currently near the 25% Sweet Spot Pullback (₱490.18).
If a bullish reversal forms in the next session, it could signal an entry opportunity.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

Stop-loss should be set below the 50% pullback level (₱476.85).
A deeper retracement towards ₱450.20 (100% pullback) would indicate a trend failure.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

A bullish reversal candle (green bar) near the 25%-50% pullback zone would confirm a potential buy signal.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

First target: ₱503.50 (Recent high)
Second target: ₱510+ (Breakout potential)

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

If MER retests the ₱476.85 level and bounces, another entry opportunity may emerge.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

Larger positions can be taken near the 33%-50% retracement zone (₱476-₱490).
If the price falls below ₱450, the trend would likely be invalidated.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

Since MER is in an uptrend, counter-trend trades are not advisable unless a complete trend reversal occurs.

Final Trade Assessment

✅ Bullish Outlook: Despite the pullback, the price remains above key support levels and the short-term moving average.

⚠️ Key Levels to Watch:

Support: ₱484.71 (20-MA), ₱476.85 (50% pullback)
Resistance: ₱503.50 (previous high), ₱510 (breakout level)

📌 Strategy Moving Forward:

Watch for a bullish reversal candle near ₱476-₱490.
Enter with confirmation and set a stop-loss below ₱476.85.
First target: ₱503.50; Second target: ₱510+.

Next Steps

Traders should monitor if MER stabilizes near the 25%-50% pullback zone.
A bounce above ₱490 would confirm the continuation of the uptrend.
A break below ₱476 would indicate further downside risk.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Saturday, January 25, 2025

Evaluating RFM Corporation (PSE) Closing Chart Using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy

Price is at the 20-MA level, which acts as dynamic support.
The 200-MA is far below, reinforcing the bullish long-term trend.
Pullback Zones Identified:
- 0% Pullback: 3.70 PHP
- 50% Bullish Reversal Pullback: 3.87 PHP
- 75% Bullish Reversal Pullback: 3.96 PHP
- 100% Pullback: 4.04 PHP

Step 3: Identify Power Bars & Retracement Strength

The price recently broke out above key resistance levels and is now pulling back.
A mid-range retracement is in progress, aligning with a 50% pullback zone.
No significant bearish power bars yet, suggesting support might hold.

Step 4: Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies

The stock is testing the 20-MA as support.
A reversal signal (e.g., a green candlestick with volume confirmation) at the 50%-75% retracement zone could be an entry trigger.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

Logical Stop-Loss: Below 3.87 PHP (50% pullback).
Aggressive Stop-Loss: Below 3.70 PHP (0% pullback), which invalidates the uptrend.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

If the next candle turns green with a bullish close above the 20-MA, this would strengthen the buying signal.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

Short-term target: 3.96 PHP (75% pullback level)
Medium-term target: 4.04 PHP (previous high, 100% pullback level)

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

If the stock bounces off the 50% retracement (3.87 PHP) and then dips again, a re-entry could be possible.
A break below 3.70 PHP would invalidate the bullish setup.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

Larger position size if the price holds above the 20-MA.
Smaller position size if the price approaches the 50% retracement zone.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

A 100% retracement breakdown (below 3.70 PHP) would suggest a trend failure, triggering a bearish stance.

Final Trade Assessment

Bullish Bias: The uptrend remains intact, as long as the price holds above the 50% pullback level (3.87 PHP) and the 20-MA (3.92 PHP).
Key Level to Watch: A strong green reversal candle at or above 3.87 PHP with volume confirmation.
Trade Plan:
- Entry: If bullish confirmation appears near 3.87 PHP.
- Stop-Loss: Below 3.70 PHP.
- Target: 3.96 PHP (short-term) and 4.04 PHP (full recovery).

Allocation & Deployment Score: 7.8/10 (Effective allocation with potential for further diversification.)
Cash Balance: 39% (Liquidity maintained for flexibility)
Stock Holdings:
- Universal Robina Corporation (URC): 21%
- RL Commercial REIT, Inc. (RCR): 23%
- DDMP REIT Inc. (DDMPR): 10%
- Premiere Island Power REIT Corporation (PREIT): 7%
- Other Stocks (MONDE, ALLHC, ATI): 0%

The allocation reflects our move toward broader diversification among Shariah-compliant stocks and REITs, in line with our Phase 2 objective of testing the strategy across multiple tickers.

3. Phase 2 Trading Parameters & Progress

Trading Execution Score: 8.7/10 (Excellent compliance with entry and exit rules.)
Objective: Execute 20 trades with strict adherence to the strategy.
Key Holdings at Phase 2 Entry:
- URC: 50 shares
- RCR: 1,000 shares
Number of Trades Executed in Phase 2: 4/20 completed

We are sticking to our strategy without deviation, ensuring every trade aligns with our retracement-based entry zones, stop-loss adjustments, and position sizing rules.

4. Market Observations & Next Steps

Market Adaptation & Strategy Adjustment Score: 8.1/10 (Good trade adjustments with minimal impact from market fluctuations.)
Drawdown Management: While early results show a 4.82% realized loss, unrealized losses remain minimal, reinforcing the importance of risk control.
Trade Adjustments:
- URC continues to be a core position, and we will assess further retracements for potential reinforcement.
- RCR remains a high-priority holding due to its technical setup and alignment with the Modified 10-Step Trading Strategy.
- DDMPR and PREIT holdings will be monitored for additional scaling opportunities.
Upcoming Trades: The next batch of trades will further diversify the portfolio, keeping strict adherence to the system’s rules.

5. Final Thoughts: The Road Ahead

Overall Execution & Strategy Adherence Score: 8.4/10 (Steady progression with disciplined execution and adaptability.)

Phase 1 validated our strategy's framework and risk controls, even as minor missteps shaped our adjustments. Now, Phase 2 is fully operational, and the next 16 trades will determine how effectively our strategy performs across different market conditions.

Our focus remains on data-driven execution, ensuring that each trade strictly follows the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy. We will continue monitoring, refining, and adapting while maintaining a disciplined, ethical trading approach.

With 4 of the planned 20 trades completed, we are fully committed to seeing this phase through with precision and discipline. The next update will provide insights into how our strategy performs as we progress through the remainder of Phase 2.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Friday, January 24, 2025

ATI Intra-Day Chart Evaluation – Buy or Sell Decision

Stock: Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI)
Exchange: PSE
Timeframe: Intra-Day (Daily Chart Reference)
Date: January 24, 2025
Closing Price: ₱17.02
High: ₱17.46
Low: ₱16.34
20-MA (Short-Term Trend): ₱16.81
200-MA (Long-Term Trend): ₱18.61
Price Movement: Potential trend reversal with strong volume
Volume: 159.2K, significantly higher than previous sessions

Stock chart of ATI showing price reversal above 20-MA with increased volume and key resistance levels.

ATI Intra-Day Chart Analysis – January 24, 2025

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

ATI has been in a clear downtrend for several months, with price consistently trading below the 20-MA and 200-MA. However, today’s strong green candle, breaking above the 20-MA with high volume, signals a potential trend reversal.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels

Price broke above the 20-MA (₱16.81), suggesting a short-term momentum shift.
The 200-MA (₱18.61) is still above, meaning the long-term trend is bearish.
Resistance levels:
- First resistance: ₱17.50 (recent swing high)
- Major resistance: ₱18.00-₱18.50 (near 200-MA)
Support levels:
- Immediate support: ₱16.80 (20-MA)
- Stronger support: ₱16.30 (recent low)

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength

A strong green power bar suggests high buying pressure.
Volume is significantly higher, confirming potential institutional accumulation.
No major retracement yet, but price holding above ₱16.80 is crucial for further upside.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels

Ideal entry range: ₱16.80-₱17.00, as price recently cleared the 20-MA.
A pullback to ₱16.50-₱16.80 would provide a higher probability entry.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

Stop-loss below ₱16.80 for short-term traders.
A wider stop at ₱16.30 for a more conservative risk approach.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

If price closes above ₱17.00 with another green candle on Monday, it confirms the reversal strength.
A red candle close below ₱16.80 would signal weakness.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

First target: ₱17.50, a key resistance zone.
Second target: ₱18.00, a pre-breakdown level.
Final target: ₱18.60-₱19.00, near the 200-MA resistance.

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

If price retraces to ₱16.80, a second entry for additional shares can be considered.
A retracement to ₱16.50 would offer another buying opportunity.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

Increase position if price clears ₱17.50.
Reduce exposure if price struggles below ₱16.80.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

No counter-trend trade setup, as today’s price action signals an early-stage reversal.

Final Trade Recommendation: BUY

✅ Recommendation: BUY today at ₱16.80-₱17.00, given the breakout above the 20-MA with strong volume.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss below ₱16.80 to protect against downside risk.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Target ₱17.50, ₱18.00, and ₱18.60 for gradual exits.

✅ Position Size Strategy: Start with a moderate position and add if momentum continues above ₱17.50.

Next Steps

📌 Monitor price action at ₱17.50. If the stock breaks and holds above ₱17.50, consider adding exposure.

📌 Watch for weakness below ₱16.80. If the stock fails to hold the breakout, reassess and tighten stop-loss levels.

📌 Look for re-entry opportunities. If price retraces back to ₱16.80 or lower, reassess for a second entry.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Trade No.: 4/20
Date: January 24, 2025
Action: Buy
Entry Type: Momentum Entry
Signal: Previous day’s green bar close and price within the 50%-75% trend reversal zone
Stock: Premiere Island Power REIT Corporation (PREIT)
Shares Bought: 1,000
Entry Price: ₱2.21
Position Size: 1/3 of PREIT test trade allocation

Stock chart of PREIT showing trade entry near 50% pullback sweet spot with moving averages and key levels.

PREIT Trade No. 4 – Post-Trade Analysis Chart

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context - Score: 9/10

PREIT was in consolidation with a slight upward bias, forming a higher low structure near the 50% pullback sweet spot at ₱2.20. The previous day’s green closing bar signaled potential momentum continuation.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels - Score: 10/10

Price was above the 20-MA (₱2.19), indicating short-term bullish momentum.
Price remained well above the 200-MA (₱1.98), confirming long-term stability.
The entry at ₱2.21 was aligned with the 50% pullback sweet spot, providing an optimal risk-reward ratio.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 8/10

The previous day closed with a green power bar, confirming buying strength.
The current session started with stability, maintaining price above the 50% retracement zone.
The absence of immediate selling pressure strengthened the trade conviction.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels - Score: 9/10

Entry at ₱2.21 aligned with the 50% to 75% trend reversal zone, which historically acts as a high-probability area for trend continuation.
Price action confirmed momentum stability at this level, justifying the 1/3 position size.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 9/10

Initial stop-loss placed at ₱2.13 (below 33% retracement), ensuring minimal downside risk.
A more conservative exit trigger would be below ₱2.19, breaking short-term moving average support.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation - Score: 7/10

A red candle close below ₱2.19 would weaken the bullish thesis.
Green candles at ₱2.20 or above would confirm bullish trend continuation.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 9/10

First profit target: ₱2.26 (66% retracement level)
Second profit target: ₱2.30 (75% pullback sweet spot)
A final exit would be considered at ₱2.40, the previous high.

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 8/10

If price retraces back to ₱2.20, a second entry for additional shares could be considered.
A failed breakout above ₱2.26 would trigger profit-taking and re-evaluation.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management - Score: 8/10

If price holds above ₱2.26, an additional position could be added.
If price breaks below ₱2.19, a manual exit would be evaluated.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 10/10

No counter-trend trades were taken, as the uptrend remained intact.

Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 8.8/10

✅ Trade Execution: Well-timed entry within the 50% pullback sweet spot, aligning with trend continuation signals.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss set below ₱2.19, ensuring controlled downside.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Initial target at ₱2.26, scaling out at ₱2.30-₱2.40.

✅ Position Size Strategy: 1/3 of PREIT test allocation, allowing flexibility for future re-entries.

Next Steps

📌 Monitor price action near ₱2.26. If the stock breaks and holds above ₱2.26, consider adding exposure.

📌 Watch for weakness below ₱2.19. If the stock loses momentum, reassess and tighten stop-loss levels.

📌 Look for re-entry opportunities. If price retraces back to ₱2.20 or lower, evaluate a second position.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Stock: Premiere Island Power REIT Corporation (PREIT)
Exchange: PSE
Timeframe: Intra-Day (Daily Chart Reference)
Date: January 24, 2025
Closing Price: ₱2.21
High: ₱2.21
Low: ₱2.21
20-MA (Short-Term Trend): ₱2.19
200-MA (Long-Term Trend): ₱1.98
Key Pullback Levels:
- 100% (Recent High): ₱2.40
- 75% Pullback Sweet Spot: ₱2.30
- 66% Pullback: ₱2.26
- 50% Pullback Sweet Spot: ₱2.20
- 33% Pullback: ₱2.13
- 0% Pullback (Major Support): ₱2.00

A daily stock chart of PREIT showing price near the 50% pullback sweet spot and moving averages.

PREIT Intra-Day Chart Analysis – January 24, 2025

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

PREIT is trading in a sideways consolidation phase, with price fluctuating around the 50% pullback sweet spot (₱2.20). The 20-MA (₱2.19) and 200-MA (₱1.98) suggest a stabilizing trend, but price needs a breakout above ₱2.26 to confirm bullish momentum.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels

Price is above both the 20-MA and 200-MA, signaling bullish bias.
The 50% pullback sweet spot (₱2.20) is being retested, which is a potential buy zone.
The 200-MA (₱1.98) acts as strong long-term support.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength

The breakout above ₱2.20 is forming a green power bar.
Volume is slightly increasing, indicating potential buying pressure.
No major retracement yet, but price needs to hold above ₱2.20 for further upside confirmation.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels

Ideal entry zones: ₱2.20 (50% sweet spot) or ₱2.13 (33% retracement).
Current price is testing ₱2.21, making this a valid momentum entry.
A more conservative entry would be near ₱2.13 if a pullback occurs.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

A stop-loss should be placed below ₱2.13 (33% retracement).
A more aggressive stop would be below ₱2.19 (20-MA support).

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

The transition from red candles to green power bars at ₱2.20 strengthens the bullish case.
If price drops below ₱2.19 and turns red, it could signal trend weakness.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

First profit target: ₱2.26 (66% retracement)
Secondary profit zone: ₱2.30 (75% sweet spot)
Full profit-taking recommended at ₱2.40 (recent high).

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

If price retraces back to ₱2.13-₱2.20, it could offer a secondary entry.
Another opportunity could arise if price breaks ₱2.26 and pulls back for retest.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

Increase position if price holds above ₱2.26.
Reduce exposure if price drops below ₱2.19.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

No counter-trend trades advisable unless price drops back to ₱2.00 (0% retracement).

Final Trade Assessment

PREIT is testing the 50% pullback sweet spot at ₱2.20, making it an interesting level for a breakout play.
A confirmation above ₱2.26 strengthens the bullish case.
Profit-taking should be planned around ₱2.26-₱2.40.
Ideal re-entry zones lie around ₱2.13-₱2.20.

Next Steps

Monitor if price holds above ₱2.20 for a potential long entry.
If price breaks ₱2.26 with strong volume, add to positions.
Watch for pullbacks near the 20-MA (₱2.19) for better risk management.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

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Pages

Sunday, January 26, 2025

Contents:

Evaluating MER’s Closing Chart Using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy

Trade Details

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Moving Averages & Key Levels

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength

Step 4: Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

Final Trade Assessment

Next Steps

Related Readings

Saturday, January 25, 2025

Contents:

Trade Details

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to MAs & Key Levels

Step 3: Identify Power Bars & Retracement Strength

Step 4: Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

Final Trade Assessment

Contents:

Phase 2 of Strategy Testing: Strict Execution Begins

1. Portfolio Performance

2. Portfolio Allocation & Capital Deployment

3. Phase 2 Trading Parameters & Progress

4. Market Observations & Next Steps

5. Final Thoughts: The Road Ahead

Related Readings

Friday, January 24, 2025

Contents:

Trade Details

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

Final Trade Recommendation: BUY

Next Steps

Related Readings

Contents:

Trade Details

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context - Score: 9/10

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels - Score: 10/10

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 8/10

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels - Score: 9/10

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 9/10

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation - Score: 7/10

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 9/10

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 8/10

Step 9: Tactical Position Management - Score: 8/10

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 10/10

Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 8.8/10

Next Steps

Related Readings

Contents:

Trade Details

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context