Tuesday, February 11, 2025

Stock Price Review: Manila Electric Co. (MER) Daily Chart as of February 11, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Stock Recommendation
  • Next Steps

Introduction

Manila Electric Co. (MER), a key player in the Philippine power sector, is actively traded on the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE). As of February 11, 2025, we analyze the stock using our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 3.0 to determine whether MER presents a buy, sell, or hold opportunity based on its technical setup.

TRADE DETAILS

  • Date: February 11, 2025
  • Stock: Manila Electric Co. (MER)
  • Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
  • Timeframe: Daily
  • Pullback Under Consideration:
    • Start of Power Move Date: January 22, 2025
    • Start of Power Move (100% Pullback): ₱503.50
    • End of Power Move Date: January 31, 2025
    • End of Power Move (0% Pullback): ₱448.00
    • Power Move Trend: Bearish
    • Power Move Sweet Spot: ₱478.53 - ₱489.63
    • Pullback Level To Date: 72%
  • Volume Analysis as of February 11, 2025:
    • Closing Volume: 103.66K
    • 65-day volume average: 228.03K
    • 30-day volume average: 220.94K
    • Target Breakout Volume (65-day x 1.8 volume average): 410K

This stock price review follows our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 3.0 for a structured and data-driven assessment.

MER Stock price chart from the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) showing moving averages, volume analysis, and market trends for technical evaluation as of February 11, 2025.

MER Stock price chart displaying key technical indicators, including moving averages, volume trends, and price action patterns as of February 11, 2025.


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

  • The 20-MA (₱481.38) is above the 200-MA (₱428.53), confirming an uptrend.
  • The current price (₱485.00) is above both moving averages, maintaining a bullish market structure.
  • Verdict: BUY

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones

  • The stock retraced from ₱503.50 to ₱448.00, indicating a strong pullback of 72%, entering a critical retracement zone.
  • The ideal buy zone is ₱478.53 - ₱489.63, where price is currently trading.
  • Verdict: BUY (Within the Power Move Sweet Spot)

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation

  • The lack of power bars and low volume suggest that MER is consolidating.
  • Volume is weak (103.66K), failing to meet the breakout requirement of 410K.
  • Verdict: WAIT for volume confirmation before entering aggressively.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals

  • No strong breakout signal yet.
  • A break above ₱490.00 with volume above 410K would confirm an upward continuation.
  • Verdict: BUY with caution; wait for stronger confirmation.

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management

  • Ideal stop-loss: Below ₱470.00 (recent support).
  • Aggressive stop-loss: Below ₱460.00 (deep retracement level).
  • Verdict: BUY only with a defined stop-loss below ₱470.00.

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation

  • No major color change signals.
  • Price is consolidating, and momentum needs to shift.
  • Verdict: WAIT for a bullish confirmation candle.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits

  • First target: ₱490.00 (previous resistance).
  • Second target: ₱500.00 (psychological resistance).
  • Third target: ₱510.00 (new highs).
  • Verdict: BUY with targets at ₱490.00-₱510.00.

Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones

  • First re-entry zone: ₱470.00 (50% retracement level).
  • Second re-entry zone: ₱460.00 (deep pullback).
  • Verdict: HOLD until re-entry at ₱470.00 or ₱460.00.

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments (Position Sizing Strategy)

  • Core Position: 50% entry size at ₱478.00-₱485.00.
  • Tactical Position: Add 10% if price breaks ₱490.00 with volume.
  • Verdict: BUY with controlled position sizing.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations

  • Not applicable as the stock is in an uptrend.
  • Verdict: No counter-trend trading required.

Final Stock Recommendation

Final Trade Recommendation: BUY (With Confirmation)

✅ Recommendation: Buy near ₱478.53 - ₱485.00 while within the Power Move Sweet Spot.
✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss below ₱470.00 to protect against downside risk.
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Target ₱490.00, ₱500.00, and ₱510.00 for gradual exits.
✅ Position Size Strategy: Start with a moderate position and add on breakout above ₱490.00 with volume.

Next Steps

🔹 Short-term traders → Wait for volume breakout above ₱490.00 before adding more shares.
🔹 Long-term investors → Buy within the sweet spot (₱478.53 - ₱489.63) for a strong risk-reward setup.
🔹 Existing holders → Hold with targets at ₱490.00, ₱500.00, and ₱510.00.
🚨 Final Thought: The pullback has reached 72%, making it an attractive buy if volume strengthens. Wait for confirmation. 🚨


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Friday, February 7, 2025

Strategy for Those Accumulating MER Inside the 460–500 Consolidation Range & Why We Are Not Following It

Key Highlights of the Post:

🔹 Why some traders buy inside consolidation ranges.

🔹 The risks of accumulating before a confirmed breakout.

🔹 Why we follow a breakout strategy—waiting for price confirmation.

🔹 How to decide which strategy best suits your trading approach.

When a stock remains in a tight consolidation range, some traders and investors choose to accumulate shares at support levels in anticipation of a future breakout. In the case of Manila Electric Company (MER), the stock has been trading between 460 and 500 for months, leading some market participants to buy near the lower range (460–470) and sell near resistance (490–500).

While this range trading strategy can be effective for certain traders, we strictly follow a breakout trading approach, meaning we do not enter a position until MER decisively breaks above 500 with volume confirmation. In this post, we’ll discuss:

🔹 Why some traders prefer accumulating inside the range.
🔹 The risks of entering too early before a confirmed breakout.
🔹 Why we wait for a breakout before committing capital.

By understanding the differences between range accumulation vs. breakout trading, traders can better align their strategy with their risk tolerance and market approach.

Ambiance at the Micro Stock Trader place, highlighting the comparison between "Breakout Trading" and "Accumulation Inside the Range

Accumulation vs. Breakout Strategy – What’s the Best Approach for Micro Stock Trader BETA Portfolio


1. The Accumulation Strategy Inside the Range

Some traders and investors choose to accumulate shares while the stock is still trading within a consolidation range (460–500 for MER). This approach is commonly referred to as:

✅ Range Trading (Buying Near Support & Selling Near Resistance)

  • Traders buy at the lower boundary (460–470) and sell near the upper boundary (490–500).
  • This strategy works if the stock remains inside the range for an extended period.
  • Key Risk: If a stock breaks down below the lower range (460), range traders may get trapped in losing positions.

✅ Accumulation Before Breakout

  • Some investors accumulate shares in anticipation of a breakout, assuming institutional buying is happening inside the range.
  • These investors typically have a longer-term horizon and are willing to hold through volatility.

2. Why We Are Not Following This Accumulation Strategy

We are strictly following a Breakout Trading Strategy, meaning:

❌ No Entry Until a Confirmed Breakout

  • Price must clear 500 with volume confirmation before entry.
  • Buying inside the range means taking on risk without confirmation, which goes against the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy.

❌ Avoiding False Signals & Range-Bound Movements

  • MER has failed multiple times to break 500, meaning buyers inside the range may face extended holding periods or capital stagnation.
  • We prioritize momentum trades, where we enter only when strong demand pushes price into a new uptrend.

❌ Risk Management & Efficiency

  • Buying inside the range requires setting a stop-loss below 460, which increases the risk of getting stopped out.
  • Our breakout approach minimizes unnecessary trades, ensuring we deploy capital efficiently only when a high-probability breakout occurs.

Final Takeaway: Breakout Trading vs. Accumulation Inside the Range

📌 Breakout Traders (Our Strategy) → Wait for price to break 500 with strong volume.

📌 Range Traders → Accumulate near 460–470 and sell at 490–500.

We avoid buying inside the range because we are not speculating on accumulation—we are waiting for confirmation of a strong move above 500 to enter with momentum and reduced downside risk. 🚀

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Stock Price Review: Manila Electric Company (MER) Daily Chart as of February 6, 2025 – Is a Breakout Forming?

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Technical Analysis: Price and Trend Overview
  • Volume Analysis: Institutional Interest or Just Noise?
  • Breakout Trading Strategy: What Really Matters?
  • Trading Recommendations Based on the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy
  • Final Thoughts

Introduction

Manila Electric Company (MER) closed at 488.60 on February 6, 2025, gaining +3.60 (+0.74%) for the day. While MER has been consolidating within the 460–500 range since December 2024, a recent increase in volume raises questions about whether a breakout is forming. This review will assess MER’s price action, volume trends, and breakout potential using our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy.

A stock chart of Manila Electric Company (MER) showing technical indicators, price action, and moving averages.

MER Daily Chart Analysis – February 6, 2025

Technical Analysis: Price and Trend Overview

1. Current Price Action

  • MER closed at 488.60, up +0.74% for the day.
  • The short-term trend (20-MA at 481.15) is acting as immediate support.
  • The long-term trend (200-MA at 426.54) remains significantly lower, confirming a strong uptrend in the bigger picture.

2. Key Resistance and Consolidation

  • MER has been ranging between 460–500 since December 2024.
  • 500 remains the key breakout level, while 475–480 serves as near-term support.
  • Despite a recent rebound from lows, the price remains within the consolidation zone, meaning no confirmed breakout has occurred yet.

Volume Analysis: Institutional Interest or Just Noise?

Recent Volume Comparison

  • Closing Volume on February 6, 2025: 0.32M
  • 65-Day Volume Average (+20%) as of February 5, 2025: 0.27M
  • 30-Day Volume Average (+20%) as of February 5, 2025: 0.26M

The 0.32M volume is above historical averages, suggesting increased trading activity. However, higher volume alone does not confirm a breakout—price action must also validate the move.

Breakout Trading Strategy: What Really Matters?

A breakout strategy prioritizes price first, with volume acting as confirmation. Here’s how to analyze MER’s current setup:

  1. Breakout Occurs Only When Price Clears 500

    • Price must decisively break above 500 to confirm a bullish breakout.
    • Until then, MER is still inside the 460–500 consolidation range.

  2. Volume Confirms the Move

    • Ideal breakout volume should exceed 0.40M, significantly higher than today’s 0.32M.
    • If volume is low during a price breakout, it could be a false breakout, meaning the price could quickly reverse back inside the range.

  3. No Entry if Price is Not in the Sweet Spot

    • Even with higher volume, if the price is still below 500, the breakout is not valid.
    • Decision: WAIT for the price to break above 500 before considering an entry.

Trading Recommendations Based on the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

🔹 Short-Term Traders (Swing & Momentum)

  • Wait for a confirmed breakout above 500 before entering.
  • If MER tests 490–500 with volume exceeding 0.35M, a breakout is more likely.
  • Support at 480–475 should hold; a breakdown below 475 could signal weakness.
  • Stop-loss at 475 for any short-term buy trades.

🔹 Long-Term Investors

  • MER is above both the 20-MA and 200-MA, confirming a long-term uptrend.
  • Best accumulation zone: 460–470, where price has found support multiple times.
  • Holding is recommended unless the stock breaks below 450, which could indicate a deeper correction.

🔹 Existing Holders

  • No immediate exit needed, but if volume weakens and MER fails to break 500, expect continued consolidation.
  • Consider partial profit-taking at 500–510, as this level has acted as resistance.
  • Use a trailing stop at 475–470 to protect gains.

Final Thoughts

MER is currently in a consolidation phase between 460 and 500, with a potential breakout forming. The increase in volume is encouraging, but price confirmation is still required before entering new positions.

🚨 Final Takeaway: Wait for MER to break 500 with volume exceeding 0.40M before confirming a breakout. No entry until price is in the sweet spot! 🚀


NOTES ON OUR BREAKOUT TRADING STRATEGY

How We Arrived at the 0.40M Volume Recommendation for MER’s Breakout Confirmation

The 0.40M volume threshold for confirming a breakout above 500.00 in MER was determined based on historical volume trends, breakout theory, and institutional activity requirements. Below is a breakdown of how we arrived at this figure.

1. Historical Volume Analysis

Volume Data as of February 6, 2025:

  • Closing Volume: 0.32M
  • 65-Day Volume Average (+20%): 0.27M
  • 30-Day Volume Average (+20%): 0.26M

💡 Interpretation:

  • The 0.32M volume on February 6, 2025, was above both the 30-day and 65-day volume averages, indicating increased trading activity.
  • However, it was not enough to push the price beyond the 500 resistance level, meaning more volume is needed for a confirmed breakout.

2. Breakout Volume Rule of Thumb

A valid breakout should have at least 1.5x to 2x the stock’s average volume, ensuring that the price movement is backed by strong institutional participation and not just retail trading.

🔹 Applying This to MER:

  • 65-Day Adjusted Average Volume: 0.27M
  • Target Volume for Breakout Confirmation:
    • 1.5x of 0.27M → 0.40M
    • 2.0x of 0.27M → 0.54M

Since MER is consolidating within 460–500 and has attempted to break out multiple times without success, the minimum volume threshold for a breakout should be 1.5x the adjusted 65-day average, which equates to 0.40M.

3. Institutional Accumulation Requirement

  • For large-cap stocks like MER, institutions (fund managers, investment firms, and big traders) tend to build positions gradually.
  • A sustained volume surge above 0.40M would indicate strong institutional interest, reinforcing that the breakout is not a false move.

4. Previous Failed Breakout Attempts

  • If past breakout attempts at 500 occurred with volume lower than 0.40M and failed, it confirms that higher volume is needed to sustain a move above 500.
  • MER’s previous range-bound trading suggests that resistance remains strong, requiring significantly higher participation to break through.

Conclusion: Why 0.40M is the Key Breakout Volume Threshold

  • It is 1.5x the 65-day volume average, aligning with breakout theory.
  • It is higher than previous failed breakout volumes, indicating institutional confirmation.
  • It ensures MER’s breakout above 500 is sustainable, avoiding false breakouts.

🚨 Final Takeaway: A breakout above 500 will require volume exceeding 0.40M to be considered valid. If volume remains below this level, the breakout is at risk of failing. 🚀

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Wednesday, February 5, 2025

MONDE Trade Evaluation: Trade No. 5/20 – Phase 2 Live Testing Review & Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Performance (Feb 5, 2025)

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

Trade Details

  • Trade No.: 5/20
  • Date: February 5, 2025
  • Action: Buy
  • Entry Type: Momentum Entry from Early Reversal Attempt
  • Signal: Breakout Above Recent Support with Strong Green Bar
  • Stock: Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE)
  • Shares Bought: Last 500 out of 1200 shares allocated (completing full position)
  • Entry Price: ₱7.79
  • Position Size: Full allocation completed

📌 Chart Overview:

  • Daily Chart: MONDE posted a strong +8.06% gain, closing at ₱7.78 with a volume surge of 13.978M shares, showing renewed interest and an early reversal signal.
  • The price is now above ₱7.50 and approaching the 20-MA (₱7.28), a critical short-term resistance level.
  • The 200-MA (₱9.67) remains well above, indicating that MONDE is still in a longer-term downtrend.
  • Monthly Chart: The price action shows a potential bottoming attempt, with MONDE bouncing from multi-year lows. However, the 20-MA (₱9.12) remains a key resistance level.
MONDE stock price monthly chart analysis for live testing under Hybrid 10-Step Strategy as of February 5, 2025.

MONDE Trade No. 5/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Monthly Chart

MONDE stock price daily chart analysis for live testing under Hybrid 10-Step Strategy as of February 5, 2025.

MONDE Trade No. 5/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Daily Chart

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

(Each step scored out of 10 based on trade alignment with strategy.)

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context - Score: 7/10

  • MONDE is in a long-term downtrend but has shown strong signs of a short-term bottom.
  • A recovery attempt is underway, but confirmation is needed above ₱8.00-₱8.50.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels - Score: 8/10

  • Price is now trading slightly above key support levels but remains under major resistance zones (₱8.50-₱9.00).
  • Break above ₱8.00 would confirm a short-term bullish structure.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 9/10

  • Strong green candle with increasing volume confirms buying pressure.
  • A close above ₱7.80 signals continuation potential.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels - Score: 8/10

  • Entry aligns with a bullish move past recent support.
  • A break above ₱8.00-₱8.50 would further validate bullish momentum.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 9/10

  • Stop-loss set below ₱7.50 ensures controlled downside risk.
  • A deeper pullback below ₱7.30 would invalidate the trade setup.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation - Score: 8/10

  • Bullish price action with strong volume confirms upward momentum.
  • Needs continuation above ₱8.00 for stronger validation.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 9/10

  • First target: ₱8.50 (next major resistance).
  • Final target: ₱9.50-₱10.00 (longer-term retracement zone).

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 7/10

  • A pullback to ₱7.60-₱7.70 could offer another entry opportunity.
  • Breakout above ₱8.00-₱8.50 justifies adding more exposure.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management - Score: 8/10

  • Full allocation deployed, limiting further scaling.
  • Risk management is crucial near resistance levels.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 7/10

  • Not a counter-trend trade, but caution is needed near ₱8.50 resistance.
  • Failure to hold ₱7.50 could lead to further downside.

📌 Overall Strategy Score: 80/100

📌 Summary: Trade was well-executed based on momentum confirmation, but resistance near ₱8.50 must be monitored.

Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 8.0/10

✅ Trade Execution: Entry positioned at a breakout level, aligning with short-term trend reversal.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss at ₱7.50 ensures controlled downside risk.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: First target at ₱8.50, scaling out at ₱9.50-₱10.00.

✅ Position Size Strategy: Full allocation, requiring strict risk management.

Next Steps

📌 Monitor price action near ₱8.00-₱8.50. If MONDE holds this level, consider holding the position for further gains.

📌 Watch for weakness below ₱7.50. If momentum weakens, reassess the trade and adjust stop-loss accordingly.

📌 Look for re-entry opportunities. If MONDE retests ₱7.60 and holds, consider adding more exposure in future setups.

🚨 Conclusion: Trade No. 5 remains strong, with a bullish outlook. A move above ₱8.50 would confirm further upside, while a break below ₱7.50 would require caution. 🚨

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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URC Trade Evaluation: Trade No. 5/20 – Phase 2 Live Testing Review & Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Performance (Feb 5, 2025)

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

Trade Details

  • Trade No.: 5/20
  • Date: February 5, 2025
  • Action: Buy
  • Entry Type: Short-Term Reversal Attempt at Multi-Year Lows (Monthly Chart)
  • Signal: Strong bullish momentum with increasing volume
  • Stock: Universal Robina Corporation (URC)
  • Shares Bought: Last 20 out of 70 shares allocated (completing full position)
  • Entry Price: ₱61.65
  • Position Size: Full allocation completed

📌 Chart Overview:

  • Daily Chart: URC posted a strong green candle, closing at ₱61.65 (+6.38%), showing initial recovery from oversold conditions.
  • Volume surged to 3.506M, confirming renewed interest in the stock.
  • The 20-MA (₱68.15) remains above, serving as the first resistance level.
  • The 200-MA (₱95.74) remains significantly above, indicating the long-term trend is still bearish.
  • Monthly Chart: URC is at a multi-year low, indicating potential mean reversion if a sustained rally occurs.

URC stock price monthly chart analysis for live testing under Hybrid 10-Step Strategy as of February 5, 2025.

URC Trade No. 5/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Monthly Chart

URC stock price monthly chart analysis for live testing under Hybrid 10-Step Strategy as of February 5, 2025.

URC Trade No. 5/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Daily Chart

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

(Each step scored out of 10 based on trade alignment with strategy.)

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context - Score: 7/10

  • URC is in a long-term downtrend but has shown a strong daily recovery.
  • First signs of reversal appear, but confirmation is needed above ₱65.00-₱68.00.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels - Score: 7/10

  • Price is still below both the 20-MA (₱68.15) and 200-MA (₱95.74), meaning bearish pressure persists.
  • Entry near ₱61.65 aligns with short-term retracement potential, but resistance remains overhead.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 9/10

  • Strong green candle on high volume suggests a potential shift in momentum.
  • If price can hold above ₱60.00, a higher low structure may form.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels - Score: 8/10

  • Entry at ₱61.65 aligns with the daily green candle confirmation.
  • A break above ₱65.00-₱68.00 would confirm a bullish continuation.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 9/10

  • Stop-loss set below ₱58.50 ensures controlled downside risk.
  • A breakdown below ₱57.50 would invalidate the trade setup.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation - Score: 8/10

  • Bullish price action with strong volume confirms upward momentum.
  • Needs continuation above ₱63.00-₱65.00 to further confirm.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 9/10

  • First target: ₱68.00 (20-MA resistance).
  • Final target: ₱75.00-₱80.00 (next major resistance zone).

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 7/10

  • A pullback to ₱60.50-₱61.00 could offer another entry.
  • Breakout above ₱65.00 justifies scaling further into the position.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management - Score: 8/10

  • Full allocation deployed, limiting further scaling.
  • Risk management is crucial near resistance levels.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 7/10

  • Not a counter-trend trade, but caution is needed near ₱68.00 resistance.
  • Failure to hold ₱60.00 could lead to further downside.

📌 Overall Strategy Score: 79/100

📌 Summary: Trade was well-executed based on momentum confirmation, but resistance near ₱68.00 must be monitored.

Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 7.9/10

✅ Trade Execution: Entry positioned at a breakout level, aligning with short-term trend reversal.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss at ₱58.50 ensures controlled downside risk.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: First target at ₱68.00, scaling out at ₱75.00-₱80.00.

✅ Position Size Strategy: Full allocation, requiring strict risk management.

Next Steps

📌 Monitor price action near ₱65.00-₱68.00. If URC holds this level, consider holding the position for further gains.

📌 Watch for weakness below ₱60.00. If momentum weakens, reassess the trade and adjust stop-loss accordingly.

📌 Look for re-entry opportunities. If URC retests ₱60.50 and holds, consider adding more exposure in future setups.

🚨 Conclusion: Trade No. 5 remains strong, with a bullish outlook. A move above ₱68.00 would confirm further upside, while a break below ₱60.00 would require caution. 🚨

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Summary of the Chronological Evolution of Our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy (January 16, 2025 – February 2025)

Contents:

  • Phase 1: Initial Testing of the Strategy
  • Phase 2: Expanding to Multiple Stocks
  • Major Refinements
  • How These Refinements Prepared Us
  • Recommendations for February 2025
  • Conclusion

Since January 16, 2025, our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy has undergone significant refinements based on live testing through our Budget Ethical Trading Account (BETA). Initially, we focused on single-stock execution using daily charts, but as our understanding deepened, we expanded the approach to multiple stocks and incorporated monthly charts for broader trend confirmation.

Chart depicting the evolution of the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy with key trading adjustments and portfolio refinements

 Evolution of Our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy – Key Refinements and Live Trading Insights


Phase 1: Initial Testing of the Strategy (January 16 – January 21, 2025)

  • We started with URC as the primary test stock, refining entry and exit strategies using our Modified 10-Step Trading Plan.
  • Trading frequency was limited to one entry and exit per week, avoiding overtrading and excessive transaction costs.
  • Entries were strictly based on daily charts, with stop-loss discipline introduced early.
  • Tactical entries were balanced against core positions to enhance execution and minimize risk.

Phase 2: Expanding to Multiple Stocks (January 21 – February 2025)

  • January 21, 2025: Completed Phase 1, after exiting URC due to price weakness, highlighting the importance of disciplined execution.
  • January 23, 2025: Began testing multiple stocks (URC, MONDE, ALLHC, DDMPR, and RCR) while applying the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy for trade evaluations.
  • January 24, 2025: Conducted our first trade evaluation (URC – Trade No. 3), reinforcing the importance of volume confirmation and trade rating assessments.
  • January 31, 2025: Implemented a BETA Portfolio Rebalancing to refine position sizing and sector diversification.

Major Refinements to the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy

As our live testing evolved, we made key adjustments that prepared us for the portfolio-wide rebalancing on January 31, 2025:

  1. Shift from Single-Stock Testing to Portfolio-Wide Application

    • Initially, we tested the strategy on URC alone but later expanded to 11 stocks, requiring a new way of assessing trade performance.
    • New Rule: Live testing must now include at least 20 trades per stock rather than 20 trades overall.

  2. Integration of Monthly Charts for Long-Term Trend Confirmation

    • While the daily chart remains useful for tactical adjustments, we realized that monthly charts provide a more reliable trend context.
    • New Rule: Monthly charts are now our primary timeframe, while daily charts are used for monitoring daily volume trends and short-term setups.

  3. Emphasis on Dynamic Stop-Loss Adjustments

    • Early on, we found that rigid stop-losses were too restrictive, leading to premature exits.
    • New Rule: Implement a hybrid approach with hard stop-losses for deep protection and dynamic stop-losses for trade flexibility.

  4. Stronger Trade Evaluation Metrics & Risk-Reward Adjustments

    • By January 24, 2025, we introduced trade rating scores (6.6–8.8 out of 10) to assess entry logic, risk management, and trade execution.
    • New Rule: Trades must have a minimum 7/10 rating before execution to ensure quality setups.

  5. Portfolio-Wide Adjustments & Tactical Rebalancing (January 31, 2025)

    • The market's high volatility necessitated reallocating capital across multiple stocks to reduce single-stock exposure.
    • New Rule: Implemented BETA Portfolio Rebalancing to increase diversification and avoid concentration risk.

How These Refinements Prepared Us for the January 31, 2025 Portfolio Rebalancing

Our gradual refinement of the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy ensured that we were well-positioned to handle the market conditions leading up to January 31, 2025:

  1. Portfolio Expansion Decision

    • Our realization that 20 trades were insufficient for a true strategy evaluation led us to extend testing to 20 trades per stock.
    • This allowed us to apply the strategy across different market conditions and stock types, avoiding a biased assessment.

  2. Risk Control & Dynamic Trade Adjustments

    • The introduction of dynamic stop-losses and volume confirmation helped us exit positions at the right time, minimizing losses.
    • The new rule of waiting for volume-backed breakouts saved us from premature entries.

  3. Emphasis on Higher-Quality Trade Setups

    • The 7/10 trade rating threshold ensured that we only executed high-probability trades, reducing unnecessary risks.
    • This forced us to maintain discipline, even when multiple stocks showed potential but lacked sufficient confirmation.

  4. Strategic Portfolio Rebalancing

    • By January 31, 2025, we had a clearer understanding of which stocks aligned best with our trading approach.
    • This led to rebalancing our BETA portfolio, ensuring that we had the right mix of core holdings and tactical trades.

Recommendations for February 2025

With our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy now optimized for live market conditions, our next steps focus on further refinement and disciplined execution:

1. Execute the 20-Trade Per Stock Rule

  • Our testing must now be expanded to at least 20 trades per stock, ensuring a comprehensive evaluation.
  • This will allow us to compare performance across different stocks and market conditions.

2. Strengthen Monthly Chart Implementation

  • While the daily chart remains important, our primary trading decisions will now be based on monthly charts.
  • This will filter out short-term noise and focus on broader trend movements.

3. Enhance Volume Analysis for Entry & Exit Decisions

  • No trade should be executed without volume confirmation supporting the setup.
  • Institutional selling pressure must be considered before entering any trade.
  • New Rule: We shall only enter breakouts with above-average volume, ensuring institutional support.

4. Maintain Disciplined Execution & Trade Rating System

  • We must continue using the 7/10 trade rating system to ensure that only high-quality trades are executed.
  • No deviation from the strategy is allowed—absolute discipline is required.

5. Adapt to Market Conditions & Adjust Position Sizing

  • Given the volatility observed in January 2025, February’s market conditions must dictate position sizes.
  • New Rule: Core positions should remain steady, but tactical entries should be adjusted based on risk-reward ratios.

Conclusion

With the lessons learned from January 2025, we are entering February 2025 with a fully refined version of our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy. The decision to expand testing to 20 trades per stock, focus on monthly charts, and strictly enforce volume-backed breakouts ensures that we execute our trades with absolute discipline.

Our next goal is to execute a minimum of 20 trades per stock with full adherence to the strategy. After completing this expanded live testing, we will conduct a final performance review to determine the overall effectiveness of the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy.

🚀 February 2025 marks the next evolution of our trading journey. The strategy is set—now, it’s all about disciplined execution. 🚀

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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GAWLOO: Ang Lugawang May Sarap ng Southeast Asia — Gawa ng Batangueñong Galing Abroad

Kung taga-Rosario, Batangas ka at nag-crave ka ng lugaw na may level-up na twist—eto na ang sagot sa panalangin ng sikmura mo: GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience.

Kung taga-Rosario, Batangas ka at nag-crave ka ng lugaw na may level-up na twist—eto na ang sagot sa panalangin ng sikmura mo: GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience.

GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience facade

📍 Matatagpuan sa V. Escaño St., Brgy. C, Rosario Batangas, si GAWLOO ay hindi lang basta kainan — isa siyang kwento ng pangarap, passion, at panlasang umikot sa Asia.


GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience Dine-In

Ang may-ari, si Jay Ubana, ay isang Batangueñong cook na nagtrabaho sa Singapore at Dubai ng 12 taon. Sa dami ng napuntahan niyang bansa—Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore—natutunan niyang i-appreciate ang iba't ibang bersyon ng congee. “Paborito talaga ng mga Pinoy ang lugaw,” wika ni Jay, “Kahit anong oras, kahit anong pakiramdam—masarap maglugaw.”

⭐ Lasa't Alaala sa Bawat Higop

Hindi lang basta lugaw, kundi southeast Asian-inspired congee na may toppings na mala-ulam sa sarap:

Kung taga-Rosario, Batangas ka at nag-crave ka ng lugaw na may level-up na twist—eto na ang sagot sa panalangin ng sikmura mo: GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience.

GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience facade

🍲 Seafood Gawloo at Lechon Gawloo — ang kanilang best-sellers na puwedeng pang-breakfast o pang-dinner.

🍛 Mix & Match Toppings: Tuwalya, Chicharon Bulaklak, Atay, Chicken, Fried Tokwa at iba pa.

🍗 Rice Meals tulad ng Chao Fan with Pork Siomai, Chicharon Bulaklak, o Lechon Kawali — swak sa mga ayaw ng sabaw pero gusto pa rin ng siksik sa lasa.

🧋 Drinks? May Black Gulaman at Lychee para pampawi ng uhaw habang humihigop ka ng mainit-init na lugaw.

💸 Presyo na Kayang-Kaya

Hindi mo kailangang bumyahe pa sa abroad para matikman ang ganitong congee—₱80 lang ang Small Bowl na may 1 Topping, at kung mas gutom ka, may Large Bowl for ₱90. Pwede ka ring magpa-top up ng 2, 3 o 4 na toppings para sa ultimate lugaw overload!

🤳 Para sa mga G na umorder online

Pwede kang magpa-deliver! Text o tawag lang sa 09397785658. Hanapin lang ang GAWLOO sa Facebook para sa menu at updates.

Sa totoo lang, sa bawat higop ng lugaw sa GAWLOO, parang may yumayakap sa’yo—maalala mo si Nanay o si Lola na nagluluto ng lugaw tuwing masama ang pakiramdam mo. Ngayon, kahit wala si Nanay sa tabi mo, may GAWLOO ka sa Rosario.

Supportahan natin ang lokal! Tikman ang lugaw na may kwento. Tikman ang GAWLOO.

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Jimmy Series Reflection – Week 1: Lesson of the First Loss

Board Lot Warrior › Jimmy Series › ₱5,000 Seed › Reflection › Unang Realized Loss sa MREIT Week 1 Reflection: - ₱55.44 loss sa MREIT, pero...