Saturday, January 18, 2025

BETA Tracker Update – January 17, 2025: Live Testing Insights & Strategy Evolution

As we head into Week 3 of live testing our Modified 10-Step Trading Plan, we continue refining our trading strategy through our Budget Ethical Trading Account (BETA). This dedicated trading portfolio allows us to track our active trading results separately from our Micro Stock Trading Investment Portfolio, which maintains a mix of long-term investments and short-term trades.

Micro Stock Trader: Investment Tracker

Our journey began with the 8-Step Trading Plan, inspired by Oliver Velez, which served as our foundational trading structure. However, through daily trade analysis, we identified areas for improvement, leading to the evolution of the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan (Read More). Now, with BETA in place, we can fine-tune our strategies under real market conditions and adjust as needed.

Introducing the BETA Tracker: Weekly Updates on Our Budget Ethical Trading Account

AS OF:	JANUARY 18, 2025
PORTFOLIO SUMMARY	BETA
Inception Date:	January 15, 2025
Initial Deposit:	Php 15,000.00
Net Cash Flows:	Php 21,228.38
Adjusted Principal Portfolio Value:	Php 36,228.38
Starting Portfolio Value:	Php 36,228.38
Ending Portolio Value:	Php 35,977.93
Realized Gain/Loss:	- Php 250.46
Percent Realized Gain/Loss:	- 0.69%
PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION:	100%
Universal Robina Corporation (URC)	22%
RL Commercial REIT, Inc. (RCR)	17%
Cash Balance	62%
DIVIDENDS:	0
Universal Robina Corporation (URC)	0
RL Commercial REIT, Inc. (RCR)	0
NUMBER OF TRANSACTIONS	13

Portfolio Performance Overview (January 15 to 17, 2025)

Initial Deposit: PHP 15,000.00
Net Cash Flows: PHP 21,228.38
Adjusted Principal Portfolio Value: PHP 36,228.38
Starting Portfolio Value: PHP 36,228.38
Ending Portfolio Value: PHP 35,977.93
Realized Gain/Loss: -PHP 250.46
Unrealized Gain/Loss: -0.69%

Portfolio Allocation & Trading Strategy

Universal Robina Corporation (URC): 22%
RL Commercial REIT, Inc. (RCR): 17%
Cash Balance: 62%

Key Lessons from Week 3 & BETA's Role in Refining Our Strategy

1. The Importance of Stop-Loss Adjustments in Live Trading

One of the biggest takeaways from Week 3 has been the need for a dynamic stop-loss setup in response to market volatility. Early on, we encountered significant price swings, reinforcing the importance of:
✔ Hard Stop-Loss: A rigid, non-negotiable level that protects capital from deep drawdowns.
✔ Dynamic Stop-Loss: A flexible approach that adapts to market conditions, helping us capture gains while managing risk.

Our experiences in Week 3 have shown that without proper stop-loss implementation, small trading accounts like BETA can quickly erode capital. (Read More)

2. Tactical Entries & Exits: Balancing Strategy with Transaction Costs

Another critical evolution in our trading approach has been refining tactical entries and exits, particularly when considering transaction costs. In smaller accounts, frequent trades can eat into profits, requiring a careful balance between execution and cost efficiency.

Key adjustments made in BETA:
✔ Tactical Entries: Smaller, strategic positions placed at key market levels.
✔ Core Positions: Longer-hold positions based on a strong technical setup.
✔ Transaction Cost Consideration: Ensuring each trade has a sufficient risk-reward ratio to justify execution.

These refinements allow us to protect our trading capital while maintaining active market participation. (Read More)

Key Takeaways & Next Steps for BETA

1️⃣ Live Testing Validates Strategy Adjustments:

The Modified 10-Step Trading Plan has improved execution clarity by separating tactical trading (BETA) from long-term investments (Micro Stock Trading Investment Portfolio).

2️⃣ Stop-Loss Refinements Are Crucial for Small Accounts:

Hard stops protect capital, while dynamic stop-losses ensure we stay in profitable trades while reducing downside exposure.

3️⃣ Efficient Tactical Entries/Exits Are Necessary for Long-Term Growth:

Managing transaction costs and ensuring proper trade setups will be a continued focus in upcoming weeks.

Conclusion

The launch of BETA Trading Account in Week 3 marks an important milestone in our trading strategy evolution. By tracking our active trading activities separately, we can refine execution, manage risk, and optimize tactical trading without affecting long-term investment holdings.

As we move forward, our focus will be on adapting to market conditions while maintaining strict discipline in execution. The lessons learned in BETA will serve as the foundation for improving our overall investment approach in both trading and portfolio management.

📢 Stay tuned for next week's update as we continue refining our strategy in live market conditions!

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

As part of our continuous refinement of the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan, we are excited to introduce the BETA Tracker—a dedicated space for monitoring our Budget Ethical Trading Account (BETA) in real time. Updated every weekend after market close, this weekly tracker provides insights into our live trading adjustments, strategy refinements, and risk management decisions.

An analytical approach to monitoring trading performance, managing risk, and optimizing entry and exit strategies in the Budget Ethical Trading Account (BETA).

Tracking Weekly Progress: Refining Ethical Trading Strategies with the BETA Tracker

What is BETA?

BETA is a scaled-down, live-testing account designed to explore tactical entries, core positions, and risk management techniques under actual market conditions. Unlike our primary account, which held a larger position in URC, BETA starts with a manageable 210 shares, allowing us to refine execution strategies with minimal risk exposure.

Introducing BETA: Budget Ethical Trading Account for Live Strategy Testing

BETA Trading Action Review – January 15, 2025: Tactical Exit Amid Volatility

Key Features of the BETA Tracker:

🔹 Weekly Performance Recap – A summary of trades, position updates, and market reactions over the past trading week.
🔹 Real-Time Position Management – Track our position sizing strategy, including tactical (10% of shares) and core entries (50% of shares).
🔹 Trading Scenarios in Action – Follow our approach to testing key support levels, profit-taking at resistance, and applying disciplined stop-loss strategies.
🔹 Strategic Adjustments – See how we adapt our plan based on market movements, refining our strategy with each trade.
🔹 Documented Insights – Every trade, decision, and lesson is meticulously recorded to improve future execution in our larger accounts.

Why Follow the BETA Tracker?

By monitoring BETA, readers can gain practical insights into live market execution, risk management, and strategy optimization—all while maintaining an ethical and disciplined approach to stock trading. Whether you're a beginner or an experienced trader, this tracker serves as an educational resource showcasing real-world trading applications.

Stay updated every weekend as we document our progress with BETA, share lessons learned, and refine our strategies for more effective, ethical trading.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Thursday, January 16, 2025

Applying the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan to Our BETA Account – Using the Daily Chart for Trade Setups

Our Budget Ethical Trading Account (BETA) journey has reinforced the importance of choosing the right timeframe for trade execution. After testing different approaches, we found that the daily chart is the most effective for our capital level. By applying our Modified 10-Step Trading Plan to this timeframe, we can set up trades strategically, reduce unnecessary transactions, and align better with the broader trend. The latest price action in URC (Universal Robina Corporation) provides us with a perfect opportunity to refine our approach and develop a structured plan for Week 4 (January 20-24, 2025).

Introducing BETA: Budget Ethical Trading Account for Live Strategy Testing

The Modified 10-Step Trading Plan: Enhancing Risk Management and Flexibility

Mid-Day Trading Reflection: January 16, 2025 – Lessons from the Tactical Action

Transaction Costs and Tactical Adjustments – Refining Our Trading Plan

A daily candlestick chart of Universal Robina Corporation (URC) as of January 16, 2025, displaying a downward trend with price closing at Php 68.00. The chart includes moving averages (20-MA at Php 76.82 and 200-MA at Php 98.32), increasing volume, and a bearish breakdown.

URC Daily Chart as of January 16, 2025, showing a continued downtrend with price closing at Php 68.00. The chart highlights key moving averages, volume levels, and bearish momentum after breaking below the 20-day moving average (Php 76.82).

Applying the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan to the Daily Chart

Step 1: State

Current Market Condition: URC closed at Php 68.00, down Php 1.80 (-2.58%) from the previous session.
Trend: The price is below the 20-MA (Php 76.82) and the 200-MA (Php 98.31), confirming a strong bearish trend.
Volume: Increased selling pressure, with volume at 5.939M, indicating sustained downside momentum.

Step 2: Position and Location

Previous Support (Php 70.50) has been broken, meaning we should now look at Php 67.00-Php 66.50 as the next key support zone.
Resistance remains at Php 71.50 (our prior tactical exit level) and the 20-MA (Php 76.82).

Step 3: Assess Power Bars

The large red bar on January 16, 2025, confirms a continuation of the downtrend.
There is no immediate reversal signal—no bottoming tail or green candles with high volume.

Step 4: Entry Strategy (Simplifying Tactical Actions)

New Entry Criteria for Week 4 (January 20-24, 2025):
- Only enter if the price stabilizes above Php 67.00 with a reversal candle (green hammer, engulfing candle) and high volume.
- If the price continues to drop, wait for potential buying opportunities near Php 66.00 or lower.

Step 5: Place and Monitor Stop Loss

Hard Stop-Loss for Week 4: Php 65.50 (to avoid getting trapped in further breakdowns).
Trailing stop to be adjusted based on price action near Php 67.00-Php 68.00.

Step 6: Color Change (Trend Confirmation Before Action)

We will not enter until at least one strong green day appears, showing buying pressure.
A bullish confirmation should include a higher close than the previous day with above-average volume.

Step 7: Profit Taking (Strategic Exits Based on Daily Chart)

First tactical exit at Php 71.50 (prior support turned resistance).
Secondary exit at Php 75.00 if momentum continues upward.

Step 8: Re-entry (Avoiding Frequent Trading)

No intra-day re-entries—we will only re-enter if the daily chart confirms sustained bullish movement.
If stopped out at Php 65.50, we will wait for consolidation before another entry.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

Reduce the number of transactions to max 2 per week:
- One well-timed entry based on support confirmation.
- One exit when a key resistance is hit (or stop-loss is triggered).

Step 10: Counter-Trend Entries (Only for Strong Reversals)

If URC drops below Php 67.00 but quickly rebounds, we will monitor for a potential bounce trade.
However, if no reversal signal appears, we stay out.

Week 4 (January 20-24, 2025) Trading Plan

Scenario 1: URC Stabilizes Above Php 67.00

Action: Buy small position (50 shares) only if a green reversal candle appears with strong volume.
Stop-Loss: Php 65.50 (to protect capital).
Exit Target: Php 71.50 for partial take-profit.

Scenario 2: URC Drops Below Php 67.00 Without Reversal

Action: No trade—wait for consolidation near Php 65.00-Php 66.00.
Review Stop-Loss Placement: Adjust potential buy levels accordingly.

Scenario 3: URC Breaks Above Php 71.50

Action: Monitor for momentum. If volume supports it, we can buy on retracement to Php 70.00-Php 70.50.
Exit Target: Php 75.00 or trailing stop at Php 72.00.

Key Adjustments for the BETA Account

Limit Trading Frequency:
- Only one entry and one exit per week unless major trend shifts occur.
Avoid Intra-Day Trading:
- Entries will only be based on the daily chart, not smaller timeframes.
Respect Key Support and Resistance Levels:
- Php 67.00 is a critical zone—any buying must be confirmed by a green candle and volume.
- Php 71.50 is a hard resistance—exit immediately if reached.
Trade Only When the Reward Justifies the Risk:
- Minimum target price differential must be Php 3.00 per share to offset transaction costs.

A daily candlestick chart of Universal Robina Corporation (URC) as of January 16, 2025, marking essential trading levels for Week 4 (January 20-24, 2025). The chart shows hard resistance at Php 71.50, support at Php 67.00, stop-loss at Php 65.50, and a bargain price at Php 60.00, with volume analysis.

URC Daily Chart as of January 16, 2025, setting up the Week 4 Trading Scenario. The chart highlights key support at Php 67.00, resistance at Php 71.50, and a hard stop-loss at Php 65.50, with a bargain price of Php 60.00 for potential accumulation.

Final Thoughts

Our experience over the past two weeks confirmed that the daily chart is the best timeframe for our BETA Account. By simplifying our tactical actions, focusing on stronger price moves, and avoiding intra-day noise, we can maximize capital efficiency and minimize unnecessary losses.

For Week 4, our strategy is clear: wait for a confirmation candle at Php 67.00 before entering, set a tight stop-loss, and target Php 71.50 for exits. This disciplined approach aligns with our goal of small-scale, ethical trading with cost-conscious decision-making.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

The second day of our BETA Account testing provided a critical lesson: while executing tactical entries and exits is important, factoring in transaction costs (friction costs) is essential for realistic and sustainable trading. By aligning our experience with our Modified 10-Step Trading Plan, we can better manage costs, improve profitability, and reduce capital erosion. Here’s what happened and how we’re adapting.

A 5-minute intra-day chart of Universal Robina Corporation (URC), annotated with tactical entries at Php 70.85 and Php 71.20, a tactical exit at Php 71.50, and a stop-loss at Php 70.10.

Annotated 5-minute chart of URC showing tactical entries, exits, and stop-loss levels on January 16, 2025, with key lessons on transaction costs.

Applying the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan

Step 1: State

We began January 16, 2025, with 110 shares of URC in the portfolio and the potential to re-enter 100 additional shares. Following yesterday’s tactical exit at Php 70.00, our focus was on observing the market open for opportunities to rebuild the tactical position near key levels.

Step 2: Position and Location

The day opened with a gap-up and a strong green elephant bar, moving above Php 70.50 (key support level). The price quickly rose to Php 71.20, supported by increasing volume and a rising 20-MA. This positioning indicated bullish momentum, but resistance near Php 71.50 was already identified.

Step 3: Assess Power Bars

The green elephant bar at the open was followed by smaller green bars, showing strong initial momentum. However, as the price approached Php 71.50, the candlestick range began narrowing, and volume started to decline—signaling potential buyer fatigue.

Step 4: Entry

We executed tactical re-entries as follows:

20 shares at Php 70.85 after the first green bar.
80 shares at Php 71.20 during the continued rally.

While these entries aligned with the momentum, they were frequent and at relatively high levels, which compounded the impact of transaction costs.

A 5-minute intra-day chart of Universal Robina Corporation (URC), annotated with tactical entries at Php 70.85 and Php 71.20.

Annotated 5-minute chart of URC showing tactical entries.

Step 5: Place and Monitor Stop Loss

We placed our stop-loss at Php 70.10 for all positions to minimize potential losses if the market reversed below the key support level of Php 70.50.

Step 6: Color Change

At approximately 10:30 AM, the price action began to show signs of weakness:

Narrow-range red candlesticks formed near the Php 71.50 resistance.
Volume decreased, indicating fading buying pressure.
A clear color change from green to red signaled the end of the upward momentum.

Step 7: Profit Take (with Tactical Exits)

Following the color change, we executed a tactical exit of 100 shares at Php 71.50, locking in small gains from the rally. This exit aligned with our pre-identified resistance level but didn’t fully account for the impact of transaction costs.

Step 8: Re-entry

After the tactical exit, no further re-entries were made as the price showed weakening momentum. However, hindsight suggests avoiding the initial multiple re-entries at higher levels (Php 70.85 and Php 71.20) to minimize transaction costs and risk.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

By mid-day, a sharp gap-down occurred, breaking below the 20-MA (Php 70.94) and the key support level (Php 70.50). Based on our plan, this should have triggered our stop-loss at Php 70.10, prompting an exit of the remaining 110 shares to preserve capital.

However, due to execution challenges, we were unable to exit at the planned stop-loss level and instead carried the 110 URC shares until the market close, exposing the position to further downside risk. This unexpected hold reinforced the importance of strict adherence to stop-loss execution and the need for proactive order placement to manage risk effectively. Moving forward, we will refine our execution strategy by:

Using automatic stop-loss orders instead of manual execution to ensure timely exits.
Monitoring price action more closely near key levels to avoid missed sell opportunities.
Implementing a contingency plan for managing positions when rapid price movements occur.

This experience underscores the critical role of disciplined position management in preserving capital and maintaining the integrity of our Modified 10-Step Trading Plan.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Entries

Given the bearish reversal and high selling volume, no counter-trend entries were considered. The focus shifted to protecting capital and re-assessing the strategy.

Lessons Learned

Transaction Costs Are Real and Impactful:
- With a Php 1.00 break-even differential, small price movements are insufficient to generate net profits after fees.
- Frequent re-entries at tight price ranges compounded costs, leading to capital erosion.
Optimize Tactical Actions:
- Instead of multiple small re-entries (e.g., Php 70.85 and Php 71.20), consolidate trades into fewer, larger positions at key support levels.
Focus on Wider Price Differentials:
- Future tactical trades will only be executed if the potential price movement exceeds Php 2.00, ensuring profitability after costs.
Refine Profit-Taking and Re-Entry Strategies:
- Avoid re-entries near resistance levels (e.g., Php 71.50) unless clear signs of continued upward momentum are present.
Preserve Capital During Reversals:
- The stop-loss at Php 70.10 effectively limited losses, highlighting the importance of disciplined risk management.
Strict Stop-Loss Execution Is Essential
- Failure to execute the planned stop-loss at Php 70.10 resulted in unnecessary downside exposure, reinforcing the importance of following the trading plan without hesitation.
- Use automated stop-loss orders instead of manual execution to prevent missed exits during rapid price movements.
- Always have a contingency plan for market volatility to ensure capital protection, even if price action moves unexpectedly.

Action Plan for the BETA Account

Limit Trading Frequency:
- Cap the number of transactions to 4 per week to reduce friction costs and focus on high-quality setups.
Target Wider Price Differentials:
- Only execute trades where potential price movements exceed Php 2.00 per share to offset transaction costs.
Strategic Position Sizing:
- Consolidate tactical entries into fewer, larger positions at key levels (e.g., Php 70.00 or Php 69.80) to improve cost-efficiency.
Re-Entry Discipline:
- Re-enter positions only after confirmation signals (e.g., green candlesticks with strong volume at support levels).
Enhanced Stop-Loss Placement:

Align stop-loss levels closer to key technical levels (e.g., Php 70.50 or Php 69.80) to minimize unnecessary exposure.

By aligning our trading plan with realistic cost considerations, we’re building a strategy that prioritizes sustainability and long-term success. This journey is all about learning, refining, and adapting—stay tuned as we continue to test and grow!

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Summary of Trading Activity

Period Covered: January 14-16, 2025
Principal Portfolio Value: Php 15,000.00
Current Portfolio Value (Equity): Php 14,749.54
Realized Gain/Loss: Php -250.46
Number of Transactions: 12

The past three trading days provided valuable insights into how transaction costs and tactical trading decisions impact overall performance. Despite adhering to a structured trading plan, the effects of frequent re-entries and high trading costs eroded our capital efficiency. Below, we analyze these implications and outline recommendations for refining our approach.

A 5-minute trading chart of Universal Robina Corporation (URC) dated January 16, 2025, annotated with tactical exits at Php 69.80 and Php 71.50, tactical re-entries at Php 70.85 and Php 71.20, and a support level near Php 70.50. The chart shows a morning price surge, with moving averages and volume trends assisting in trade execution.

Annotated 5-minute chart of URC on January 16, 2025, highlighting tactical re-entries, exits, and key price levels. The chart reflects a morning rally following a tactical re-entry at Php 70.85 and Php 71.20, with key resistance and support levels marked for strategic decision-making.

Cost Implications and Capital Erosion Analysis

Transaction Costs Impact

Php 1.00 Break-Even Differential: The impact of transaction costs was more significant than anticipated. With 12 transactions executed, these costs eroded potential gains, limiting profitability.
Frequent buying and selling without substantial price movements led to excessive trading fees:
- Example: Selling 100 shares at Php 70.00 and re-buying at Php 70.85 or Php 71.20 increased costs rather than yielding profit.

Over-Trading

12 transactions in 3 days for a Php 15,000 portfolio is high-frequency trading, which is not suitable for a small-scale account.
Repeated tactical re-entries (e.g., multiple small buys on January 14 and re-entries on January 16) diluted capital efficiency instead of optimizing profits.
Effect: Instead of focusing on fewer, high-probability trades with larger price differentials, multiple entries and exits compounded transaction costs.

Capital Erosion from Unrealized Efficiency

Portfolio Impact: The Php -250.46 loss represents a 1.67% decline in equity in just two days.
Reasons for Erosion:
- Small price differentials between entries and exits did not offset the break-even costs.
- Tactical decisions did not fully account for transaction cost structures, leading to net losses instead of gains.

Key Observations and Lessons Learned

Frequent Re-Entries Add Little Value

On January 14, the portfolio executed seven buy transactions at different price points between Php 69.40 and Php 71.45.
Lesson: Consolidating these buys into fewer transactions at clear price zones (Php 70.00-Php 70.50) could have reduced costs and improved execution efficiency.

Inefficient Tactical Re-Entry

On January 16, two re-entry trades at Php 70.85 and Php 71.20 led to increased exposure at higher prices, despite limited upside potential given resistance near Php 71.50.
The subsequent tactical exit at Php 70.10 compounded losses, as the break-even cost differential could not be recovered.

Poor Reward-to-Cost Ratio

While tactical trades aimed for small gains, the actual cost of these transactions outweighed the potential rewards.
The small average price movement (Php 0.50-Php 1.00 per trade) did not justify the high trading frequency.

Strict Stop-Loss Execution Is Essential

The planned stop-loss at Php 70.10 was not executed, exposing the position to further downside risk.
Lesson: Implement automated stop-loss orders to avoid missing critical exit points due to manual execution delays.
Lesson: Have contingency plans for rapid price movements to ensure immediate responses to market conditions.

Recommendations for Improvement

1. Focus on Fewer, High-Probability Trades

Action Plan:
- Reduce trade frequency and consolidate tactical entries into larger, well-timed positions.
- Example: Instead of multiple small buys on January 14, one or two larger buys at key support levels (Php 70.00 or Php 69.50) could reduce costs while maintaining exposure.

2. Widen Tactical Price Targets

Break-Even Costs:
- To offset the Php 1.00 transaction cost differential, trades must target price movements of Php 2.00 or more to be profitable.
Action Plan:
- Only execute trades where clear technical indicators (e.g., support/resistance breaks, volume spikes) signal potential for larger price movements.

3. Use Stop-Losses Strategically

Observation: The stop-loss at Php 70.10 on January 16 was necessary but ineffective due to execution delays.
Action Plan:
- Set stop-loss levels at key support points (e.g., Php 70.00 or Php 69.80).
- Avoid re-entering trades unless strong upward momentum is confirmed.

4. Prioritize Cost Efficiency

Observation: Transaction costs are disproportionately high relative to the portfolio size.
Action Plan:
- Reduce trade volume (focus on fewer but higher-quality trades).
- Explore cost-efficient brokers or strategies with lower break-even thresholds.
- Hold positions longer to minimize transaction costs.

5. Analyze Market Context Before Re-Entry

Observation: Re-entering at Php 71.20 after selling at Php 70.00 ignored the broader market trend and increased risk.
Action Plan:
- Re-enter only at key support levels with clear reversal signals (e.g., green candlesticks with strong volume).

Conclusion

The Php -250.46 loss reflects the impact of frequent tactical trades combined with transaction costs. While the strategy demonstrated discipline with stop-losses and tactical exits, it lacked efficiency in minimizing trading costs and maximizing price differentials.

Moving Forward:

Focus on fewer, high-quality trades with larger price targets.
Be mindful of transaction costs and consolidate tactical actions to preserve capital.
Maintain discipline with stop-losses and re-entries only when supported by strong market signals.

This experience reinforces the importance of balancing tactical agility with cost-consciousness to ensure sustainable portfolio growth. By refining our approach, we aim to enhance capital efficiency while maintaining a structured, disciplined trading plan for future trades.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

At Micro Stock Trader, we strictly adhere to technical analysis as the core of our trading strategy, and this approach remains unchanged as we continue to test and refine our Modified 10-Step Trading Plan. Interestingly, during Week 3 of our testing period, we observed a notable coincidence: the technical stop-loss level we identified near Php 68.00 closely aligns with the fundamental valuation level of Php 67.31, as presented by The Retail Fund Manager (TRFM) in his analysis of URC, based on available 3rd Quarter 2024 data.

Part of our scenario for Week 3 is the Breakdown Below Php77.07: We said that: "If the price breaks below support, it could retest the Php73.80 level. A breakdown below Php73.80 would invalidate the bullish outlook and require a defensive strategy."

Small Position Sizes: A Key Element in Managing Trading Risk

While our focus remains entirely on technical analysis, we found it noteworthy that a purely technical level coincides with a fundamental valuation from an independent source. This alignment provides an interesting benchmark but does not influence our decision-making process.

Representation of fundamental and technical analyses coincidentally aligning in their outcomes despite being independent approaches.

Independent methods, coincidentally aligned: Fundamental and technical analyses point to the same trading scenario.

Our Strictly Technical Approach

In our Modified 10-Step Trading Plan, we set a technical stop-loss slightly below Php 68.00 based on:

Key support levels observed on the daily chart and 5-minute chart.
The objective of cutting losses before a deeper decline during high-volatility sessions.

This level was identified solely through price action and market behavior—hallmarks of technical analysis. It just so happened that TRFM’s Php 67.31 valuation, derived from fundamental analysis, aligned closely with our stop-loss level, creating a coincidental but interesting point of reference.

TRFM’s Fundamental Valuation as a Benchmark

For context, TRFM provides the following fundamental valuation scenarios for URC based ending 3Q2024 results:

Php 74.10 for a flat growth scenario: URC’s fair value assuming modest growth.
Php 67.31 for a scenario indicating company weakness: A more conservative outlook based on weaker performance.
Php 60.00 something as the bargain price: A deeply discounted price indicating significant undervaluation.

We introduced TRFM’s valuation purely for benchmarking purposes. It provides an external perspective on what the stock might be worth based on fundamental factors. However, we do not incorporate fundamental analysis into our trading strategy, nor does it affect our technical decision-making.

URC (Universal Robina Corporation) Stock CRASHED and Will CRASH DEEPER? BUY The Dip NOW? by The Retail Fund Manager PH Channel, YouTube, https://youtu.be/G7tXQ477zHY?si=gijeabQrHKVKfkts

Coincidental Alignment: Php 68.00 and Php 67.31

Despite our adherence to technical analysis, the coincidence between our technical stop-loss level near Php 68.00 and TRFM’s fundamental valuation of Php 67.31 is noteworthy for two reasons:

Reinforces Our Confidence:
Even though our stop-loss was derived purely from technical signals, its alignment with a fundamental valuation adds an extra layer of confidence that we are managing risk effectively.
Provides an Interesting Benchmark:
While we remain technical traders, it’s useful to know that an independent fundamental valuation aligns with our technical analysis at a key level. This information, though not actionable for us, offers a broader context for our trades.

Executing Our Trading Plan

To test our strategy this week, we strictly adhered to our technical rules—entirely independent of any influence from fundamental analysis—and aimed to assess whether we could achieve a successful outcome despite heightened market volatility. Our approach was guided by the following rules:

Hard Stop-Loss at Php 67.75:
We set a hard stop-loss just below our technical support level of Php 68.00 to avoid endlessly adjusting it downward during a potential decline.
Profit Target at Php 73.50:
Our profit target was set at Php 73.50, a level identified through technical resistance analysis.

Key Takeaways

Strictly Technical Approach:
Our stop-loss and profit targets were derived entirely from technical analysis. The coincidence with TRFM’s fundamental valuation was purely incidental and did not influence our trading decisions.
Benchmarking Without Integration:
TRFM’s valuation serves as an external benchmark for comparison, but it does not form part of our strategy. We remain committed to technical analysis as the core of our approach.
Discipline in Execution:
By sticking to our hard stop-loss and profit target, we avoided emotional trading and ensured that our decisions were guided by predefined technical rules.

Final Thought

While we maintain a strictly technical trading strategy, recognizing external benchmarks can provide useful context. The coincidence between our technical stop-loss level of just below Php 68.00 and TRFM’s fundamental valuation of Php 67.31 was an interesting point of reference, but it did not affect our trading plan. We continue to focus on technical analysis, price action, and disciplined execution to guide our trades.

If you're interested in following our journey as we refine our trading strategy, stay tuned for more updates as we approach the end of Week 3!

Would you like to see additional analysis based on this week’s market activity? Let us know!

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

GAWLOO: Ang Lugawang May Sarap ng Southeast Asia — Gawa ng Batangueñong Galing Abroad

Kung taga-Rosario, Batangas ka at nag-crave ka ng lugaw na may level-up na twist—eto na ang sagot sa panalangin ng sikmura mo: GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience.

GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience facade

📍 Matatagpuan sa V. Escaño St., Brgy. C, Rosario Batangas, si GAWLOO ay hindi lang basta kainan — isa siyang kwento ng pangarap, passion, at panlasang umikot sa Asia.

GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience Dine-In

Ang may-ari, si Jay Ubana, ay isang Batangueñong cook na nagtrabaho sa Singapore at Dubai ng 12 taon. Sa dami ng napuntahan niyang bansa—Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore—natutunan niyang i-appreciate ang iba't ibang bersyon ng congee. “Paborito talaga ng mga Pinoy ang lugaw,” wika ni Jay, “Kahit anong oras, kahit anong pakiramdam—masarap maglugaw.”

⭐ Lasa't Alaala sa Bawat Higop

Hindi lang basta lugaw, kundi southeast Asian-inspired congee na may toppings na mala-ulam sa sarap:

GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience facade

🍲 Seafood Gawloo at Lechon Gawloo — ang kanilang best-sellers na puwedeng pang-breakfast o pang-dinner.

🍛 Mix & Match Toppings: Tuwalya, Chicharon Bulaklak, Atay, Chicken, Fried Tokwa at iba pa.

🍗 Rice Meals tulad ng Chao Fan with Pork Siomai, Chicharon Bulaklak, o Lechon Kawali — swak sa mga ayaw ng sabaw pero gusto pa rin ng siksik sa lasa.

🧋 Drinks? May Black Gulaman at Lychee para pampawi ng uhaw habang humihigop ka ng mainit-init na lugaw.

💸 Presyo na Kayang-Kaya

Hindi mo kailangang bumyahe pa sa abroad para matikman ang ganitong congee—₱80 lang ang Small Bowl na may 1 Topping, at kung mas gutom ka, may Large Bowl for ₱90. Pwede ka ring magpa-top up ng 2, 3 o 4 na toppings para sa ultimate lugaw overload!

🤳 Para sa mga G na umorder online

Pwede kang magpa-deliver! Text o tawag lang sa 09397785658. Hanapin lang ang GAWLOO sa Facebook para sa menu at updates.

Sa totoo lang, sa bawat higop ng lugaw sa GAWLOO, parang may yumayakap sa’yo—maalala mo si Nanay o si Lola na nagluluto ng lugaw tuwing masama ang pakiramdam mo. Ngayon, kahit wala si Nanay sa tabi mo, may GAWLOO ka sa Rosario.

Supportahan natin ang lokal! Tikman ang lugaw na may kwento. Tikman ang GAWLOO.

Pages

Saturday, January 18, 2025

Contents:

Portfolio Performance Overview (January 15 to 17, 2025)

Portfolio Allocation & Trading Strategy

Key Lessons from Week 3 & BETA's Role in Refining Our Strategy

1. The Importance of Stop-Loss Adjustments in Live Trading

2. Tactical Entries & Exits: Balancing Strategy with Transaction Costs

Key Takeaways & Next Steps for BETA

Conclusion

Related Readings

Contents:

What is BETA?

Key Features of the BETA Tracker:

Why Follow the BETA Tracker?

Related Readings

Thursday, January 16, 2025

Contents:

Applying the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan to the Daily Chart

Step 1: State

Step 2: Position and Location

Step 3: Assess Power Bars

Step 4: Entry Strategy (Simplifying Tactical Actions)

Step 5: Place and Monitor Stop Loss

Step 6: Color Change (Trend Confirmation Before Action)

Step 7: Profit Taking (Strategic Exits Based on Daily Chart)

Step 8: Re-entry (Avoiding Frequent Trading)

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

Step 10: Counter-Trend Entries (Only for Strong Reversals)

Week 4 (January 20-24, 2025) Trading Plan

Scenario 1: URC Stabilizes Above Php 67.00

Scenario 2: URC Drops Below Php 67.00 Without Reversal

Scenario 3: URC Breaks Above Php 71.50

Key Adjustments for the BETA Account

Final Thoughts

Related Readings

Contents:

Applying the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan

Step 1: State

Step 2: Position and Location

Step 3: Assess Power Bars

Step 4: Entry

Step 5: Place and Monitor Stop Loss

Step 6: Color Change

Step 7: Profit Take (with Tactical Exits)

Step 8: Re-entry

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

Step 10: Counter-Trend Entries

Lessons Learned

Strict Stop-Loss Execution Is Essential

Action Plan for the BETA Account

Related Readings

Summary of Trading Activity

Cost Implications and Capital Erosion Analysis

Transaction Costs Impact

Over-Trading

Capital Erosion from Unrealized Efficiency

Key Observations and Lessons Learned

Frequent Re-Entries Add Little Value

Inefficient Tactical Re-Entry

Poor Reward-to-Cost Ratio

Strict Stop-Loss Execution Is Essential

Recommendations for Improvement

1. Focus on Fewer, High-Probability Trades

2. Widen Tactical Price Targets

3. Use Stop-Losses Strategically

4. Prioritize Cost Efficiency

5. Analyze Market Context Before Re-Entry

Conclusion

Moving Forward:

Related Readings

Contents:

Our Strictly Technical Approach

TRFM’s Fundamental Valuation as a Benchmark

Coincidental Alignment: Php 68.00 and Php 67.31

Executing Our Trading Plan

Key Takeaways

Final Thought

Related Readings

GAWLOO: Ang Lugawang May Sarap ng Southeast Asia — Gawa ng Batangueñong Galing Abroad