From breakout setup to long-term opportunity: Why ABA is entering the early stages of a potential wealth-building cycle for patient investors.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
- Final Stock Recommendation
- Next Steps
Introduction
In our earlier post dated June 4, 2025, we examined AbaCore Capital Holdings, Inc. (ABA) as a breakout candidate from a short-term tactical trade perspective, identifying a valid range entry at ₱0.75–₱0.79 based on a confluence of signals from the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Since then, price action has continued to align with our expected breakout path—providing us the opportunity to shift gears and now evaluate ABA from a long-term investment viewpoint.
This follow-up review focuses on the weekly timeframe as of June 9, 2025, in line with our enhanced Hybrid 10-Step Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant, which prioritizes accumulation, trend development, and position scaling rather than fast rotations or immediate exits.
TRADE DETAILS:
Date: June 9, 2025
Stock: AbaCore Capital Holdings, Inc. (ABA)
Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
Timeframe: Weekly
Closing Price: ₱0.77
High: ₱0.79
Low: ₱0.75
20-MA (Short-Term Trend): ₱0.51
200-MA (Long-Term Trend): ₱1.32
This updated review explores whether ABA now qualifies as a gradual accumulation candidate for long-term investors who prefer structured position-building over speculative swing entries.
Weekly chart of ABA showing breakout and reversal base as of June 9, 2025
Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
(Adapted for Long-Term Focus)
Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context
The long-term trend remains bearish, with price well below the 200-week MA (₱1.32). However, short-term structure is now bullish, supported by a breakout above the 20-week MA (₱0.51) and sustained upward momentum over the past 5 weeks.
➡ Verdict: Long-term downtrend with short-term bullish structure. Early reversal.
Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones
ABA is positively positioned above all short-term MAs (8, 20, and 50-week). The latest price action has moved outside the ideal 25%–45% sweet spot for trend-continuation pullbacks, suggesting a need to wait for dips or scale in slowly.
➡ Verdict: Hold for long-term, layer in during soft pullbacks.
Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation
A clear green power candle emerged during the week of May 27, 2025, with volume expansion to 15.788M shares—the strongest in recent quarters. This is a valid breakout signal in the context of a long-term base.
➡ Verdict: Bullish; confirms early accumulation by institutions.
Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals
Price has broken above critical resistance at ₱0.60 and is approaching the next threshold of ₱0.80. Sustaining above ₱0.80 would validate a long-term trend reversal.
➡ Verdict: Accumulation near ₱0.75 is valid; full conviction entry at ₱0.80+
Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management
For long-term positions, a strategic stop-loss may be placed below ₱0.62 (swing low) or ₱0.51 (weekly 20-MA). Position size should reflect the volatility and low float nature of the stock.
➡ Verdict: Position sizing and stop discipline critical below ₱0.62
Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation
The weekly chart has fully transitioned from red to green bars, marking a sentiment reversal that aligns with our long-term entry thesis.
➡ Verdict: Valid trend reversal under development.
Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits
Profit zones should target long-term resistance levels:
-
First Tier: ₱0.90 (previous minor resistance)
-
Second Tier: ₱1.00
-
Final Tier: ₱1.20–₱1.30 near 200-week MA
➡ Verdict: Set tiered take-profit plan and trail gains beyond ₱0.90
Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones
Re-entries can be planned at:
-
₱0.67–₱0.70: Minor support at 50-MA
-
₱0.51–₱0.55: Stronger support at 20-MA for major pullback
➡ Verdict: Re-enter only on pullbacks with low-volume corrections.
Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments
We recommend initiating with a 50% core position near ₱0.75–₱0.77, and adding remaining 50% only after a solid weekly close above ₱0.80.
➡ Verdict: Use layered core-tactical scaling strategy.
Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations
Not applicable in current conditions. ABA has exited the deep bear zone and is forming a base for long-term recovery.
➡ Verdict: No counter-trend trade needed. Focus on core buildup.
Final Stock Recommendation
Final Stock Recommendation: BUY for Long-Term Accumulation
✅ Recommendation: Begin phased accumulation at ₱0.75–₱0.77, based on volume confirmation and price leadership over short-term MAs.
✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss below ₱0.62 or ₱0.51 depending on investor tolerance.
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Gradual exits near ₱0.90, ₱1.00, and ₱1.30.
✅ Position Size Strategy: Moderate-sized initial entry (50%) with add-on above ₱0.80 for conviction-based layering.
Next Steps
🔹 Short-term traders → Consider partial profit at ₱0.79–₱0.85 if quick bounce occurs.
🔹 Long-term investors → Begin core position and monitor for breakout confirmation above ₱0.80.
🔹 Existing holders → Hold positions and tighten stop to ₱0.64 if breakout stalls.
Layered Accumulation Plan for ABA (Php10,000 Capital)
As part of our long-term positioning for AbaCore Capital Holdings, Inc. (ABA), we are implementing a layered accumulation plan designed to optimize entry across pullback zones and breakout confirmations. With an initial capital of Php10,000.00, we have already deployed Php4,800.00 on June 3, 2025, buying 6,000 shares at ₱0.80 for our core position (48%).
Inside the Micro Stock Trader virtual office, the ambiance reflects focused strategy—highlighting the Layered Accumulation Plan for ABA alongside a visual of the Wealth-Building Cycle designed to guide long-term investors.
Assumptions:
🔹 Total Capital: Php10,000.00
🔹 Core Position (Executed): 6,000 shares @ ₱0.80 = Php4,800.00
🔹 Remaining Capital: Php5,200.00
Layer 2 – Tactical Pullback Entry
-
Buy 2,000 shares @ ₱0.70
-
Capital Allocation: Php1,400.00
-
Rationale: Add tactically on retracement near short-term MA support
Layer 3 – Deep Pullback Entry (Defensive Zone)
-
Buy 1,000 shares @ ₱0.65 (GTC order already placed)
-
Capital Allocation: Php650.00
-
Rationale: Capitalize on deeper retracement near breakout base
Layer 4 – Breakout Momentum Add-On
-
Buy 2,000 shares @ ₱0.85
-
Capital Allocation: Php1,700.00
-
Rationale: Add on confirmation of trend reversal if price breaks ₱0.80+ on volume
Contingency Reserve
-
Unallocated Buffer: Php1,450.00
-
Purpose: Reserved for averaging or emergency re-entry if price volatility increases
This plan maintains capital discipline, ensures low average cost, and allows us to scale into ABA's potential recovery while minimizing risk during volatility.
🚨 Final Thought: The breakout thesis from early June is playing out. With volume and moving average alignment on our side, ABA may be shifting into a new bullish cycle. Early accumulation could reward patient holders in the months ahead. 🚨
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
