DDMPR January 21, 2025, Chart Evaluation Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Contents:

• Overview of DDMPR’s Market Context

• Chart Evaluation Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

• Final Thoughts

Overview of DDMPR’s Market Context

DDMP REIT Inc. (DDMPR) closed at ₱1.06 on January 21, 2025, with a -2.75% decline from the previous session. The day’s high was ₱1.08, and the low was ₱1.05, aligning closely with key moving averages. Volume stood at 3.022 million, indicating moderate trading interest.

A critical factor in today’s market action is the ex-dividend date of DDMPR. Historically, REITs tend to decline after the ex-date as investors adjust for the dividend payout. Let’s analyze this chart using our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy to assess its potential movement.

DDMPR’s January 21, 2025, stock chart showing key technical levels post-ex-dividend.

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Step 1: Identifying Market State & Trend Context

• 200-day MA (₱1.09): The price is still below the long-term moving average, indicating an overall downtrend.
• 20-day MA (₱1.05): The stock has been consolidating around this short-term support level.
• Trend Context: After a prolonged sideways phase, the stock has been attempting a short-term recovery but faces resistance near the 200-day MA.

📌 Conclusion: DDMPR is in an early trend reversal attempt but still struggling to break key resistances.

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Step 2: Assessing Price Position Relative to Key Levels

• The closing price (₱1.06) is above the 20-day MA (₱1.05) but below the 200-day MA (₱1.09).
• A successful break and close above ₱1.09 could confirm a potential reversal.

📌 Conclusion: Caution is needed, as failure to hold above ₱1.05 could signal a pullback.

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Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength

• The recent bullish push showed higher-than-average volume, but today’s red candle signals profit-taking.
• The current retracement is moderate, suggesting this could be a temporary pullback.

📌 Conclusion: Watch for a green power bar in the next few sessions for confirmation.

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Step 4: Entry Confirmation Using Technical Alignment

• The ideal entry would be near the ₱1.05 support zone with a confirmation signal (e.g., bounce with strong volume).
• Breakout Entry: A close above ₱1.09 could confirm bullish momentum.

📌 Conclusion: No clear entry signal yet, but potential setups exist if it holds above ₱1.05.

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Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

• A logical stop-loss would be below ₱1.03 (recent swing low).
• If it breaks below ₱1.05 decisively, a deeper correction may follow.

📌 Conclusion: Risk management is crucial—tight stops recommended below ₱1.03.

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Step 6: Color Change as Secondary Confirmation

• The price needs a green candle tomorrow to confirm strength.
• If the next session turns red, it may indicate further weakness.

📌 Conclusion: A color change to green at this level would be a bullish signal.

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Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategy

• If entered at ₱1.05, potential profit-taking zones:
  • Partial Exit at ₱1.10 (above 200-day MA resistance and adjusted for transaction cost)
  • Full Exit at ₱1.15 (previous resistance)

📌 Conclusion: Short-term traders may consider scaling out if price struggles at ₱1.10.

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Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Pullbacks

• Best re-entry: If price pulls back near ₱1.03-₱1.05 and holds.
• Aggressive traders could attempt a momentum breakout trade if it surges past ₱1.09.

📌 Conclusion: Monitor for re-entry opportunities around ₱1.05.

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Step 9: Tactical Position Management

• Shallow retracement (₱1.05-₱1.06) → Can consider larger positions.
• Deeper retracement (₱1.03) → Smaller position with tight stop.

📌 Conclusion: Size positions accordingly based on retracement depth.

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Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations

• If the price fails to hold ₱1.05, a counter-trend short may be possible down to ₱1.00.
• However, trading against a REIT’s support levels can be risky.

📌 Conclusion: Avoid counter-trend shorts unless a major breakdown occurs.

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Trading Plan

• Entry: Near ₱1.05 (if it holds)

• Stop-Loss: Below ₱1.03

• Targets: ₱1.10 (partial), ₱1.15 (full)

• Position Allocation: 10,000 shares total (4,000 for Core Position, 6,000 for Tactical Actions)

• Transaction Size: Minimum of 2,000 shares per trade

• Core Position Entry:

• Entry Price: Php 1.05 
• No. of Shares: 4,000
• Gross Amount: Php 4,200.00
• Transaction Cost: Php 12.39
• Net Amount: Php 4,212.39

• Core Position Exit - Breakeven:
• Exit Price: Php 1.07
• No. of Shares: 4,000.00
• Gross Amount:  Php 4,280.00
• Transaction Cost: 
• Net Amount: Php 4,241.69
• Realized Gain: Php 29.30
• Core Position Partial Exit:
• Exit Price: Php 1.10
• No. of Shares: 2,000.00
• Gross Amount:  Php 2,200.00
• Transaction Cost: Php 19.69
• Net Amount: Php 2,180.31
• Partial Profit: Php 74.00
• Core Position Full Exit:
• Exit Price: Php 1.15
• No. of Shares: 2,000.00
• Gross Amount:  Php 2,300.00
• Transaction Cost: Php 20.58
• Net Amount: Php 2,279.42
• Partial Profit: Php 173.00
• Total Gain: Php 247.00 (5.87%)

URC Closing Analysis – January 21, 2025

Contents:

• Bearish Sentiment Prevails, Yet We Took a Small Contrarian Trade – Here’s Why

• Evaluation of URC Closing Chart (January 21, 2025) Using Our Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

• Final Trading Recommendation

• The Questionable Yet Justifiable 50-Share Purchase at 65.95

• Market Recap & URC Trade Evaluation

• Transition to Phase 2: Expanding Our Trading Universe

• Final Thoughts

Bearish Sentiment Prevails, Yet We Took a Small Contrarian Trade – Here’s Why

Today’s trading session saw URC closing at 66.00, maintaining its position within the 33% Retracement Continuation Zone—a clear indication that bearish momentum remains strong. Our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy and Percentage Retracement Trading Strategy both suggested that the downtrend was intact, advising traders to sell or hold rather than buy.

URC stock closing analysis for January 21, 2025, marking the end of Phase 1 strategy testing.

Evaluation of URC Closing Chart (January 21, 2025) Using Our Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

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Step 1: Identifying Market State & Trend Context

• The URC closing price of 66.00 remains within the 33% Retracement Continuation Zone, confirming that bearish sentiment is still dominant.
• Price remains below both key moving averages (200-MA at 97.79, 20-MA at 75.40), reinforcing a strong downtrend.
• Decision: SELL bias remains intact.

Step 2: Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones

• Price is hovering below the key support of 67.00 and near the hard stop-loss level of 65.50.
• The retracement sweet spots at 67.85 and 68.75 suggest that the stock failed to reclaim these levels, further solidifying bearish strength.
• Decision: HOLD / SELL if further weakness persists.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength

• The red power bars remain dominant, with today's candle closing lower than the previous day.
• Volume remains elevated at 4.363M, suggesting continued selling pressure.
• Decision: SELL bias confirmed unless a strong reversal pattern emerges.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation From Both Strategies

• There was no confirmed breakout above key resistance, with price struggling near the retracement zones.
• Decision: SELL bias holds.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

• The hard stop-loss remains at 65.50, and the stock barely stayed above it at closing.
• Our earlier full exit at 65.85 was a defensive move to prevent further downside exposure.
• Decision: EXIT if price fails to reclaim support levels.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

• The absence of a strong green power bar means no clear shift in momentum.
• Decision: HOLD until reversal confirmation.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

• If shorting, partial profit-taking near 66.00 could be considered as a tactical move.
• Decision: PARTIAL SELL recommended.

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

• Since 67.00 remains a broken support, re-entry is highly speculative.
• Decision: HOLD, as risk remains elevated.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

• The 33% Retracement Continuation Zone signals further downside potential.
• Decision: HOLD / SELL based on further price movement.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

• Given that price is still within the bearish zone, counter-trend trades are risky and premature.
• Decision: HOLD / SELL unless a major reversal appears.

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Final Trading Recommendation

• HOLD / SELL: The bearish trend remains in control, and buyers need confirmation before considering entries.
• Monitor retracement levels: If price fails to reclaim 67.00, downside pressure will likely continue.

This concludes Week 4 of testing our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy—and despite a few questionable trades, the strategy has remained effective and reliable in guiding our decisions.

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The Questionable Yet Justifiable 50-Share Purchase at 65.95

Despite all signals pointing towards continued bearish momentum, we made a 50-share purchase at 65.95 just after the resumption of afternoon trading—even after fully exiting at 65.85 before the mid-day break.

So, why would we make a move that contradicts both our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy and the Percentage Retracement Trading Strategy?

While the decision lacked technical justification, we can stretch an explanation based on the following perspectives:

1. Strategic Experimentation with Controlled Risk

   • We may have taken the position to test market reaction at a key psychological zone (near 65.50-66.00).
   • The trade involved only 50 shares, making it a low-risk probe entry rather than a full commitment.

2. Emotional Bias and Market Psychology

   • Sometimes, market instinct kicks in. A sense of overextension on the downside might have influenced the trade.
   • A possible overreaction in price action after the sharp drop could have hinted at a minor bounce attempt.

3. Reassessing Market Momentum in Real Time

   • While our strategies signaled a continuation of the downtrend, intraday market movements sometimes present temporary strength unseen in daily charts.
   • A quick position might have been taken to assess price responsiveness at this level.

4. A Learning Opportunity for Our Trading Strategy

   • This move allows us to test the effectiveness of our retracement rules in real time.
   • Even flawed decisions contribute to refining our approach for future trades.

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Market Recap & URC Trade Evaluation

URC’s Closing Price & Technical Context

• Closing Price: 66.00, within the 33% Retracement Continuation Zone—confirming persistent bearish momentum.

• Hard Stop-Loss Level: 65.50, which remains a critical risk level.

• Resistance Levels: 67.85 and 68.75, which the stock failed to reclaim.

• Volume: 4.363M, showing continued selling pressure.

Trade Execution Summary

1. We fully exited 300 URC shares at 65.85 before the mid-day break to protect our capital.

2. We later purchased 50 shares at 65.95 after the afternoon session resumed.

   • This went against our strategy’s recommendation, as the bearish sentiment remained intact.

   • However, the small size of the trade and market conditions made it a calculated risk.

   • In hindsight, we acknowledge that strict adherence to our system should have prevailed.

Lessons & Strategy Adjustments

• We should have followed our strategy without deviation.

• Market instinct must never override structured risk management.

• Controlled-risk testing helped refine our approach, but Phase 2 will be fully disciplined.

Transition to Phase 2: Expanding Our Trading Universe

With four weeks of testing behind us, we are confident in the effectiveness of our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy. As we move forward into Phase 2, our focus shifts to applying the strategy across multiple Shariah-compliant stocks with absolute discipline—no deviations, no experimentation.

Phase 2 Trading Parameters

✅ Starting Capital: ₱22,200.00
✅ Stock Holdings: 1,000 RCR shares, 50 URC shares
✅ Current Portfolio Status: -₱1,516.07 loss
✅ Objective: Execute 20 trades following the strategy with precision.
✅ Key Principle: Strict adherence to the system—trade exactly as the strategy dictates.

Final Thoughts

Phase 1 of our testing process has proven our strategy’s reliability, and despite minor missteps, it has provided structured guidance in making disciplined trade decisions. Now, Phase 2 begins, and we are excited to see how our strategy performs across multiple Shariah-compliant stocks.

After 20 fully disciplined trades, we will assess our results and refine our approach as necessary. The next chapter of our trading journey starts now.

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Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Related Readings

• Micro Stock Trader: The Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy: Integrating Retracement for Better Trades

• Micro Stock Trader: Comparing the Modified 10-Step Trading Strategy vs. Retracement Trading Strategy

• Micro Stock Trader Portfolio Tracker Page

• Micro Stock Trader: Revealed: Our Top 3 Shariah-Compliant Stocks for a Winning Portfolio

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Premiere Island Power REIT Corporation (PREIT): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

URC Mid-Day Trading Insights – January 21, 2025

Contents:

• Mid-Day Break Evaluation of URC (January 21, 2025) Using Our Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

• Final Mid-Day Break Evaluation

• Conclusion

Universal Robina Corporation (URC) continues to face strong selling pressure as traders navigate key support levels. In today’s mid-day session, we analyze URC’s price action using our Hybrid 10-Step Strategy to determine the best possible trading decisions.

URC intra-day chart showing support, resistance, and key decision levels for traders.

Mid-Day Break Evaluation of URC (January 21, 2025) Using Our Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Step 1: Identifying Market State & Trend Context

• URC remains in a strong downtrend, trading well below both the 200-day MA (97.79) and 20-day MA (75.37).
• The price is testing a key support level at 67.00, but downward momentum is still present.
• Decision: SELL Bias – But watch for a potential support bounce.

Step 2: Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones

• The stock is trading below both key moving averages and within a high-risk zone near 65.50.
• Bargain price is set at 60.00, indicating a potential deeper retracement if 65.50 fails.
• Decision: HOLD (if waiting for a bounce confirmation) / SELL (if price remains weak).

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength

• Recent red power bars indicate strong selling pressure, with high volume confirming downward momentum.
• No significant green elephant bars have emerged to confirm a reversal.
• Decision: SELL (unless strong green bars emerge near support).

Step 4: Entry Confirmation From Both Strategies

• The price is hovering near the key support level at 67.00, but there is no clear breakout above resistance.
• If a strong green candle appears, a buy can be considered.
• Decision: HOLD (for confirmation) / SELL (if price closes below support).

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

• The hard stop-loss is set at 65.50 to prevent excessive losses.
• If price breaches 65.50, exiting entirely is the best risk-management decision.
• Decision: SELL (if price approaches or breaks 65.50).

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

• The recent red bars indicate no clear color change from red to green.
• For a reversal, a strong green elephant bar near 67.00 is required.
• Decision: HOLD (if waiting for confirmation) / SELL (if continued weakness).

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

• If already shorting from higher levels, partial profit-taking is a reasonable strategy.
• The hard resistance is at 71.50, meaning any upward move near this level should be considered for exit.
• Decision: PARTIAL SELL (for securing gains).

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

• If price retests 67.00 and holds, a possible re-entry can be considered.
• If price drops below 65.50, avoid re-entering until 60.00 bargain price is tested.
• Decision: HOLD (for now), SELL if 65.50 fails.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

• The market is still bearish, requiring careful trade management.
• Reducing position size and protecting capital is essential.
• Decision: PARTIAL SELL (for capital protection).

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

• If the price plunges to 60.00, a counter-trend trade can be considered.
• Until then, the overall sentiment remains bearish.
• Decision: HOLD for now, wait for further confirmation.

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Final Mid-Day Break Evaluation

• HOLD: If waiting for clearer reversal confirmation.
• PARTIAL SELL: If already shorting, take partial profits.
• SELL: If price drops below 65.50 or fails to show recovery.

📌 Final Decision: HOLD / PARTIAL SELL (Monitor for price action at key levels).

Conclusion

The afternoon session will be crucial in determining whether URC can defend its 67.00 support level or if further downside awaits. Traders should remain cautious and follow key risk management strategies to protect their capital.

Execution of Our Trade Decision

Given the weakness in price action and our strict adherence to risk management, we decided to entirely exit our 300 URC shares at 65.85 before the mid-day break, as the price approached our hard stop-loss at 65.50. Unfortunately, we were slightly delayed in executing our exit, reinforcing the importance of prompt execution in risk management. This decision was made to limit potential losses and reassess the market before considering any re-entry opportunities.

Lessons Learned and Strategy Reflection

In hindsight, our 90-share purchase of URC on January 20 was a misstep, as the sell signal did not materialize strongly enough to justify entry. Following our strategy more strictly would have helped us avoid unnecessary exposure. Additionally, our January 16 exit should have been a full exit rather than a partial one, as price action has confirmed continued bearish momentum. However, these experiences serve as valuable lessons.

This marks Week 4 of testing our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy, and overall, it has proven to be an effective framework. Despite some execution errors, the strategy has provided structured guidance and risk management, keeping our trading decisions disciplined. We acknowledge our lessons and move forward with greater confidence in the system.

• Justifying the 90-Share Purchase of URC Despite a Sell Signal

• Mid-Day Trading Reflection: January 16, 2025 – Lessons from the Tactical Action

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Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Related Readings

• Micro Stock Trader: The Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy: Integrating Retracement for Better Trades

• Micro Stock Trader: Comparing the Modified 10-Step Trading Strategy vs. Retracement Trading Strategy

• Micro Stock Trader Portfolio Tracker Page

• Micro Stock Trader: Revealed: Our Top 3 Shariah-Compliant Stocks for a Winning Portfolio

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Premiere Island Power REIT Corporation (PREIT): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

Justifying the 90-Share Purchase of URC Despite a Sell Signal

Contents:

• The WHY?

• Final Thoughts: A Tactical, Speculative Play

In our most recent analysis of Universal Robina Corporation (URC) using our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy and Percentage Retracement Trading Strategy, we reached a SELL or partial SELL conclusion. The closing price of PHP 68.80 was within the 33% Retracement Continuation Zone, which typically suggests that the bearish momentum is still in play. However, despite this assessment, we made a contrarian decision to purchase 90 shares during the run-off session. The question is: why?

URC Daily Chart Analysis as of January 20, 2025

1. Position Sizing for Future Upside

While our strategies indicated a SELL, we did not make an aggressive buy but instead took a small 90-share position. This allowed us to maintain exposure in the event of an unexpected reversal or relief rally without significantly increasing our risk.

2. Intraday or Run-Off Strength Consideration

During the run-off session, we observed subtle indications of buyer absorption at the lower price levels. This could imply that sellers may have exhausted their momentum, providing an opportunity for a small tactical entry.

3. Contrarian Play on a High-Risk Reward Setup

The 33% retracement continuation zone suggests that the downtrend remains active, but it also serves as an area where some reversal attempts may form. Taking a contrarian approach, we positioned ourselves for a possible counter-trend bounce while maintaining tight risk controls.

4. Preemptive Entry for a Possible Rebound

By entering at PHP 68.80, we positioned ourselves for a potential rebound toward the 20-day moving average (PHP 75.94) or the 66% retracement level (PHP 75.30). This trade assumes that a reaction to these levels is likely in the short term, creating an opportunity for a quick gain.

5. Global Market Sentiment: Trump’s Inauguration & Macro Considerations

In a few hours, Donald J. Trump will be sworn in as the 47th President of the United States. While this may seem distant from URC’s fundamentals, global market sentiment often trickles down to emerging markets like the PSE.

How Could Trump's Inauguration Affect the Market?

• Risk Sentiment Shift – If global investors perceive Trump's policies as pro-business, risk appetite may return, benefiting emerging market stocks.

• Currency Fluctuations – A potential strong US dollar policy may weaken the Philippine Peso, which could impact consumer goods companies like URC due to import costs. This uncertainty may have already been priced into the sell-off.

• Trade Relations & Commodities – If the US focuses on trade barriers, global supply chains may be affected. However, this could also mean a temporary relief rally as markets adjust to the new administration’s direction.

Final Thoughts: A Tactical, Speculative Play

Despite our trading strategies signaling a SELL, our 90-share purchase was a calculated tactical entry. We viewed this as a speculative trade based on:

• The potential for a near-term relief rally after market uncertainty fades.

• A contrarian stance at the 33% retracement level, anticipating at least a short-term bounce.

• External macroeconomic factors, including the impact of the US presidential transition on investor sentiment.

While our core strategies guide our trading discipline, market conditions sometimes justify small discretionary trades. This purchase is not about abandoning our strategies, but rather about adapting to real-time market conditions while keeping risk in check. If the price fails to hold, we remain ready to exit quickly with minimal losses, reinforcing our commitment to strategic risk management.

• Mid-Day Stock Analysis: URC's Intra-Day Chart Under Hybrid 10-Step Strategy for January 20, 2025

• Retracement Analysis of URC Downward Power Moves

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Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Related Readings

• Micro Stock Trader: The Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy: Integrating Retracement for Better Trades

• Micro Stock Trader: Comparing the Modified 10-Step Trading Strategy vs. Retracement Trading Strategy

• Micro Stock Trader Portfolio Tracker Page

• Micro Stock Trader: Revealed: Our Top 3 Shariah-Compliant Stocks for a Winning Portfolio

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Premiere Island Power REIT Corporation (PREIT): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

Retracement Analysis of URC Downward Power Moves

Contents:

• Understanding Retracement in Trading

• Breakdown of URC's Retracement Levels Across Three Downward Moves

• Retracement Probabilities and Key Levels

• Key Takeaways from the Charts

• Final Analysis and Trading Strategy

The analysis presented focuses on three separate downward power moves of Universal Robina Corporation (URC), each of which underwent a retracement phase. The data table outlines key retracement levels and probabilities of rebound, while the accompanying retracement charts visually highlight these key levels.

URC stock retracement levels from the August 2024 power move, showing potential trend continuation points.

URC stock retracement analysis for the November 2024 downward move, highlighting key probability zones.

URC retracement probabilities for January 2025, emphasizing resistance and reversal areas.

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Understanding Retracement in Trading

A retracement is a temporary reversal in price movement within an overall trend. In downtrending stocks, retracements occur as price moves upward after a significant drop before resuming its downward trajectory. Identifying retracement levels helps traders determine whether a pullback is a continuation setup or a signal for a potential reversal.

Key Retracement Levels:

1. 100% Retracement (Origin/Start) – The beginning of the downward power move.
2. 66% Retracement – The level where price has a 80% probability of resuming its downward move.
3. 33% Retracement – A more cautious zone where price has a 50% probability of continuing downward.
4. 0% Retracement (End of Move) – The lowest price reached in the downward move.

In contrast, a "Sweet Spot - Reversal Zone" lies in the 50%-75% retracement area, where there is a 60%-90% probability of a price rebound.

• Micro Stock Trader’s Adopted Retracement Trading Strategy

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Breakdown of URC's Retracement Levels Across Three Downward Moves

Trade Duration	5 Days (Aug 2024)	8 Days (Nov 2024)	4 Days (Jan 2025)
Start Date of Power Move	01-Aug-24	06-Nov-24	13-Jan-25
Origin Price (100%)	119.00	101.30	79.15
End Date of Power Move	06-Aug-24	14-Nov-24	17-Jan-25
End Price (0%)	98.10	78.65	67.80
Total Price Range	20.90	22.65	11.35

Retracement Probabilities and Key Levels

1. First Downtrend (August 2024)

   • 100% Retracement: 119.00
   • 66% Retracement: 111.90 (80% probability of downward continuation)
   • 33% Retracement: 105.00 (50% probability)
   • 0% Retracement: 98.10 (Potential reversal or continuation)
   • Reversal Sweet Spot: Between 108.55 and 113.80 (60%-90% probability of rebound)

2. Second Downtrend (November 2024)

   • 100% Retracement: 101.30
   • 66% Retracement: 93.60 (80% probability of downtrend continuation)
   • 33% Retracement: 86.15 (50% probability)
   • 0% Retracement: 78.65
   • Reversal Sweet Spot: Between 90.00 and 95.65

3. Third Downtrend (January 2025)

   • 100% Retracement: 79.15
   • 66% Retracement: 75.30
   • 33% Retracement: 71.55
   • 0% Retracement: 67.80
   • Reversal Sweet Spot: Between 73.50 and 76.35

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Key Takeaways from the Charts

Each retracement analysis provides the following insights:

First Move (August 2024)

• The price never surpassed the 33% retracement level (105.00), indicating strong bearish momentum.
• This failure to break above 33% reinforced the high probability of trend continuation, confirming the downtrend’s strength.
• The move served as a bearish confirmation, signaling a low likelihood of reversal.
• Short traders should have waited for a shallower retracement before re-entering, as the price did not show signs of a deeper pullback.
• Long traders looking for a bounce should have exercised caution, as retracement failure at 33% often signals further downside.
• Key level to monitor in future setups: The 66% retracement (111.90) was never tested, reinforcing that the bearish trend remained dominant.

Second Move (November 2024)

• Price briefly reached the 33%-50% retracement zone before selling pressure resumed.
• This created an ideal short-selling opportunity, as the probability of trend continuation remained high.

Third Move (January 2025)

• This was a shorter-duration downtrend, with retracement failing to approach even the 33% level (71.55).
• The narrower price range resulted in a tighter retracement zone, limiting opportunities for counter-trend trades.
• Selling pressure was exceptionally strong, causing the price to struggle to find support before stabilizing within the 33% continuation zone and moving sideways.

These insights emphasize the importance of adjusting expectations based on retracement behavior, recognizing when deep pullbacks are unlikely, and aligning trades accordingly.

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Final Analysis and Trading Strategy

• The 33% retracement level served as a key resistance zone, as price failed to move beyond this level in both August 2024 and January 2025.
• The 66% retracement level was never tested, highlighting the strength of the bearish trend and the absence of deeper pullbacks.
• The failure to rebound beyond 33% suggests that counter-trend trades were ineffective, reinforcing the importance of trend-following strategies over reversal setups in these scenarios.

Trading Decision Points:

• Short positions (continuation trades) remained valid even before reaching 66%, as price consistently reversed near the 33% retracement zone.
• Long positions (reversal trades) lacked confirmation, as price never entered the 50%-75% reversal sweet spot, requiring traders to wait for a stronger bullish signal before considering entries.

This refined retracement trading approach helps traders capitalize on both trend continuation and potential reversals, optimizing trade setups while minimizing unnecessary risk exposure.

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Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Related Readings

• Micro Stock Trader: The Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy: Integrating Retracement for Better Trades

• Micro Stock Trader: Comparing the Modified 10-Step Trading Strategy vs. Retracement Trading Strategy

• Micro Stock Trader Portfolio Tracker Page

• Micro Stock Trader: Revealed: Our Top 3 Shariah-Compliant Stocks for a Winning Portfolio

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Mid-Day Stock Analysis: URC's Intra-Day Chart Under Hybrid 10-Step Strategy for January 20, 2025

Mid-Day Stock Analysis

January 20, 2025

The stock market is a battlefield of buyers and sellers, with every price movement telling a story. In this mid-day assessment of Universal Robina Corporation (URC), we apply our Hybrid 10-Step Strategy to evaluate the stock’s performance and determine the best course of action for traders.

Universal Robina Corporation (URC) intra-day chart analysis with key trend and price action

Step 1: Identifying Market State & Trend Context

URC is still in a downtrend, with recent price action showing a steep decline. A slight consolidation is emerging near a possible support level, but the broader sentiment remains bearish. ➡️ Decision: SELL bias, but monitor for potential reversal.

Step 2: Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones

The stock is below key moving averages, reinforcing the bearish outlook. However, there is a minor stabilization at a potential support zone. ➡️ Decision: HOLD (if monitoring for reversal) / SELL (if trend remains weak).

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength

URC’s recent red power bars indicate strong downward pressure. The emerging green candle is weak, failing to signal a strong reversal. ➡️ Decision: SELL (unless stronger green power bars appear).

Step 4: Entry Confirmation From Both Strategies

There is no confirmed breakout above resistance, and the small green candle suggests hesitation. ➡️ Decision: HOLD (for more confirmation) / SELL (if resistance holds).

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

For existing long positions, stop-loss levels should be closely watched. For short positions, a trailing stop-loss is advisable to lock in profits. ➡️ Decision: HOLD (if stop-loss is secure) / SELL (if price nears stop-loss without recovery).

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

A minor shift from red to green is observed, but the lack of momentum weakens its validity as a buy signal. ➡️ Decision: HOLD (if waiting for confirmation) / SELL (if no strong recovery appears).

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

URC hasn’t reached a major resistance level yet. However, partial selling of short positions can be considered due to the reduced downward momentum. ➡️ Decision: PARTIAL SELL (secure some gains on short positions).

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

A potential buy entry exists if a strong bounce from support occurs. However, with weak buying pressure, re-entry is currently risky. ➡️ Decision: HOLD (until stronger confirmation emerges).

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

The market is showing hesitation, indicating a slowing down of the downtrend. For those holding short positions, partial profit-taking could be wise. ➡️ Decision: PARTIAL SELL (lock in gains).

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

Since the market remains in a strong downtrend, a counter-trend buy is only justified if a strong reversal signal appears. ➡️ Decision: HOLD (wait for further confirmation before a counter-trend buy).

Final Mid-Day Evaluation

• HOLD: If waiting for a clearer signal before making a move.

• PARTIAL SELL: If already in a short position to secure profits.

• SELL: If downward pressure persists without signs of a reversal.

Conclusion

URC remains in a bearish state, and while minor consolidation is happening, it lacks the strength for a decisive reversal. Traders should adopt a cautious stance—monitoring for potential recovery while securing profits from short positions. The afternoon session will be key in confirming whether this level holds as support or if further downside is imminent.

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Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

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